Speculation: WPG/CAR-Canes interested in Laine

[nickdawg95]

Laine been in the league for 4 years and has 3 30 goal season and 1 40 goal season. You got to give to get.

It Definitely starts with Necas

 

[untouchable21]

Yeah it's a lot of futures but you just have to wonder which teams have both the cap and pieces. Carolina has a tonne of futures they can move towards us between 13th overall, Geekie (C), Necas (RW/C), Bean (LD), Mattheos (C/RW), Keane (RD), Bokk (LW/RW), Suzuki (C/LW), Drury (C), Jamieson (C/LW), Honka (RD). If we can land some of those + Pesce then it might not be a horrible deal to look into, provided Laine is unwilling to sign long term here.

If it’s a deal with Carolina, Drury must be part of the package for me. I’ve been a fan of his since his draft year.

 

[Whileee]

Laine is s bit of a gamble.

Expensive to obtain, very expensive to retain and depending on his work-ethic he could be Ovie Jr (obviously not as good) or he could turn into a "what if?" player.

I'd trade Pesce + 1 st for him. I think Pesce is good albeit slightly overrated. And i think Laine's potential ceiling is ridiculously high. Will that package be enough? Who knows...

Pesce and 1st is not enough for Laine.

 

[BatVader]

How about this...

To WPG
Skjei + Necas + 2020 13OA + prospect of Jets choice

To CAR
Laine

It’s a lot to give up and not sure either side does it to be honest but I think if you’re going for a quantity type offer that’s got to be something Winnipeg considers as it it’s essentially 4 x 1st round picks in various forms and a lot of controllable years.

- Necas fills Laine’s spot in the top 6. He’s a downgrade but has a lot of skill and talent and could be a 60+ point player in a year or two. Also expansion draft exempt

- Skjei helps a depleted blue line and slots in as the 2nd pair LHD behind Morrisey. Signed to a reasonable deal ($5.25) for the next 4 years. Carolina also needs to send some amount of salary back to make this work

- 2020 13OA is pretty self explanatory. Pretty high pick in a strong draft to go along with Winnipeg’s 10OA

- Pick any prospect.
Bean/Suzuki/Rees/Bokk/Honka/Kochetov
C,W,D,G we’ve got a pretty good prospect for every position

- Carolina gets Laine and adds him to Aho, TT, Svech for one of the leagues best top 4 forwards. Moving Skjei in the deal opens up some cap space to re-sign Laine to a contract that both sides can live with.

Flame away...

so we trade our star RW for players that fill zero of our needs.... no
Zero need for Skjei. Jets have Samberg and Heinola moving up to fill that 2nd pairing LHD slot.
Necas could be nice, but getting a replacement RW isn’t the goal of trading Laine.

One of Hamilton or Pesce is a must or no deal.

 

[ICanMotteBelieveIt]

Pesce and 1st is not enough for Laine.

I meant plus small plusses as well

 

[Tripod]

Do you really believe that that’s how negotiations work? The player walks in and says what they want, then management either agrees, they trade him, or he holds out?

Dubas answers "yes"

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

so we trade our star RW for players that fill zero of our needs.... no
Zero need for Skjei. Jets have Samberg and Heinola moving up to fill that 2nd pairing LHD slot.
Necas could be nice, but getting a replacement RW isn’t the goal of trading Laine.

One of Hamilton or Pesce is a must or no deal.

Thats totally fair and I would have to agree with you from a general value perspective. I was just providing a different option that was more quantity based but still involved pieces that were of value. I realize it didn’t fill a specific hole on the Jets roster but just was looking at getting the most amount valuable pieces back. Didn’t know that the Jets had so much young depth and prospects for LHD though and that obviously changes things quite a bit. My understanding was that WPg was lacking D on both sides

 

[LakeLivin]

I see Laine as too risky for the Canes to give up what would be needed to get him. Not necessarily from a playing perspective (it would be awesome to have Laine playing on Aho's wing), but from a contract perspective. The Canes "Committee" has shown that they're not going to pay full retail+ for a player. The Canes model is more Tampa Bay than Toronto. If Laine is looking to maximize the $ amount of his next deal (and there's no reason to believe he wouldn't) there's a good chance the Canes would end up trading him to a team that is willing to pay that price.

One might make the argument that Laine is worth making an exception for, but that's a snowball I wouldn't want to start rolling down the Carolina hill (see Toronto).

I bet someone is going to ask "what about Dougie Hamilton?" After being a square peg in two round hole teams Dougie seems to have found the perfect fit with Carolina. I'm thinking he values that quite a bit and that the two sides will be able to find a reasonable, acceptable, middle ground for his next contract.

