Post-Game Talk: #1 | Flyers at Blue Jackets | October 12, 2023 | 4-2 Win

[deadhead]

York - Sanheim looked really good, some of this is Sanheim is a different player this year (he's stronger, and is playing with more confidence), some of that is so far, almost every D-man paired with York plays better.

Zamula - Seeler is not an ideal combo.

I think it's likely to be the following to start the season:
York - Risto
Zamula -Sanheim
Seeler - Walker
with Staal as the 7th D-man, and Andrae back to LHV.

But they like Andrae, he'll get a few games to show he belongs and probably bench Seeler.
If he's not ready, he'll get a few months in LHV before they move out a veteran D-man or two.

They'll want to play Risto and Walker, Walker for the TDL, Risto for next summer when they'll try to move him - can't move him if he isn't playing.

Briere is in no rush, he's not spending assets or taking on a lot of dead money to move out Risto, Atkinson, etc. Next summer he'll have more options, there won't be takers at the TDL with their salaries (though the cap going up next year will help).

 

[gto64dr]

Torts hates him...

Wrong, Frost was a turnover machine early in the game. Game minutes aren"t given for screwing up.

 

[Pantokrator]

What rebuild...

I think we can go ahead and call the rebuild a success. We're making a playoff push! I wonder what assets we will get rid of in March for veteran help.

 

[deadhead]

Werenski was pretty bad before he got hurt, some rust there.
Provorov was decent, like to jump on him, but he is probably going to be fine, just nothing special. However, didn't see the great transition player who was smothered in Philly.

 

[ponder719]

Frost did have a couple half-cocked + head-up-ass turnovers last night that he needed to not make. He just needs the leash to make those in a game every now and then.

Frost has plenty of leash; it's just that Torts has it fully wrapped around his throat.

 

[flyersnorth]

It was nice to see the boys back in action!

I have no expectations for the season, just hoping some guys take positive steps forward.

Nice to see Farabee open the season scoring. He looked so happy.

Looking forward to seeing maybe Andrae and Foerster next game.

 

[deadhead]

Frost has to produce, like everyone else. Poehling was the better player last night and he's the same age. I think Atkinson will be a good fit for him, b/c he's a little mentally fragile, and having a veteran mentor (who still has some skill left) may help him through the low spots.

Great quote from TK on Couts:

“It’s just so funny, because it’s not like he’s buzzing around,” Konecny noted. “He’s just in the right spots at the right time, and you can’t get the puck from him. He just plays the right way, and when you do that, you get rewarded.”

That's why it's hard to know how far back Couts is, because prime Couts never looked impressive, except when you checked the analytics and realized he controlled the game. But he played 20 minutes in a real game. Some guys are whirling dervishes, Couts is just a puck magnet.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

York - Sanheim looked really good, some of this is Sanheim is a different player this year (he's stronger, and is playing with more confidence), some of that is so far, almost every D-man paired with York plays better.

Zamula - Seeler is not an ideal combo.

I think it's likely to be the following to start the season:
York - Risto
Zamula -Sanheim
Seeler - Walker
with Staal as the 7th D-man, and Andrae back to LHV.

But they like Andrae, he'll get a few games to show he belongs and probably bench Seeler.
If he's not ready, he'll get a few months in LHV before they move out a veteran D-man or two.

They'll want to play Risto and Walker, Walker for the TDL, Risto for next summer when they'll try to move him - can't move him if he isn't playing.

Briere is in no rush, he's not spending assets or taking on a lot of dead money to move out Risto, Atkinson, etc. Next summer he'll have more options, there won't be takers at the TDL with their salaries (though the cap going up next year will help).

so staal will go from 20 minutes to the press box? at least you are consistent.

Or they want to play Risto because they think he is part of the future and they like what he brings to the table. Yeah cap going up means a team will waste it on Risto.

 

[Audible Velvet]

I’m really liking Brink. They better give him enough of a chance to stick.
Hathaway is a creep.

 

[Tripod]

What highlights did SN up here in Canada show for our game?

Fantilli taking the ice for warmup
CBus goal showing Fantilli assist
Hathaway knee on Werenski
Hathaway apologizing for that knee

That's it.

 

[wankstifier]

Wrong, Frost was a turnover machine early in the game. Game minutes aren"t given for screwing up.

