GDT: 11/19/17 | Colorado @ Detroit | 6:00PM EST

[Winger98]

Well, for one I think Daley makes it a little less ugly for us to trade Green at the TDL if we want to. It's easy to see Kronwall and/or Ericsson on LTIR, remove Green and Daley too and imagine our D... it's not pretty. If you want to tank, yeah it doesn't matter, but personally I'd hate to see Larkin and Mantha playing this well and being completely dragged down by a D including names like Renouf, Lashoff, and an XO-Jensen top pairing.
Gator and Helm help our forward depth and yeah, I think they make it easier for us to handle a Tatar/Nyquist trade. And when it comes to our forward group having some guys locked up long term is good considering it allows us to spend a TON of picks on d-men right now.

Yeah, none of those vets offer any sort of assurance for me should a real top guy go down with injury or was traded. The guy who makes Tatar easier to move isn't Helm or Gator, it's Athanasiou. And Mantha. And even Svechnikov and Rasmussen. We don't have a guy that makes losing Green easier. Our best bet for that would probably be a guy like Hronek, but we can't even give him a cup of coffee until someone gets hurt seriously enough for LTIR because we're capped out.

If you want to lock guys up long term, at least let it be a guy like Tatar or Nyquist who still routinely goes out and produces. Third line forwards can be grabbed all summer for either lower cap numbers, shorter term, or both. Look at Vanek who sat at home for how long this summer? Signed in Vancouver dirt cheap, and has put up a point every other game.

And this isn't saying we have to be $10 million under the cap. Be $4 million under, that's more than enough room to give you roster, trade, whatever move wiggle room. But we're not just spending to the cap, we're spending nearly $4 million over. And it's to fight for the privilege of being the 15th best team in the league. I'm just not seeing what Holland's spending ways is buying the Wings opportunity wise.

 

[TheOtherOne]

And yet looking at the Red Wings context -- the actual data -- there's virtually no difference in the quality of comp.
Over the last 3 years
Quality of Competition CF%
Tatar 49.94
Larkin 49.89
Athanasiou 49.96
Glendening 49.98
Zetterberg 50.02
Matha 50.12
Nielsen 50.22


Here's a contextual number worth considering
It's the "expected goals for/60" (team stat, not individual) based on the quality of your teammates and the expected goals against for (based on the quality of your teammates.)

Atanasiou
Actual GF/60 - 2.58
Expected GF/60 -- 2.22

Actual GA/60 -- 2.42
Expected GA/60 -- 2.36

So event wise, the Red Wings are FAR better at scoring goals than they should be with AA on the ice, and a little worse at keeping the puck out of the net.

It;s early so far this year. But the Red Wings are scoring 3.24 goals/60 when Athanasiou is on the ice.
The good thing is that his GA/60 is down to 1.83.

It's crazy to me that people see this stuff and brush it off. Yea yea maybe he looks a little lazy sometimes. Well I guess he somehow manages to look lazy and still outscore all the best players in the world.

Will he score at the same rate if you play him 30 min a night, of course he won't. But there are football fields between that and scratching him or wanting him off the team.

Outscoring your opponents is how you win. Even if you're only doing it against 3rd liners.

 

[Ezekial]

Outscoring your opponents is how you win. Even if you're only doing it against 3rd liners.

You need to do more than just try to score goals to outscore your opponent.

I don 't have many of the same complaints about AA through his first 11 games that I did last year. He seems to be taking on that part of his game, it's a good thing whether or not anyone thinks we should/could/would trade him for futures/an established player.

 

[Oddbob]

Who cares, though? What ultimate benefit is there in having Daley in over any of the other guys you named?

Without him, we would be in our own zone even more then we are now, and we would look at lot worse in our own end. For those who condone losing on purpose to get a better draft pick, then yeah he hurts that plan, because our other defenders would be even more exposed than now. Ouellet and Jensen have a hard time with the minutes they play now as does everyone but Green, so more minutes would expose them even more.

