Winnipeg Jets Prospects Thread 2016-17

[Sixty Minute Man]

I always thought Stanley's breakout was one of his strongest attributes.

If it was, then I think he'd be defending less and there would be an increase in his secondary assists.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why is scoring for a defenseman deemed to be so important? It would be nice on this team to have a big mean defense first defenseman.

To take it a step further than the other replies you have had I think that carries over to the NHL too. It is not that you want all your D to be offense first players. You want all your D to be PMD. That simply means they are good at getting the puck out of the D zone with possession. They may skate it out or they may pass it out, doesn't matter. A defenseman who does that is going to start a lot of plays that end up in the other guys net so at least will pick up a lot of 2nd A's eventually.

Going a step further, if you look at the D who score a lot you will see players who spend more time in the O zone which tends to prevent goals against much better than clearing the net or standing up F's at the blueline.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

At no point would I call any of these players a bust. Cederholm was always a longshot, but I still have hope for him; just like I still have hope for Stanley, and all of our prospects. Just don't want to overrate them. Despite drafting these guys, our D pool is still our weak point, so I would like to have another D- heavy draft

It would be good (OK, understatement) to get another 1st this year. Take Liljegren (a little lottery luck) or Foote with our own and Vilamaki or Hague with the other.

That would give a huge boost to our D prospect pool. Where we are going to pick up another 1st I don't know. Certainly Stafford and Burmi don't bring that much. Some of the maneuvring around the exp draft at the TD might play into our hands.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Windsor uses Stanley a lot in the defensive zone. He almost always is out against the other teams top lines and starts most of the time in the defensive zone. I think his lack of assists is more to do with Windsors lack of secondary scoring from its forwards. They score a lot less then the teams with similar records and they are going to have to make some moves to address that problem

He is a much better player this year then last year from my viewings of him. Not earth shaking better but improvement none the less.

 

[ps241]

I look at Griffin Reinhart as being the poster boy for this cautionary tale of how great junior shut down defenders still need to score.

He had a very decent draft -1 year and was just over .5 PPG for the Oil Kings. I remember thinking that he was looking really good. I started getting a bit concerned in his draft year when the scoring needle didn't really move much and when I watched him play I thought he was positionally sound and big but really soft and on draft day I said I wanted any of the top D guys except Reinhart (I thought he was being way overrated). The following 2 seasons in junior his raw scoring numbers actually decreased??? Meanwhile he was doing ok with Team Canada and even helped lead the Oil Kings to the memorial cup as the "shutdown" defender. The red flag was always that he didn't have the skill to dominate offensively especially for a top 10 pick in an NHL draft. Perhaps one day Griff will make the NHL but if he couldn't crack that Oiler D line up last season it will take a minor miracle for things to change.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I look at Griffin Reinhart as being the poster boy for this cautionary tale of how great junior shut down defenders still need to score.

He had a very decent draft -1 year and was just over .5 PPG for the Oil Kings. I remember thinking that he was looking really good. I started getting a bit concerned in his draft year when the scoring needle didn't really move much and when I watched him play I thought he was positionally sound and big but really soft and on draft day I said I want any of the top D guys except Reinhart. The following 2 seasons in junior his raw scoring numbers actually decreased??? Meanwhile he was doing ok with Team Canada and even helped lead the Oil Kings to the memorial cup as the "shut down" defender. The red flag was always that he didn't have the skill to dominate offensively especially for a top 10 pick in an NHL draft. Perhaps one day Griff will make the NHL but if he couldn't crack that Oiler D line up last season it will take a miracle for things to change.

I know another story about another "shutdown" dman that didn't score much at the junior level and really started to take it to another level in his final year of Junior. His draft year he could be considered plodding and offensively anemic and was just a .25 ppg player. His second year while better only saw him go to .56 ppg. He did make team canada his final year and had a memorable tournament playing a very heavy shutdown game. During his draft year he fell to the 2nd round with teams passing on him because of his limited offensive upside but as it stands now he is the highest point producer of his draft class by D while still playing that heavy shutdown game he was noted for. That D man was Shea Weber.


Now I am not saying Stanley will become Shea Weber but I also can't say he won't either.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Yeah Shea Weber is actually quite the story, wasn't even taken in the first, taken in the late 2nd round no? Turns out to be a stud.

Voodoo D men also.

 

[garret9]

I know another story about another "shutdown" dman that didn't score much at the junior level and really started to take it to another level in his final year of Junior. His draft year he could be considered plodding and offensively anemic and was just a .25 ppg player. His second year while better only saw him go to .56 ppg. He did make team canada his final year and had a memorable tournament playing a very heavy shutdown game. During his draft year he fell to the 2nd round with teams passing on him because of his limited offensive upside but as it stands now he is the highest point producer of his draft class by D while still playing that heavy shutdown game he was noted for. That D man was Shea Weber.


Now I am not saying Stanley will become Shea Weber but I also can't say he won't either.

You can win the lottery, but it doesn't mean trying to is sound financial advice.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Seems like a few teams have won the lottery in terms of drafting D men late in the draft.. quite a few actually have been taken late in the draft and turned in to pretty damn good D men.

 

[garret9]

Why is scoring for a defenseman deemed to be so important? It would be nice on this team to have a big mean defense first defenseman.

Because it is a huge signal of future success.

In fact, it has been shown that scouts undervaluing scoring for defenders is a reason for scouts being inefficient as they are in drafting defenders:

Top/Mid/Low - 1st, 2nd, 3rd+ round drafted
Scorer/Non - over, under 0.6 pt/gp

1st round drafted defenders who score under 0.6 pt/gp tend to be as good as bet as 2nd round drafted defenders who score over 0.6 pt/gp on average... that's something.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

You can win the lottery, but it doesn't mean trying to is sound financial advice.

The likely hood that Stanley falls in between Reinhart and Weber is probably pretty good.

If Stanley turns out to be a D that gets 20+ points and plays 18 to 22 minutes a night for 10 years in the NHL is that a good use of that selection then?

I think that is the risk they took. I don't think he is there yet. I will be able to tell you next season if he will bet that guy.

 

[ps241]

I know another story about another "shutdown" dman that didn't score much at the junior level and really started to take it to another level in his final year of Junior. His draft year he could be considered plodding and offensively anemic and was just a .25 ppg player. His second year while better only saw him go to .56 ppg. He did make team canada his final year and had a memorable tournament playing a very heavy shutdown game. During his draft year he fell to the 2nd round with teams passing on him because of his limited offensive upside but as it stands now he is the highest point producer of his draft class by D while still playing that heavy shutdown game he was noted for. That D man was Shea Weber.


Now I am not saying Stanley will become Shea Weber but I also can't say he won't either.

touche Joe

Weber is not alone there are others that beat the odds but man the numbers are ugly.

 

[Whileee]

Some posters have cited Stanley as an example of the "Hillier effect" in drafting, but Stanley is right out of Comeau's playbook...

Valabik 2004
Denny 2005
Chiarot 2009
Sol 2009
Melchiori 2010

All big, low-scoring D.

 

[ps241]

The likely hood that Stanley falls in between Reinhart and Weber is probably pretty good.

If Stanley turns out to be a D that gets 20+ points and plays 18 to 22 minutes a night for 10 years in the NHL is that a good use of that selection then?

I think that is the risk they took. I don't think he is there yet. I will be able to tell you next season if he will bet that guy.

Not sure I agree Joe Logan is not as good as Reinhart was at the same age yet IMO. Griffin was a very effective (albeit low scoring) junior hockey player. At this point I would not be willing to concede Stanley will be as good as Reinhart one day although one can hope.

 

[Gm0ney]

Some posters have cited Stanley as an example of the "Hillier effect" in drafting, but Stanley is right out of Comeau's playbook...