 

[Dache]

I see Laine as too risky for the Canes to give up what would be needed to get him. Not necessarily from a playing perspective (it would be awesome to have Laine playing on Aho's wing), but from a contract perspective. The Canes "Committee" has shown that they're not going to pay full retail+ for a player. The Canes model is more Tampa Bay than Toronto. If Laine is looking to maximize the $ amount of his next deal (and there's no reason to believe he wouldn't) there's a good chance the Canes would end up trading him to a team that is willing to pay that price.

One might make the argument that Laine is worth making an exception for, but that's a snowball I wouldn't want to start rolling down the Carolina hill (see Toronto).

I bet someone is going to ask "what about Dougie Hamilton?" After being a square peg in two round hole teams Dougie seems to have found the perfect fit with Carolina. I'm thinking he values that quite a bit and that the two sides will be able to find a reasonable, acceptable, middle ground for his next contract.

What gives you the impression that Winnipeg’s contracts are more “Toronto” than “Tampa”? And what are these indications that Laine is looking to break the bank? All I’ve seen is speculation on here which I’m sure we’re all aware is nonsense

 

[LakeLivin]

Yeah, but that's what it would cost to get a young, elite goalscorer. You want a Ferrari, ya gotta pay the price of a Ferrari, not the price of a Volvo.
. . .

If you live a Volvo lifestyle with a Volvo budget you're foolish to try to purchase a Ferrari, lol. That's the reason I don't think Carolina trading for Laine makes sense.

Laine been in the league for 4 years and has 3 30 goal season and 1 40 goal season. You got to give to get.

It Definitely starts with Necas

I don't think trading for Laine makes sense for a team like the Canes. But if they did, I agree completely; whatever went back from the Canes would have to hurt. The problem on this board is that many Peg fans don't see a deal starting with Necas, they seem to see him as just an ancillary piece. I'm projecting Necas as the eventual Canes long term 2C behind Aho (Brind'Amour seems to like to develop his young Cs and D very slowly compared to many teams; he even mentioned the possibility of moving Aho back to wing at the beginning of this season). A legitmate 1-2 punch down the middle like that is hard to come by and I value Necas highly when it comes to the Canes future. I'm certainly not saying highly as in 1-1 for Laine, but losing Necas would create a hole that the Canes would need to fill down the road. I've gotta believe the Canes would be considering that hole when calculating Necas' value in a trade.

 

[LakeLivin]

What gives you the impression that Winnipeg’s contracts are more “Toronto” than “Tampa”? And what are these indications that Laine is looking to break the bank? All I’ve seen is speculation on here which I’m sure we’re all aware is nonsense

I wasn't referring to Winnipeg at all; that reference applied solely to Carolina.

I could turn your question around: what are the indications that Laine won't be looking to break the bank? I specifically used the term "risk" because you're right, we don't know for sure. I'm just thinking that if Laine goes to a new team there'll be less of a "loyalty" factor that might help take the edge off his new contract demands. Hey, I could be wrong, and if the Canes had a good faith indication from Laine that he wanted to be in Carolina, and wasn't a risk to go all Nylander or Marner on them, I'd reconsider looking at a trade. But absent that, too much of a risk to give up the assets that would be needed to land a player of Laine's caliber, imo.

 

[Walt22]

I wasn't referring to Winnipeg at all; that reference applied solely to Carolina.

I could turn your question around: what are the indications that Laine won't be looking to break the bank? I specifically used the term "risk" because you're right, we don't know for sure. I'm just thinking that if Laine goes to a new team there'll be less of a "loyalty" factor that might help take the edge off his new contract demands. Hey, I could be wrong, and if the Canes had a good faith indication from Laine that he wanted to be in Carolina, and wasn't a risk to go all Nylander or Marner on them, I'd reconsider looking at a trade. But absent that, too much of a risk to give up the assets that would be needed to land a player of Laine's caliber, imo.

I guess if we are turning questions around, what are the indicators that Aho doesnt want to be traded out of Carolina? He did already sign that offer sheet. Assumptions are a bitch when you start toughing them out without any information to back it up.

 

[Dache]

I wasn't referring to Winnipeg at all; that reference applied solely to Carolina.

I could turn your question around: what are the indications that Laine won't be looking to break the bank? I specifically used the term "risk" because you're right, we don't know for sure. I'm just thinking that if Laine goes to a new team there'll be less of a "loyalty" factor that might help take the edge off his new contract demands. Hey, I could be wrong, and if the Canes had a good faith indication from Laine that he wanted to be in Carolina, and wasn't a risk to go all Nylander or Marner on them, I'd reconsider looking at a trade. But absent that, too much of a risk to give up the assets that would be needed to land a player of Laine's caliber, imo.

You could turn it around and ask that, but I wasn’t the one that made the statement. On the flip side of that I could ask what makes Carolina’s structure so good? They well overpaid for mediocre goalies not long ago and even though the Aho deal is amazing it was actually signed by Montreal.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

To match Rantanen's (mentioned as a comparable on the prior page) 6 year post-ELC earnings, Laine will need to get $10.5 mil on a 4 year deal.

Maybe a flat cap environment will force it, but it's hard to imagine that the thought process was let's sign a bridge contract and then do a long-term deal under 10, to end up with less than his comparables.

 

[Dache]

To match Rantanen's (mentioned as a comparable on the prior page) 6 year post-ELC earnings, Laine will need to get $10.5 mil on a 4 year deal.

Maybe a flat cap environment will force it, but it's hard to imagine that the thought process was let's sign a bridge contract and then do a long-term deal under 10, to end up with less than his comparables.

I just read the last 2 pages and the only mention of Rantanen was me saying I could see that type of contract. Where are you getting this 6 year elc earning idea from. I’ve never heard of such a concept and am pretty sure that’s not how it works.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

I just read the last 2 pages and the only mention of Rantanen was me saying I could see that type of contract. Where are you getting this 6 year elc earning idea from. I’ve never heard of such a concept and am pretty sure that’s not how it works.

Rantanen's post-elc contract is 6 years $55m, Laine already signed a 2 year $13.5m bridge post-elc. Hard to use Rantanen's 6 years as a comparable when Laine already took a cut on his bridge

 

[Dache]

Rantanen's post-elc contract is 6 years $55m, Laine already signed a 2 year $13.5m bridge post-elc. Hard to use Rantanen's 6 years as a comparable when Laine already took a cut on his bridge

Where has there been anything that said he “took a cut”? He got very appropriate number for a bridge deal. And no it’s not hard to use Rantanens contract. You look at it, adjust for the cap and try to settle around there. That means with the bridge Laine has more guaranteed money than Rantanen. There’s two silly ways to look at it then.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I just read the last 2 pages and the only mention of Rantanen was me saying I could see that type of contract. Where are you getting this 6 year elc earning idea from. I’ve never heard of such a concept and am pretty sure that’s not how it works.

The whole point of a bridge from a player perspective is to get more money over the term of the contract than they would otherwise would have received on a long-term deal due to better performance and/or a higher cap. Breaking even makes it a waste. Getting less, which is why you have to look at the total compensation, is a fail.

The Jets are getting the benefit of the short-term discount. They, or a team they pass that responsibility on to, will have to pay for that over the long-term, unless the unique market conditions don't require it.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

And no it’s not hard to use Rantanens contract. You look at it, adjust for the cap and try to settle around there. That means with the bridge Laine has more guaranteed money than Rantanen.

Good luck convincing any player or agent that's how it works. Rantanen's contract eats 2 UFA years, you give him Rantanen's 6 years it's eating 4 of Laine's.

 

[Dache]

The whole point of a bridge from a player perspective is to get more money over the term of the contract than they would otherwise would have received on a long-term deal due to better performance and/or a higher cap. Breaking even makes it a waste. Getting less, which is why you have to look at the total compensation, is a fail.

The Jets are getting the benefit of the short-term discount. They, or a team they pass that responsibility on to, will have to pay for that over the long-term, unless the unique market conditions don't require it.

You are exactly right, the point of the bridge is for the player to make more money than they would have. Laine had just put up 30 goals and 20 assists for 50 points in 82 games, Rantanen just came off a 31 goal 56 assists in 74 game season after being over a ppg the year before. Laine wouldn’t have gotten Rantanen money at that point in time.

 

[Dache]

Good luck convincing any player or agent that's how it works. Rantanen's contract eats 2 UFA years, you give him Rantanen's 6 years it's eating 4 of Laine's.

I don’t think that’s my job to convince anyone how anything works.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

I don’t think that’s my job to convince anyone how anything works.

I can tell

 

[Dache]

I can tell

Sick burn.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

Sick burn.

Maybe don't be intentionally obtuse and ignore the point, obviously you're not doing any convincing this is a trade proposals forum. When I say good luck trying to convince a player or agent of that I'm pointing out that your head canon of how you would "look at it, adjust for the cap and try to settle around there" doesn't actually apply in the real world

 

[Dache]

Maybe don't be intentionally obtuse and ignore the point, obviously you're not doing any convincing this is a trade proposals forum. When I say good luck trying to convince a player or agent of that I'm pointing out that your head canon of how you would "look at it, adjust for the cap and try to settle around there" doesn't actually apply in the real world

I’m not sure why you’re getting so upset here. If you reply to me with a waste of a post I’ll do the same. I’ve said in here why I feel like the Rantanen contract is in line, I’m just not typing the same thing over and over to both of you. Feel free to read a few other posts. Laine was in no position to ask for the Rantanen deal after his 50 point season, had a real good season this past year and now will get a good raise. Could it be 10 mil? Maybe, but I doubt it and all this talk about it being more or less guaranteed is based on absolutely nothing. What about how Chevy has dealt with his other young contracts gives you the impression he’s about the get bent over with a flat cap for the next 3 years?