Your top 10 all time list, as of the 2022 offseason

Neutrinos

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I am someone that generally values offensive ability more but Russell's such an outlier when it comes to defense that it doesn't matter. And individual scoring is generally greatly overvalued, especially for a player like Wilt who was not a good creator and tanked his team's offenses as a result.


Win shares are a garbage stat that nobody takes seriously. Especially not defensive win shares from before blocks and steals started getting recorded.

So, you've made a claim that Wilt tanked his team's offense, but offered nothing statistically to support it

I'm struggling to see how in a league with no 3-point line, it would benefit a team's offense for a player making 50% of his shots to pass it to a players making 40% of theirs

Okay, Win Shares are a garbage stat, so, which analytics do you suggest we use to show the impact of individual players of that era?
 
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Aladyyn

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So, you've made a claim that Wilt tanked his team's offense, but offered nothing statistically to support it

I'm struggling to see how in a league with no 3-point line, it would benefit a team's offense for a player making 50% of his shots to pass it to a players making 40% of theirs

Okay, Win Shares are a garbage stat, so, which analytics do you suggest we use to show the impact of individual players of that era?
You can look at how his team's offenses did when he was scoring big numbers and when he didn't, it paints a pretty clear picture.
 

Neutrinos

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You can look at how his team's offenses did when he was scoring big numbers and when he didn't, it paints a pretty clear picture.

I would love to! Please post them so I can take a look
 
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Hockey Outsider

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Jan 16, 2005
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@Neutrinos - I'm not much of a basketball fan and don't know enough about the sport to have an informed opinion as to whether Bryant is top ten all-time or not.

However, I can say he's a huge cultural icon and, based on a quick search that I did, most all-time lists have him in or just outside the top ten.

You posted recently in another thread that Bryant might not be top ten from his own generation. (I think this was mostly due to Bryant's underwhelming advanced stats). Curious to hear - do you have a theory as to why there's (apparently) a disconnect between how Bryant is generally ranked, and what the advanced stats seem to show?
 

LightningStorm

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Dec 19, 2008
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@Neutrinos - I'm not much of a basketball fan and don't know enough about the sport to have an informed opinion as to whether Bryant is top ten all-time or not.

However, I can say he's a huge cultural icon and, based on a quick search that I did, most all-time lists have him in or just outside the top ten.

You posted recently in another thread that Bryant might not be top ten from his own generation. (I think this was mostly due to Bryant's underwhelming advanced stats). Curious to hear - do you have a theory as to why there's (apparently) a disconnect between how Bryant is generally ranked, and what the advanced stats seem to show?
I'll let @Neutrinos speak for himself, but since you said you aren't much of an NBA fan, one thing is NBA culture is much more obsessed with rings than NHL culture. Even the brief obsession of Toews as a "winner" pales in comparison to the malignant toxic ring culture of the NBA.

So in the case of Kobe, winning 5 rings really puts him high all time in the minds of a lot of fans. Plus since he won his first 3 early in his career from age 21-23, the "winner" narrative was established early. When the Kobe/Lebron comparison was at its height in the late 2000's, Kobe's 3 rings (before even winning 4 and 5) were the main talking point in favor of him, despite:

1. He won all 3 before Lebron was even in the league.
2. Shaq was the best player on all 3.

I don't even think Kobe is the worst example of his generation of a player being ranked too high because of rings. Outside of rings, I still think a case can be made for him being top 10 all time. I think an even worse example is Tim Duncan, who was drafted by a great organization like the Spurs by complete fluke. They were a contending team with David Robinson, but he got injured the season before drafting Duncan, which is the only reason they were in that position. Without obsessing over rings, Duncan's tier is Kevin Garnett, a great player, MVP, and HOF, but nobody anyone considers top 10.
 
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Neutrinos

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Sep 23, 2016
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@Neutrinos - I'm not much of a basketball fan and don't know enough about the sport to have an informed opinion as to whether Bryant is top ten all-time or not.

However, I can say he's a huge cultural icon and, based on a quick search that I did, most all-time lists have him in or just outside the top ten.

You posted recently in another thread that Bryant might not be top ten from his own generation. (I think this was mostly due to Bryant's underwhelming advanced stats). Curious to hear - do you have a theory as to why there's (apparently) a disconnect between how Bryant is generally ranked, and what the advanced stats seem to show?

As a matter of fact, I do!

The NBA had experienced unprecedented growth throughout the '90's, however, given the notable drop in ratings which immediately followed Jordan's 2nd retirement, the owners likely realized theirs wasn't just a star driven league, it required a "huge cultural icon" to be its leading man

Shaq didn't have the look, personality, or style that made kids want to emulate him on the playground, and while Iverson checked all the boxes, he was too street for corporate America

But the clean-cut, well-spoken, uber athletic 2guard on the Lakers whose impressive highlights on ESPN are already drawing comparisons to the GOAT? Yep, he'll do!

