Speculation: Yzerman's strategy

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Message board posts are not "unbearable." Not any more unbearable than people who overreact to any and all criticism.

Secondly, Detroit fans don't need to chill. They can and should do, think and say whatever they want.
If they're unhappy about year 7 out of the playoffs? Fine. If they're frustrated Yzerman has now tossed in his hand twice during the rebuild (first on AA/Mantha, now on Hronek/Bertuzzi/Vrana), so be it. There's nothing outlandish about it.

Nobody thinks there's any "magic way" to get superstars by finishing at the bottom. You can still screw up those picks.

But we're also not stupid. We know exactly where the NHL's difference makers are most like to be found. That's the very top of the draft.

And we know that the worst place to finish in hockey is on the outside of the bubble - where you don't get a good crack at the elite talent and you don't get in the playoffs.

Yzerman knows the state of this team. He understands it's still quite a ways away from competing. He knows he's still got to find the right players.

And we all know that picking 10th or 11th and 17th this year... well, even if you land core players at those spots, you can't really count on them for four years.

So what? 10-11 years with no playoffs? If they pan out?
Or are you going to UFA and trade your way there? Yzerman knows that's a pretty difficult way to build a team.

I think Yzerman is on a path that's going to make it hard for him to get the kind of talent he needs to turn this thing around before Year 10.

In that respect, that's why I respect the Blues' tank.
Kind of like the Rangers a few years ago.

They just said, f*** it.
We're going on a tank mission. It'll be quick. It'll be painful. But hopefully it doesn't last long.

I don't think we see the light at the end of the tunnel here in Detroit yet.

Opinions are free to have. Literally it is only you who would frame dealing AA as “folding”. Guy was never anything but a more Greek, worse at hockey Michael Grabner. Not a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, but if you’re gonna try and use him as more than that, you’re gonna have a bad time.

I thought from your earlier posts in this very thread that “Yzerman has no clue what he’s doing”.

The whole crux of any building in any professional sport is that you attempt to limit your reliance on luck. Build a philosophy on rock and even if you get f***ed over and over in the lottery, you’re still gonna be okay. And then if you do hit the lottery, you’re ready right then to take advantage.

It’s why Yzerman did stuff like deal Mantha, deal Vrana, add guys like Walman and Maatta and Perron. Get those who buy into what you’re trying to do and get rid of those who don’t.

I don’t respect tanking in any way. And f***, the Rangers aren’t even good again because they tanked. The players they tanked for in Kakko and Lafreniere and then K’Andre Miller at the end of the first? They’re way less important than landing Shesterkin in the fourth, getting Adam Fox because they’re New York, getting Jacob Trouba because they’re New York, swapping Brassard for Zibanejad (robbing Ottawa in the process).

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don’t respect tanking in any way. And f***, the Rangers aren’t even good again because they tanked. The players they tanked for in Kakko and Lafreniere and then K’Andre Miller at the end of the first? They’re way less important than landing Shesterkin in the fourth, getting Adam Fox because they’re New York, getting Jacob Trouba because they’re New York, swapping Brassard for Zibanejad (robbing Ottawa in the process).

And getting Panarin because they're New York. And getting Trocheck because they're New York. And probably keeping Patrick Kane because they're New York.

You know what? f*** the Rangers.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

And getting Panarin because they're New York. And getting Trocheck because they're New York. And probably keeping Patrick Kane because they're New York.

You know what? f*** the Rangers.

I mean, at least Panarin and Trocheck, they wrote fat checks for. They literally got a Norris winning D for free on a cheap contract because he wouldn't sign with anyone else.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I mean, at least Panarin and Trocheck, they wrote fat checks for. They literally got a Norris winning D for free on a cheap contract because he wouldn't sign with anyone else.

Even more reason to say f*** them.

 

[jkutswings]

In my opinion, the league had a choice. It was help teams at the bottom OR deter teams from tanking. You can't do both.

Patently false. The NHL is simply too lazy to do their job.

1) Completely remove the lottery. Standings only.

2) Have the Competition Committee do what they're paid to do. Every year they investigate the bottom 5 teams. If there's any evidence that a team deliberately put draft position over playing to win, then they forfeit their first round pick.

