Prospect Info: WJC -- Wrap of Devils Prospects

Offseason Champs

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Even with Holtz underperforming on the score sheet I think the point being made is that it doesn’t matter he had a bad tournament because you know he’s a first line talent/potentially elite.
What is important is seeing Mercer being able to hang with a future star studded Canadian team and that we have something in a few of our other fringe prospects. Got to see Muk on a big stage against future competition. It’s all positive on our end.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Alex Holtz was 11th in the tournament in expected Primpary Points per 60.... D+ seems extremely harsh and reactionary to the US game and maybe the game against finland where he didnt show any flashes of brilliance.

Again, I'm a big fan of Holtz. But I hold him to higher expectations because of this. He was the #7 overall pick, he was one of the top-2 go-to players for Team Sweden, whom many predicted to medal (I don't see how) -- even win gold (I really really don't see how).

I have conceded that Holtz lacked anything resembling a center, which he needs more than a possession-type winger like Podkolzin or Zegras. Sweden's top center going into the tournament was Karl Henriksson, who -- to give context -- would have had zero chance of cracking the roster for Canada or the USA. When it came out that Henriksson was missing the tournament, Sweden was really in trouble up the middle. Sweden also lacked offensive defensemen to move the puck up ice -- their top two defenders were Soderstrom and Bjornfot, both of whom are known more for their stay-at-home play than their offense.

So, I give Holtz the benefit of the doubt in that his expectations were pretty much unreachable due to circumstances beyond his control. Still, he only played one game where he truly stood out -- the overtime loss vs. Russia. He was certainly outstanding in that game. But, still. Holtz did not score vs. Austria or the Czechs, nor did he move the needle vs. the USA or Finland.

If this were a "depth guy" like Moynihan or Gritsyuk, I'd give him a pass, for sure. But Holtz was relied upon to score, and he did not achieve this. Therefore, though I didn't fail him, I could not -- by my own standards -- give him a good grade, either. And I went with the D+.

I've said it many times, we cannot look too deeply into one tournament to gauge a player's future. I have no doubt that Holtz will be a terrific goal-scorer at the NHL level. I am not doubting his selection at #7 overall, nor am I questioning his future prospects. All I am saying, is that 10 years from now when Holtz looks back at the 2021 WJC, it will not be without some regret. I expect him to improve upon this, and I expect Alexander Holtz to blossom into an outstanding goal-scorer at the NHL level.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Even with Holtz underperforming on the score sheet I think the point being made is that it doesn’t matter he had a bad tournament because you know he’s a first line talent/potentially elite.
What is important is seeing Mercer being able to hang with a future star studded Canadian team and that we have something in a few of our other fringe prospects. Got to see Muk on a big stage against future competition. It’s all positive on our end.

Agreed 100%.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Quick question for you @StevenToddIves :

What grade would you give Rossi after the tournament?

Great question.

I was watching an Austria game (vs. USA) with a friend, and Rossi barely touched the puck, because his team barely touched the puck. There were probably 4 players on Austria who would have had a shot to crack the roster of any other team in the tournament. They were hideously over-matched.

I wondered aloud what the stats would be if Stutzle and Rossi were flip-flopped between teams. I could not pretend that I knew the answer to this question, but to me it was an interesting question nevertheless.

Ultimately? I would have given Rossi a 'D'. He was visibly frustrated in all three zones. He took a couple of penalties he's like to have back. He certainly tried to do too much by himself.

Again -- like with Holtz -- I do not think that a rough 2021 in any way affects Rossi's future prospects. Prior to the 2020 draft, I ranked Rossi #4 overall. If I had to re-rank that class again today, Rossi would still be my #4 overall. But, like many others, I was a bit underwhelmed by his 2021 WJC performance.

