Your team is on the clock! PICK #9 (Fan Base Mock Entry Draft)

[Sharksrule04]

This is close to what I wanted to say but I've been pretty negative about stuff lately and even though I tend to be on the optimistic (though I try to be realistic) side when it comes to prospects, I didn't want to come off sounding all doom and gloom.

They currently have one guy who projects to be a top 4 in Mueller and I'll be thrilled if he becomes a good 2nd pairing d-man. Bergman has a shot at possibly being a #4 but he's got a ways to go. Everyone else like Tennyson, Brodzinski, Ryan, DeMelo, KA, Ausmus all project as bottom pairing d-men at best.

The Sharks D pipeline really isn't very good.

I think the scariest thing would be if DW believes that the D pipeline is actually good. I know it was just tire pumping but the Demelo comments from a while back are kinda scary.

I'm sure he's realistic about their capabilities. All those guys named will be depth and bottom pairing fillers. If one of them jumps up to a top 4 d-man it will be a huge win. DW is always going to make comments to the media to pump up certain prospects.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

I have no issues taking a forward or dmen since they need both. The draft is a total crapshoot so no need on getting hung up on players being potential this and that. Just keep loading up on players.

 

[sr228]

I think the scariest thing would be if DW believes that the D pipeline is actually good. I know it was just tire pumping but the Demelo comments from a while back are kinda scary.

I hope it was tire pumping but I'm not so sure it was. The two times he's said DeMelo is a right handed version of Vlasic were w/o cameras & very little media around.

He may be trying to placate the fans, same with his comments about Grosenick, which wouldn't surprise me at all but I worry that he might believe it.

 

[hockeyball]

I agree with a lot of what's said here regarding the organizational needs, and if Werenski was a sure thing I'd probably go with him, but Defensemen scare me, especially d-men coming from college. How many #1 d-men in the NHL are from the NCAA? Maybe it's just because Jillson and Carle but let me down hard back in the day but I also tend to lean towards forward in the first round especially top 10. Most of the top d-men in the league weren't top 10 picks.

I think Bergman has 2nd pairing potential, and it would take massive strides and a very unrealistic turn of events for him to become a top pairing d-man. Mueller to me looks like a 2nd pair d-man at best.

Up front though I don't have as much faith in our young guys as some people. I don't think Hertl will be a top line forward, Nieto 100% will not be a top line forward, and while Goldobin has the puck skills to be a top line forward, I think it's more likely he max's out as a solid/good 2nd liner. So I think our future lacks blue chip talent in both departments, and to me, there is a great gamble with D-men so I am hoping DW drafts a forward, Zacha, Rantanen or Barzal. Then in the 2nd round we can grab a d-man or trade up into the late first to grab one where the stakes aren't as high, but there is still a ton of talent available.

I'm fine with taking Zacha or Barzal if we trade for a later pick and get Kylington, that would still be an excellent draft. I would also be fine taking both Werenski AND Kylington just to better the odds we end up with a top pairing d-man. I'm also fine with trading Couture to Nashville for Jones+ (which they all seem thrilled with as well) and then picking a forward with 9th oa.

We need to come out of this with a top-pairing potential d-man, if we don't, especially considering d-men take longer to develop, we could be rebuilding a lot longer. Obviously what I'd prefer is to trade Thornton and Marleau for those picks and keep Couture, but that seems pretty unlikely. If we got really lucky though, Marleau lets us trade him for a later 1st and prospect, Wilson realizes keeping Burns around at this point is pointless and moves him for a mid round 1st and prospect, and we leave the draft with 3 firsts (Werenski, Merkeley, Kylington, or something like that). Seems pretty unlikely though.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

That is a complete fantasy.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I'm fine with taking Zacha or Barzal if we trade for a later pick and get Kylington, that would still be an excellent draft. I would also be fine taking both Werenski AND Kylington just to better the odds we end up with a top pairing d-man. I'm also fine with trading Couture to Nashville for Jones+ (which they all seem thrilled with as well) and then picking a forward with 9th oa.

We need to come out of this with a top-pairing potential d-man, if we don't, especially considering d-men take longer to develop, we could be rebuilding a lot longer. Obviously what I'd prefer is to trade Thornton and Marleau for those picks and keep Couture, but that seems pretty unlikely. If we got really lucky though, Marleau lets us trade him for a later 1st and prospect, Wilson realizes keeping Burns around at this point is pointless and moves him for a mid round 1st and prospect, and we leave the draft with 3 firsts (Werenski, Merkeley, Kylington, or something like that). Seems pretty unlikely though.

