GDT: 10/19/17 - 7:00PM EDT - Tampa Bay @ Columbus

[cbjgirl]

If you don't mind an outsider's opinion...

I'd give the CBJ an A for effort last night, 5 on 5 a B for execution, and a big old F for the power(less) play.

My impression was that the speed between the teams was similar, but Tampa had the size. Both teams were forechecking and backchecking. A fairly even matchup all things considered. In certain ways, I thought the CBJ youth was showing a bit last night as well as a lack of cohesion (Torts with the line shuffling).

Both teams have room for improvement, it's still early in the season.

 

[TampaJay]

http://www.thelightninglounge.com/2017/10/russian-fire-extinguishers.html

There are some good points made in that article but I have to disagree with the overall premise: that the bolts are getting fortunate riding a high shooting % and Vasi is saving their bacon (and coach’s butt) because they are 25th in the league in shots against. The logic of that article comes from the Corsica perspective that puts so much weight on shot numbers. Tampa is a team of skilled forwards who keep passing until they get the high % shot, sometimes to a fault, and to the frustration of us fans watching great shooters like Stamkos and Kucherov seemingly pass out of shots. That is not a coaching problem because they keep yelling at them to shoot more. It is the personality of this team. They are going to lose on the shot count while winning on the scoreboard. Last night was the perfect example. A high number of Vasi’s stops were in the bread basket or the glove. That is not taking anything away from the importance of Vasi’s great play… he’s the MVP so far. But in this new world of analytics, there is just too much importance put on shot counts and Corsica. It’s the type of shots that matter, and the ability to finish, and ultimately who gets the W, not who wins the shot count.

 

[The Macho King]

Also - 11% team shooting percentage is high, but it's not so high that you can expect a massive regression (especially considering our shot volume has been rather low).

xGF/GA is a fake stat that completely ignores significant factors (most notably f***ing goaltending - and also it doesn't factor in enough quality of scoring chances). Our possession numbers aren't where they should be, but I have no reason to believe that won't pick up.

Our first 8 games has been a murderer's row. Pens, Caps, Blues, a Wings team that isn't sucking like they should, the BJs and a Devils team that looks like they may be the real deal. That's a tough stretch. And I don't think you can look at any of those games and say we were outplayed. A few we played even, but we're getting wins.

I think it was last year me and Sky (isn't it always me and Sky?) were down on the team's early success because it was clear there were systemic issues. I just don't think that's the case this time - NZ has to be cleaned up going both ways (but when it's on point it looks reeeeeeeeeeally good), and a few other nagging issues here and there, but this team *looks* like a contender.

 

[Boltswin]

The Kuch thing was just plain odd. The more I think about it, the less it makes any real sense.

Perhaps the thinking was, the team would be more focused on getting them that empty net goal than winning the game. You see it all the time; game on the line, empty net, the team with the lead gets control of the puck. Rather than just putting it in the net, a guy passes it to a teammate to try to get them the hatty.

 

[The Macho King]

Let me give some context to why I hate xGF.

http://corsica.hockey/team-stats/

From last season - top teams in xGF% are:

Boston
Minnesota
LA
Montreal
San Jose
Pitt
Anaheim
Nashville
Washington
Edmonton

Looking at that list in that order - what exactly are they measuring there?

The preceeding season looks a little better (Pitt and SJ at the top), but for the life of me I look at that list and say "what do these teams have in common" - and I don't have an answer.

Also - the year prior to that is even more of a mess. Islanders at the top, Minny second, Nashville 3rd, LA 4th, TB fifth, your eventual Cup winner Chicago .... 18th. ECF Rangers... 19th. Montreal 20th (recall they were good that year). Winnipeg 6th.

I don't see the predictive value in xGF. With CF% you know what it's measuring, so when there are outliers you can say "well yeah they have good possession but they don't have a lot of finishers" or "yeah their possession is low but when you have Crosby and Malkin you only need one shot to score." The measurements make sense and the outliers are explainable. xGF seems like voodoo math to me, and I don't think enough has been done to map out it's predictive strengths to be more than an answer to a trivia question.