If you get even ONE team losing a first rounder, tanking is permanently extinct. And the worst teams get the best players every year.

 

[MBH]

Opinions are free to have. Literally it is only you who would frame dealing AA as “folding”. Guy was never anything but a more Greek, worse at hockey Michael Grabner. Not a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, but if you’re gonna try and use him as more than that, you’re gonna have a bad time.

I thought from your earlier posts in this very thread that “Yzerman has no clue what he’s doing”.

The whole crux of any building in any professional sport is that you attempt to limit your reliance on luck. Build a philosophy on rock and even if you get f***ed over and over in the lottery, you’re still gonna be okay. And then if you do hit the lottery, you’re ready right then to take advantage.

It’s why Yzerman did stuff like deal Mantha, deal Vrana, add guys like Walman and Maatta and Perron. Get those who buy into what you’re trying to do and get rid of those who don’t.

I don’t respect tanking in any way. And f***, the Rangers aren’t even good again because they tanked. The players they tanked for in Kakko and Lafreniere and then K’Andre Miller at the end of the first? They’re way less important than landing Shesterkin in the fourth, getting Adam Fox because they’re New York, getting Jacob Trouba because they’re New York, swapping Brassard for Zibanejad (robbing Ottawa in the process).

He knows enough to know his team can't win.
But he doesn't know enough to then let it sink to it's natural level.
Bring in a couple vets to eat hard minutes and help the kids.
That's all we needed.

You can't Perron/Copp/Kubalik/Chiarot/Maatta into the playoffs, so why bother?

As for your Rangers assessment - it's true they landed the most skilled UFA to hit the market in a long time.
And Fox. And Trouba (who was viewed as a toxic contract only a year ago).

But anyone who dismisses Lafreniere and Kakko is being kind of foolish.

Rangers 5 on 5 points
Panarin 40
Trocheck 30
Zibanjed 29
Chytil 27
Kaako 24
Lafreniere 23
Kreider 21

Kakko and Lafreniere would both rank 2nd on Detroit in 5 on 5 points.
Kakko is 2 points behind Larkin and Lafreniere is 3 points behind Larkin.

That's what solid secondary scoring looks like in the NHL.

Watch what happens to their numbers if they ever get top line, top PP unit minutes.

 

[Bench]

You can't Perron/Copp/Kubalik/Chiarot/Maatta into the playoffs, so why bother?

Even you have to admit they are knocking on the door if Bert and Vrana contribute literally anything this year.

Ignoring that the anticipated top two goal scorers of the team basically did nothing for them all year, and then claiming it was all hopeless from the start, I dunno man. Feels like they had some bad luck that derailed a team that would be at minimum fighting with the Islanders for a WC.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

Hi. I'm bored. So I broke down the draft position of the current top 25 scorers (26 actually, there is a 3 way tie for the 24 spot) Here's what I found:

5 of them are first overall picks
5 were picked between 2 and 5
4 between 6 and 10
3 between 11 and 15
3 between 16 and 32
2 between 33 and 64
3 after 65
1 was undrafted

4 of the top 10 scorers were top 5 picks

Of the 49 active NHL players who were top 3 picks, 8 of them are top 26 in points this year

16 of the top 26 scorers were available to be drafted by "middling teams"

9 of the top 26 were available to be drafted by playoff teams

1 of the top 20 (Panarin) was UNAVAILABLE to all tanking teams because he chose to sign with champion Chicago

 

[SoupNazi]

Even you have to admit they are knocking on the door if Bert and Vrana contribute literally anything this year.

This is true, but he won't.

 

[heyfolks]

Yzerplan. Wings haven't been in the playoffs since 2016. Page after page is talking being competitive again in 4-5 years. 11-12 years of lottery picks. The Yzerplan reads a lot like the Oilers plan. He should have dumped this talent earlier and should never have signed Perron, Maata, HUSSO, Copp, Chairot or Kublik.


Seriously, kif the plan is to suck and get top 5 picks, this was Yzerman making the post season after 8 years as GM is not exactly a plan of genius.