Really like the thoughts, but I can't see any of those "core" guys moving. I also have very little interest in Merkeley. Where he's projected there are other players I'd prefer. I'd rather even trade a pick where he'd be going for NHL talent or further developed prospects.

Most likely I think the best situation is us using the 9th and trading into the late first, and I just pray at that point it's for a dropping talent like Kylington. Zacha & Kylington would be such a great draft for our franchise. At that point you'd have to just hope we develop them correctly because both have top line/pairing potential and getting that from a single draft is huge for rebuild efforts.

 

[hockeyball]

Really like the thoughts, but I can't see any of those "core" guys moving. I also have very little interest in Merkeley. Where he's projected there are other players I'd prefer. I'd rather even trade a pick where he'd be going for NHL talent or further developed prospects.

Most likely I think the best situation is us using the 9th and trading into the late first, and I just pray at that point it's for a dropping talent like Kylington. Zacha & Kylington would be such a great draft for our franchise. At that point you'd have to just hope we develop them correctly because both have top line/pairing potential and getting that from a single draft is huge for rebuild efforts.

Yah me either, which likely means we are in for a long and painful rebuild. I'll call it now, if they don't trade at least one of Marleau, Thornton, Pavelski, Couture or Burns before Marleau/Thornton/Burns contracts run out, we're in for a brutal 5 year+ rebuild. Which also means, as much as this season sucked, the worst is yet to come.

Worst case scenario is we tick up next season and maybe make the playoffs barely, out in the first round, then with Marleau and Thornton declining fall right back in the hole, get little to no value for them, then lose Burns at the same time and have no one to replace him with. Thats when it gets REAL ugly.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

Although I like Merkeley very much, he is not worth a mid 1st.
(I'd take him in a heart beat if he slides to 20)

IMO Konecny/Connor/Svechnikov all have better upsides than Merkeley.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Yah me either, which likely means we are in for a long and painful rebuild. I'll call it now, if they don't trade at least one of Marleau, Thornton, Pavelski, Couture or Burns before Marleau/Thornton/Burns contracts run out, we're in for a brutal 5 year+ rebuild. Which also means, as much as this season sucked, the worst is yet to come.

Worst case scenario is we tick up next season and maybe make the playoffs barely, out in the first round, then with Marleau and Thornton declining fall right back in the hole, get little to no value for them, then lose Burns at the same time and have no one to replace him with. Thats when it gets REAL ugly.

Meh I don't think out entire future relies on this draft. A ton of potential int he off-season, but we'll see.

Although I like Merkeley very much, he is not worth a mid 1st.
(I'd take him in a heart beat if he slides to 20)

IMO Konecny/Connor/Svechnikov all have better upsides than Merkeley.

Yea, I wouldn't take him with anything higher than maybe mid 20's. We could easily turn that pick into a top 4 NHL ready d-man and I just don't have faith in Merkeley becoming similar value.

 

[sr228]

Yea, I wouldn't take him with anything higher than maybe mid 20's. We could easily turn that pick into a top 4 NHL ready d-man and I just don't have faith in Merkeley becoming similar value.

Do you really believe the Sharks are going to get a top 4 NHL ready d-man in the mid-first?

I think your expectations for this, or really any draft, might be a little bit high.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Do you really believe the Sharks are going to get a top 4 NHL ready d-man in the mid-first?

I think your expectations for this, or really any draft, might be a little bit high.

I meant trading it, not using it. You could definitely trade a mid 20's pick for a top 4 d-man already in the NHL or prospect who is NHL ready.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I agree with a lot of what's said here regarding the organizational needs, and if Werenski was a sure thing I'd probably go with him, but Defensemen scare me, especially d-men coming from college. How many #1 d-men in the NHL are from the NCAA? Maybe it's just because Jillson and Carle but let me down hard back in the day but I also tend to lean towards forward in the first round especially top 10. Most of the top d-men in the league weren't top 10 picks.

I think Bergman has 2nd pairing potential, and it would take massive strides and a very unrealistic turn of events for him to become a top pairing d-man. Mueller to me looks like a 2nd pair d-man at best.