 

[Oddbob]

And yet looking at the Red Wings context -- the actual data -- there's virtually no difference in the quality of comp.
Over the last 3 years
Quality of Competition CF%
Tatar 49.94
Larkin 49.89
Athanasiou 49.96
Glendening 49.98
Zetterberg 50.02
Matha 50.12
Nielsen 50.22


Here's a contextual number worth considering
It's the "expected goals for/60" (team stat, not individual) based on the quality of your teammates and the expected goals against for (based on the quality of your teammates.)

Atanasiou
Actual GF/60 - 2.58
Expected GF/60 -- 2.22

Actual GA/60 -- 2.42
Expected GA/60 -- 2.36

So event wise, the Red Wings are FAR better at scoring goals than they should be with AA on the ice, and a little worse at keeping the puck out of the net.

It;s early so far this year. But the Red Wings are scoring 3.24 goals/60 when Athanasiou is on the ice.
The good thing is that his GA/60 is down to 1.83.

Quality of competition not including this year has been easier for AA. He was playing 9-13 minutes a night against others teams lower end lines and players, that is what I assume he meant by quality of competition. Tatar, Nyquist, etc., were playing against other teams top lines and defense because we have no one else outside Z at the top, so them getting points last year and beyond was tougher than AA's small sample size. This year is a different story, but using his whole career to say he has been one of the best in p/60 is just silly.

 

[Oddbob]

I guess an expansion team was the 10% that didn't want Helm for free.

No team wants either of those players with their ridiculous contracts.

You could get 90% of their production from some random prospect on an ELC.

You could not get Helm's speed and tenacity, and hard work and great forechecking from some random prospect, if that is what you think, than you don't understand that some players are on the team to play defense, and do the small non stat driven things well, which Helm does. Helm is overpaid by maybe 750,000 per year, and maybe not even that much and that is peanuts, with today's NHL contracts. With the overpaid savings we could sign a whole depth D or F, WOW, what a difference maker! Abdelkader is overpaid by 1.2 per year at least, for about 3 years too much, so complaints on him are justified in my opinion, but not on Helm. Having said that on Abdelkader though, he is actually playing pretty good right now.

The other thing in all this, is for tanking people (not me), we aren't competing right now anyways, and won't be for 3 or more years, most of these "bad" contracts will be over or extremely short by then. And for those saying, well not if we keep adding more to that, but last year we both sold off UFA's for draft picks and Daley was the only free agent of note signed and he has a perfectly reasonable contract for what he brings.

 

[Ezekial]

Sorry, I honestly thought you were being sarcastic in your first reply. My mistake.

Ward is playing well right now, and Darling isn't really that bad. He's not great, but .909 is like 20th among goalies with 10 or more starts. Up front, they kinda did go out and get that vet in Justin Williams.

On the flip side, if they hadn't managed their cap they wouldn't have had room to absorb Brian Bickell's salary. Along with Tervainen's, Kruger's, and van Riemsdyk's as they benefited from the Hawk's having to dump salary left and right.

By not keeping a bunch of vets and capping themselves out while their club was clearly sliding, they had themselves into position to acquire a number of guys who are playing roles in their resurgence - and putting them into position where signing the right vet or two could vault them into contention in the near future.

I'm not trying to justify our current numbers or the terms KH has given out. I was really high on Darling in Chicago, I've watched him play quite a bit. I'm very high on Crawford - I've always been a champion of his and I'm very sure my post history will replicate that. To the same extent I was VERY adamant about Carolina betting on Scott Darling, and I know I expressed that in the thread that announced the signing. But it was a bet on a 28 year old with limited action, who btw is going to be 29 very very soon. Guy got paid 4.25x4, and that was a biiiiiiigggg gamble. I still like him, but 4 years making that cash? I'm not tooo sure that was an advantageous endeavor. As for Cam Ward, I'd bet on Darling to recover before I bet on him stringing together a full season.

Carolina is an unreal young team, and there's no way at this point I could justify them competing for a series win (seeing how early it is), but I think they are a team that is required to rely on unknowns to even make a playoff push. Guys like Abby (who, btw, I think is justifying his AAV right now) bring an element to a team that a Di Giuseppe doesn't bring in a replacement capacity. Helmer is a tenacious player I'm sure a lot of coaches would love on their 3rd line.

