News Article: WPG and TOR goaltending

[powder88]

Nothing new for Jets fans, but interesting thought experiment of switching the two teams' goalies:

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/what-we-learned--leafs--jets-and-how-goaltenders-make-or-break-a-season-040342905.html

Click to read more...

 

[broinwhyteridge]

I approve of this article. Not that my approval means anything. Just saying....

 

[Winnipeg Jets]

Pavelec is bad, and he should feel bad.

 

[Romang67]

Hey! I don't think this guy approves of #MVPavelec...

 

[garret9]

He is though a HUGE fan of Hellebuyck and watched Helle a lot due to writing for CHN.

 

[cbcwpg]

The only issue I have with the Jets getting Riemer would be... how will he handle playing in front of friends and family? It's hard enough playing at this level.

 

[Evil Little]

Agree with the article agree!

The following is what I wrote just yesterday:

Regarding Reimer, I'm getting frustrated with--what I perceive to be--misconceptions about what the Leafs (sic) and the Jets are in defence/goaltending.

This weird notion that the Leaves are a playoff team who have been letdown by terrible goaltending is insulting to me as a fan of a playoff team who have been let down by terrible goaltending. Yes, some goals Reimer lets in are soft, but he also stops significantly more shots on net than Pavelec. At the end of the day, more saves = better goaltending.

Similarly, when people complain that the Jets defence is leaving Pavelec high-and-dry all the time, Reimer perfectly illustrates that an average goalie can have an average save percentage even with the best puck-watchers in the league in front of them.

So to clear things up:

Leafs problem ≠ terrible goaltending costing them playoffs
Leafs problem = world-class defensive ineptitude

Jets problem ≠ world-class defensive ineptitude
Jets problem = terrible goaltending costing them playoffs

Why is everyone getting this backwards?

Edit:

Though I will address one slight issue with said article:

Meanwhile, Pavelec has led the league in goals conceded in each of the last three seasons (191, 119, 163), despite the fact that Winnipeg has been solidly in the middle of the pack in terms of shots allowed per game in each of them (15th, 17th, 18th).

Comparing a season stat to a per-game stat isn't entirely fair, given the fact that Pavelec was the most overworked goaltender in the league. Though Pavelec is indeed terrible, and that's the part that matters.

 

[DarthMonty]

Well, apparently the media has finally sniffed out the truth about Pavelec. This is the third I've read today discussing his league worst SV%.

Now, if only the fine folks at the Freep and TSN1290 can do the same.

 

[Moe Mantha]

The only issue I have with the Jets getting Riemer would be... how will he handle playing in front of friends and family? It's hard enough playing at this level.

This.

While we need new goaltending, Reimer is not the answer.

 

[Channelcat]

This.

While we need new goaltending, Reimer is not the answer.

Fortunately we've got 3 young prospect who look very very promising, and I suspect that TNSE will go forward with those guys in the hopes that one will emerge to be a solid starter. I for one, expect Hutchinson to be very good tonight and will get people talking.

 

[King Woodballs]

Do the Jets need improved goaltending? Clearly yes.
Is that improvment Reimer? Not to me he isnt.

 

[Evil Little]

I don't think anyone's saying Reimer is the answer. But he's better than Pavelec, and will likely be had for pennies on the dollar. There are a lot more UFA goaltenders and underutilized starters who are better than Pavelec--and some better then Reimer--but for someone like Miller, Hiller, or Halak you're going to need to loosen the purse strings a whole lot. And you'd need to give the Capitals some real incentive to give up Holtby's combination of starter pedigree and downright reasonable salary.

With the Jets goalie prospect depth, there's no need to throw a snow-clearing budget at a UFA to be the keeper of the future. Especially since that mistake was already made once. The Jets need a stop-gap and I'm confident that Toronto's favourite punching bag could fill that role, though he's certainly not the only who could.

 

[knorthern knight]

With the Jets goalie prospect depth, there's no need to throw a snow-clearing budget at a UFA to be the keeper of the future. Especially since that mistake was already made once. The Jets need a stop-gap and I'm confident that Toronto's favourite punching bag could fill that role, though he's certainly not the only who could.

His season SV% is .907... but ... October 1st through December 7th, Reimer was on fire. In the 20 games since then, he's been a dumpster fire. I checked his game log at http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8473503&season=20132014&view=gamelog

• From October 1st to December 7th, he averaged .932 SV%
• From December 12th to April 5, he averaged .886 SV%

I don't know what caused this collapse, but he's "performed" at a sub-P****** level the last half of the season, which is incredibly bad. He gives up juicy rebounds, and is down on the ice a lot, like someone we know. Do not want.

Hutchinson looks better suited. His first game looked a lot more confident than what we've been used to. I could easily see him holding the fort for a couple of years, backed up by Pasquale. If anything, I could see him competing with Hellebucyk+Comrie when they try to step up to the Jets in a few years.

 

[Evil Little]

His season SV% is .907... but ... October 1st through December 7th, Reimer was on fire. In the 20 games since then, he's been a dumpster fire. I checked his game log at http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8473503&season=20132014&view=gamelog

• From October 1st to December 7th, he averaged .932 SV%
• From December 12th to April 5, he averaged .886 SV%

I don't know what caused this collapse, but he's "performed" at a sub-P****** level the last half of the season, which is incredibly bad. He gives up juicy rebounds, and is down on the ice a lot, like someone we know. Do not want.

Hutchinson looks better suited. His first game looked a lot more confident than what we've been used to. I could easily see him holding the fort for a couple of years, backed up by Pasquale. If anything, I could see him competing with Hellebucyk+Comrie when they try to step up to the Jets in a few years.

And Pavelec was .924 in November.

