Distaff
1 1/8 miles, 3YO and up fillies & mares, $2 million (4:16 p.m.)
This has been a formful race in recent years and two months ago this was shaping up as no more than a two- or three-horse competition. That may still be the case, but recent events have clouded the picture. First, top eastern female Elate was sidelined due to injury. Then 3-year-old division leader Monomoy Girl was disqualified after racing erratically in the stretch in the Cotillion at Parx. Finally, presumptive favorite Abel Tasman threw in a stinker in last month’s Zenyatta at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert says Abel Tasman was ailing on the day of the Zenyatta she has rebounded with a couple of good workouts, so you can draw a line through that race. The 2017 Kentucky Oaks winner and Distaff runnerup is the best horse in the race if healthy, but good luck getting that 7-2 morning line. Abel’s main competition figures to come from the 3-year-olds. Monomoy Girl, who won this year’s Oaks and is a two- time stakes winner at Churchill, can be forgiven for that debacle on a quirky surface at Parx. She should be the controlling speed but could be compromised by her far outside post position. Midnight Bisou, who was moved up to the top in the Cotillion on the DQ, is a hard knocking 3YO closer and will make her presence felt late, but regular rider Mike Smith chose to stick with Abel Tasman. Canadian-bred Wonder Gadot just missed against Monomoy Girl in the Kentucky Oaks before winning Canada’s biggest race, the Queen’s Plate. But she seems to have regressed since an ill-advised start against the boys in the Travers. Back to the older ladies: Vale Dori picked up the pieces when her stablemate Abel Tasman failed to show up in the Zenyatta; while a win seems unlikely, she’s the one most likely to apply pace pressure to Monomoy Girl. Blue Prize is a decent 5-year-old who beat a mediocre field in the Spinster. But she does love Churchill Downs. Chad Brown’s Chilean import Wow Cat also beat an unimpressive field in the Beldame but is improving and could hit the board. Spinster runnerup Champagne Problems has enjoyed some moderate success in the nation’s mid-section and she draws the 1-hole under Churchill ace Calvin “Bo-rail.” La Force comes in off three good seconds in Southern California, two of them against the retired Unique Bella and most recently ahead of Abel Tasman in the Zenyatta. But this is her first foray outside the Golden State. Mopotism is a frequent participant in Grade 1 and 2 races in California, but she hasn’t won since last January. Beldame third-place finisher Verve’s Tale would do well to hit the bottom of the superfecta.
Distaff Selections
1st – ABEL TASMAN
2nd– MIDNIGHT BISOU
3rd– MONOMOY GIRL
Longshot – CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS
1 1/8 miles, 3YO and up fillies & mares, $2 million (4:16 p.m.)
This has been a formful race in recent years and two months ago this was shaping up as no more than a two- or three-horse competition. That may still be the case, but recent events have clouded the picture. First, top eastern female Elate was sidelined due to injury. Then 3-year-old division leader Monomoy Girl was disqualified after racing erratically in the stretch in the Cotillion at Parx. Finally, presumptive favorite Abel Tasman threw in a stinker in last month’s Zenyatta at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert says Abel Tasman was ailing on the day of the Zenyatta she has rebounded with a couple of good workouts, so you can draw a line through that race. The 2017 Kentucky Oaks winner and Distaff runnerup is the best horse in the race if healthy, but good luck getting that 7-2 morning line. Abel’s main competition figures to come from the 3-year-olds. Monomoy Girl, who won this year’s Oaks and is a two- time stakes winner at Churchill, can be forgiven for that debacle on a quirky surface at Parx. She should be the controlling speed but could be compromised by her far outside post position. Midnight Bisou, who was moved up to the top in the Cotillion on the DQ, is a hard knocking 3YO closer and will make her presence felt late, but regular rider Mike Smith chose to stick with Abel Tasman. Canadian-bred Wonder Gadot just missed against Monomoy Girl in the Kentucky Oaks before winning Canada’s biggest race, the Queen’s Plate. But she seems to have regressed since an ill-advised start against the boys in the Travers. Back to the older ladies: Vale Dori picked up the pieces when her stablemate Abel Tasman failed to show up in the Zenyatta; while a win seems unlikely, she’s the one most likely to apply pace pressure to Monomoy Girl. Blue Prize is a decent 5-year-old who beat a mediocre field in the Spinster. But she does love Churchill Downs. Chad Brown’s Chilean import Wow Cat also beat an unimpressive field in the Beldame but is improving and could hit the board. Spinster runnerup Champagne Problems has enjoyed some moderate success in the nation’s mid-section and she draws the 1-hole under Churchill ace Calvin “Bo-rail.” La Force comes in off three good seconds in Southern California, two of them against the retired Unique Bella and most recently ahead of Abel Tasman in the Zenyatta. But this is her first foray outside the Golden State. Mopotism is a frequent participant in Grade 1 and 2 races in California, but she hasn’t won since last January. Beldame third-place finisher Verve’s Tale would do well to hit the bottom of the superfecta.
Distaff Selections
1st – ABEL TASMAN
2nd– MIDNIGHT BISOU
3rd– MONOMOY GIRL
Longshot – CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS
