Prospect Info: Wpg Jets - the best drafting team in the NHL

[Mortimer Snerd]

Gm0ney: thanks for that - very interesting. WPG has done well, but Tampa has really crushed it, if you're looking at it from a standpoint of the return based on points. FLA and WPG are pretty even, EDM should be where they are (based on their average pick position).

The other team that's done extremely well based on their draft position is CGY - that's pretty impressive.

I don't think the Jets have drafted the best of all teams, but I do think they've done extremely well in the 1st round. 2nd round is meh, though there are still some returns that aren't in yet. They're top 5, if nothing else.

Great charts from both you and Gm0ney!

The other one that has done extremely well considering draft position is Anaheim.

Jets have done very well in the first round. Calling their 2nd rd 'meh' is pretty generous. Petan is the only 2nd rd return they have had and he can't break into the lineup.

There is some hope from later rounds, though so far it is only Lowry and Copp. Helle is struggling at this point. But just 1 or 2 more regulars (not stars, just regulars) from all those still percolating would make the later round payoff rate pretty good too.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Best teams are ones that get mid/late round steels. I think parayko type players.

 

[Whileee]

Best teams are ones that get mid/late round steels. I think parayko type players.

If they are so good, why do they wait until later rounds to pick the best players? Blues drafted 3 busts before Parayko... Schmaltz, Kurker and MacEachern. They thought all three were better prospects than Parayko. Does that make them great scouts?

I think mid and late round steals are more luck than skill. I prefer scouts that nail the top picks and occasionally get lucky with later picks.

 

[surixon]

If they are so good, why do they wait until later rounds to pick the best players? Blues drafted 3 busts before Parayko... Schmaltz, Kurker and MacEachern. They thought all three were better prospects than Parayko. Does that make them great scouts?

I think mid and late round steals are more luck than skill. I prefer scouts that nail the top picks and occasionally get lucky with later picks.

Agreed. Also if Helle turns into an above league average starter there is your late round steal for the Jets. Niku, Spacek represent some other potential players.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Best teams are ones that get mid/late round steels. I think parayko type players.

Ideally you want mid/late round steals but you can't blow premium picks. That offsets the benefits you get from players that produce after your high picks. It's imperative that Winnipeg drafts well with their top picks as let's be frank, it is harder to recoup losses in that regard than it is for most other teams. To date they've been pretty much perfect.

 

[Daximus]

I think what makes a good drafting team is a team that can make the playoffs consistently but still manages to draft good players. A team like Anaheim definitely out drafts us IMO when you factor in they are making playoffs and still getting good value picks. Picking up Jones and Steel last year was a solid draft for them.

Since 2011 they've had 7 - 1st round picks with an average pick of 22 and pulled out Rakell, Lindholm, Theodore, Ritchie, Larsson, Jones and Steel. That's crazy good value for drafting in those spots. And they've only drafted 3 goalies since 2011; Gibson, Anderson and Metcalf. So they are basically 2/3 on starting goalies so far since the Jets first draft in 2011 with one of those goalies still developing.

 

[Whileee]

I think what makes a good drafting team is a team that can make the playoffs consistently but still manages to draft good players. A team like Anaheim definitely out drafts us IMO when you factor in they are making playoffs and still getting good value picks. Picking up Jones and Steel last year was a solid draft for them.

Since 2011 they've had 7 - 1st round picks with an average pick of 22 and pulled out Rakell, Lindholm, Theodore, Ritchie, Larsson, Jones and Steel. That's crazy good value for drafting in those spots. And they've only drafted 3 goalies since 2011; Gibson, Anderson and Metcalf. So they are basically 2/3 on starting goalies so far since the Jets first draft in 2011 with one of those goalies still developing.

Agree. Anaheim is an excellent drafting team. Did Garret mention that they don't use an advanced stats service or experts, or did I misremember?

 

[garret9]

Agree. Anaheim is an excellent drafting team. Did Garret mention that they don't use an advanced stats service or experts, or did I misremember?

They are the only team that has not openly mentioned the usage of having personnel dedicated to statistical analysis. Which does not mean they do not have any.

Like all organisations, there are going to be all types of individuals within that will like and listen to all sorts of evidence.

 

[Whileee]

They are the only team that has not openly mentioned the usage of having personnel dedicated to statistical analysis. Which does not mean they do not have any.

Like all organisations, there are going to be all types of individuals within that will like and listen to all sorts of evidence.

I'm sure you're right. They might very well use metrics effectively to make decisions about who to draft. On the other hand, they let Perreault go without a whimper, so maybe they have inefficiency in their systems.

 

[garret9]

I'm sure you're right. They might very well use metrics effectively to make decisions about who to draft. On the other hand, they let Perreault go without a whimper, so maybe they have inefficiency in their systems.

They also traded for him
There's a lot of things with NHL teams that is all over the place, likely due to the very committee nature of organizations.

I've talked to smart people from all sorts of organizations that have made moves I would outright call stupid.

 

[ps241]

I think what makes a good drafting team is a team that can make the playoffs consistently but still manages to draft good players. A team like Anaheim definitely out drafts us IMO when you factor in they are making playoffs and still getting good value picks. Picking up Jones and Steel last year was a solid draft for them.

Since 2011 they've had 7 - 1st round picks with an average pick of 22 and pulled out Rakell, Lindholm, Theodore, Ritchie, Larsson, Jones and Steel. That's crazy good value for drafting in those spots. And they've only drafted 3 goalies since 2011; Gibson, Anderson and Metcalf. So they are basically 2/3 on starting goalies so far since the Jets first draft in 2011 with one of those goalies still developing.

Don't forget Montour and Josh Manson in that same time frame. The Ducks have the old red wings touch in the sense they know how to generate value with later picks by knowing how to draft D men and goalies very well. The amount they hit on is inane.

 

[Whileee]

They also traded for him
There's a lot of things with NHL teams that is all over the place, likely due to the very committee nature of organizations.

I've talked to smart people from all sorts of organizations that have made moves I would outright call stupid.

I'm sure you've nailed it. Mostly, you don't want to make really big mistakes with top picks, big trades or big long-term contracts.

 

[Whileee]

Don't forget Montour and Josh Manson in that same time frame. The Ducks have the old red wings touch in the sense they know how to generate value with later picks by knowing how to draft D men and goalies very well. The amount they hit on is inane.

Manson looks very much like a typical Jets D pick. Big, good skater, very low scoring. He just progressed better than you would have expected. Maybe Nogier is our Manson.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

The Jets actually probably follow what the Ducks do when it comes to evaluating players. They put a lot of stock into a players character and attitude.

Scott Neidermeyer is also there head of Player Development on the ice. I can imagine he might be a bit of a D guru there and someone that emphasis skating in all there players

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Yes I forgot to add how many Russians have the ducks draft since 2009? They also almost excusively avoided europe except for Sweden.