This was my draft-day top 13 for 2020:

1 Lafreniere
2 Byfield
3 Stutzle
4 Rossi
5 Sanderson
6 Drysdale
7 Raymond
8 Jarvis
9 Perfetti
10 Quinn
11 Holtz
12 Perreault
13 Mercer

This would be my top 13 now:
1 Lafreniere
2 Byfield
3 Stutzle
4 Rossi
5 Sanderson
6 Drysdale
7 Raymond
8 Lundell
9 Holtz
10 Mercer
11 Perfetti
12 Jarvis
13 Amirov

My top 7 remains exactly the same. I already concede that I seriously underestimated Lundell -- I've come away impressed from every viewing of him since the draft. My earliest "over-rank" would seem to be Quinn, who somehow managed to have a very weak WJC despite the fact his team was dominant all tournament long. Though I would still have Quinn around my top 15 -- it's tough to rank him over a RW like Mercer (12) or Amirov (13) right now. Jarvis was very tough for me to drop because I felt he should have made the Canadian team, and has yet to play as the WHL has been suspended due to Covid. So, with Jarvis we'll say the drop is no fault of his own, and quite possibly a temporary and situational condition.

Despite a poor WJC, I'm actually moving Holtz up. I feel his play has been excellent in the SHL, and much of the reason for his underwhelming 2021 WJC is because he's not a player who dictates play, and he played on a team which was very suspect at center and lacking high-end puck-moving D.
 
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ChicksDigTheTrap

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Again, I'm a big fan of Holtz. But I hold him to higher expectations because of this. He was the #7 overall pick, he was one of the top-2 go-to players for Team Sweden, whom many predicted to medal (I don't see how) -- even win gold (I really really don't see how).

I have conceded that Holtz lacked anything resembling a center, which he needs more than a possession-type winger like Podkolzin or Zegras. Sweden's top center going into the tournament was Karl Henriksson, who -- to give context -- would have had zero chance of cracking the roster for Canada or the USA. When it came out that Henriksson was missing the tournament, Sweden was really in trouble up the middle. Sweden also lacked offensive defensemen to move the puck up ice -- their top two defenders were Soderstrom and Bjornfot, both of whom are known more for their stay-at-home play than their offense.

So, I give Holtz the benefit of the doubt in that his expectations were pretty much unreachable due to circumstances beyond his control. Still, he only played one game where he truly stood out -- the overtime loss vs. Russia. He was certainly outstanding in that game. But, still. Holtz did not score vs. Austria or the Czechs, nor did he move the needle vs. the USA or Finlands

If this were a "depth guy" like Moynihan or Gritsyuk, I'd give him a pass, for sure. But Holtz was relied upon to score, and he did not achieve this. Therefore, though I didn't fail him, I could not -- by my own standards -- give him a good grade, either. And I went with the D+.

I've said it many times, we cannot look too deeply into one tournament to gauge a player's future. I have no doubt that Holtz will be a terrific goal-scorer at the NHL level. I am not doubting his selection at #7 overall, nor am I questioning his future prospects. All I am saying, is that 10 years from now when Holtz looks back at the 2021 WJC, it will not be without some regret. I expect him to improve upon this, and I expect Alexander Holtz to blossom into an outstanding goal-scorer at the NHL level.
Totally agree. I am a "Holtz guy". I posted on lottery night that if Holtz was on the board I would be happy with the pick. I have a feeling if that was a Devils playoff series 4 years from now posters would be fine with your grade for him. He job is to finish, not hit 6 posts or whatever. Like you it does not change my view of him at all as a prospect and I am still glad the Devils took him. Can't wait for him to be playing with the Devils full time. I have a feeling I am going to love him
 

Deas

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Feb 3, 2017
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Again, I'm a big fan of Holtz. But I hold him to higher expectations because of this. He was the #7 overall pick, he was one of the top-2 go-to players for Team Sweden, whom many predicted to medal (I don't see how) -- even win gold (I really really don't see how).

I have conceded that Holtz lacked anything resembling a center, which he needs more than a possession-type winger like Podkolzin or Zegras. Sweden's top center going into the tournament was Karl Henriksson, who -- to give context -- would have had zero chance of cracking the roster for Canada or the USA. When it came out that Henriksson was missing the tournament, Sweden was really in trouble up the middle. Sweden also lacked offensive defensemen to move the puck up ice -- their top two defenders were Soderstrom and Bjornfot, both of whom are known more for their stay-at-home play than their offense.

So, I give Holtz the benefit of the doubt in that his expectations were pretty much unreachable due to circumstances beyond his control. Still, he only played one game where he truly stood out -- the overtime loss vs. Russia. He was certainly outstanding in that game. But, still. Holtz did not score vs. Austria or the Czechs, nor did he move the needle vs. the USA or Finland.

