Prospect Info: 17-18 Blues Top Prospect #15
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Vincenzo Arelliti
He Can't Play Center
I'm still not clear on why people are voting for Toropchenko over Stevens, Musil, Mikkola, etc. It really makes no sense to me that a 4th rounder from a month ago goes in front of some of these guys. I was at prospect camp, too, and he was decent enough. But he hasn't done anything to indicate that he should be higher than a 4th. I don't think anyone on these boards has even watched him play other than highlights. To me this is the epitome of the "shiny new toy" effect. Nolans, for example, has done nothing but improve every year since his draft and was one of the clear best at the prospect camp.
I understand some people just value prospects differently than others, and it's fine. I just can't get behind this one.
I understand some people just value prospects differently than others, and it's fine. I just can't get behind this one.
bluesfan94
Registered User
I think it's kind of a joke how far it looks like Lindbohm is falling. This is a guy who, while he may only be a bottom pairing defender, has at least shown that he can play in the NHL and not look bad. And he's badly losing to a guy who was just drafted in the 4th round and most people really have never even seen play?
OK then. I'm sure you guys have such logical reasons for this. We can talk about regression or whatever but Lindbohm to me is still pretty clearly a top 15 prospect right now.
OK then. I'm sure you guys have such logical reasons for this. We can talk about regression or whatever but Lindbohm to me is still pretty clearly a top 15 prospect right now.
bluesfan94
Registered User
Lindbohm, to me, tops out as a 7th defenseman. While he looked good a couple years ago, he didn't last year. In fact, he looked worse than he had. Not look bad is generous. He's show that he's capable of being an injury replacement in the NHL and not much more IMO.
Toropchenko, on the other hand, has a much higher ceiling. While his hands aren't great, I think that's something you can fix more with practice. On the other hand, his drive to the net, size, and speed combo you can't really teach.
If I had to keep one, I'd rather Toropchenko. Also, I appreciate that he was a 4th round pick, but let's not act like Lindbohm has a fantastic draft pedigree himself
Toropchenko, on the other hand, has a much higher ceiling. While his hands aren't great, I think that's something you can fix more with practice. On the other hand, his drive to the net, size, and speed combo you can't really teach.
If I had to keep one, I'd rather Toropchenko. Also, I appreciate that he was a 4th round pick, but let's not act like Lindbohm has a fantastic draft pedigree himself
bluesfan94
Registered User
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2126873
For reference, here is last year's poll. Lindbohm was 9th and then had a disappointing year. He was passed by Mikkola, Blais, and Musil thus far and they are the three above him. That would bump him to 12th. Rattie is gone, so 11th. You're also adding Sanford, Thomas, Sundqvist, and Kostin. I don't really see an argument for him to be above any of those 7. So here is where he'd be
For reference, here is last year's poll. Lindbohm was 9th and then had a disappointing year. He was passed by Mikkola, Blais, and Musil thus far and they are the three above him. That would bump him to 12th. Rattie is gone, so 11th. You're also adding Sanford, Thomas, Sundqvist, and Kostin. I don't really see an argument for him to be above any of those 7. So here is where he'd be
No offense to you specifically, but Toropchenko, to me, is a good example of hfboards posters talking out of their *****. I'm skeptical that anyone here knows much about him outside of that mediocre 8 minute highlight video.
He's 187 pounds, he's not some monster, and he's not a speed demon in any of his clips either, there's nothing around the internet about him being some exceptional gym rat, it's just the general cliche everyone is restating from eachother like they do with so many other picks.
I think he's just a new mystery box, so people like voting for the "who knows" rather than the replacement level defenseman. If Toropchenko even plays as many NHL games as Lindbohm has already then he will be punching above his draft position. If you guys honestly think he was a steal last month for some reason, show the evidence why. Personally I still value him as a late 4th round pick, which is to say pretty much worthless.
