Your thoughts on the Messier "We will win" prediction in the 1994 playoffs

[Big Phil]

Obviously you know the story. After a sluggish Game 5 vs. New Jersey Mark Messier tells the press that the Rangers will win Game 6. They go nuts and you basically had a situation where your season is on the line and you need to step up or else. As it stands, Messier gets the hat trick and an assist and the Rangers win, then win Game 7 and then the Cup in the final. A shout out to someone who rarely gets credit for Game 6 and that is Mike Richter. He made a lot of big saves in that game and it was only 2-0 because of him. Then Messier took over of course with probably the best game of his career under the circumstances.

So what do you think of it? There is something about New York athletes that makes this more special. Babe Ruth and Joe Namath are the other two legends that come to mind when it comes to "calling" something. Namath of course boldly predicted his Jets would win Super Bowl III vs. the heavily favoured Colts and they did. Ruth had his "called shot" in the 1932 World Series at Wrigley Field in Chicago. I've always felt that the truth lies in the middle with this one. He is definitely pointing in the outfield during this at bat and that's why I think it is in between the fact that he didn't do it and that he stood at home plate and pointed to the place where he was going to hit a home run, only to do it on the next pitch. All the research I have done on that over the years has made me think it is somewhere in the middle where perhaps the legend grew a little more.

But what is your thought on the Messier thing? Was it bold? Was he lucky? Does it make it that much sweeter because he was the guy who won them the game and that he did it by himself?

How does his legacy change if the Rangers lose that Cup and does his prediction get a lot of press after the loss? Do we remember him that way?

I think of it this way. He was bold doing what he did, and then getting a hat trick to make good on a promise just makes it that much more fascinating. Along the years there have been some who tried to emulate the same thing. I have no idea why Daniel Alfredsson guaranteed that the Senators would win the Cup early in the 2003-'04 season because that was foolish. I remember Eric Lindros saying to a reporter after Game 5 of the 1996 series vs. Florida that the Flyers would come back and win it. There are others of course, but is the Messier thing overrated because of other blown promises and sort of having the novelty wear out?

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[daver]

It's not like he called a press conference to make this announcement and, if it was in another city, his prediction could have been simply included in an article talking about Game 6.

I don't think it adds too much to the value of contribution in Game 6. Kudos to him for putting the thought of aside potentially looking like a fool to perform well that night.

 

[quoipourquoi]

I think there are a few things that distinguish it from other guarantees that players have made:

• It occurred in a series that is on the shortlist of greatest 7-game series
• The Rangers had a 54-year history of not coming through in big moments, and much was made of Messier being the player that would change that
• Hat tricks are easily identifiable single-game statistical milestones

I don’t think it changes much for how Messier is viewed as a player, but there’s little doubt that much of 1992-93 and 1993-94 was Messier taking the goodwill he already had as one of hockey’s best leaders and putting that specifically on the line.

Lindros, Alfredsson, Subban, Ovechkin (in 2015) hadn’t established a winner’s reputation yet. It’s like gambling; you win bigger when you have more chips on the table.

 

[The Panther]

I remember turning that game on with about 5 minutes left in the second period. Shortly after I started watching, Kovalev scored (from Messier), and it was 2-1 after two periods. I thought, "This is the kind of game Mark Messier will take over." Then, bang-bang-bang in the third period, and it's game seven. But I had seen him do that many times with Edmonton.

As Phil said, Mike Richter was also amazing, and Brian Leetch went +4 in this game, meaning (obviously) he was on the ice for every goal his club scored and none by the opposition. What a playoffs he had that spring! (And that beauty goal in game seven, too!) But Mess was NYR's messiah that night. That's why Glen Sather told Neil Smith in autumn 1991: "This is the guy who'll win the Stanley Cup for you."

I think Mess calculated it correctly. The Rangers had already "choked" in 1992, and then had a disaster 1993 season. When 1993-94 was such a strong season for them, I think Mess knew that this year was going to be their best-ever chance, and everyone may as well go all in. If his prediction had been wrong, what was really to lose? It would have been just another NYR disappointment in a long line of them.