If this were a "depth guy" like Moynihan or Gritsyuk, I'd give him a pass, for sure. But Holtz was relied upon to score, and he did not achieve this. Therefore, though I didn't fail him, I could not -- by my own standards -- give him a good grade, either. And I went with the D+.

I've said it many times, we cannot look too deeply into one tournament to gauge a player's future. I have no doubt that Holtz will be a terrific goal-scorer at the NHL level. I am not doubting his selection at #7 overall, nor am I questioning his future prospects. All I am saying, is that 10 years from now when Holtz looks back at the 2021 WJC, it will not be without some regret. I expect him to improve upon this, and I expect Alexander Holtz to blossom into an outstanding goal-scorer at the NHL level.

Who on earth predicted Sweden for gold? In Sweden we (fans) and media were very aware of the blow at center and hoped for bronze at best. Even with Eklund and Henriksson no reasonable and knowledgeable fan or expert would've deemed them favourites for gold.

The number one center would've been Eklund, not Henriksson. Eklund - born late 02 and drafted after this season - is driving play and producing in the SHL.

On D the team also had Broberg and Grans as good offensive defensemen. Going into the tournament defensive depth and skill wasn't an issue.

I agree Holtz showing doesn't remove his status as a top prospect but wanted to offer differing views on some of the things you mention about team Sweden.
 

StevenToddIves

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Who on earth predicted Sweden for gold? In Sweden we (fans) and media were very aware of the blow at center and hoped for bronze at best. Even with Eklund and Henriksson no reasonable and knowledgeable fan or expert would've deemed them favourites for gold.

The number one center would've been Eklund, not Henriksson. Eklund - born late 02 and drafted after this season - is driving play and producing in the SHL.

On D the team also had Broberg and Grans as good offensive defensemen. Going into the tournament defensive depth and skill wasn't an issue.

I agree Holtz showing doesn't remove his status as a top prospect but wanted to offer differing views on some of the things you mention about team Sweden.

I agree with you on Eklund -- he's a terrific prospect for the 2021 draft and likely to be a top 10 selection. He's a heck of a young talent.

I disagree with you on Broberg and Grans. Broberg had a very, very underwhelming showing -- he was poor every game outside of the wins vs. the Czechs and Austrians. His play on the game winning Finland goal bordered on the baffling. Grans is also a player who has a very tough time defending. The defender I really hoped the Swedes would bring to the WJC was Viktor Persson, who is very good and sorely underrated. Persson would have really helped this team, I'm not sure why they left him off the roster.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Brooklyn, NY
Who on earth predicted Sweden for gold? In Sweden we (fans) and media were very aware of the blow at center and hoped for bronze at best. Even with Eklund and Henriksson no reasonable and knowledgeable fan or expert would've deemed them favourites for gold.

The number one center would've been Eklund, not Henriksson. Eklund - born late 02 and drafted after this season - is driving play and producing in the SHL.

On D the team also had Broberg and Grans as good offensive defensemen. Going into the tournament defensive depth and skill wasn't an issue.

I agree Holtz showing doesn't remove his status as a top prospect but wanted to offer differing views on some of the things you mention about team Sweden.

For reference, here are some "Sweden wins the gold" predictions:

7 Predictions for the 2021 World Junior Championship

World Juniors: Picks and Predictions
 

Deas

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Feb 3, 2017
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Broberg and Grans - You mentioned offensive capacity specifically. They are good at that. They're already solid to good in the SHL. Broberg unfortunately got injured which was apparent. I have not followed V Persson a lot. Which could say something as I'm a Swede following prospects at a somewhat nerdy level. A friend who's a hardcore Brynas fan loves Grans for example, and hasn't mentioned Persson either. Interesting that you bring him up, I'll give him a look.

The predictions - The Hockeywriters are something of a blog. Some of their takes have been criticized quite a bit. Concerning this piece specifically the writer admits the pick is not logical based on paper strength. On the other site 2 out of the 11 chipping in have Sweden to win gold. You didn't say many made predictions like that, so fair enough. I'd however phrase it as very very few predicted gold for Sweden.

