06 ATD divisional semi-final: Buffalo Bisons vs. Fredericton Canadiens

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
35,331
6,500
South Korea
The Bobby Orr Division:

Buffalo_bisons_pepsi_logo.jpg


Buffalo Bisons

Coach: Tommy Ivan

Johnny Bucyk - Henri Richard - Maurice Richard (A)
Syd Howe - Syl Apps (C) - Gordie Drillon
Paul Thompson - Neil Colville - Didier Pitre
Harry Watson - Dave Keon - George Armstrong (A)

Nicklas Lidstrom - Bill Gadsby
King Clancy - Dit Clapper
Ebbie Goodfellow - Jimmy Thomson

Georges Vezina


vs.

FrederictonCanadiens9091.GIF

Fredericton Canadiens

Head Coach: Scotty Bowman

Frank Mahovlich - Ted Kennedy - Rick Middleton
Henrik Zetterberg - Mats Sundin - Yvan Cournoyer
Marty Pavelich - Mark Messier - Bobby Rousseau
Don Marshall - Ralph Backstrom - Ron Ellis

Doug Harvey - Bill Quackenbush
Doug Wilson - Fern Flaman
Allan Stanley - Pat Stapleton

Jacques Plante


 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
35,331
6,500
South Korea
Each team can post their special teams below along with any write-up they wish.

The poll will be open for 10 days so there's no need to rush to judgment. Ask questions, make comments. take some time to think about it.
 

tony d

Registered User
Jun 23, 2007
76,596
4,556
Behind A Tree
Good luck to sprague here, here my special teams:

PP 1: Mahovlich-Sundin-Cournoyer-Harvey-Wilson
PP 2: Zetterberg-Kennedy-Middleton-Quackenbush-Stapleton

PK 1: Marshall-Backstrom-Harvey-Flaman
PK 2: Zetterberg-Kennedy-Quackenbush-Stanley

At work but might chime in a bit over the coming days, hopefully sprague will add some thoughts as well.
 

Sprague Cleghorn

User Registered
Aug 14, 2013
3,516
504
Edmonton, KY
Special teams:

PP1:
Johnny Bucyk - Henri Richard - Maurice Richard
Nicklas Lidstrom - Didier Pitre

PP2:
Paul Thompson - Syl Apps - Gordie Drillon
Bill Gadsby - Dit Clapper

PK1:
Dave Keon - George Armstrong - Nicklas Lidstrom - Dit Clapper

PK2:
Neil Colville - Syd Howe - King Clancy - Jimmy Thomson
 

Sprague Cleghorn

User Registered
Aug 14, 2013
3,516
504
Edmonton, KY
First line:

My first line was built to resemble the real life line of Moore - H. Richard - M. Richard, which had outstanding success during their time together. Bucyk and Moore's playstyles are very similar. Both made their names as gritty, tough players that thrived in the corners and who were decent defensively. The Richard brothers shouldn't lose much of a step with Bucyk in Moore's spot.

First impression is that I've got you beat at C and RW decisively. The gaps vary as Henri > Kennedy while Maurice >>>> Middleton. Mahovlich is definitively better than Bucyk. I've got Mahovlich as the 3rd best LW in this draft, while Bucyk is somewhere in the bottome tier of 1st line LWers (probably 10th place). However, this shouldn't be much of a big problem as Bucyk is not the centerpiece of his line but simply a facilitator and because I believe the chemistry between him and the Richard brothers will also even things out. Also, the gap between Mahovlich and Bucyk is not enough to offset the gap between our Cs and RWs.

Both of our first lines are pretty decent defensively. Offensively, I think my line is better. VsX data supports this as these are the scores (7 years):

Maurice: 105.7
Henri: 85.6
Mahovlich: 85.5
Bucyk: 85.3
Kennedy: 81.5
Middleton: 74.0

Bisons total: 276.6
Canadiens total: 241.0

That's a 35 point difference. Now, Bucyk's score is overrated due to the 70s Bruins effect, but this is more than made up with Henri being underrated. Year in and year out Henri was among the leaders in ES points but his PP totals lagged behind everyone else's since he was playing behind Beliveau. Remove Beliveau and Henri's offensive totals are much better (at the cost of a few Stanley Cups). Here's Henri's ATD bio done by TDMM to show this effect.

Second line:

For my second line, Apps and Drillon have been reunited. Unlike in real life, where Apps and Drillon were often paired with a poor defensive LW (Schriner or Jackson), Howe takes the LW spot providing much needed two way play.

Whereas I clearly think my first line outclassed your second line, our second lines are much closer to each other. I definitely have the edge at C as Apps is significantly better than Sundin. Cournoyer is better than Drillon but not by much. Howe vs Zetterberg is much tougher. Both are the defensive stalwarts on their lines. I'm gonna say Howe is a bit better than Zetterberg. So what we're left with is Cournoyer > Drillon, Howe > Zetterberg, and Apps >>> Sundin. Apps is pretty much the best player here, and I believe he is what breaks the tie as our wingers are pretty equal to each other.

Looking at the VsX scores, all three of my players rank 1-3. Apps VsX is definitely hurt by him leaving for WW2, but this could be offset by Howe's boost due to him staying during WW2. Also, I've got the reason why Drillon's VsX is so high playing right with him, so his VsX probably needs no further adjustment.

Apps: 93.0
Drillon: 88.1
Howe: 87.9
Sundin: 82.3
Zetterberg: 76.7
Cournoyer: 73.6

Defensively, I think your line is better. Zetterberg and Howe are a wash, but Sundin is probably better than Apps and Cournoyer is most likely better than Drillon, but that's not saying much :laugh:. In conclusion, Apps is the deciding factor here, and why I think I've got the better second line.

