Confirmed with Link: #156 traded to Toronto for 2019 6th Rounder

[TheBarnIsElectric]

It's been shown that you can't possibly know that. I'm done here if all we are going to do is repeat the same logical fallacy over and over.

So your argument is that Columbus was willing to trade a 5th for 159, but wouldnt have done so for 156? Got it. Yes, we are done.

 

[Icicle]

Look. If you just dont care about the value of late picks because the statistical hit rate is only slightly different, that is fine. But to act like people wanting a higher pick than we got, when that higher return was standard and actually available, are "irrational," is ridiculous and insulting.

Just because statistically two picks are likely to produce similar results across all GM's, eras, and contexts doesn't mean that our GM yesterday was wise to take a lower pick when higher picks were available for the same price. You are welcome to that opinion, but dont insult my intelligence.

Honest question, if you were a GM, would you only scout the top rounds? Why not use some public list and just go on autodraft? Would save lots of time and money. If you dont think late picks matter enough to try for the best result, why bother thinking about it? Why not trade all your picks for 7ths to build good will with the other "chump" GMs. Actually, forget good will, why not do it for no reason at all!!

Botterill was hounded for not trading away more 5th vand 6th round picks for mid-season help that'd improve the team from 30th to 29th. But instead of wasting the pick on nothing he saw as worthwhile, pushing it back another year instead somehow is an insult to you?

yeah, Botterill gets some crazy hate around here for not being the autist Murray was. Almost as if people feel the need to get defensive protecting him. I wonder why...

 

[stokes84]

So your argument is that Columbus was willing to trade a 5th for 159, but wouldnt have done so for 156? Got it. Yes, we are done.

If they had two players left on their board, and one of them got picked, then yes. This really isn't hard.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

You seem quite worked up over something not directed at you. I didn't quote you and unless you're a big Murray defender that I'm not aware of, that post isn't about you.

No one, Murray supporter or otherwise, is arguing that 6th round picks are super valuable. Stop getting so worked up about it.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

If they had two players left on their board, and one of them got picked, then yes. This really isn't hard.

That doesnt make sense. If they were concerned about getting a guy and were will to pay the price, why wouldn't they have wanted 156?

 

[stokes84]

That doesnt make sense. If they were concerned about getting a guy and were will to pay the price, why wouldn't they have wanted 156?

Because they are waiting to see if they fall. If you have two players left, you don't have to move to get your guy.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

Because they are waiting to see if they fall. If you have two players left, you don't have to move to get your guy.

You dont know this either. They werent scheduled to pick for another 14 picks and they kept that pick. More likely that they wanted to get more than one of their guys and would have been willing at 156.

 

[Sabretooth]

Fun factoid: last year the kings traded their 6th to the islanders for their 6th this year. Noth picks ended up at 165. I guess it was stupid for the kings tho since 165 in 2017 was worth more than 165 in 2018. I know I'll be eagerly following the careers of Johan Sodergran and Arnaud Durandeau. GMs jobs may be on the line here.

 

[stokes84]

You dont know this either. They werent scheduled to pick for another 14 picks and they kept that pick. More likely that they wanted to get more than one of their guys and would have been willing at 156.

Arguing it as a fact that the 5th round pick would have been available to Botterill is a logical fallacy. And therefore, this entire debate is stupid.

 

[haseoke39]

Or, just more practically, maybe the fact that each round now takes an hour makes it impossible to call 30 teams between the time you know what will be left on the board and when you have to pick or move it. I agree it would have been nicer to get the fifth, but between Columbus actually not being ready to deal and potentially just the time constraints, it's neither surprising nor damning if they didn't get it done. And it's still virtually indifferent on value.

 

[kp2575]

The reaction to this trade is ridiculous. In his post draft scrum he said they felt like some players they wanted were going to still be there in the 7th. Instead of reaching to take someone in the 6th that they probably weren’t bowled over by they got their 9th draft pick for next draft and an asset they can use.