 

[Run the Jewels]

He tanked in 2020 - he had no other choice with our talent, cap structure and prospect pool - and was rewarded with the 4th overall pick. We are not getting a generational talent unless we somehow luck out with one of our top 10 picks becoming a generational talent.

He's going to build depth throughout the organization and trade away guys in their prime who are not part of the long term plan. Hronek and Bertuzzi are the most recent examples.

My guess - and it's obviously nothing more than a guess - is we will roll with 3 Larkin level centers and a top 4 on defense of 6'4+" guys who can skate and have skill. That will be the core.

Will it work? I sure hope so.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

He knows enough to know his team can't win.
But he doesn't know enough to then let it sink to it's natural level.
Bring in a couple vets to eat hard minutes and help the kids.
That's all we needed.

You can't Perron/Copp/Kubalik/Chiarot/Maatta into the playoffs, so why bother?

As for your Rangers assessment - it's true they landed the most skilled UFA to hit the market in a long time.
And Fox. And Trouba (who was viewed as a toxic contract only a year ago).

But anyone who dismisses Lafreniere and Kakko is being kind of foolish.

Rangers 5 on 5 points
Panarin 40
Trocheck 30
Zibanjed 29
Chytil 27
Kaako 24
Lafreniere 23
Kreider 21

Kakko and Lafreniere would both rank 2nd on Detroit in 5 on 5 points.
Kakko is 2 points behind Larkin and Lafreniere is 3 points behind Larkin.

That's what solid secondary scoring looks like in the NHL.

Watch what happens to their numbers if they ever get top line, top PP unit minutes.

Dismissing them? No. But you're not tanking to get secondary scoring. If the Wings had them, you wouldn't be trumpeting them as successes. The point of this discussion is that the Rangers calling out that they were tanking? It's not why they were good. They landed a 1OA and a 2OA through lottery luck... and from that, they've essentially landed two 2008 Dan Clearys, 20 goal guys playing 3rd line minutes.

They got good again because they drafted a superstar in net in Igor, they swindled Zibanejad out of Ottawa before he boomed, and added a D better than Seider for an ELC without using a draft pick.

The Rangers are an example of what Yzerman should be doing, making moves around the team to keep it steady so you can take advantage of luck when it pops up. Frankly, they're not a tanking success story, they're an okay run franchise with a lot of inherent advantages.

Yzerplan. Wings haven't been in the playoffs since 2016. Page after page is talking being competitive again in 4-5 years. 11-12 years of lottery picks. The Yzerplan reads a lot like the Oilers plan. He should have dumped this talent earlier and should never have signed Perron, Maata, HUSSO, Copp, Chairot or Kublik.


Seriously, kif the plan is to suck and get top 5 picks, this was Yzerman making the post season after 8 years as GM is not exactly a plan of genius.

The plan isn’t to suck and get top 5 picks. If you think that’s what Yzerman is doing, you are blind.

Also, Yzerman has only been GM since 2019. He actually had two years in which he essentially burned down the roster and the time on the really bad contracts. The second year also had a global pandemic that borked pretty much everyone.

Yzerman knows they need elite talent and the best place to get it is high. He also knows/thinks he’s got quite a few high end pieces already so he doesn’t want to waste the development of Raymond and Seider or punt before they’ve even made it on Edvinsson, Cossa, and others.

He would love to draft top 3 a few more times… but he’d rather make sure that the really good players he’s already picked don’t stagnate and have their careers die

 

[StargateSG1]

 

[MBH]

Patently false. The NHL is simply too lazy to do their job.

1) Completely remove the lottery. Standings only.

2) Have the Competition Committee do what they're paid to do. Every year they investigate the bottom 5 teams. If there's any evidence that a team deliberately put draft position over playing to win, then they forfeit their first round pick.

If you get even ONE team losing a first rounder, tanking is permanently extinct. And the worst teams get the best players every year.

#2 is silly.

Dismissing them? No. But you're not tanking to get secondary scoring. If the Wings had them, you wouldn't be trumpeting them as successes. The point of this discussion is that the Rangers calling out that they were tanking? It's not why they were good. They landed a 1OA and a 2OA through lottery luck... and from that, they've essentially landed two 2008 Dan Clearys, 20 goal guys playing 3rd line minutes.