What’s your excuse for Marc Staal?

 

[Curufinwe]

Frost has to produce, like everyone else. Poehling was the better player last night and he's the same age. I think Atkinson will be a good fit for him, b/c he's a little mentally fragile, and having a veteran mentor (who still has some skill left) may help him through the low spots.

He's not, actually. You are, because you live in an alternate reality where Attard is going to replace Risto in the top 4, and Staal is more of a coach than a player even though he had 20 minutes on opening night.

 

[deadhead]

We'll see.

If you want to win, you don't play Staal on a regular basis, if you want to develop young D-men, you don't play Staal on a regular basis.

Question is Andrae ready for prime time. He flashed in TC but made a lot of mistakes - which will be exposed in the regular season. He'll get a look, but good chance he'll end up in LHV unless he grows by leaps and bounds.

Brink's recovery on the turnover was really impressive, just a veteran play, no panic, took the right angle against a faster player and shut him down. That's what young players have to show, they're gonna make mistakes, how do they handle it.

 

[GKJ]

 

[deadhead]

It was a late hit, but more incidental contact, Hathaway didn't try to plaster him against the boards.
I've seen far worse not even draw a penalty.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It was a late hit, but more incidental contact, Hathaway didn't try to plaster him against the boards.
I've seen far worse not even draw a penalty.

He lifted his leg and extended the knee. It’s flat out embarrassing that anyone would try to defend this. This isn’t a grey area.

 

[Kelmitchell2]

York - Sanheim looked really good, some of this is Sanheim is a different player this year (he's stronger, and is playing with more confidence), some of that is so far, almost every D-man paired with York plays better.

Zamula - Seeler is not an ideal combo.

I think it's likely to be the following to start the season:
York - Risto
Zamula -Sanheim
Seeler - Walker
with Staal as the 7th D-man, and Andrae back to LHV.

But they like Andrae, he'll get a few games to show he belongs and probably bench Seeler.
If he's not ready, he'll get a few months in LHV before they move out a veteran D-man or two.

They'll want to play Risto and Walker, Walker for the TDL, Risto for next summer when they'll try to move him - can't move him if he isn't playing.

Briere is in no rush, he's not spending assets or taking on a lot of dead money to move out Risto, Atkinson, etc. Next summer he'll have more options, there won't be takers at the TDL with their salaries (though the cap going up next year will help).

Asf says they're sending Andrea down on Saturday if risto is back, so he will get no games

 

[deadhead]

He lifted his leg and extended the knee. It’s flat out embarrassing that anyone would try to defend this. This isn’t a grey area.

It wasn't an egregious hit either, no elbow to the head, no smashing someone against the boards, etc.
Like I said, I've seen far worse not even called a penalty. Like people extending the knee in mid-ice against a guy skating the other way. This wasn't nearly as dangerous.

It looked to me that Hathaway was trying not to hit Werenski head on, more awkward than anything else. A late hit, but geez, if it was Bean who got hit, I doubt the league even looks at it. The mistake was not seeing the puck was long gone and pulling up.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It wasn't an egregious hit either, no elbow to the head, no smashing someone against the boards, etc.
Like I said, I've seen far worse not even called a penalty. Like people extending the knee in mid-ice against a guy skating the other way. This wasn't nearly as dangerous.

It looked to me that Hathaway was trying not to hit Werenski head on, more awkward than anything else. A late hit, but geez, if it was Bean who got hit, I doubt the league even looks at it. The mistake was not seeing the puck was long gone and pulling up.

The bar for being unacceptable is not the most dangerous plays you've ever seen. That's why suspensions aren't flat amounts. Nor does who was hit have anything to do with the level of danger involved. You're waving your hands and screaming star politics. I'm talking about what happened.

Whether he tried to or not, the man lead with his knee on a leg that was off the ice. The entire NHL fanbase has this same dopey conversation every time this happens. If you want to eliminate those knee hits, you have to punish them in some meaningful way. Or they can keep happening with relative frequency. Those are the choices. Personally, I would like to eliminate plays that add nothing to the game and carry significant potential for serious injury.

