Confirmed with Link: #156 traded to Toronto for 2019 6th Rounder

[Chad Thundercock]

I'd love the breakdown on how this trade happened... who called who, etc...

 

[Gabrielor]

I'm totally ok with referring to Botts as Mimsy.

 

[cybresabre]

So your argument is that Columbus was willing to trade a 5th for 159, but wouldnt have done so for 156? Got it. Yes, we are done.

They wanted to keep the 5th out of the division.

 

[Jame]

I view the move based on the following:

1. Botts states there were a couple guys they felt they could get later (7th).... so why not get two of them? If the difference between 5-7th rounders is statistically insignificant... then what was the point of stating you could get 1 later?

2. Look at our goalie pipeline....and then look and see 7 goalies taken in the 6th.

This move doesn’t matter in the big picture... it just reflects on Botts... it was amateurish at best.

 

[brian_griffin]

It makes me feel good. They didn't waste an asset on someone they didn't want, and instead were able to push it down the road. Shrewd.

Well, they drafted a player later, and they probably had a couple other players on their list, so it's really kind of hard to buy that reasoning.

Really? Complaining about a 6th round pick? Go complain about the 2014 draft, where Murray walked in with 6 top 74 picks, 4 top 50 picks and will end up with Sam Reinhart. And the longshot chance Olofsson becomes a real NHLer and not some Linus Omark tweener.

At least Botterill can draft outside the #2 overall pick. He made the pick of the draft last year and gets hated on because he didnt trade 34 assets for player X.

I'm surprised someone didnt get angry at Botterill for showing class and respect when announcing the pick. If Murray was here he'd walk up and go say " Buffalo takes Dahlin. " and the people who are honestly crying and complaining about a 6th round pick when we havent drafted a top 6 forward or top 4 D outside the first in 15 years would be applauding Murray on how cool he is and hip for drinking beer and being an abrasive jerk who has no manners or social skills.

Nothing Murray did, good or bad, has any bearing on Botterill doing his job. Also, hypothetically, Botterill could have cured cancer on Wednesday before the draft. Doesn't change the fact the value was upside down on this trade.

You do get that the value of a pick comes from the probability it will produce an NHLer. If there is no practical difference in that probability then there is no difference in the value. If you recall you agreed with that in a previous response. I'm amazed this is even being disputed.

If I'm arguing vociferously about anything its the ignorance over pick values.

Now you're being petulant.

I haven't been praising him over this trade. I think its a nothing burger move thats neither good nor bad.

Appreciate your post on the statistics of NHL success, etc., for the various late-round tiers of picks. While value does come from the historical pick success, only a portion of the value comes there. Another portion of the value is what another club will pay for the pick. Buyer determines value. For example, a team without a draft pick in a couple consecutive rounds, might pay premium to move up to get a pick. Similarly, if a team covets a player, they'll pay premium, regardless of the "historical statistics" because they feel their target is an exception to the rule.

All in all, this trade is likely as nothing burger, as you note. And clearly worse moves have been made in the Sabres recent past. It just looks a little funny...

Botterill was hounded for not trading away more 5th vand 6th round picks for mid-season help that'd improve the team from 30th to 29th. But instead of wasting the pick on nothing he saw as worthwhile, pushing it back another year instead somehow is an insult to you?

yeah, Botterill gets some crazy hate around here for not being the autist Murray was. Almost as if people feel the need to get defensive protecting him. I wonder why...

Drop the Murray references, and your argument is possibly reasonable. Adding a pick next year to make an in-season-acquisition for another Scott Wilson is a reasonable argument / strategy.

6 pages to talk about a pick that has a 1% chance of making the NHL.

I thought @joshjull's stats said ~3%...

Weird arguments for Bots on this one. I like Bots but this "move" was a head scratch-er. Everyone knows that draft picks this year are more valuable then next years. A 6th this year is worth a 5th next year easy. Then we have the fact that we had the first pick in the 6th which can be translated to late 5th anyways. Doesn't being in the top 150's next year where a player you like "falls" to you better odds than picks 180+. It seemed to have an impact this year since we didn't draft anyone in the 6th but drafted someone in the 5th round. We clearly lost value no matter how small you think it is.

That's the way I see it.

I view the move based on the following:

1. Botts states there were a couple guys they felt they could get later (7th).... so why not get two of them? If the difference between 5-7th rounders is statistically insignificant... then what was the point of stating you could get 1 later?

2. Look at our goalie pipeline....and then look and see 7 goalies taken in the 6th.

This move doesn’t matter in the big picture... it just reflects on Botts... it was amateurish at best.