 

[vikash1987]

But what is your thought on the Messier thing? Was it bold? Was he lucky? Does it make it that much sweeter because he was the guy who won them the game and that he did it by himself?

How does his legacy change if the Rangers lose that Cup and does his prediction get a lot of press after the loss? Do we remember him that way?

Looking back at how the events unfolded, I'd have to say that Messier's "guarantee"/delivery was incredibly bold, and probably one of the greatest displays of leadership by a captain in sports history. In NY, thanks to MSG-TV and other media outlets, what Messier did has definitely held mythical importance in the years since. Of course, his intention was not necessarily to make a splash in the media headlines, but rather to pump up his teammates, who so desperately needed a reason to believe.

Remember: the Rangers had not responded in Game 4---when Keenan benched some of the top players---or in Game 5. Also, there were serious injury concerns, including with Messier (his ribs, I think). I honestly think that, when the Devils went ahead 2-0 in Game 6, the odds of winning for the Rangers were one-in-10,000, when you factor in the momentum, the trap, Brodeur, the Curse, the stats favoring teams with 3-2 series leads, etc.

You knew you were watching history in the making when he scored each of those three goals. You could tell from ESPN's Gary Thorne, and others calling the game, just how remarkable this was as it happened.

There was a LOT of pressure on Messier to deliver as captain that night, especially with the prediction on everyone's minds, and so had the Devils won, it would've had a major impact on his legacy. The guy was already a proven champion with five Cups in Edmonton, but his reputation definitely would've taken a hit.

 

[GMR]

Brodeur had a great series, but Messier should be sending him a bottle of wine each week for game 6. I thought both of the goals he gave up to Messier were soft. The first goal was a weak backhand short side that should have been stopped. The second was a bad rebound. The last was of course an empty netter and not Brodeur's fault.

 

[scott clam]

Messier just said what any good captain would say when presented that question, in that situation. It's not like he had to put much thought into it. He didn't really think anything of it until he saw the cover of the NY Post the next morning.

But he sure had one hell of a game. As did Kovalev.

 

[scott clam]

Looking back at how the events unfolded, I'd have to say that Messier's "guarantee"/delivery was incredibly bold, and probably one of the greatest displays of leadership by a captain in sports history. In NY, thanks to MSG-TV and other media outlets, what Messier did has definitely held mythical importance in the years since. Of course, his intention was not necessarily to make a splash in the media headlines, but rather to pump up his teammates, who so desperately needed a reason to believe.

Remember: the Rangers had not responded in Game 4---when Keenan benched some of the top players---or in Game 5. Also, there were serious injury concerns, including with Messier (his ribs, I think). I honestly think that, when the Devils went ahead 2-0 in Game 6, the odds of winning for the Rangers were one-in-10,000, when you factor in the momentum, the trap, Brodeur, the Curse, the stats favoring teams with 3-2 series leads, etc.

You knew you were watching history in the making when he scored each of those three goals. You could tell from ESPN's Gary Thorne, and others calling the game, just how remarkable this was as it happened.

There was a LOT of pressure on Messier to deliver as captain that night, especially with the prediction on everyone's minds, and so had the Devils won, it would've had a major impact on his legacy. The guy was already a proven champion with five Cups in Edmonton, but his reputation definitely would've taken a hit.

It was pretty much "now or never" for the Rangers, after everything they invested after the deadline during their big season. Messier's reputation would've taken a hit, but on the other hand after 15 years there really wasn't much left that he had to prove.

But the Rangers would become known as the biggest chokers of the '90s if they lost that series. Much worse than the Wings were thought of during that time.

 

[VanIslander]

It's not like he called a press conference to make this announcement and, ....

It was a HUGE newspaper and TV news story.

I was in university and the ENTIRE dorm showed up in the common area because of his claim. About a hundred of us packed into a room usually having fifty at peak usual to watch big screen Messier vs. the Devils.

