Worse penalty: 5 minute major or 2 minutes 5v3

[ViD]

What’s tougher to kill ?

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[SnowblindNYR]

Intuitively it seems the 5 on 3. But you have a really good chance to get one and then an average chance to get a second with less than 2 minutes. That's worst case scenario. A major gives you an average chance to score more than one for 5 minutes. By average I don't mean literally average, but whatever your average PP % is.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

One thing with the 5 minute major is that if you manipulate it properly, you can likely force the PKing to take another penalty, resulting in a 5v3.

It's much harder to find additional penalties called on a team defending a 5v3, even blatant infractions.

 

[Midnight Judges]

It seems to me there is an objective correct answer here, unless somehow the team composition makes 1 group better at 3v5 vs 4v5 than another group.

Couldn't we just get some firm data on this?

What are the percentages? What are the g/60 for each? Then do the math from there?

 

[KevSkillz4]

5 min because they can score any goal than want.

 

[dr robbie]

I'm sure there is data to back up one claim or the other. Personally, I feel like I'd rather have the 5v3 for 2 mins. Allows you to use your top PK units and you only need one well-timed dump in to get a good line change. 5 min major requires multiple shifts and if you don't get your line changes in, you're going to get some really tired players out there quickly.

 

[RefalancheStillLose]

it would depend on the situation in the game i think.
If I'm down by 1or2 and have a choice, I'd take a full 2m 5 on 3, as a full 5 on 3 should be almost automatically 1g.
but otherwise I'm going to lean 5minute major.
Basically it's 5m of McDavid, Dria, MacKinnon, and Rantanen sitting on the bench or they're now expelling energy killing penalties.

 

[CaptainShark]

Ask the VGK

 

[The Macho King]

Toughest part of a PP is zone entries - most time that's killed is probably killed on clears + preventing clean entries. It's harder to clear a 3v5, and it's way harder to prevent a clean entry even if you get a clear. Hell, it's even harder to win the faceoff because the PP should probably tie up and get help instead of trying to win a clean draw.

Even if the 5 minute major scores on the PP, they've still got to work it back into the zone with control. 5v3 for 2 minutes *should* be close to a guaranteed goal.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

The 5 on 3 for a full 2 minute is MUCH harder to defend. The likelihood of giving up a goal is probably 80%. A 5 min major is essentially two, 2 min penalties and another half, Average 5 on 4 PP is what, around 20%? So you should have around a 50% chance to score on that major.

One thing with the 5 minute major is that if you manipulate it properly, you can likely force the PKing to take another penalty, resulting in a 5v3.

It's much harder to find additional penalties called on a team defending a 5v3, even blatant infractions.

You literally have to almost kill a guy for the refs to call another penalty on the team during a 5 min major, because like a full 2 minute 5 on 3, they know it's almost definitely going to lead to a goal.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

The 5 on 3 for a full 2 minute is MUCH harder to defend. The likelihood of giving up a goal is probably 75%. A 5 min major is essentially two, 2 min penalties and another half, Average 5 on 4 PP is what, around 20%? So you should have around a 50% chance to score on that major.

But 5 on 3 you have a cap of two goals scored, with the second one in fewer than 2 minutes. A 5 minute major has no cap and if you score early you can have 4+ minutes to score a second one, not to mention a third is possible as well.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

But 5 on 3 you have a cap of two goals scored, with the second one in fewer than 2 minutes. A 5 minute major has no cap and if you score early you can have 4+ minutes to score a second one, not to mention a third is possible as well.

But that isn't the question.

The question was what is harder to kill off.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

But that isn't the question.

The question was what is harder to kill off.

I guess the question is ambiguous, Is it to avoid giving up just one, I'd say yes then the full 2 minute 5 on 3.

 

[pcruz]

What does a 5 minute power play feel like?


Or

What does a 5 on 3 for longer than 45 seconds feel like?

 

[lwvs84]

Depends on the power play type facing. I think if you're playing against a bad power play, a 5 on 3 is worse because they're more likely to score 1 goal. If you're going against a team like Edmonton, they may score 3 in 5 minutes as opposed to 1-2 with a 5 on 3.

 

[syz]

Depends on the power play type facing. I think if you're playing against a bad power play, a 5 on 3 is worse because they're more likely to score 1 goal. If you're going against a team like Edmonton, they may score 3 in 5 minutes as opposed to 1-2 with a 5 on 3.

Was my thought as well. If it's an elite power play I'd absolutely rather just give them the 5 on 3. They'll almost certainly get one but maybe you'll get a kill on the 2nd one.

A mid or bad power play still wouldn't be as likely to do much damage in 5 minutes of 5-on-4 whereas 5-on-3 would push it more in their advantage.

 

[ijuka]

5 minute major because during it you can be scored an infinite amount of goals against, or even 3 or 4, while 2min 5on3 can only get you scored 1 goal against, and potentially 1 more on 5on4(but 5on4 no longer is 5on3).

 

[banks]

Nothing is more dangerous than a 5on3 against. That's the harder PK situation.

Obviously some of them aren't a big deal when they're only for like a few seconds. But assuming it's for a decent amount of time, like 90 seconds, then it's way more likely to be converted than a 5 minute major.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Depends on the power play type facing. I think if you're playing against a bad power play, a 5 on 3 is worse because they're more likely to score 1 goal. If you're going against a team like Edmonton, they may score 3 in 5 minutes as opposed to 1-2 with a 5 on 3.

Was my thought as well. If it's an elite power play I'd absolutely rather just give them the 5 on 3. They'll almost certainly get one but maybe you'll get a kill on the 2nd one.

A mid or bad power play still wouldn't be as likely to do much damage in 5 minutes of 5-on-4 whereas 5-on-3 would push it more in their advantage.

5 minute major because during it you can be scored an infinite amount of goals against, or even 3 or 4, while 2min 5on3 can only get you scored 1 goal against, and potentially 1 more on 5on4(but 5on4 no longer is 5on3).

That’s not the question.

 

[The Macho King]

Nothing is more dangerous than a 5on3 against. That's the harder PK situation.

Obviously some of them aren't a big deal when they're only for like a few seconds. But assuming it's for a decent amount of time, like 90 seconds, then it's way more likely to be converted than a 5 minute major.

Even 10 seconds of 5 on 3 can be dangerous though. That's time to move the puck around and get the goalie moving left to right. Obviously more is better, but 5 on 3s can be really short affairs if the team can whip the puck around fast enough.

Edit: 5 minute PPs face other issues. The second unit is going to *have* to spend a pretty significant amount of time out there, and there's a pretty big talent dip there. Also - on a 5 minute PP I wouldn't be shocked if refs are a lot more willing to make a ticky tack hooking call on the attacking team to negate part of the advantage. Finally - how often do teams score multiple goals in 5 minute PPs? Doesn't feel like it happens often.

 

[Machinehead]

If you can shut down a team's powerplay, you can do it for 5 minutes.

It's very difficult for a 5v3 powerplay to not cook.