Edit: the first line reads like I was putting words in your mouth, I wasn't implying you said that,

 

[Winger98]

I'm not trying to justify our current numbers or the terms KH has given out. I was really high on Darling in Chicago, I've watched him play quite a bit. I'm very high on Crawford - I've always been a champion of his and I'm very sure my post history will replicate that. To the same extent I was VERY adamant about Carolina betting on Scott Darling, and I know I expressed that in the thread that announced the signing. But it was a bet on a 28 year old with limited action, who btw is going to be 29 very very soon. Guy got paid 4.25x4, and that was a biiiiiiigggg gamble. I still like him, but 4 years making that cash? I'm not tooo sure that was an advantageous endeavor. As for Cam Ward, I'd bet on Darling to recover before I bet on him stringing together a full season.

Carolina is an unreal young team, and there's no way at this point I could justify them competing for a series win (seeing how early it is), but I think they are a team that is required to rely on unknowns to even make a playoff push. Guys like Abby (who, btw, I think is justifying his AAV right now) bring an element to a team that a Di Giuseppe doesn't bring in a replacement capacity. Helmer is a tenacious player I'm sure a lot of coaches would love on their 3rd line.

Edit: the first line reads like I was putting words in your mouth, I wasn't implying you said that,

Look at what Toronto gave Anderson, though. I think that sort of deal is just what it takes to get a goalie you want that isn't a retread in some form. If Darling goes out and post a .910 on the year, I'd probably feel pretty okay with that, like I broke even on the contract. What kills is when a guy like Mrazek posts a .901 or whatever he had last year. Ugh.

Gator's had a very good year so far, and agree about him earning his deal so far this year. I'm pessimistic on him keeping it up but, if he does, I'll be happy for it. It might seem like it at times, but I don't hate them as players. Ina vacuum, I don't necessarily hate their deals. But on the Wings? Just not a fan because of where the club was going, and how we could grab third liners on better terms pretty much every summer. They might not bring exactly the same things Helm and Gator do, but I think we could have replaced them in the aggregate.

Also, I think we could have at worst pulled high 2nds for them, even firsts from teams really needing depth (ask San Jose how much they'd have paid in retrospect to bring in a guy like Helm for their Finals run a couple of years ago). Some more early draft picks may have went a long way in this rebuild on the fly thing Holland has been pushing for half a decade now.

 

[Redder Winger]

Quality of competition not including this year has been easier for AA. He was playing 9-13 minutes a night against others teams lower end lines and players, that is what I assume he meant by quality of competition. Tatar, Nyquist, etc., were playing against other teams top lines and defense because we have no one else outside Z at the top, so them getting points last year and beyond was tougher than AA's small sample size. This year is a different story, but using his whole career to say he has been one of the best in p/60 is just silly.

You keep saying that, but my QOC numbers are over three years.

 

[Ezekial]

Look at what Toronto gave Anderson, though. I think that sort of deal is just what it takes to get a goalie you want that isn't a retread in some form. If Darling goes out and post a .910 on the year, I'd probably feel pretty okay with that, like I broke even on the contract. What kills is when a guy like Mrazek posts a .901 or whatever he had last year. Ugh.

Gator's had a very good year so far, and agree about him earning his deal so far this year. I'm pessimistic on him keeping it up but, if he does, I'll be happy for it. It might seem like it at times, but I don't hate them as players. Ina vacuum, I don't necessarily hate their deals. But on the Wings? Just not a fan because of where the club was going, and how we could grab third liners on better terms pretty much every summer. They might not bring exactly the same things Helm and Gator do, but I think we could have replaced them in the aggregate.

Also, I think we could have at worst pulled high 2nds for them, even firsts from teams really needing depth (ask San Jose how much they'd have paid in retrospect to bring in a guy like Helm for their Finals run a couple of years ago). Some more early draft picks may have went a long way in this rebuild on the fly thing Holland has been pushing for half a decade now.