 

[DFC]

We're playing with speed. That's the main thing. When we're playing poorly, win or lose, we look like we're skating through mud. We've started this season looking like one of the fastest teams in the NHL, if not the fastest, which is what we were known for before The Dark Period. The Blue Jackets announcers mentioned that they hadn't seen such a fast game yet this year. We used to get those kinds of comments a lot.

As for everything else, we have two shooters on the team who regularly shoot above 15%, and these are the two guys who take, combined, something like 1/5 of our total shots. I think it stands to reason we're going to finish the season with a higher Shooting % than the norm.

 

[Steazy Doo]

Kucherov's assist on the first goal was changed to Stamkos, who now leads the NHL in points.

 

[The Macho King]

Kucherov's assist on the first goal was changed to Stamkos, who now leads the NHL in points.

Awww - our all Russian scoring was changed.

Now there is probably going to be issues in the locker room between Stamkos and Kucherov.

 

[Sky04]

Kucherov's assist on the first goal was changed to Stamkos, who now leads the NHL in points.

Him and Kucherov were 1-2 in scoring last year before his injury, him and St.louis were 1-2 again before his injury in 2013 and he's off to another 1-2 lead this year with his linemate, that's 3 times in 5 years Stamkos has bursted out the gate.

With all the injures we honestly could've missed Stamkos's actual prime these past 5 years, we've seen where his game can be when he's at his peak, leads the league in scoring right now and still not at that level.

 

[Sky04]

Our first 8 games has been a murderer's row. Pens, Caps, Blues, a Wings team that isn't sucking like they should, the BJs and a Devils team that looks like they may be the real deal. That's a tough stretch. And I don't think you can look at any of those games and say we were outplayed. A few we played even, but we're getting wins.

I think it was last year me and Sky (isn't it always me and Sky?) were down on the team's early success because it was clear there were systemic issues. I just don't think that's the case this time - NZ has to be cleaned up going both ways (but when it's on point it looks reeeeeeeeeeally good), and a few other nagging issues here and there, but this team *looks* like a contender.

Yeah well I'm a natural pessimist but I think you and I have a strong belief on what this team should look and play like and we've been nowhere close to that expectation the past 2 years - heck even the triplets year I believe the team could've been much better with small changes.

I'll call it as I see it, we started 5-1 last year and 5-1 this year, I have no idea how anyone could think the level of play is even remotely the same. Listen no team is ever going to be perfect for 60 minutes straight, that's hockey momentum will eventually swing the other way. If you keep the majority of the 60 mins in your control you're going to win more than not and be exciting at the same time. In previous years we'd put in about 10-15mins of effort a game and muster goals on herorics which is why we won games but they were incredibly boring to watch. These past 4-5 games we've been constantly in control and generating constant offense it's not just 10 minute efforts anymore they have control for 30-40mins a game at times.

 

[These Are The Days]

Well I'll be... it took 2 years but me and Sky agree 100% on absolutely everything. We might've disagreed on 100% of the last 2 years but we see everything the same now.

To elaborate on the point, I know it's too early to drink the Kool-Aid but you don't run the gauntlet the way we have without dramatic improvement to the play we've seen in the past. Against a team like DC and Pittsburgh you're only gonna get about 40 minutes of really controlling the play on the best night. You're gonna get trapped. You're gonna need about 3 highlight reel saves from your goaltender and someone like Kucherov is going to have to play hero. But in the end if you can punch them right the nose with clean zone entry that's both creative and sustained with good play along the wall (and we've had both) then your odds of winning are just as good as theirs. We aren't offsides every other rush, we aren't complacent until 10 minutes to go, we are attacking despite whatever lead we have and our players are being utilized almost perfectly -particularly on defense.

In all my time here I have never at any point been sold that we could actually win the Stanley Cup. But there's been brief stretches of play through these 8 games (I was particularly impressed against Pittsburgh) where we've taken over and I thought "We are playing like a champion right now"

 

[Volodya Krutov]

I'd like to see the team more dedicated to generate offensive-zone time over 60 minutes, because they're doing it to get the lead and then they sit back and play too conservatively. With Cooper always being so cautious, maybe it's done on purpose but I'm not big fan of this, the team would be even better playing aggressively, whatever the score is IMO. Most of these games have been relatively close and we're relying too much on goaltending. In short, I'd like to see a team more in control, but overall it's a good team playing relatively well.