Prospect Info: 17-18 Blues Top Prospect #14

[Memento]

Fitzpatrick is a guy who, many years down the line, we'll all be wondering how we had him ranked so low this year.

Goalies are extremely hard to evaluate, though. Fitzpatrick might end up being the best of these prospects or he could bust completely.

 

[STL fan in MN]

For me its Poganski. Highly underrated.

I just don't see it in Poganski. Solid depth/3rd line college player and maybe he can be like a Chris Porter that goes from role college player to role NHLer but I just don't see it with Poganski.

 

[Robb_K]

Goalies are extremely hard to evaluate, though. Fitzpatrick might end up being the best of these prospects or he could bust completely.

Exactly. Goaltending success is almost more related to the mental aspects of the position than the physical talents and skills, and training the player has had. Some players are big, fast and know good positioning, and have played super at times. But they fail to become a solid NHL goalie because they cannot concentrate enough ALL the time, to play on a high level consistently. Some of such players can be NHL backups. Others in the "weak mental resilience group", can't even become regular NHL backups, because they choke when in the spotlight (really needed) when the #1 goalie is injured, putting a lot of pressure on them to play many games in succession, and play at a high level during a playoff run or in the playoffs.

So, no matter how super a prospect goalie's size, skills and peak playing has been, we can never be sure that such a player will be a solid, regular NHL performer, until he proves that he can, with 3-4 consecutive years of playing mostly at a high level. EVEN after that, a goalie's mental game could possibly plummet to the gutter, and his NHL career could be over quickly without previous warning. The mental component of the goaltenders' game is quite arbitrary and precarious.

 

[KirkOut]

I just don't see it in Poganski. Solid depth/3rd line college player and maybe he can be like a Chris Porter that goes from role college player to role NHLer but I just don't see it with Poganski.

TBH I don't see a big difference between Poganski and Musil right now. But Musil already got voted in and Poganski has gotten less than a handful of votes total so I must be mis-evaluating

 

[Robb_K]

TBH I don't see a big difference between Poganski and Musil right now. But Musil already got voted in and Poganski has gotten less than a handful of votes total so I must be mis-evaluating

Based on what little I've seen of their play and read about them, I'd guess that Musil is the better all-around player, with more overall skills which are somewhat more likely to be transferable to The NHL, and he has performed a little better so far (performance level related to level of play in his league).

Maybe that can be argued. But that's my impression. I admit that it is difficult to compare statistics between The CHL and 1st Tier US College Hockey, as Juniors play significantly higher number of games.

But, to me, Musil is willing to go to the tough areas, has a decent physical game, and plays well without the puck, has decent offensive sense, has a decent shot, and seems, over the last 2 seasons, to have developed a decent scoring touch. He plays defence quite well, as well. Musil's game is extremely well rounded, although he is not terrific at any one skill. Poganski is not as good a skater as Musil, from what I've seen, and, I think Musil also is better on defence and also seems to have better offense sense. Although, I admit I've only seen Poganski in highlights, other than one UND game a couple years ago.

I also think that Musil will be able to play 4th, and possibly, 3rd Line centre in The NHL. And that, alone will make him more valuable to The Blues than Poganski being a 4th Line, and possible 3rd Line(but I don't see that coming) winger.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

It isn't just that Musil developed a scoring touch, there were some weeks last season where he was hands down our best performing prospect, even in the midst of Kyrou's scoring streak. Maybe that's easier to do as a 19 year old playing against 17 and 18 year olds, but regardless, I came away very impressed with him both on the scoresheet and in my couple of viewings. He's big, he's a nasty brand of physical, a great net-front presence, he has a decent shot, and his skating is good enough to lead breakouts. There's a reason that coach Sutter named him captain last year. And then, he comes in to Chicago and was, imo, the MVP of the opening series, potting 5 points in 6 games (which were numbers 2-8 of his pro career). I watch Musil and I see a lot of Reaves' game last year, except that Musil's game is already in that style and he doesn't really have to make a ton of adjustments or re-learn the game, just develop. With that in mind, I can very easily see Musil being a cornerstone 4th line player like Reaves was. I'm excited about him.

For Poganski, all of those things might also be true, but like I said, out of sight out of mind. I don't think we have a Parayko situation on our hands where he'll come in next year and be a diamond in the rough. I do think that he'll be on par with Mackenzie MacEachern, in which case it's nothing to get too excited about. MacMac was a slightly better player than Pogs at the same age, and his first year in the pros was just a little better than bad.

So that's the difference between the two/three players for me.

 

[Robb_K]

It isn't just that Musil developed a scoring touch, there were some weeks last season where he was hands down our best performing prospect, even in the midst of Kyrou's scoring streak. Maybe that's easier to do as a 19 year old playing against 17 and 18 year olds, but regardless, I came away very impressed with him both on the scoresheet and in my couple of viewings. He's big, he's a nasty brand of physical, a great net-front presence, he has a decent shot, and his skating is good enough to lead breakouts. There's a reason that coach Sutter named him captain last year. And then, he comes in to Chicago and was, imo, the MVP of the opening series, potting 5 points in 6 games (which were numbers 2-8 of his pro career). I watch Musil and I see a lot of Reaves' game last year, except that Musil's game is already in that style and he doesn't really have to make a ton of adjustments or re-learn the game, just develop. With that in mind, I can very easily see Musil being a cornerstone 4th line player like Reaves was. I'm excited about him.

For Poganski, all of those things might also be true, but like I said, out of sight out of mind. I don't think we have a Parayko situation on our hands where he'll come in next year and be a diamond in the rough. I do think that he'll be on par with Mackenzie MacEachern, in which case it's nothing to get too excited about. MacMac was a slightly better player than Pogs at the same age, and his first year in the pros was just a little better than bad.