They got good again because they drafted a superstar in net in Igor, they swindled Zibanejad out of Ottawa before he boomed, and added a D better than Seider for an ELC without using a draft pick.

The Rangers are an example of what Yzerman should be doing, making moves around the team to keep it steady so you can take advantage of luck when it pops up. Frankly, they're not a tanking success story, they're an okay run franchise with a lot of inherent advantages.

My God, if the Rangers aren't a tanking success story.
Take out a full-page ad. Tell your customers it's going to suck for 1-2 years.
Stop sucking after 2 years.

Gonna be interesting see what the Blues do. There's a lot of talk they're going to try and resign OReilly and Tarasenko.

 

[MBH]

Even you have to admit they are knocking on the door if Bert and Vrana contribute literally anything this year.

Ignoring that the anticipated top two goal scorers of the team basically did nothing for them all year, and then claiming it was all hopeless from the start, I dunno man. Feels like they had some bad luck that derailed a team that would be at minimum fighting with the Islanders for a WC.

And the Sens can say the same thing about Josh Norris - better than anyone we were missing.

Here's the obvious question.
If Bert and Vrana give the team the 6-7 points they need to still be in the hunt...then why sell?
Because Yzerman knows they weren't really contenders for the playoffs.

He said it himself.
He had a plan to sell.
Under no circumstances did he expect to be a buyer.
When the Wings went on a little tear post-all star break, it gave him pause...but the Ottawa series confirmed what he already believed.... The Wings still had quite a bit of work to do.

I don't know what the plan will be for next year.
But there's the possibility the following players who were on the team to start this season won't be on the team next year.

C: Suter
W: Bertuzzi, Vrana, Sundqvist, Erne
D: Hronek, Oesterle, Hagg, Lindstrom, Pysyk
G: Nedeljkovic
---
That's nearly half the roster.
And other than Bert/Hronek, it doesn't feel like we're losing much.

 

[Ezekial]

#2 is silly.


My God, if the Rangers aren't a tanking success story.
Take out a full-page ad. Tell your customers it's going to suck for 1-2 years.
Stop sucking after 2 years.

They aren't successful because they tanked as was clearly outlined to you.


If it weren't for that ad in the paper they would've never got Adam Fox I guess. I've seen you bring up that ad before who f***ing cares

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

#2 is silly.


My God, if the Rangers aren't a tanking success story.
Take out a full-page ad. Tell your customers it's going to suck for 1-2 years.
Stop sucking after 2 years.

Gonna be interesting see what the Blues do. There's a lot of talk they're going to try and resign OReilly and Tarasenko.

The Rangers aren't good because of the picks they got because they decided to suck.

Yeah, they did that letter... and that let them sell to the New York fanbase that dealing guys like Zuccarello, JT Miller, McDonagh, and Nash was gonna be the next thing they had to do. Nash was finished at the end of that year, Zuccarello took a header off the cliff in his production... and it's arguable that the Rangers may have been better off keeping McDonagh and Miller.

But frankly, you look at the players and picks they landed for these guys? Not a f***in one is a part of why the team is good now. They were able to relatively whiff on a 2OA and 1OA in Kakko and Lafreniere. Sorry, but 30 point players aren't what pull you out of the muck.

They got good because they were able to land Fox for free and he was a Norris trophy level D. They added a Hart level winger in Panarin (admittedly, they paid a whole bunch for him). Mika Zibanejad went from a 50 point meh to a 70-80 point stud and Igor Shesterkin picked back up to where King Henrik used to trod. Hell, they got ADA for cheap for a year or two because of the nightmare he is.

They're more a story of why if you're a rebuilding team, you should be trying to go after the 10-11 million dollar guy because you grab elite talent when it's available and not at some pre-determined "our team is ready to win" state.

But sure, whatever. the Rangers are good again because they put out a letter in the f***in New York Post in 2018.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

And the Sens can say the same thing about Josh Norris - better than anyone we were missing.