Did he get maximum value? Probably not. But they still have an asset they can use in a few ways going forward which isn’t a bad thing.

 

[Buff15Sabres]

6th rounders are pretty much worthless, but this is poor asset management. It should have been pretty easy to get a 5th round pick for #156 (as is evidenced by #159 going for a 5th). Wasting assets/losing trades is part of what's led to the Sabres being such a mess in recent years.

Again, these picks are inconsequential, but I am concerned that our GM "lost" the trade so badly.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

Arguing it as a fact that the 5th round pick would have been available to Botterill is a logical fallacy. And therefore, this entire debate is stupid.

You're right. We weren't in the room and no one asked them after the fact, so we dont know for sure, but the evidence available supports my position.

But even if they couldnt get a 5th like multiple other teams after them did, they didn't have to make the trade they did.

 

[Sabre the Win]

You literally do not know that the 5th was available when we traded.

Pot meet kettle.

If they had two players left on their board, and one of them got picked, then yes. This really isn't hard.

Because they are waiting to see if they fall. If you have two players left, you don't have to move to get your guy.

 

[joshjull]

No one, Murray supporter or otherwise, is arguing that 6th round picks are super valuable. Stop getting so worked up about it.

Worked up? oh boy

1) No one is arguing on either side of this discussion that 6th rounders are super valuable.

2) I'm laughing at the idea that posters who have or even still defend Murray wasting far more valuable things in trades being bent out of shape over this trade. Thats not making an equivalence in the value which you bizarrely think I'm doing.

 

[Sabretooth]

It would have been nice if botts could have got the 5th from cbj or the 2 6ths the caps gave to Vancouver instead of feeling like we did our big rival a favor tho... but not losing any sleep here

 

[stokes84]

Pot meet kettle.

You're embarrassing yourself.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

I'll reiterate here before I bow out, this is NOT a huge deal to me. Tbh, I'm bothered more by the arguments dismissing all criticism of it than I am the move itself. That seems like a very good reason to not open this thread again...

 

[Sabre the Win]

You're embarrassing yourself.

Oh really? You should do a double take because you are arguing against value with a stance that we don't know if the pick was available. None of us are saying that the pick was available, we are saying Botts didnt get proper value for the pick. Than you go onto defend the pick some more by presenting us scenarios like their fact when you simply don't know and thats how you been defending your stance with "You simply dont know".

Pot meet Kettle.

 

[Jame]

This thread is exactly what I expected it would be

 

[Techno Allah]

Botterill better hope none of those 6th round picks this year turn into decent NHLers. I know there's players i would have taken there, but unfortunately my superior drafting skills go wasted on my couch

 

[Der Jaeger]

This thread is the Seinfeld thread. It's a thread about nothing.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

6 pages to talk about a pick that has a 1% chance of making the NHL.

 

[haseoke39]

I'll reiterate here before I bow out, this is NOT a huge deal to me. Tbh, I'm bothered more by the arguments dismissing all criticism of it than I am the move itself. That seems like a very good reason to not open this thread again...

I'm not hostile to the idea that it was a mistake. I just think it's equally as likely to be a mistake as just picking the next kid on some published list. In other words, hard for us to know. A good topic for scouts to debate.
I am hostile to the idea that it was categorically a mistake because 170ish is a higher number that 156. That's just bad reductionism I think.

 

[Hellinator]

Weird arguments for Bots on this one. I like Bots but this "move" was a head scratch-er. Everyone knows that draft picks this year are more valuable then next years. A 6th this year is worth a 5th next year easy. Then we have the fact that we had the first pick in the 6th which can be translated to late 5th anyways. Doesn't being in the top 150's next year where a player you like "falls" to you better odds than picks 180+. It seemed to have an impact this year since we didn't draft anyone in the 6th but drafted someone in the 5th round. We clearly lost value no matter how small you think it is.