The mouthpieces hired by the networks to sell the on-court product before, during, and after each game aren't going to jeopardize ratings by devaluing their best sellers in front of the paying customers
 
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Neutrinos

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I'll let @Neutrinos speak for himself, but since you said you aren't much of an NBA fan, one thing is NBA culture is much more obsessed with rings than NHL culture. Even the brief obsession of Toews as a "winner" pales in comparison to the malignant toxic ring culture of the NBA.

So in the case of Kobe, winning 5 rings really puts him high all time in the minds of a lot of fans. Plus since he won his first 3 early in his career from age 21-23, the "winner" narrative was established early. When the Kobe/Lebron comparison was at its height in the late 2000's, Kobe's 3 rings (before even winning 4 and 5) were the main talking point in favor of him, despite:

1. He won all 3 before Lebron was even in the league.
2. Shaq was the best player on all 3.

I don't even think Kobe is the worst example of his generation of a player being ranked too high because of rings. Outside of rings, I still think a case can be made for him being top 10 all time. I think an even worse example is Tim Duncan, who was drafted by a great organization like the Spurs by complete fluke. They were a contending team with David Robinson, but he got injured the season before drafting Duncan, which is the only reason they were in that position. Without obsessing over rings, Duncan's tier is Kevin Garnett, a great player, MVP, and HOF, but nobody anyone considers top 10.
Garnett provided considerably more on-court value to his teams than Kobe

Now, check this out...

I'm about to support that statement using facts

Kobe's career highs:
28 PER, 15.3 Win Shares, .224 WS/48, 7.6 BPM, 8.0 VORP

Garnett's career highs:
29.4 PER, 18.3 Win Shares, .272 WS/48, 10.2 BPM, 10 VORP
 
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Hockey Outsider

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Thank you both for the insightful answers.

I know hardly anything about those advanced stats (PER, win shares, VORP, etc). Is it possible Bryant brought something to the table that isn't captured by those metrics? (Kind of like how Martin Brodeur supporters argue - correctly - that he's underrated just by looking at save percentage because it doesn't capture his puckhandling skills). As I said, I don't really know (or care) if Bryant is top ten all-time, but I find these "contrarian" arguments interesting.
 

MVP of West Hollywd

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Kobe's advanced stats aren't too bad. He is top 20 all time in Win Shares and top 4-5 in multiple seasons (03, 06, 07, 08). He is top 5 in VORP in 03 and 06-09.

Some things that could be missed by advanced stats

- His playmaking may have been understated by his assists per game. On paper someone who shoots that much and only averages 5-6 assists doesn't really look like that much of a passer. I have Kobe as one of the best dribbling and passing SGs ever and was his team's version of the PG with Fisher often being the off ball guard. I think his passing with players like Shaq, Pau and Odom was key to his team.

- He is one of the most best difficult shots makers of all time, those midrange shots might not look as good in efficiency stats, but it's valuable in the playoffs to be able to make it agains heavy defense and to have versatility to your game in terms of moves. For example James Harden on paper has had a more efficient scoring career than Kobe but imo his gimmicky game is more flawed and easier to stop in the playoffs. In the 90s David Robinson had more efficient scoring than Hakeem but Hakeem game translated more to playoffs because he had more skilled repetoire while Robinson was athleticism driven. The stats don't always capture the skills.

Kobe is probably more like fringe top 20 in peak play but passes some players for career due to having long and durable career, to end up somewhere in the mid teens.
 

MVP of West Hollywd

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So, even as the greatest defensive player by far in league history, Russell's on-court value to his team was considerably less than that which Chamberlain was contributing to his

The hockey equivalent might be something like Bourque vs Langway

But the thing is, there are other "Langways" in Russell's era or near it. Let's take Nate Thurmond. He is quite possibly the greatest low post defensive center ever and later became famous for how well he defended Kareem in a playoff upset, and while not known for shotblocking like a Russell, he was still pretty respectable I think, he was already starting to be cooked at age 32 the first year the NBA tracked them but he put up 2.9 per game that year. In terms of offense he put up some 20 points a game seasons but on weak efficiency and shooting, and was a decent passer - Not great, but the offensive production looks a little better than players like Ben Wallace and Mutombo at least.

So Bill Russell and Nate Thurmond are both ELITE defensive centers, but one won 5 MVPs and Thurmond was not considered in that class, in terms of MVP finish it's roughly like comparing Jason Kidd (has an outlier 2nd place year) to Michael Jordan (5x winner). Why did they like Russell so much more? They gave Russell more regular season MVPs than WILT, the guy who's entire MO is blowing the statistical door down in the regular season. They gave him 5 while West and Oscar, both putting up flashier offensive numbers, had 1 combined. For whatever reason, they saw WAY more in Russell than just another great defensive center like Thurmond.