I agree with everything you said, especially the part about Helm on San Jose - such a low key asset that could've put that team over the top.
But to bring it full circle, that is why I'm saying players like that could be great in places like Carolina. Although spending that extra 11 mil in cap may not make them the cup favorite, those little money additions can have a great impact. So, again I used Helm and Abby as easy examples due to number- not viably signable options, say they just add Abby, Helmer, (this example may backfire due to the level of his play in Dallas, but I think he'd do well there) Ben Bishop to their roster and drop Darling, that team may not be a cup favorite, but that could be a pretty damn good team in 17-18's east. Take the 4th away from Carolina to LA, that's the only minus. Edit: That's less than 10 million AAV added to the roster, too.

 

[Oddbob]

You keep saying that, but my QOC numbers are over three years.

Yeah exactly, up until this year, AA was used in the same capacity, as a 9-13 minute forward vs weaker defenders, while Tatar/Zetterberg/Nyquist etc, faced top line competition in the same span and played more harder minutes. For talented player(s) like AA, Z, Tatar, Nyquist, it is easier by a lot, to score versus weak competition than against 1st line defence. So obviously by comparison, AA's numbers will look much better per/60 of ice time. It is one of the big reasons why many awesome rookies struggle in season two, as others teams figure them out, and put out better defense to shut them down. Now if you go from here on out with AA facing similar competition and he posts better numbers in the same situations, then your point will make sense, but for now, it is this year only which is what 11-12 games?

Edit - Also, don't take this as me knocking AA, as I like him and think he is very gifted, but the p/60 argument makes him look better than he actually is. Also, while he has played much harder this season, and given more each night, he still does many of the things he did in times past that will keep him from being a superstar. One of those being, too many attempts to do it all by himself, and it looks like he has his mind made up before-hand, without even gauging the situation, which makes me wonder about his ability to read the play. Someone else said he has the tools but no toolbox and it may well be the case. I hope not, but so far it looks that way. The second is that he does coast from time to time, almost looking uninterested at times, like he did last year. Again he has improved in the latter point, but still does it from time to time. Nyquist and Tatar do as well, but they aren't in the doghouse or anything with Blashill as AA seems to be at times. So dogging it will not be accepted like it is with the other two, and it shouldn't be with them either, but I am not the coach. Zetterberg may be slow, but you can see him giving it what he's got each shift, even if his speed does cost him some.

 

[Redder Winger]

Yeah exactly, up until this year, AA was used in the same capacity, as a 9-13 minute forward vs weaker defenders, while Tatar/Zetterberg/Nyquist etc, faced top line competition in the same span and played more harder minutes. For talented player(s) like AA, Z, Tatar, Nyquist, it is easier by a lot, to score versus weak competition than against 1st line defence. So obviously by comparison, AA's numbers will look much better per/60 of ice time. It is one of the big reasons why many awesome rookies struggle in season two, as others teams figure them out, and put out better defense to shut them down. Now if you go from here on out with AA facing similar competition and he posts better numbers in the same situations, then your point will make sense, but for now, it is this year only which is what 11-12 games?

Edit - Also, don't take this as me knocking AA, as I like him and think he is very gifted, but the p/60 argument makes him look better than he actually is. Also, while he has played much harder this season, and given more each night, he still does many of the things he did in times past that will keep him from being a superstar. One of those being, too many attempts to do it all by himself, and it looks like he has his mind made up before-hand, without even gauging the situation, which makes me wonder about his ability to read the play. Someone else said he has the tools but no toolbox and it may well be the case. I hope not, but so far it looks that way. The second is that he does coast from time to time, almost looking uninterested at times, like he did last year. Again he has improved in the latter point, but still does it from time to time. Nyquist and Tatar do as well, but they aren't in the doghouse or anything with Blashill as AA seems to be at times. So dogging it will not be accepted like it is with the other two, and it shouldn't be with them either, but I am not the coach. Zetterberg may be slow, but you can see him giving it what he's got each shift, even if his speed does cost him some.

I guess the QOC numbers are irrelevant than.
And maybe they are.
That's fine.

I agree with you. I want to see Athanasiou be more engaged.

I disagree with you on the passing/do-it-himself point.
He's never going to be a great passer, but I've already seen improvement from him in this regard.

If you're a guy who can have success going coast-to-coast, and you're a guy who doesn't have much success passing up the ice, it's easy to understand why you might not trust the pass options.
He needs to learn what he can and can't get away with.