 

[VladDrag]

I've got some time this AM, so it's going to be another lesson in metrics. I'm going to use Morgan Frost and Owen Tippett's xGF metrics as an example of understanding what happened last night. And before I go into the discussion, its more about understanding what these metrics are telling us, and not particularly defending Frost. I thought Frost was okay, not good, not great... Had a few turnovers that shouldn't have happened, and didn't backcheck hard (along with his other linemates) on the lone goal after a long offensive shift. But he was active in the offensive zone as well, his line just didn't get much credit for it.

People has said Frost's metrics were bad (so were Tippett's btw), and for sure they were. Frost and Tippetthad the worst on-ice xGF% ratio at ES on the night. But let's look at this data (per NST):

Below are two figures, the teams individual skater stats, and Morgan Frost's individual event map. I'm using Frost as an example, but it applies for Tippett (and somewhat for Brink as well)...

The iCF are total shot attempts (blocked, on net, saved, and scored). He had 4 total shot attempts, 3 of which were individual scoring chances for (iSCF). 2 of the 3 iSCFs were blocked by a Columbus defender. NST, does not use blocked shots in their calculation for individual expected goals (ixG)*, they only use saves, goals and missed shots. Only one of his three iSCF counted towards his ixG total (0.05). The lone shot that was used to generate his ixGF was a missed tip shot, represented as the green M below (I think it's green, I'm red/green colorblind so it could be a different color).

Frost had two shots attempts blocked (represented as the green Ab circles) that were taken right in front of the net (one at 5v5 and one at 4v4). If those shots are not blocked, then his ixG totals would have increased a fair bit (both were taken from within the faceoff dots). This is also true of his linemate Tippett, who had shot attempts from inside the dots that were blocked at both 4v4 and 5v5. Frost and Tippett were on the ice for all of these blocked shots.

If all of these shots are not blocked, you would see an increase in ES on-ice xGF for both Frost and Tippett. For those that don't know, on-ice xGF is an accumulation of any teammates ixGF for a single skater while that single skater is on the ice. For example, Tippett's ixGF would increase Frost's on-ice xGF and vice versa.

This is important to understand when looking at metrics on a game per game basis. Lets run the each blocked shot scenario 100 times. The shot may get blocked 30 times, miss the net 30 times, 20 times and goal is scored 10 times. There is so much variability in hockey, and understanding this is crucial in understanding stats. What happens in a single game isn't as important as what happens in a 20-40 game span.

Frost and Tippett's on-ice stats are awful for one game because they didn't get 'credit' (a la ixGF) for their better shot looks. On the other side of that coin is that they were in the middle of the offensive zone, attempting to get high quality chances. Some nights the bounces don't go your way, and some nights they do. If Frost and Tippett can continue to generate shots from those areas, eventually they'll go unblocked and their numbers will look better. Conversely, if this was a one-off night, and they can't continue to generate, these values will continue. Again, that's why a 20-40 game stretch is more telling than a 1 game sample.


*Individual expected goals is a value of on each non-blocked shot that represents its likelihood of resulting in a goal scored.

**I did not proof read this before replying**

 

[zizbuka]

He lifted his leg and extended the knee. It’s flat out embarrassing that anyone would try to defend this. This isn’t a grey area.

Wasn't he jumping to stop the puck going around the glass?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@VladDrag You put more effort into that review than some people that get paid for it. Well done.

Wasn't he jumping to stop the puck going around the glass?

Nah. The puck was long gone at that point. Here’s a replay with a few angles:



And again, I don’t think he was trying to hurt the guy at all.

 

[FLYguy3911]

JJ + the 4th line is going to be Hagg-like on the broadcast this year.

 

[VladDrag]

@VladDrag You put more effort into that review than some people that get paid for it. Well done.



Nah. The puck was long gone at that point. Here’s a replay with a few angles:



And again, I don’t think he was trying to hurt the guy at all.

Thank you, Sir!

Edit - It's important to me that people understand what this data can and cannot tell you about a player. These metrics don't do a great job of answering the why question. They are also not telling you if a player is good or bad at any given moment. However, over the course of a season, they can tell you how effective a player likely is, in the situations they were used.

 

[dragonoffrost]

So Torts goes full Torts with Staal and we have people saying he'll be traded or sat....

He shouldn't get more than 15 minutes a game and that's only if forced to use him that much. 12 is probably too much even.

Never change defend Torts at all costs...