 

[Big Phil]

Brodeur had a great series, but Messier should be sending him a bottle of wine each week for game 6. I thought both of the goals he gave up to Messier were soft. The first goal was a weak backhand short side that should have been stopped. The second was a bad rebound. The last was of course an empty netter and not Brodeur's fault.

The tying goal was bad for sure. Brodeur knew it the second it went in, you could tell. He sort of smacks the puck away immediately. The game winner wasn't strong on Brodeur's part either, but the tying goal is the kicker here.

 

[daver]

It was a HUGE newspaper and TV news story.

I was in university and the ENTIRE dorm showed up in the common area because of his claim. About a hundred of us packed into a room usually having fifty at peak usual to watch big screen Messier vs. the Devils.

I am saying it was a run of the mill comment made during a scrum. Not denying how big the story got, that's what the media do.

 

[Oheao]

Brodeur had a great series, but Messier should be sending him a bottle of wine each week for game 6. I thought both of the goals he gave up to Messier were soft. The first goal was a weak backhand short side that should have been stopped. The second was a bad rebound. The last was of course an empty netter and not Brodeur's fault.

A lot of times in hindsight it seems weird just how close they were to the finals in 1994 but also that just one year later they won the Cup.

 

[Sinistril]

He's the type of player that ensures his team will win, by any means necessary.

 

[Nerowoy nora tolad]

It was a HUGE newspaper and TV news story.

I was in university and the ENTIRE dorm showed up in the common area because of his claim. About a hundred of us packed into a room usually having fifty at peak usual to watch big screen Messier vs. the Devils.

Clarifying, where was this, in NY, somewhere in Canada?

 

[PurpleMouse]

I feel like guaranteeing a win isn't really that big of a deal because it's very rare anyone remembers you said if you lose. (With the exception of Jim Schoenfield staking his job on winning a game 7.)

And as said above, this was as much Brodeur being bad as Messier good. Yikes.

 

[The Panther]

He's the type of player that ensures his team will win, by any means necessary.

It wasn't Messier who hit him. You can see Messier skating in front of Linden as that video clip begins, and skating away from him as another Ranger clubs Linden.

But your general point is correct. As Phil said recently, Messier would throw his Grandmother down the stairs to win.

 

[quoipourquoi]

It wasn't Messier who hit him. You can see Messier skating in front of Linden as that video clip begins, and skating away from him as another Ranger clubs Linden.

I think it’s in reference to the mystery hit that no one has footage of that Linden characterized as “Messier kind of rolled over the top of me”.

 

[67 others]

Obviously you know the story. After a sluggish Game 5 vs. New Jersey Mark Messier tells the press that the Rangers will win Game 6. They go nuts and you basically had a situation where your season is on the line and you need to step up or else. As it stands, Messier gets the hat trick and an assist and the Rangers win, then win Game 7 and then the Cup in the final. A shout out to someone who rarely gets credit for Game 6 and that is Mike Richter. He made a lot of big saves in that game and it was only 2-0 because of him. Then Messier took over of course with probably the best game of his career under the circumstances.

So what do you think of it? There is something about New York athletes that makes this more special. Babe Ruth and Joe Namath are the other two legends that come to mind when it comes to "calling" something. Namath of course boldly predicted his Jets would win Super Bowl III vs. the heavily favoured Colts and they did. Ruth had his "called shot" in the 1932 World Series at Wrigley Field in Chicago. I've always felt that the truth lies in the middle with this one. He is definitely pointing in the outfield during this at bat and that's why I think it is in between the fact that he didn't do it and that he stood at home plate and pointed to the place where he was going to hit a home run, only to do it on the next pitch. All the research I have done on that over the years has made me think it is somewhere in the middle where perhaps the legend grew a little more.

But what is your thought on the Messier thing? Was it bold? Was he lucky? Does it make it that much sweeter because he was the guy who won them the game and that he did it by himself?

How does his legacy change if the Rangers lose that Cup and does his prediction get a lot of press after the loss? Do we remember him that way?