But we're certainly nitpicking details now, hehe. Good thing the season is about to begin :)

Not an NJ fan, but optimistic about your future and hoping Holtz becomes a stud.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Brooklyn, NY
Broberg and Grans - You mentioned offensive capacity specifically. They are good at that. They're already solid to good in the SHL. Broberg unfortunately got injured which was apparent. I have not followed V Persson a lot. Which could say something as I'm a Swede following prospects at a somewhat nerdy level. A friend who's a hardcore Brynas fan loves Grans for example, and hasn't mentioned Persson either. Interesting that you bring him up, I'll give him a look.

The predictions - The Hockeywriters are something of a blog. Some of their takes have been criticized quite a bit. Concerning this piece specifically the writer admits the pick is not logical based on paper strength. On the other site 2 out of the 11 chipping in have Sweden to win gold. You didn't say many made predictions like that, so fair enough. I'd however phrase it as very very few predicted gold for Sweden.

But we're certainly nitpicking details now, hehe. Good thing the season is about to begin :)

Not an NJ fan, but optimistic about your future and hoping Holtz becomes a stud.

You're going to love Viktor Persson. Good size, good skates, good skills and good awareness in all three zones. Though he lacks the high-end upside to be a 1/2 D at the the NHL level, I'd say that being a very solid, two-way mid-pairing guy is not out of the question for him. I was shocked to see him drop to the 7th round, where he was an absolute steal for Vancouver. I had him ranked higher than Grans in the 2020 draft -- though Grans has 40+ point potential, his defensive play is not even close to acceptable and you have to wonder if that (significant) offensive potential suffers if he rounds out his game enough for an NHL coach to play him. This, to me, certainly contributed to his missing the 2021 Swedish WJC team. Personally, I would have taken both Persson and Simon Edvinsson -- another tremendous prospect who could threaten for the top 10 overall in the 2021 draft.

Much of this is my own bias, of course -- I am well-known on the Devils HFBoards for preferring strong defensive defenders over "4th forward" type defenders who struggle in their own end. I was also beat up a bit by QMJHL fans and Finnish fans for my low rankings of Jeremie Poirier and Joni Jurmo. In 2019, I ranked Tobias Bjornfot higher than Broberg for this very reason. Bjornfot is another player I am extremely high on -- I feel he was Sweden's top defender in the WJC and had a very, very good tournament.
 
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NjdevilfanJim

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Jan 26, 2020
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Liked all the info on the NJD prospects.....Agree tough with C19 and a short tournament to really look to much into their performance and what they have for future....Like Holtz he is a good prospect teams were definitely focused on taking him and Raymond out of the equation offensively that's for sure....If anything would have liked to see his play away from the puck be a little more involved...
 
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StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Brooklyn, NY
Alex Holtz was 11th in the tournament in expected Primpary Points per 60.... D+ seems extremely harsh and reactionary to the US game and maybe the game against finland where he didnt show any flashes of brilliance.

I stand by it. Again, I'm not degrading Holtz's effort, the talent he clearly flashed, nor his future. He's a goal-scorer. His job is to score goals. Sweden needed him to score goals. He did not.

To me, it's this simple. Sweden was weak at center and defense, and that is the reason the Swedes did not compete for a medal, not Alexander Holtz. But -- what if Holtz and Raymond both played the tournament of a lifetime? Would things have been different? Maybe. But neither of them were particularly good.

When assessing players, I try to put them in the context of their expectations. The barometer of Patrick Moynihan's success was not scoring 5 goals, because he was a 4th liner and that was not what was expected of him. So he got a good grade for playing well in his role. The barometer of Alexander Holtz's success was not putting up good analytic numbers, because his job was to score 5 goals. So, Holtz is graded on that curve. It's really that simple.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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24,694
Brooklyn, NY
Liked all the info on the NJD prospects.....Agree tough with C19 and a short tournament to really look to much into their performance and what they have for future....Like Holtz he is a good prospect teams were definitely focused on taking him and Raymond out of the equation offensively that's for sure....If anything would have liked to see his play away from the puck be a little more involved...

Holtz played fine. Unfortunately, we wanted more than fine out of him, and so did Sweden. Holtz was electrifying in the Russia game, I have to hand it to him for that. But the remainder of the tournament, he was dangerous but not productive.
 

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