So that's the difference between the two/three players for me.

Maybe he'll be on a par with MacEachern when he first arrives. I don't think either is a good bet to become a regular in The NHL. But, I think Poganski has a slightly better chance. I think Musil is a lock to be, at least, a solid 4th Line player. But, I have hopes that he'll become a regular 3rd Line player in The NHL at his peak. And I hope that will be at the centre position.

 

[KirkOut]

That's fair enough. I didn't get to watch the Wolves playoffs to see Musil elevating his game, so that's probably a gal in my analysis

 

[Blanick]

I actually put Toropchenko and Mikkola together in the same tier of prospects. I think the reason I favor Toropchenko is because of his showing at the prospect camp. On the first day I attended the camp I had actually forgot about him. When I first saw his name on the ice I actually had to google his name to remember we just drafted him this year. By the end of the camp he was a player that was drawing a considerable amount of my attention. That is a big jump to go from a particular unknown to one of the few standouts.

Yes I know his hands leave a lot to be desired but that is something that can be worked on. He skates very well for a big man and the most important thing for me is he has a mindset to go to the net. He works hard along the boards and drives the puck to the goal line, in a lot of ways he reminds me of David Backes in that way. In the NHL he is never going to be a sniper he is going to be the guy who scores his goals by going to the dangerous areas and banging in rebounds or tips which is one of his current strengths.

I know this is a lot of tire pumping for a 4th round pick but as a lot of post scouting reports have stated that if not for the Russian factor he could have been a late 2nd round pick. You can't tell me the Russian factor isn't real either, need I remind you we drafted Kostin at 31 and Tarasenko at 16.

Based on my own experience watching him at prospect camp, video and scouting reports I am really starting to think we might have another steal in this kid.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I actually put Toropchenko and Mikkola together in the same tier of prospects. I think the reason I favor Toropchenko is because of his showing at the prospect camp. On the first day I attended the camp I had actually forgot about him. When I first saw his name on the ice I actually had to google his name to remember we just drafted him this year. By the end of the camp he was a player that was drawing a considerable amount of my attention. That is a big jump to go from a particular unknown to one of the few standouts.

Yes I know his hands leave a lot to be desired but that is something that can be worked on. He skates very well for a big man and the most important thing for me is he has a mindset to go to the net. He works hard along the boards and drives the puck to the goal line, in a lot of ways he reminds me of David Backes in that way. In the NHL he is never going to be a sniper he is going to be the guy who scores his goals by going to the dangerous areas and banging in rebounds or tips which is one of his current strengths.

I know this is a lot of tire pumping for a 4th round pick but as a lot of post scouting reports have stated that if not for the Russian factor he could have been a late 2nd round pick. You can't tell me the Russian factor isn't real either, need I remind you we drafted Kostin at 31 and Tarasenko at 16.

Based on my own experience watching him at prospect camp, video and scouting reports I am really starting to think we might have another steal in this kid.

This is fair.

I didn't have the opportunity to go to Prospects Camp so I can't say I've seen much of the guy other than some highlights. He could really skyrocket up the charts if he does well in Guelph this season.

 

[Stealth JD]

I like Stevens after Mikkola. Think he's a sleeper who could surprise at NHL camp in another year. He's had a really nice couple of years in Hockey-East.

 

[Ranksu]

Just have question is there any similaraties of Rattie and Blais career curve? Are they comparable?

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Guelph could end up being pretty good next year too. Between Bertuzzi and Toropchenko, they're adding two pretty good forwards to their group. The rest of their draft pool seems to be high quality as well. Not to mention that Ratcliffe and Schnarr will both be back. Hopefully it's a good environment for Toro

 

[Ranksu]

I like Stevens after Mikkola. Think he's a sleeper who could surprise at NHL camp in another year. He's had a really nice couple of years in Hockey-East.

He really have break in year, not in point wise, but generally overall game improve and defense. I think that tells alot if majority of forwards hates or are bit afraid to play against him.

This next season in Tappara is huge. Everybody has eye on him. We have seen what caliber player he's, now need to see can he improve his offensive game + transition game. I'm happy without offensive skills, so that's only going to + mark on him if he developes on that part before heading NHL.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Guelph could end up being pretty good next year too. Between Bertuzzi and Toropchenko, they're adding two pretty good forwards to their group. The rest of their draft pool seems to be high quality as well. Not to mention that Ratcliffe and Schnarr will both be back. Hopefully it's a good environment for Toro

Guelph also has Ryan Merkley, last year's 1st overall pick. Check out this assist from him today. The subtle moves to gain space and open up lanes are impressive...especially for a kid that's isn't even 17 yet.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Just have question is there any similaraties of Rattie and Blais career curve? Are they comparable?

Career curve, not at all. Rattie was a phenom in juniors, and was the star of a high-scoring Portland team. He was the #2 overall draft pick in the Bantam draft after posting 131 points in 33 AMBHL games. He was always unquestionably one of the most prolific scorers in his draft class. Blais was undersized and didn't even get called up to the QMJHL from midget hockey until halfway through his draft year. His D1 and D2 years were great, and he's been on a tear ever since. So Rattie has always been on top, whereas Blais' development curve has been upward.

In terms of skill sets, I would say that yes they're probably comparable. Both are good enough offensively to perform well in the AHL, and both will probably get some starts in the NHL, but I wouldn't be super surprised to see both become primarily AHLers.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Only about 60 votes, but it's been awhile since there's been any significant movement and it doesn't seem like any further waiting is likely to be productive in terms of voting outcome or conversation.

New poll is up.

Closed.