Here's the obvious question.
If Bert and Vrana give the team the 6-7 points they need to still be in the hunt...then why sell?
Because Yzerman knows they weren't really contenders for the playoffs.

He said it himself.
He had a plan to sell.
Under no circumstances did he expect to be a buyer.
When the Wings went on a little tear post-all star break, it gave him pause...but the Ottawa series confirmed what he already believed.... The Wings still had quite a bit of work to do.

I don't know what the plan will be for next year.
But there's the possibility the following players who were on the team to start this season won't be on the team next year.

C: Suter
W: Bertuzzi, Vrana, Sundqvist, Erne
D: Hronek, Oesterle, Hagg, Lindstrom, Pysyk
G: Nedeljkovic
---
That's nearly half the roster.
And other than Bert/Hronek, it doesn't feel like we're losing much.

WHEN did he say "I have a plan to sell"? Did he say it in July last year? October? after Bert got injured the first time? After Vrana went into PAP?

Under no circumstances, with what happened from October-January (Bertuzzi hurt, Vrana a space cadet, Fabbri slowly coming back, etc.) was he going to be a buyer. He wasn't going to buy into a short lived run up, as you say, but if half the top 6 didn't magically implode in the first couple weeks of the season? I would think that would change a lot of stuff.

And I mean, looking at your list there...

Bertuzzi was hardly on the team this year
Vrana was for... one game?
Erne was for like ten?
Pysyk was literally injured before the season started
Oesterle, Hagg, and Lindstrom are complete nobodies in terms of being NHL players
Sunny was always a plug and they'll replace him with another plug.

The only real bummer is Nedeljkovic and frankly, he was slowing down before this year if we're being honest... and we landed Husso and have Cossa coming in the wings... and goalies are all f***in voodoo unless you hit the lotto with a guy.

In other words, the guys in your list were either unavailable all year or are quite literally the type of players who you may as well plop a nameless jersey on because in terms of the NHL, they're all the same damn dime-a-dozen guy.

 

[MBH]

The Rangers aren't good because of the picks they got because they decided to suck.

Yeah, they did that letter... and that let them sell to the New York fanbase that dealing guys like Zuccarello, JT Miller, McDonagh, and Nash was gonna be the next thing they had to do. Nash was finished at the end of that year, Zuccarello took a header off the cliff in his production... and it's arguable that the Rangers may have been better off keeping McDonagh and Miller.

But frankly, you look at the players and picks they landed for these guys? Not a f***in one is a part of why the team is good now. They were able to relatively whiff on a 2OA and 1OA in Kakko and Lafreniere. Sorry, but 30 point players aren't what pull you out of the muck.

They got good because they were able to land Fox for free and he was a Norris trophy level D. They added a Hart level winger in Panarin (admittedly, they paid a whole bunch for him). Mika Zibanejad went from a 50 point meh to a 70-80 point stud and Igor Shesterkin picked back up to where King Henrik used to trod. Hell, they got ADA for cheap for a year or two because of the nightmare he is.

They're more a story of why if you're a rebuilding team, you should be trying to go after the 10-11 million dollar guy because you grab elite talent when it's available and not at some pre-determined "our team is ready to win" state.

But sure, whatever. the Rangers are good again because they put out a letter in the f***in New York Post in 2018.

Strawmen everywhere.
The Rangers made a conscious effort to suck and rebuild.
And they did exactly that.

It's indisputable.

They tanked.
They took advantage of the chance to sign Panarin.
They've brought their rookies along slowly.

And they went to the conference finals last year.

 

[MBH]

WHEN did he say "I have a plan to sell"? Did he say it in July last year? October? after Bert got injured the first time? After Vrana went into PAP?

Under no circumstances, with what happened from October-January (Bertuzzi hurt, Vrana a space cadet, Fabbri slowly coming back, etc.) was he going to be a buyer. He wasn't going to buy into a short lived run up, as you say, but if half the top 6 didn't magically implode in the first couple weeks of the season? I would think that would change a lot of stuff.

And I mean, looking at your list there...