I'm not going to look at Reimer as an .886 goaltender just as I'm not going to look at him as a .932 goaltender.

Yes, he's having a bad year, but given how delicate people generally are with the mental well-being of the madmen in the pipes--do any other roster changes get made to prevent players from "losing their confidence"?--it's shocking how much Reimer has been blamed for everything that went wrong with the Leefs this year.

But really all I'm saying is that Reimer is not terrible, will be looking for a job, and will be significantly better than Pavelec.

For the record, unlike many, I'd be fine with going into next season with Montoya/Hutchinson, Hutchinson/Pasquale, Pasquale/Tabaracci, Darren Pang in Ben Bishop's equipment/Ben Bishop's equipment on its own, etc. Whoever. As long as Pavelec and his elephant of a contract aren't around, something can be done during the year if absolutely necessary.

 

[Yukon Joe]

His season SV% is .907... but ... October 1st through December 7th, Reimer was on fire. In the 20 games since then, he's been a dumpster fire. I checked his game log at http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8473503&season=20132014&view=gamelog

• From October 1st to December 7th, he averaged .932 SV%
• From December 12th to April 5, he averaged .886 SV%

I don't know what caused this collapse, but he's "performed" at a sub-P****** level the last half of the season, which is incredibly bad. He gives up juicy rebounds, and is down on the ice a lot, like someone we know. Do not want.

Haven't the stats guys taught us that you can never cherry pick short periods of time like that?

Any goalie in the NHl has some level of talent. They can get hot/lucky for stretches, and grow cold/unlucky for others. It's only by looking at a very large sample size that the results become statistically significant.

 

[White Out 403*]

Haven't the stats guys taught us that you can never cherry pick short periods of time like that?

Any goalie in the NHl has some level of talent. They can get hot/lucky for stretches, and grow cold/unlucky for others. It's only by looking at a very large sample size that the results become statistically significant.

Fine, Reimer is a career 913 goaltender, just slightly below league average. Fatty is 906. There. done.

edit: And for further food for thought Reimer has had 5 statistically significant seasons as a starter. 3 of them are above average goaltending, and 2 of them were not. One could make the argument that the bad years are outliers not to be trusted. That argument doesn't exist with Pavelec who's been getting worse year by year and posted an average year all but once in , what, 6 seasons as a starter?

 

[Sweech]

Is still can't get past reading a thread with "goaltending" in the title as "goatlending".

 

[HannuJ]

Fortunately we've got 3 young prospect who look very very promising, and I suspect that TNSE will go forward with those guys in the hopes that one will emerge to be a solid starter. I for one, expect Hutchinson to be very good tonight and will get people talking.

you, for one, are totally off.
Hutch will be lucky if he's a back-up. he will not come into camp next year as a starter, unless Chevy wants to lose his job.

 

[White Out 403*]

you, for one, are totally off.
Hutch will be lucky if he's a back-up. he will not come into camp next year as a starter, unless Chevy wants to lose his job.

If chevy wants to lose his job he should keep status quo and designate Pavelec as the #1 for 2014

 

[Sweech]

you, for one, are totally off.
Hutch will be lucky if he's a back-up. he will not come into camp next year as a starter, unless Chevy wants to lose his job.

Well he's been rolling with the worst starter in the entire league and hasn't lost his job so I really can't see a noose around his neck related to goaltending.

 

[buggs]

Fine, Reimer is a career 913 goaltender, just slightly below league average. Fatty is 906. There. done.

edit: And for further food for thought Reimer has had 5 statistically significant seasons as a starter. 3 of them are above average goaltending, and 2 of them were not. One could make the argument that the bad years are outliers not to be trusted. That argument doesn't exist with Pavelec who's been getting worse year by year and posted an average year all but once in , what, 6 seasons as a starter?

When 40% of your data is represented, you can in no way assume that's the outlier. The sample size is not nearly large enough (5 seasons) to simply discount those as anomalies.

Reimer's better than Pavelec, but I don't want either here.

 

[White Out 403*]

All I'm saying is there is a case to be made. One goaltender year by year fails to hit the league average by a very wide miss. The other goaltender has played above average in 3 of his 5 seasons. Yes you can say 2 full years are large sample sizes that should be considered just as valid. All I said is the argument exists and can be made, agree or not with it.

Pavs argument as a #1 at this time is simply "hes paid as a #1 and has a lot of experience". Thus far the experience hasn't been worth a nickel.

 

[tntkid]

The Jets better not cheapskate this problem in the off season by picking up Reimer.

Thompson & Chipman better open their wallets for a legit starting goaltender.

 

[truck]

The Jets better not cheapskate this problem in the off season by picking up Reimer.

Thompson & Chipman better open their wallets for a legit starting goaltender.

I'd rather them throw a marginal overpay at Greiss that a big money long term deal at Halak or Hiller. No need to give a tender more that 2 or 3.

 

[Evil Little]

All I'm saying is there is a case to be made. One goaltender year by year fails to hit the league average by a very wide miss. The other goaltender has played above average in 3 of his 5 seasons. Yes you can say 2 full years are large sample sizes that should be considered just as valid. All I said is the argument exists and can be made, agree or not with it.

Pavs argument as a #1 at this time is simply "hes paid as a #1 and has a lot of experience". Thus far the experience hasn't been worth a nickel.

Originally, I read that as 'has been worth a nickel'.

Naturally, I was going to take issue with that valuation.

I'd rather them throw a marginal overpay at Greiss that a big money long term deal at Halak or Hiller. No need to give a tender more that 2 or 3.

Agreed. The 'blue chippers' are all going to get 5-7 year deals. That wouldn't be good for the Jets right now (and possibly, as some have made convincing cases to support, for any team ever).