Valabik 2004
Denny 2005
Chiarot 2009
Sol 2009
Melchiori 2010

All big, low-scoring D.

Comeau replaced Dan Marr as Director of Scouting when the Thrashers moved here I thought. Both had been with the Thrashers for a long time though. The whole organization had a pretty abysmal drafting record when they got here. It certainly appears they fired the right guy in 2011...

 

[Deif]

Wish we took a flyer on David Quenneville with a 7th round pick instead of trading it away for a pick next year. Having a great season with Medicine Hat, but the opposite of Stanley (stands at ~5'8).

 

[Whileee]

Comeau replaced Dan Marr as Director of Scouting when the Thrashers moved here I thought. Both had been with the Thrashers for a long time though. The whole organization had a pretty abysmal drafting record when they got here. It certainly appears they fired the right guy in 2011...

Comeau was Director of Amateur Scouting from 2003-4...

http://www.eliteprospects.com/staff.php?staff=2368

 

[ps241]

Comeau replaced Dan Marr as Director of Scouting when the Thrashers moved here I thought. Both had been with the Thrashers for a long time though. The whole organization had a pretty abysmal drafting record when they got here. It certainly appears they fired the right guy in 2011...

Thus begun the golden era of drafts between 2011-2015

 

[Gm0ney]

Comeau was Director of Amateur Scouting from 2003-4...

http://www.eliteprospects.com/staff.php?staff=2368

There seems to have been some overlap: http://www.eliteprospects.com/staff.php?staff=2378

 

[ps241]

Comeau was Director of Amateur Scouting from 2003-4...

http://www.eliteprospects.com/staff.php?staff=2368

I don't think Eliteprospects got it right Whileee Dan Marr ran the show in Atlanta (From NHL.com in 2011):

"Marr, who was released from his duties as Atlanta's Director of Amateur Scouting and Player Development when the franchise relocated to Winnipeg in June, replaces McGuire, who died April 7 following a five-month battle with cancer.

Marr served as Atlanta's chief scout for more than three years, from 2000-03, before being promoted to director of amateur scouting and player development in July 2003. He joined the Thrashers as a head scout in September 1998 after spending more than 12 years with the Maple Leafs."

 

[Deif]

Because it is a huge signal of future success.

In fact, it has been shown that scouts undervaluing scoring for defenders is a reason for scouts being inefficient as they are in drafting defenders:

Top/Mid/Low - 1st, 2nd, 3rd+ round drafted
Scorer/Non - over, under 0.6 pt/gp

1st round drafted defenders who score under 0.6 pt/gp tend to be as good as bet as 2nd round drafted defenders who score over 0.6 pt/gp on average... that's something.

Do you have this post saved somewhere? You repeat it so many times

 

[Whileee]

I don't think Eliteprospects got it right Whileee Dan Marr ran the show in Atlanta (From NHL.com in 2011):

Comeau was head scout. Matt was director of scouting, I think.

 

[ps241]

Comeau was head scout. Matt was director of scouting, I think.

"Two men say they're Jesus one of them must be wrong"

Sorry to drop that Dire Straits lyric in here but it feels like it fits

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The likely hood that Stanley falls in between Reinhart and Weber is probably pretty good.

If Stanley turns out to be a D that gets 20+ points and plays 18 to 22 minutes a night for 10 years in the NHL is that a good use of that selection then?

I think that is the risk they took. I don't think he is there yet. I will be able to tell you next season if he will bet that guy.

I would set my sights a little lower. 15 pts, 16-18 min for 10 years would make me very happy. An above average 3rd pair D and good PK'er.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Weber and Stanley are both big, and were both low scoring defensemen in their draft years. That's about where the similarities end, not even remotely similar styles or strengths.

I admittedly only saw young Shea Weber in his D+2 year with Kelowna, but I have a really hard time seeing any parallels. If we're talking comparables, I think pre-Leafs Komisarek is the upper level of what I'd expect from Stanley.