I'll get in into our bottom six later.
 

tony d

Registered User
Jun 23, 2007
76,596
4,556
Behind A Tree
Thanks for your comments Sprague.

I agree that Richard is better than Middleton, in fact Richard is the best forward in this series. Middleton might be the weakest link on either 1st line. Richard and Kennedy are almost equals but I'll give a slight advantage to Kennedy. Mahovlich is better than Bucyk that we can agree on, Bucyk does have some strong vs x scores but Mahovlich is a good goal scorer.

Re: The 2nd lines. Yes Apps is better than Sundin, in fact he might be the best centre in this series based upon the original 6. Cournoyer probably takes the cake over Drillon though Drillon has a familiarity with Apps. Howe and Zetterberg are a wash and no advantage for either team.

Thanks for your comments. I look forward to your future ones and will respond accordingly.
 

Sprague Cleghorn

User Registered
Aug 14, 2013
3,516
504
Edmonton, KY
Third line:

My third line was set up to provide additional secondary scoring, along with strong two-way play. All three players on this line have known defensive acumen.

First glance at our third lines I've got Thompson >> Pavelich, Messier > Colville, and Pitre >>> Rousseau. IMO, NYR career only Messier is probably somewhere 50th-60th on an all-time centers list, so you've probably got the best player here depending on people's opinions of Pitre. Even though, you've got the edge at C, I definitively have the edge at both wing positions.

Both our third lines are pretty good defensively, and yours might have the edge. But, offensively, your third line really lags behind mine. NYR Messier only finished top-10 in points twice (5th and 10th). I'd imagine his 7 year VsX would be somewhere in the mid 70s, since Rousseau's offensive resume is slightly similar. Pavelich is pretty much a non factor offensively. Overall, it probably goes something like this:

Pitre
Thompson
Rousseau
Messier
Colville
Pavelich

Fourth line:

This line is meant to be the pure checking line, designed to take all the tough defensive assignments. Keon was one of the best, if not the best defensive C of the 60s. You could probably say the same thing about Armstrong at RW. I wanted to take Pulford to complete an excellent defensive trio, but since he was taken, I chose Watson, who is no slouch defensively either.

It looks to me like your 4th line is also meant to be a primarily checking line. I don't think both of these lines are going to be playing against each other much, but against our top lines in defensive zone starts. A quick glance through both our 4th lines shows me Watson = Marshall, Keon >>> Backstrom, Armstrong >> Ellis. Keon is the best player here by a significant margin. He could be a 2nd line C on some other teams but I've got him as my 4th line C here. Then, I've definitely got an edge at RW. Armstrong is like Ellis v 2.0. The only advantage that you could have here is at LW.
 

tony d

Registered User
Jun 23, 2007
76,596
4,556
Behind A Tree
Thanks for the comments:

3rd line:

You're right Thompson is better than Pavelich in terms of offense but for defensive hockey I think Pavelich has him beat, depends on what people are looking for in 3rd lines. Picking Messier was a blunder on my part but he's good here on the 3rd line and is ahead of Colville for sure. I'm not overly familiar on Pitre but I know Rousseau gives me a good 3rd line right winger.

4th line:

Harry Watson vs. Don Marshall pits 2 good left wingers, Marshall is the better of the 2 defensively. Keon could be a 2nd liner in this, he's a good 1 for sure. Ralph Backstrom will give me a good defensive player but Keon blows him out of the water. Armstrong and Ellis are good ones as well. Armstrong may be better but don't sleep on Ellis.

Anyway hoping to see sprague chime in about the defense over the coming days.
 
Last edited:

Sprague Cleghorn

User Registered
Aug 14, 2013
3,516
504
Edmonton, KY
Defense:

1st pair: Harvey is definitely slightly better than Lidstrom, but Gadsby is better than Quackenbush. I'd call it a wash but you have two defensive minded guys, while my pairing is more balanced.

2nd pair: I think my second pairing definitely has the advantage here. Clapper is a top-25 D of all-time and a Maple Leafs Clancy only is IMO a top-30 d-man. Both Flaman and Wilson are top-60 and top-70ish d-man.

3rd pair: Goodfellow is better than Stanley and I'd call Thomson vs. Stapleton a wash.

Goaltending:

You have the best goalie in the draft and I have one of the worst. Clear advantage to you.
 

tony d

Registered User
Jun 23, 2007
76,596
4,556
Behind A Tree
Thanks for the defense/goalie comparisons.

Defense Pairing 1:

Harvey and Lidstrom are among the best defensemen in the whole draft. Perhaps #2 and #4 respectively (Or #5 depending on how you feel about Shore). Thanks for saying Harvey's the best of the 2. Gadbsy is better than Quackenbush but Quackenbush should hold his own.

Defense Pairing:

Clapper and Clancy are good ones but don't sleep on my 2nd pairing especially Doug Wilson who was a very good offensive defenseman in the 80's for the Blackhawks. Flaman adds defense to the 2nd pairing.

I agree Goodfellow is better than Stanley. Stapleton has a decent offensive game, Thomson is a good 1 as well.

Goalie:

Thanks for saying I have the best goalie here, I agree. Vezina is good as well but yeah Plante is the better 1.

Looking forward to seeing a coaching comparison from you.
 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
35,331
6,500
South Korea
This is by far the hardest series for me to decide who would likely win.

:huh:

Thankfully we have 5 more days to make a decision.
 

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