Robb_K
Registered User
Just about ALL the remaining Blues' prospects are very iffy. I think Toropchenko has the best upside potential, so I give him a slight edge over Fitzpatrick, Binnington, who seem to have decent upside potential, but all the potential downfalls of young goaltenders, and Lindbohm, who proved he could play in The NHL, but has been, inconsistent, going backward instead of improving, and seems to have little upside.
I think that Toropchenko's offensive sense, ability to drive to the net, enjoying the physical game, goal scoring prowess on every level, so far, and the fact that puckhandling skills, passing and shooting skills can be improved through hard work give him the edge.
I think that Toropchenko's offensive sense, ability to drive to the net, enjoying the physical game, goal scoring prowess on every level, so far, and the fact that puckhandling skills, passing and shooting skills can be improved through hard work give him the edge.
bluesfan94
Registered User
People have seen him play at the prospect's camp, which, while not the same as a game, is a good place to evaluate. Plus, those highlight videos are still meaningful. While yes, he is 187 lbs, he's also 6'3 so you can imagine some growth as he gets older. Another positive sign is that he was drafted fourth in the CHL import draft so they must see something.
Plus, at this point, we're talking about our 15th best prospect.
What do you value Lindbohm at?
Robb_K
Registered User
He's 6 ft 3in. and 187 lb. But he's under 20. He'll fill out to at least 205 or 210. That, combined with a penchant for driving the net, not being afraid to go to the tough places, good offensive sense, good at putting the puck into the net at all levels he's played - all sounds very good to me. His skating is okay. He needs to work on puckhandling, passing and play without the puck. But, those are things that can be improved with hard work and coaching help. I haven't heard anything about him being lazy or uncoachable. All that beats out Lindbohm's recent regression and his history of inconsistency, and beats out the young goalies' usual risks, and most of the many deficiencies in the games of all the other Blues' prospects left to be voted upon.
Lots of good options here. I like Toropchenko's potential a lot, and I value that just a little more than I probably ought to. I like that Stevens and Fitzpatrick are both available here as well, and for my money that's how the next two polls should go.
Majorityof1
Registered User
You are totally right that people value the mystery box. You are wrong though because that is not an error or a bad thing. Schrodinger's cat is worth more than a cat on life support you know isn't going to make it. I'll admit I don't know much about Toro. He could be a great prospect, or he could be an absolute bust. A few different "experts" are calling him a steal and saying he has top 6 potential. That is worth more to me than what anyone else offers. I may know more about the other guys left on the list, but what I do know is almost all unimpressive.
Linbohm does not look impressive in the AHL. He was not one of the top D on the Wolves. In the games I saw, several other D (Dunn, Butler, Schmaltz) were getting more minutes and more important usage. Butler is a great measuring stick. He is right under the line between AHL and NHL ability. If he is beating you out for important minutes, you are not NHL quality. As Lindbohm is 24 and has a wealth of pro experience, I don't expect him to suddenly get better.
Nolan Stevens is a guy who was past over twice before being a 5th round pick. How has he "improve(d) every year since his draft" when he has played 17 games since being drafted 5th a year ago? The reason he looked better than 18-19 year olds at prospect camp is that he is 21 years old already. He's a grinder. His upside, which at this point isn't very likely, is as a 4th liner. Musil is much further along, has more high-end skill and is younger.
Kaspick is a little more of an unknown. He has not gotten a ton of PT buried behind some good centers on the Wheat Kings before this past year. This last year, he got more ice time, and his stats improved, but not crazily so. I could see someone picking him, but he reads grinder to me from what I have seen/read. I value the mystery box over that.
I don't disagree with most of what you said, especially the fact that Toropchenko likely has some of that top-6 scoring punch these other 3 guys probably don't.
But I do think you're underrating Stevens a little bit here. Yes, he's older, yes he was passed over in the draft, but he's a quality player very much in the same vein as Musil. I think the difference between the two players is very small, and it's very possible that Stevens is the better of the two. Stevens is a coach's kid, Musil also has excellent hockey bloodlines. For me, it's really a tossup between the two right now. Musil obviously has a head start, and I'm sad Stevens didn't get a full season to show us what he could do last year. But he'll be captain of Northeastern next season, and if he can stay healthy, he should be able to do some damage (albeit without his brother or ZAR).