Up front though I don't have as much faith in our young guys as some people. I don't think Hertl will be a top line forward, Nieto 100% will not be a top line forward, and while Goldobin has the puck skills to be a top line forward, I think it's more likely he max's out as a solid/good 2nd liner. So I think our future lacks blue chip talent in both departments, and to me, there is a great gamble with D-men so I am hoping DW drafts a forward, Zacha, Rantanen or Barzal. Then in the 2nd round we can grab a d-man or trade up into the late first to grab one where the stakes aren't as high, but there is still a ton of talent available.

I guess how many #1 d-men came from NCAA would first depend on your definition of a #1 d-man. McDonagh came from college. Shattenkirk came from college. Erik Johnson went to college for a year after his draft. Jacob Trouba went to Michigan and he likely will be a force in this league. I don't know why you would draw comparisons to Carle and Jillson. Carle was a 2nd rounder in 2003 and he panned out. He lived up to realistic expectations of him. Jillson was drafted in 1999 when things are nowhere like what it is now.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I guess how many #1 d-men came from NCAA would first depend on your definition of a #1 d-man. McDonagh came from college. Shattenkirk came from college. Erik Johnson went to college for a year after his draft. Jacob Trouba went to Michigan and he likely will be a force in this league. I don't know why you would draw comparisons to Carle and Jillson. Carle was a 2nd rounder in 2003 and he panned out. He lived up to realistic expectations of him. Jillson was drafted in 1999 when things are nowhere like what it is now.

I know the talent from college is getting better and better but I still prefer drafting from Europe and Juniors in the first round. More top talent comes from those places. College is better for the later picks who need time to develop for 3-4 years. Just my opinion, obviously not fact or anything like that. Carle panned out compared to when he was drafted but his draft+2 & +3 seasons skyrocketed his projections and IIRC he was ranked in the top 10-15 prospects in the world. He definitely appeared to have top pairing potential but he never really was a top 2 d-man. Jillson was just a bust.

Have the Sharks ever had a top round pick from college really develop to their potential, besides maybe Carle? Nieto is on that path I guess too. Wrenn, Petrecki, Morris, Spang, Jillson, and to some extent even Coyle. Coyle is solid but first round talent has hardly lived up to potential so far. I see way more success with us drafting college guys later on. Werenski does appear to be a really special player so I would be very happy to come away with him, but I still prefer Zacha/Barzal/Rantanen if available.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I know the talent from college is getting better and better but I still prefer drafting from Europe and Juniors in the first round. More top talent comes from those places. College is better for the later picks who need time to develop for 3-4 years. Just my opinion, obviously not fact or anything like that. Carle panned out compared to when he was drafted but his draft+2 & +3 seasons skyrocketed his projections and IIRC he was ranked in the top 10-15 prospects in the world. He definitely appeared to have top pairing potential but he never really was a top 2 d-man. Jillson was just a bust.

Have the Sharks ever had a top round pick from college really develop to their potential, besides maybe Carle? Nieto is on that path I guess too. Wrenn, Petrecki, Morris, Spang, Jillson, and to some extent even Coyle. Coyle is solid but first round talent has hardly lived up to potential so far. I see way more success with us drafting college guys later on. Werenski does appear to be a really special player so I would be very happy to come away with him, but I still prefer Zacha/Barzal/Rantanen if available.

At Carle's peak, he was a top pairing d-man. He never really appeared to have top pairing potential but he made it there for a short while. It's unfair to label Coyle as like any other first round talent that has hardly lived up to anything. He was barely inside the first round and those picks often bust. You're lucky if those players make an NHL career. It's unrealistic to have real expectations on picks unless they're in the top half of the first round when it comes to an NHL career. And just because the Sharks have issues early on with picks of all types from everywhere like all teams do, doesn't mean it's a good idea to pass up on someone because of the organization's failings in a certain area. If he's BPA, you take him.

 

[Sharksrule04]

At Carle's peak, he was a top pairing d-man. He never really appeared to have top pairing potential but he made it there for a short while. It's unfair to label Coyle as like any other first round talent that has hardly lived up to anything. He was barely inside the first round and those picks often bust. You're lucky if those players make an NHL career. It's unrealistic to have real expectations on picks unless they're in the top half of the first round when it comes to an NHL career. And just because the Sharks have issues early on with picks of all types from everywhere like all teams do, doesn't mean it's a good idea to pass up on someone because of the organization's failings in a certain area. If he's BPA, you take him.