Bertuzzi was hardly on the team this year
Vrana was for... one game?
Erne was for like ten?
Pysyk was literally injured before the season started
Oesterle, Hagg, and Lindstrom are complete nobodies in terms of being NHL players
Sunny was always a plug and they'll replace him with another plug.

The only real bummer is Nedeljkovic and frankly, he was slowing down before this year if we're being honest... and we landed Husso and have Cossa coming in the wings... and goalies are all f***in voodoo unless you hit the lotto with a guy.

In other words, the guys in your list were either unavailable all year or are quite literally the type of players who you may as well plop a nameless jersey on because in terms of the NHL, they're all the same damn dime-a-dozen guy.

He told us this was his plan during his press conference. He didn't specify exactly when he made this determination - other than to say he was planning on selling before the post-allstar game hot streak.

Most people - not even the guys even paid to say nice thing things about this team - really believed this was a playoff team to start the season.

Look, if you believe this team was a playoff team, I'm sorry you fooled yourself.

December should have taken care of that silly notion.

 

[StargateSG1]

Strawmen everywhere.
The Rangers made a conscious effort to suck and rebuild.
And they did exactly that.

It's indisputable.

They tanked.
They took advantage of the chance to sign Panarin.
They've brought their rookies along slowly.

And they went to the conference finals last year.

Only difference is that Rangers had valuable assets to trade, and they got lucky in lottery.
When Yzerman came in, he had basically "Arizona MidWest" and capped out with crappy Holland contracts.
No one to sell of value. So it would always take way more time to rebuild.

He told us this was his plan during his press conference. He didn't specify exactly when he made this determination - other than to say he was planning on selling before the post-allstar game hot streak.

Most people - not even the guys even paid to say nice thing things about this team - really believed this was a playoff team to start the season.

Look, if you believe this team was a playoff team, I'm sorry you fooled yourself.

December should have taken care of that silly notion.

Some people here think they always "know better" then anyone else, including what the GM himself says.
I kinda chuckle at it, it's entertaining.

 

[MBH]

Only difference is that Rangers had valuable assets to trade, and they got lucky in lottery.
When Yzerman came in, he had basically "Arizona MidWest" and capped out with crappy Holland contracts.
No one to sell of value. So it would always take way more time to rebuild.

No doubt.
Holland neglected this team for years (though most of the TrustTheYzerplanners were InKenWeTrusters until nearly the bitter end).

But between Yzerman and Holland, it's seven years now.
And there isn't anything close to Panarin on the UFA market this year.
Nor do we seem to have any game-breaking talent on its way up through the draft.

While elements of the Yzerman rebuild are good - it's also not evident that we've drafted any forwards who will be challenging for Hart trophies at any point in their career.
And generally, you need those types - whether they come from the draft, UFA or trade.

What is the Yzerman at this point?

Sign veterans and hope to squeak into the playoffs?
And when we don't, trade them for 2nd rounders?

And pick 12th?


How many years of that could you reasonably stomach before you question whether it's working?

Because, we're kind of at the ceiling of what can be accomplished without elite talent.
More talented teams than ours have fewer points than the Wings.

 

[norrisnick]

Some people here think they always "know better" then anyone else, including what the GM himself says.
I kinda chuckle at it, it's entertaining.

You don't say...

Quick question, what are your thoughts on Yzerman bringing in some vets this past offseason to stabilize the team around the kids?

 

[MBH]

Only difference is that Rangers had valuable assets to trade, and they got lucky in lottery.
When Yzerman came in, he had basically "Arizona MidWest" and capped out with crappy Holland contracts.
No one to sell of value. So it would always take way more time to rebuild.


Some people here think they always "know better" then anyone else, including what the GM himself says.
I kinda chuckle at it, it's entertaining.

I'm just listening to the GM himself struggle to articulate his plan.
Listen to him describe the challenge of rebuilding and tell me you know what the Yzerplan is.

 

[StargateSG1]

You don't say...

Quick question, what are your thoughts on Yzerman bringing in some vets this past offseason to stabilize the team around the kids?

I do say, and he had to fill the roster, there were too many roster spots open.
I might have done 1 or 2 fewer, but it's semantics.