Yes, yes, yes.

Who approached whom? I assume TOR approached BUF. All the more reason to ask for more. If BUF approached TOR, it's an example of negotiating against yourself. Unless, of course, as was noted (by @Haseoke?) there's something else attached to this trade - a future deal? - or else something was owed from a prior deal which seems a HUGE stretch.

 

[HaNotsri]

The best thing that came out of this was Mimsy.
Why do you just give something away to THE LEAFS?
What were our scouts doing all year if we didn’t have anyone on our board that was worth a six rounder this year?

It won’t affect us long term but this decision reflects badly on our scouting staff as well as Botts.

 

[MayDay]

Can't wait for the Pick #156 tribute video on the Jumbotron, first time Toronto visits Buffalo this season.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I can't believe this is onto page 7

 

[cybresabre]

I imagine the Toronto celebration thread is at least 7 pages, though?
We need to draft the toughest idiot next year who will single fistedly wreak vengeance on the northern neighbor.

 

[Dingo44]

I imagine the Toronto celebration thread is at least 7 pages, though?
We need to draft the toughest idiot next year who will single fistedly wreak vengeance on the northern neighbor.

You kidding? They are already on page 12 of the "Man Did We Fleece the Sabres" thread where the discussion is centered around how the guy they picked with the pick they stole from us is a better prospect than Dahlin and will together with Tavares and Matthews lead to multiple Stanley Cups.

 

[Royal Thunder]

To me this is all about what their scouts thought of the board at the time. Seems clear to me that they had no one left on the board who they were excited about. They had a group of guys to pick from and they figured they could get most of them in the 7th, so they took a flier on one of them and used the 6th pick to add an asset going forward that they perceive to be higher in value than any player on the board. It's now an extra chip to use in a trade or maybe as part of a move up in next year's draft. I just think there's more to it than just looking at the number of the pick. Essentially you're choosing between the 3-4% chance of the pick becoming something or having an extra coin in your pocket that has more forward-based value.

 

[Hellinator]

We'll see in a few years.
Draftin Europe‏ had a 3rd round value on him

#156

Pontus Holmberg

Växjö Lakers HC / SHL - 18/19


Offensively skilled player with pretty good speed and exceptional hockey sense. Skilled at setting up plays, but could improve his shooting ability (EP 2018)

Father: Jörgen Holmberg
Ability to promptly set up his teammates.. has a knack for figuring out and exploiting the simpler play available, Draftin Europe 2018


156. MAPLE LEAFS: Pontus Holmberg F Smart pick. A skilled forward that had a great season. Smart, quick, creative and good at covering the puck. Top 9 fwd potential. #nhldraft2018


Steven Ellis‏ @StevenEllisNHL
Pontus Holmberg was one of Sweden's best U19 players this year. Not a bad late pick. #NHLDraft



Draftin Europe‏ @draftin_europe
Nice pick by the #Leafs to start the 6th Round. 2nd-time eligible Pontus Holmberg was one of the main sleepers in Europe for us. He comes with a full profile of over 700 words in our #2018DraftGuide

We feel he should have gone higher in this year’s draft even if eligible for the second time. When projecting his ranking overall in fact we gave him 3rd Round value, but that’s without taking into account draft strategies.. like, if the Leafs were comfortable he would have not gone before the 6th Round then they felt like securing the first pick of the 6th was probably going to be enough to grab him. Maybe some other team was playing the same game and got screwed.

He is expected to play LW with Vaxjo next season, but ideally we’d project him as a C long term.

 

[Paxon]

Buffalo wasn't going to select that player anyhow, so it hardly matters

 

[sabrebuild]

You kidding? They are already on page 12 of the "Man Did We Fleece the Sabres" thread where the discussion is centered around how the guy they picked with the pick they stole from us is a better prospect than Dahlin and will together with Tavares and Matthews lead to multiple Stanley Cups.

I’d be celebrating if I had the leafs management group for the last 4 years or so too.

 

[Samsonite23]

Not that I advocate it or anything, but could part of the reasoning behind this possibly be (in addition to not having a guy they really liked) Botterill doing Dubas a small favor that he will reciprocate in the future?

 

[Hellinator]

Buffalo wasn't going to select that player anyhow, so it hardly matters

Strawman argument
You're 100% right, they didn't select anyone. We will see in time who won the lousy trade and if we strengthened a division opponent though

 

[Moskau]

At the Maple Leafs draft table...
Babcock: "That Dahlin kid... that team might finally be going somewhere..."
Dubas: "Hold my Tim Hortons."