There are somethings you can't learn. Fortunately, there are somethings you can learn at the NHL level. Passing is one of them. I expect him to improve throughout his career.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yeah, none of those vets offer any sort of assurance for me should a real top guy go down with injury or was traded. The guy who makes Tatar easier to move isn't Helm or Gator, it's Athanasiou. And Mantha. And even Svechnikov and Rasmussen. We don't have a guy that makes losing Green easier. Our best bet for that would probably be a guy like Hronek, but we can't even give him a cup of coffee until someone gets hurt seriously enough for LTIR because we're capped out.

You're looking at it way too simplified. It's not about 1:1 replacements, but Helm+Abby+Svechnikov is better depth to handle trading a guy like Tatar than Svechnikov+Holmstrom+Witkowski/Other is. Daley is, if nothing else, a solid NHLer and a veteran that knows what it takes to win. That's better company for Hronek/etc to keep than Renouf, Lashoff or whatever other garbage we'd have to promote in his absence.

If you want to lock guys up long term, at least let it be a guy like Tatar or Nyquist who still routinely goes out and produces. Third line forwards can be grabbed all summer for either lower cap numbers, shorter term, or both. Look at Vanek who sat at home for how long this summer? Signed in Vancouver dirt cheap, and has put up a point every other game.

If you think Vanek is an adequate replacement for Abby or Helm we're just so far apart on how we view hockey that it's probably not worth it for us to have a discussion. And this idea that decent players can be easily found for cheap and short terms in FA is, to me, total and utter BS. FA is full of overpayments. The less you rely on FA to fill out your roster the better.

And this isn't saying we have to be $10 million under the cap. Be $4 million under, that's more than enough room to give you roster, trade, whatever move wiggle room. But we're not just spending to the cap, we're spending nearly $4 million over. And it's to fight for the privilege of being the 15th best team in the league. I'm just not seeing what Holland's spending ways is buying the Wings opportunity wise.

The opportunity for Larkin and Mantha to actually play meaningful games instead of being stuck in a dumpster fire, going-nowhere team like Buffalo/Arizona/etc? Having money and not spending it is just not very smart. At minimum, we can use our money to buy ourselves assets that can be sold at the TDL.

 

[TheMule93]

After this poor performance, think Blash will abandon the 11F 7D configuration tonight and go back to the lines he used to neutralize the mcdavids last time?

 

[Ezekial]

After this poor performance, think Blash will abandon the 11F 7D configuration tonight and go back to the lines he used to neutralize the mcdavids last time?

Big E didn't practice this morning either. Signs pointing to a 12-6 right now. I'd bet on line 3 going up against McDavid.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

After getting lit up last night in St Louis 8-3 the Oilers are going to be mad, Detroit had better come into tonight's game ready for them not like the Colorado game or Detroit will be the ones getting lit up tonight.

 

[Redder Winger]

Exactly. There are opportunities we aren’t even going to explore because of our cap situation. There could be a guy that the Wings organization covers more than any other who could be a great pick up that we aren’t even going to assess fully because we can’t make things work capwise.

Agree with you and Winger.
If you're not going to be a cup contender, leave yourself cap room for the flexibility to strike when an opportunity presents itself.

 

[Redder Winger]

FA is full of overpayments. The less you rely on FA to fill out your roster the better.

FA has many good opportunities.
But it's not only about UFA, it's about trade opportunities.
And if you're sitting with your nose pressed against the salary cap and most of those dollars being tied up in immovable deals, you're out of the game.

 

[Winger98]

You're looking at it way too simplified. It's not about 1:1 replacements, but Helm+Abby+Svechnikov is better depth to handle trading a guy like Tatar than Svechnikov+Holmstrom+Witkowski/Other is. Daley is, if nothing else, a solid NHLer and a veteran that knows what it takes to win. That's better company for Hronek/etc to keep than Renouf, Lashoff or whatever other garbage we'd have to promote in his absence.


If you think Vanek is an adequate replacement for Abby or Helm we're just so far apart on how we view hockey that it's probably not worth it for us to have a discussion. And this idea that decent players can be easily found for cheap and short terms in FA is, to me, total and utter BS. FA is full of overpayments. The less you rely on FA to fill out your roster the better.