There were other guys fitting the Langway type defensive ace description as well. While he played more of the Draymond type position, Dave DeBusschere on the Knicks was considered was the catalyst after he got traded there that made them lights out and a 2 time champion in the 1970s. Yet nobody would ever confuse DeBusschere for an MVP caliber star, because it's understood the offense isn't there. Later on in the 70s and early 80s Bobby Jones would also go on an elite defensive run.

For whatever reason in his time period Russell was rated not just an MVP level player compared to these other defensive first guys, but a 5x MVP, GOAT level player. Perhaps it was weird at the time too that someone could dominate so much on defense. Before Russell the dominant players were - Mikan: Great on defense but also the best player in the league on offense for the first half of his prime, then settling into more like Hakeem/Duncan level on offense as below a few players but still good, Pettit - Elite level scoring PF like Dirk/Malone, Schayes - elite level shooting PF, Cousy - elite level PG playmaker/slasher, and then players like West, Baylor, Oscar and WIlt. Nobody had really relied on defense as much as Russell.

This is before considering from a team results perspective it's nearly impossible for the Celtics to win that much unless Russell was one of the greatest impact players of all time. They 8-peated! Nobody does that, in any sport. The problem of course, is that you gradually lose players to age and decline, and this is exactly what should have taken down the Celtics halfway through their run. Cousy - gone, Heinsohn - gone, Frank Ramsey - gone, etc. In a normal world this leads to transition period, but they kept winning in the post Cousy years, the most likely reason being cause they had a SUPERstar. To win that much you NEED to have the biggest dog in the yard or damn close to it. It can't just be Sam Jones, John Havlicek and a center roughly as good as Sam Jones and John Havlicek. Those teams might succeed in the regular season but if you you go against these squads with stars like Wilt, West and Oscar more often than not the individual brilliance is going to beat you somewhere along the way. Your best case scenario is 1-2 cute runs like late 80s or 00s Pistons or maybe 70s Knicks, but you can't win 11 titles in 13 years. In the post title years those teams eventually got run over by superstar teams like 91 Bulls beating the Pistons and 00s Pistons losing to players like Duncan, Wade, Lebron and big 3 Celtics. In the late 60s when Wilt left the Sixers they did pretty good with players like Billy Cunningham Hal Greer Chet Walker, they went 55-27. Kind of like the Bulls in Jordan first retirement year, or the Raptors the year Lowry left. But the 69 Sixers lose in 5 games in the first round, because ultimately, that's just what happens to most teams with 3 2nd tier stars instead of an MVP guy. This most likely is the destiny of the Celtics if Russell was only as good as players like Jones and Havlicek, maybe they sneak out one title, but most years end in frustration when the other team has Wilt or West.

I will admit there's a lot I don't understand about how Russell is that good but the supporting evidence all points one way.
 
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bambamcam4ever

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Kobe's advanced stats aren't too bad. He is top 20 all time in Win Shares and top 4-5 in multiple seasons (03, 06, 07, 08). He is top 5 in VORP in 03 and 06-09.

Some things that could be missed by advanced stats

- His playmaking may have been understated by his assists per game. On paper someone who shoots that much and only averages 5-6 assists doesn't really look like that much of a passer. I have Kobe as one of the best dribbling and passing SGs ever and was his team's version of the PG with Fisher often being the off ball guard. I think his passing with players like Shaq, Pau and Odom was key to his team.

- He is one of the most best difficult shots makers of all time, those midrange shots might not look as good in efficiency stats, but it's valuable in the playoffs to be able to make it agains heavy defense and to have versatility to your game in terms of moves. For example James Harden on paper has had a more efficient scoring career than Kobe but imo his gimmicky game is more flawed and easier to stop in the playoffs. In the 90s David Robinson had more efficient scoring than Hakeem but Hakeem game translated more to playoffs because he had more skilled repetoire while Robinson was athleticism driven. The stats don't always capture the skills.

Kobe is probably more like fringe top 20 in peak play but passes some players for career due to having long and durable career, to end up somewhere in the mid teens.
Kobe's playoffs were really bad for a player of his caliber though...
 

Neutrinos

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Sep 23, 2016
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Thank you both for the insightful answers.

I know hardly anything about those advanced stats (PER, win shares, VORP, etc). Is it possible Bryant brought something to the table that isn't captured by those metrics? (Kind of like how Martin Brodeur supporters argue - correctly - that he's underrated just by looking at save percentage because it doesn't capture his puckhandling skills). As I said, I don't really know (or care) if Bryant is top ten all-time, but I find these "contrarian" arguments interesting.