Memento
Future Authoress.
Why does it matter that Stevens was past over twice? He's proven to be a point-per-game player in the NCAA since then. "He has improved every year since his first eligible draft year" would have been a better way for me to word it. He was first eligible in the 2014 draft but went undrafted after a poor season in the USDP. He went undrafted again in 2015 after a decent freshman year. He broke out his sophomore year and has proven to be over a point-per-game player since. Toropchenko, on the other hand, has proven nothing since being drafted in the 4th round this year.
You say Torop has top-6 potential so you vote for him. But so does Stevens. The only difference is Stevens is much closer to reaching that point. He's a couple years ahead in development and is still on track. I think that if we drafted him back in 2014 in a later round, we'd all be incredibly happy with his progress, and he'd be much higher on our rankings. Possibly even top 10.
To your Schrodinger's cat analogy, I would rather have a cat that was on life support, but battled back for two years to become promisingly healthy cat.
Majorityof1
Registered User
Is ppg that impressive in college? Over 50 kids did it last year (I got bored counting them all and stopped at 50). Nolan's brother was almost a PPG and nobody drafted him. Most of the most promising hockey players don't come from college, so being one of the barely top 50 college players isn't saying much. We may disagree with our analyses of his game, but it is not at all impressive to me. That's fine. I could be wrong. But I would be very surprised if he became anything other than a 4th line mucker. The point was that not knowing about Toro does not make Stevens better if we aren't all that impressed with Stevens.
I referenced not being drafted twice to show he had not done enough to be considered a worthwhile draft pick until last year. At that time, he was drafted 5th. Since then he was injured and did not play much at all the following year. So he has not had the opportunity to show he is worth more than the 5th round pick. People are knocking Toro as only a 4th who has not shown he is worth more. The same can be said about Stevens, only a 5th who has not shown he is more. Also, he is 2 years older than others drafted the same year, hence why he may have seemed more polished at camp.
I see a kid who is well-coached, a hard-worker and has good-size strength for that level. He protects the puck well but he scores through effort and hockey sense. He is working his butt off to score in college. When the size, speed, and skill increases as he goes to higher levels, I don't see another notch for his game. Despite what parents tell you, hard work will not take you every where in life. You need skill to play at the highest level. The guys who are getting by in the NHL on hard-work, have high-end skill compared to the average college/junior/minor-league player. I don't see even that level of skill from Stevens. Again, I could be wrong, but that is why I voted Toro.
EastonBlues22
Registered User
Upside for all these guys is pretty speculative at this point. You just pick the one with the combination of positives that appeals to you the most and/or negatives that you dislike the least.
Lindbohm is the obvious exception in the sense that there's relatively little left to speculate about. With him it's all about how you value his potential organizational utility as a depth player versus whatever upside you think the rest of the prospects have.
It also feels like a good time to start considering Fitzpatrick and Opilka. If you think either one could be a starting goaltender, that's probably a higher ceiling in terms of potential in-game impact than anyone else left on this list.
Lindbohm is the obvious exception in the sense that there's relatively little left to speculate about. With him it's all about how you value his potential organizational utility as a depth player versus whatever upside you think the rest of the prospects have.
It also feels like a good time to start considering Fitzpatrick and Opilka. If you think either one could be a starting goaltender, that's probably a higher ceiling in terms of potential in-game impact than anyone else left on this list.
Vincenzo Arelliti
He Can't Play Center
Binnington and Fitzpatrick seem like their most realisitic ceiling is a backup, but because they are goalies they could go anywhere. I have them listed after the Toropchenko-Mikkola-Lindbohm tier, but at this point it's really just a bunch of names.
LetsGoBLUES91
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- Jan 8, 2013
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