Juvenile Fillies
1 1/16 miles, 2YO fillies, $2 million (4:40 p.m.)
Once one of the more formful Breeders’ Cup races, this event has seen a succession of longshot winners in the last five years interrupted only by the great Songbird’s short-priced victory three years ago. This year, there’s a clear-cut favorite in Southern California filly Bellafina, an $800,000 baby who comes in off three straight victories including a dominating two-turn score Chandelier last time out. She owns the best speed figure in the field and will be a legitimate favorite, but strange things have been happening in this race in recent years. There’s a ton of early speed signed up, so a pace meltdown can’t be ruled out, and it’s concerning that she has drifted in the stretch in her last two races. And she has to break from the far outside. The best of the east is Jaywalk, winner of Belmont’s Frizette which has produced 3 of the 8 winners of this at Churchill Downs despite being a one-turn race. She’s 3 for 4, but this will be her first try around two turns and she’ll also be part of that anticipated hot early pace. The leader of the Kentucky circuit is Restless Rider, winner of the two-turn Alcibiades at Keeneland. She owns two sprint victories at Churchill Downs, she’s also 3-for-4 lifetime, and her pace-pressing style should give her first run at the leaders if they start to tire. Reflect logged her best speed figure when rallying for second in the Alcibiades and another step forward would put her right in the mix at a decent price. Serengeti Express has freakish victories in her last two starts including a 191⁄2-length score in the Pocahontas over this surface, but she figures to be part of the early speed duel if one develops. Cassies Dreamer, third in the Frizette, has late foot and could be part of the picture at a price if she can overcome a history of poor starts. Sippican Harbor came from far back to win the strangely run Spinaway at Saratoga, but she’ll going two turns on the dirt for the first time. California-based Louisiana- bred Vibrance actually got the early lead on Bellafina in the Chandelier before finishing second, 61⁄2 lengths behind, and she’ll need to make up that gap to be a factor. The rest of the field seems a cut below, although we’re not sure anybody can be ruled out the way this event has been going lately. Splashy Kisses is the filly that finished 191⁄2 lengths behind Serengeti Express in the Pocahontas. Ohio- bred Baby Nina is a hopelessly overmatched longshot.
Juvenile Fillies Selections
1st – RESTLESS RIDER
2nd– JAYWALK
3rd – BELLAFINA
Longshot – REFLECT
1 1/16 miles, 2YO fillies, $2 million (4:40 p.m.)
Once one of the more formful Breeders’ Cup races, this event has seen a succession of longshot winners in the last five years interrupted only by the great Songbird’s short-priced victory three years ago. This year, there’s a clear-cut favorite in Southern California filly Bellafina, an $800,000 baby who comes in off three straight victories including a dominating two-turn score Chandelier last time out. She owns the best speed figure in the field and will be a legitimate favorite, but strange things have been happening in this race in recent years. There’s a ton of early speed signed up, so a pace meltdown can’t be ruled out, and it’s concerning that she has drifted in the stretch in her last two races. And she has to break from the far outside. The best of the east is Jaywalk, winner of Belmont’s Frizette which has produced 3 of the 8 winners of this at Churchill Downs despite being a one-turn race. She’s 3 for 4, but this will be her first try around two turns and she’ll also be part of that anticipated hot early pace. The leader of the Kentucky circuit is Restless Rider, winner of the two-turn Alcibiades at Keeneland. She owns two sprint victories at Churchill Downs, she’s also 3-for-4 lifetime, and her pace-pressing style should give her first run at the leaders if they start to tire. Reflect logged her best speed figure when rallying for second in the Alcibiades and another step forward would put her right in the mix at a decent price. Serengeti Express has freakish victories in her last two starts including a 191⁄2-length score in the Pocahontas over this surface, but she figures to be part of the early speed duel if one develops. Cassies Dreamer, third in the Frizette, has late foot and could be part of the picture at a price if she can overcome a history of poor starts. Sippican Harbor came from far back to win the strangely run Spinaway at Saratoga, but she’ll going two turns on the dirt for the first time. California-based Louisiana- bred Vibrance actually got the early lead on Bellafina in the Chandelier before finishing second, 61⁄2 lengths behind, and she’ll need to make up that gap to be a factor. The rest of the field seems a cut below, although we’re not sure anybody can be ruled out the way this event has been going lately. Splashy Kisses is the filly that finished 191⁄2 lengths behind Serengeti Express in the Pocahontas. Ohio- bred Baby Nina is a hopelessly overmatched longshot.
Juvenile Fillies Selections
1st – RESTLESS RIDER
2nd– JAYWALK
3rd – BELLAFINA
Longshot – REFLECT