100% agree, if they think Werenski is BPA, then I support taking him. I'm not a pro scout so I generally don't complain too much about picks unless they are completely a reach. Even Mueller, I wanted Mantha but I had hope that DW knew what he was doing.

As for expectations, I fully expect all first rounders to make the NHL, and looking at past drafts that is legitimate. I even expect most 2nd rounders to make the NHL. Once you get to the 3rd round is where that number trails off. I expect a top 15 pick to play in the NHL within 2-3 years and have an impact. A 15-30 pick should play in the NHL within 3-4 years. 2nd round picks should make the NHL, and hopefully contribute time frame varies a ton based on College, Europe or Juniors. Anything after the 2nd round I generally am happy if they even make the NHL.

 

[sr228]

100% agree, if they think Werenski is BPA, then I support taking him. I'm not a pro scout so I generally don't complain too much about picks unless they are completely a reach. Even Mueller, I wanted Mantha but I had hope that DW knew what he was doing.

As for expectations, I fully expect all first rounders to make the NHL, and looking at past drafts that is legitimate. I even expect most 2nd rounders to make the NHL. Once you get to the 3rd round is where that number trails off. I expect a top 15 pick to play in the NHL within 2-3 years and have an impact. A 15-30 pick should play in the NHL within 3-4 years. 2nd round picks should make the NHL, and hopefully contribute time frame varies a ton based on College, Europe or Juniors. Anything after the 2nd round I generally am happy if they even make the NHL.

It really isn't. I think Cullen set a low threshold here (and he says as much) but you should read this:
http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673

 

[Led Zappa]

As for expectations, I fully expect all first rounders to make the NHL, and looking at past drafts that is legitimate. I even expect most 2nd rounders to make the NHL. Once you get to the 3rd round is where that number trails off. I expect a top 15 pick to play in the NHL within 2-3 years and have an impact. A 15-30 pick should play in the NHL within 3-4 years. 2nd round picks should make the NHL, and hopefully contribute time frame varies a ton based on College, Europe or Juniors. Anything after the 2nd round I generally am happy if they even make the NHL.

This isn't close to reality. Take a look at the attachment I uploaded which goes back to the 2000 1rst round draft picks. If you can't open excel let me know and I'll look into another way to share the results.

 

[Sharksrule04]

It really isn't. I think Cullen set a low threshold here (and he says as much) but you should read this:
http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673

This isn't close to reality. Take a look at the attachment I uploaded which goes back to the 2000 1rst round draft picks. If you can't open excel let me know and I'll look into another way to share the results.

Obviously not every single one of the picks will make the NHL and have an impact but when I say "I expect them to make the NHL" that is my evaluation of good/bad drafting. If they don't make the NHL it's a bad pick, plain and simple. Just quickly looking through the past 6-7 drafts (4 years or further back) majority of first rounders have played in the NHL and played 100+ games. Even appears more than half of 2nd round picks make the NHL. Overall the odds of top 80 picks making the NHL appear high.

 

[Sharksrule04]

It really isn't. I think Cullen set a low threshold here (and he says as much) but you should read this:
http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673

Really like this article except when I look at the numbers for #2 overall and see both the "worst" picks were ours.

That being said, looking at the stats, I think the expectation is that in the first round you're getting an NHL player. Both forwards and defenseman have a 70% rate of 100+ games and that is after things like injuries, deaths, bad management of prospects, basically anything that can impact a prospects development. I think that is pretty good and those numbers are much higher where we'll be picking around #9.

 

[Squeeven]

I won't speak in definites since you all hate that, but it's laughable to suggest that Bergman has top-pair upside. Hilarious.

I'm not saying he's for sure going to be a top pair d-man but please explain to me why its hilarious to suggest that he might be? He did really well with the London Knights and in the World Juniors with Sweden, one of the top countries in the world and now he's earned his call up to Worcester for the playoffs. So whats really laughable is the fact that you think suggesting he MIGHT have top-pair upside is hilarious.

 

[sr228]

Really like this article except when I look at the numbers for #2 overall and see both the "worst" picks were ours.

That being said, looking at the stats, I think the expectation is that in the first round you're getting an NHL player. Both forwards and defenseman have a 70% rate of 100+ games and that is after things like injuries, deaths, bad management of prospects, basically anything that can impact a prospects development. I think that is pretty good and those numbers are much higher where we'll be picking around #9.