The opportunity for Larkin and Mantha to actually play meaningful games instead of being stuck in a dumpster fire, going-nowhere team like Buffalo/Arizona/etc? Having money and not spending it is just not very smart. At minimum, we can use our money to buy ourselves assets that can be sold at the TDL.

And I'd take Athanasiou-Svech over either of those groupings, but whatever. Inserting Helm into the top6 doesn't make it easier to get rid of Tatar, it just makes us have a worse top6. And what teams need to win is talent, but if you want vet presence after dealing Green, well, we still Ericsson, Kronwall, and Dekeyser.

And Vanek is fine for a third line wing. It's not about making 1:1 replacements, as I've said elsewhere on these boards and numerous times in discussions just like this, it's replacing the aggregate. Solid players to fill out a bottom6 are out there every year, and you can't worry about overpaying someone considering the contracts handed out to Gator and Helm. It's not like the Wings got a break on those deals. Show those contracts to similar players over the summer, and you'll likely be able to sign those guys, too. It'll be overpaying, but we handed out too much term, cap, or both to those guys now.

Did we play "meaningful" games last year with our capped out roster? If we were buying assets to sell later, we wouldn't be signing guys for 3 years. We'd do what I suggest doing and which you derided - sign filler on the cheap to fill out the roster, guys like Vanek.

 

[RedWingzz]

Big E didn't practice this morning either. Signs pointing to a 12-6 right now. I'd bet on line 3 going up against McDavid.

Wasn't AA guarenteed a spot in the top 6 by Blashill?

Now he's on the 4th line lol. I just don't understand Blashill's dislike of AA. It's absolutely ridiculous, he has a personal grudge against him for no apparent reason.

 

[Ezekial]

Wasn't AA guarenteed a spot in the top 6 by Blashill?

Now he's on the 4th line lol. I just don't understand Blashill's dislike of AA. It's absolutely ridiculous, he has a personal grudge against him for no apparent reason.

He's playing center. Blashill wanted to get him reps at that position and he's not going to displace 71/40/51 and I think he's going to use Glendening in a matchup capacity again tonight.

This isn't the first time this season AA has centered the 4th line, he plays specialty teams too so he'll get the minutes and he will get more ES shifts than Wilson and Booth.

And it was top 9 ice time, he can still get that tonight.

 

[Ezekial]

of course Redder likes that.


The grudge is for real, he wants him to develop at center! Wow, Blash, how dare you.

Idk if you've watched him play center much this year, but he's definitely not ready to center a top 3 line. At least from what I've watched to form my opinion.

 

[Redder Winger]

He's playing center. Blashill wanted to get him reps at that position and he's not going to displace 71/40/51 and I think he's going to use Glendening in a matchup capacity again tonight.

This isn't the first time this season AA has centered the 4th line, he plays specialty teams too so he'll get the minutes and he will get more ES shifts than Wilson and Booth.

And it was top 9 ice time, he can still get that tonight.

Yeah, but he's playing with shit linemates who 1) can't get him the puck 2) give defensemen no reason to do anything but key on him.
Considering AA's considerable 5-on-5 production, this seems like piss poor thinking.

 

[Ezekial]

Great, then we'll lose for the tank.

 

[RedWingzz]

AA is supposed to succeed with David Booth and Scott Wilson on his wings? Come on man, when AA is on the ice he is always one of the most dangerous forwards we have. Sure at times he needs to round out other areas of his game, but he has no business being on a 4th line. I called that we would lose last game as soon as I saw AA benched. Blashill tries to shut games down with a 1 goal lead. That's not a good formula for success in this league.

Blashill has been slightly better this year than last, but he still makes idiotic decisions in my opinion. Having Helm and Nielsen as the first forward duo to get 2 shifts in OT last game is a prime example. Then he goes on in the post-game about how the team wasn't good enough. That may have been true, but the coaching certainly wasn't good enough either. The only forwards who should see the ice in OT are Z, Nyquist, Tatar and the kids. That's it. Send out Z with Mantha, then Larkin with Tatar, then AA with Nyquist. Rotate those 3 pairs and actually try to win the game in OT instead of putting Darren Helm on the ice.