Brodeur lead the league in GSAA 2x, and GPS 1x, which also lead the NHL, so at least there's something to support an argument that Brodeur was the league's best goalie at one point

But even during Kobe's best season in '06, he didn't lead in any category that measures a player's on-court value

There is zero statistical evidence for Kobe being a top 10 player of all-time

He's not even a top 10 player of the last 25 years
 

Neutrinos

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Sep 23, 2016
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Kobe's advanced stats aren't too bad. He is top 20 all time in Win Shares and top 4-5 in multiple seasons (03, 06, 07, 08). He is top 5 in VORP in 03 and 06-09.

Win Shares and VORP are both counting stats

Kobe is 12the all-time in VORP, and 19th all-time in Win Shares
But he's also 9th all-time in minutes played

His per-game advanced stats are much less flattering
63rd all-time in WS/48
31st all-time in BPM
29th all-time in PER
 
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Neutrinos

Registered User
Sep 23, 2016
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But the thing is, there are other "Langways" in Russell's era or near it. Let's take Nate Thurmond. He is quite possibly the greatest low post defensive center ever and later became famous for how well he defended Kareem in a playoff upset, and while not known for shotblocking like a Russell, he was still pretty respectable I think, he was already starting to be cooked at age 32 the first year the NBA tracked them but he put up 2.9 per game that year. In terms of offense he put up some 20 points a game seasons but on weak efficiency and shooting, and was a decent passer - Not great, but the offensive production looks a little better than players like Ben Wallace and Mutombo at least.

So Bill Russell and Nate Thurmond are both ELITE defensive centers, but one won 5 MVPs and Thurmond was not considered in that class, in terms of MVP finish it's roughly like comparing Jason Kidd (has an outlier 2nd place year) to Michael Jordan (5x winner). Why did they like Russell so much more? They gave Russell more regular season MVPs than WILT, the guy who's entire MO is blowing the statistical door down in the regular season. They gave him 5 while West and Oscar, both putting up flashier offensive numbers, had 1 combined. For whatever reason, they saw WAY more in Russell than just another great defensive center like Thurmond.

There were other guys fitting the Langway type defensive ace description as well. While he played more of the Draymond type position, Dave DeBusschere on the Knicks was considered was the catalyst after he got traded there that made them lights out and a 2 time champion in the 1970s. Yet nobody would ever confuse DeBusschere for an MVP caliber star, because it's understood the offense isn't there. Later on in the 70s and early 80s Bobby Jones would also go on an elite defensive run.

For whatever reason in his time period Russell was rated not just an MVP level player compared to these other defensive first guys, but a 5x MVP, GOAT level player. Perhaps it was weird at the time too that someone could dominate so much on defense. Before Russell the dominant players were - Mikan: Great on defense but also the best player in the league on offense for the first half of his prime, then settling into more like Hakeem/Duncan level on offense as below a few players but still good, Pettit - Elite level scoring PF like Dirk/Malone, Schayes - elite level shooting PF, Cousy - elite level PG playmaker/slasher, and then players like West, Baylor, Oscar and WIlt. Nobody had really relied on defense as much as Russell.

This is before considering from a team results perspective it's nearly impossible for the Celtics to win that much unless Russell was one of the greatest impact players of all time. They 8-peated! Nobody does that, in any sport. The problem of course, is that you gradually lose players to age and decline, and this is exactly what should have taken down the Celtics halfway through their run. Cousy - gone, Heinsohn - gone, Frank Ramsey - gone, etc. In a normal world this leads to transition period, but they kept winning in the post Cousy years, the most likely reason being cause they had a SUPERstar. To win that much you NEED to have the biggest dog in the yard or damn close to it. It can't just be Sam Jones, John Havlicek and a center roughly as good as Sam Jones and John Havlicek. Those teams might succeed in the regular season but if you you go against these squads with stars like Wilt, West and Oscar more often than not the individual brilliance is going to beat you somewhere along the way. Your best case scenario is 1-2 cute runs like late 80s or 00s Pistons or maybe 70s Knicks, but you can't win 11 titles in 13 years. In the post title years those teams eventually got run over by superstar teams like 91 Bulls beating the Pistons and 00s Pistons losing to players like Duncan, Wade, Lebron and big 3 Celtics. In the late 60s when Wilt left the Sixers they did pretty good with players like Billy Cunningham Hal Greer Chet Walker, they went 55-27. Kind of like the Bulls in Jordan first retirement year, or the Raptors the year Lowry left. But the 69 Sixers lose in 5 games in the first round, because ultimately, that's just what happens to most teams with 3 2nd tier stars instead of an MVP guy. This most likely is the destiny of the Celtics if Russell was only as good as players like Jones and Havlicek, maybe they sneak out one title, but most years end in frustration when the other team has Wilt or West.

I will admit there's a lot I don't understand about how Russell is that good but the supporting evidence all points one way.

Here's what the NBA's playoff bracket looked like in '60:

1960-NBA-Playoff-Bracket.jpg


The Celtics had to win a total of 2 playoff rounds to become the champs
 

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