I think of it this way. He was bold doing what he did, and then getting a hat trick to make good on a promise just makes it that much more fascinating. Along the years there have been some who tried to emulate the same thing. I have no idea why Daniel Alfredsson guaranteed that the Senators would win the Cup early in the 2003-'04 season because that was foolish. I remember Eric Lindros saying to a reporter after Game 5 of the 1996 series vs. Florida that the Flyers would come back and win it. There are others of course, but is the Messier thing overrated because of other blown promises and sort of having the novelty wear out?

It was nothing more than an Alpha male displaying utter confidence and then coming out and leading by example.

The press has made "guarantees" way more than they actually are. Its cringeworthy every time a reporter asks the question now of modern captains. "Do you GUARANTEE it Alfredsson?"

 

[Big Phil]

It was nothing more than an Alpha male displaying utter confidence and then coming out and leading by example.

The press has made "guarantees" way more than they actually are. Its cringeworthy every time a reporter asks the question now of modern captains. "Do you GUARANTEE it Alfredsson?"

I guess you can say "no" if you are a captain. You don't want to be foolish either and post some bulletin board stuff for the other team for the next game either. But when you guarantee it and then take the game over and are the reason behind it that says something. Messier had a lot riding on that game and I would call his performance one of the greatest ever when you factor in context. The other famous guarantees like Namath and then Ruth's called shot all were special because the person who predicted it had the most control over it and came through.

 

[Austerlitz]

The 'guarantee' has actually been bad for Messier's legacy. Because every time a lazy sportswriter needs to write about him, its, 'the guarantee and captained to two franchises to the Cup' and that's about it.

Which leads to: Messier was overrated, which is an all-too common opinion nowadays.

Messier had a lot more going for him than that sound bite. (Although, that third period hat-trick was an amazing moment which probably also isn't appreciated anymore due to media saturation)

 

[scott clam]

I want to know why it's so hard to find the actual video of "the guarantee"?

 

[Cyclones21]

A lot of times in hindsight it seems weird just how close they were to the finals in 1994 but also that just one year later they won the Cup.

Oheao - agreed 100%. As a NYR fan, I am glad it worked out the way it did but a 94 Devils vs Vancouver series would be interesting. I would think the Devils take it in 5 or 6 because even the Rangers, up 3 games to 1, allowed momentum to shift away. Both the Devils and Canucks series were physical and tough, the Devils proved they weren't a fluke by winning next year.

To the original point - Messier's declaration frustrated me as a Ranger fan because like everyone remembers, if it weren't for Mike Richter, the Rangers probably lose that game. Richter, Kovalev and Messier really stepped it up in the 2nd half.

Not to sound over dramatic but a loss probably has a frustrated fan base turn on Messier as this would be another "choke". What could the Rangers have done in 95 and beyond to sell the fanbase on a contender. Does Keenan still leave? Amonte is gone. Do Tikkanen, Anderson, MacTavish return (to a lesser extent Greg Gilbert?).

 

[The Panther]

I want to know why it's so hard to find the actual video of "the guarantee"?

There is no video of it. It wasn't filmed.

 

[scott clam]

There is no video of it. It wasn't filmed.

I was starting to suspect that. Still looking for original press clippings.

I found this one from the day afer:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...victory/dcb0278b-7031-4ba9-8aa6-16d815852d63/

"At the time I said it, it was more a statement toward my teammates to have the confidence we've displayed all year," Messier said after tonight's game. "I didn't think about the repercussions until later. But in my mind, it was more that we needed to get back the confidence we played with all year. It wasn't about being cocky or arrogant or anything like that."

But you came out and backed it up, Messier was told.
"No, we came out and backed it up," Messier answered.

 

[Staniowski]

It's no big deal.

The Rangers finished 1st overall in the NHL that season. They were favoured to win. So, saying you're going to win in that situation is not really very bold.

There's no downside to making these types of predictions or guarantees. If it doesn't happen, it's easily forgotten.