I don't think anyone is questioning that the Sharks have a good chance to get a NHLer at 9 but a 70% hit rate (again, 100 games is really not a high enough threshold in my opinion) in the first round should tell you not to expect every 1st rounder to be a NHLer, it's just not the reality.

That article should also show you what kind of player, on average, is drafted at 9 and that expecting an impact (top line/top pair) player there is also unrealistic.

 

[Juxtaposer]

What if the Sharks pick Zacha, and Kings pick Werenski ?

Werenski-Doughty sounds just as bad for the Sharks.

The thing is, if Werenski makes it past the Sharks, he won't make it past the Avs or Stars. If Zacha does, there's a chance he would.

I agree with a lot of what's said here regarding the organizational needs, and if Werenski was a sure thing I'd probably go with him, but Defensemen scare me, especially d-men coming from college. How many #1 d-men in the NHL are from the NCAA? Maybe it's just because Jillson and Carle but let me down hard back in the day but I also tend to lean towards forward in the first round especially top 10. Most of the top d-men in the league weren't top 10 picks.

Ryan McDonagh comes to mind. Jacob Trouba too. Ryan Suter. Justin Faulk. Plenty of #1 guys (or in Trouba's case potential #1 guys) coming from the NCAA. Two of them were drafted in the Werenski range too. And none of them had pre-draft seasons like Werenski did.

The league Werenski plays in is a very dumb reason to not want Werenski.

I'm not saying he's for sure going to be a top pair d-man but please explain to me why its hilarious to suggest that he might be? He did really well with the London Knights and in the World Juniors with Sweden, one of the top countries in the world and now he's earned his call up to Worcester for the playoffs. So whats really laughable is the fact that you think suggesting he MIGHT have top-pair upside is hilarious.

Except he was horrendous with London in the playoffs. He was thoroughly mediocre at the WJC. And saying he's earned a call-up to the AHL for the playoffs is saying Frazer McLaren earned his call-up to the NHL for the playoffs when he's in reality just a black ace.

I'm not saying you specifically, but a lot of this board seems to have an overinflated opinion of Bergman from that prospects game last summer.

I also won't speak in definites here, but I highly highly highly doubt that Mueller becomes a top-pairing defenseman in any capacity. His offensive abilities are worse than Vlasic's and his defensive abilities are not even close to Vlasic. And most people think Vlasic is just a #2.

Suggesting Mueller could be a second pairing Vlasic-lite type of player is very reasonable, but I really don't see anything that suggests top pairing material.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Ryan McDonagh comes to mind. Jacob Trouba too. Ryan Suter. Justin Faulk. Plenty of #1 guys (or in Trouba's case potential #1 guys) coming from the NCAA. Two of them were drafted in the Werenski range too. And none of them had pre-draft seasons like Werenski did.

The league Werenski plays in is a very dumb reason to not want Werenski.

Never said I didn't want him. In fact I'll be very happy if we get him. I am just skeptical of college players that high in the draft. He had an amazing season as the youngest player in college so consider my on board with him being a Shark, I'm just more on board with a forward like Zacha/Rantanen/Barzal. I will clap if we get Werenski at 9. Pretty sure I'll be happy on June 26th unless they go off the board and choose someone projected to go after the 14 spot or make a stupid trade.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Never said I didn't want him. In fact I'll be very happy if we get him. I am just skeptical of college players that high in the draft. He had an amazing season as the youngest player in college so consider my on board with him being a Shark, I'm just more on board with a forward like Zacha/Rantanen/Barzal. I will clap if we get Werenski at 9. Pretty sure I'll be happy on June 26th unless they go off the board and choose someone projected to go after the 14 spot or make a stupid trade.

Firstly, I highly doubt Barzal is on the board at 9.

And secondly, unless you legitimately think Zacha/Rantanen/Barzal are better than Werenski, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Yes, it's true that we don't have high-end young forwards, but we at least have young forwards who project as top-6 or better. Hertl, Tierney, Nieto, O'Regan, Goldobin, and Chartier are nothing to sniff at. Probably none of them end up as true 1st liners, but that's a whole lot of top-4 talent. The Sharks have Mueller and maybe Bergman who could be top-4.

I'm not suggesting that we should draft for need; quite the opposite.

 

[SactoShark]

So in this hypothetical draft, the next team will probably select Zacha judging by the interest so far.

That means Crouse would go outside the top 10. I don't think i've seen a single ranking with Crouse outside the top 10.