Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Mortimer Snerd]

Konecny is a leader.
KC, Iafallo and Barlow for Tkachuk.
Pionk, Schmidt and a 2nd for Quinn. He could play in Lambert's spot if he isn't quite ready yet.
If he is ready, you could play him on the third line and bump down Nino.

Konecny is even less productive in the PO than Ehlers. We are talking about trading Ehlers because of his poor PO performance. Konecny is no more a leader than Ehlers is.

Not sure why Iafallo is there but you are getting closer.

Quinn who? Pionk + Schmidt has a lot of negative value. Add a 2nd it is still negative.

 

[Daximus]

With Ehlers on the ice, we get 60+% of the goals scored at 5v5. That's both a pretty number and a stunning result too. Why ignore the effect on teammates?

The "trade Ehlers" crowd seemingly neglects the fact that it wasn't just Nik who disappeared against the Avs, but rather the entire top 6 was torn apart (some made it out with a higher SH%, though). We've had these same problems for years now. We know that Connor-Scheifele-X has been a bad combination, unless X = Ehlers. Nik has driven most second line compositions with excellent results and 5v5 production, so we've had that going for us.

If you trade Ehlers (and presumably lock in the Connor-Scheifele duo for the foreseeable future), who is meant to carry 81 and 55, who consistently lose their match-ups? Who drives the play on the second line? Many will say Perfetti - do we have a coach that trusts him to play on the second line? What options do we have in regards to the top 6, if the initial combos suck? I'd gladly hear answers to these questions, because if we go into 24-25 with both scoring lines being in terrible shape, we likely don't have to worry about our guys' playoff production at all.

When Ehlers was on the ice this playoffs we had 60+% of the goals scored at 5v5?

One outscores and the other gets outscored. That's really the name of the game.

But he doesn't. Hasn't scored in his last 6 playoff games actually. Just 2 goals in his last 12. 4 in his last 37.

We had an entire run to the WCF and he didn't contribute a single goal in 15 games.

At some point we just have to come to terms with the fact that Ehlers' game is not cut out for playoff hockey.

 

[Daximus]

Konecny is even less productive in the PO than Ehlers. We are talking about trading Ehlers because of his poor PO performance. Konecny is no more a leader than Ehlers is.

Not sure why Iafallo is there but you are getting closer.

Quinn who? Pionk + Schmidt has a lot of negative value. Add a 2nd it is still negative.

Yeah I don't think Konecny is the answer. Seems to be another guy that kind of wilts in the playoffs. For some guys when the going gets rough they stick to the perimeter.

I want guys that aren't afraid to drive the net. Get hit to make a play. Those are guys you win Cups with. And no I'm not just talking about big guys. Pletny of smaller players can preform in the playoffs because they aren't afraid to get hit to make a play.

 

[Gil Fisher]

When Ehlers was on the ice this playoffs we had 60+% of the goals scored at 5v5?



But he doesn't. Hasn't scored in his last 6 playoff games actually. Just 2 goals in his last 12. 4 in his last 37.

We had an entire run to the WCF and he didn't contribute a single goal in 15 games.

At some point we just have to come to terms with the fact that Ehlers' game is not cut out for playoff hockey.

Missed that you were specifically discussing playoffs.

 

[Daximus]

Missed that you were specifically discussing playoffs.

Yeah that's all it really comes down to for me right now. I have no issues with the way Ehlers plays in the regular season. Great player, that likely just produces below what he should be but in the playoffs he's a different player and it's starting to sour on me.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Yeah that's all it really comes down to for me right now. I have no issues with the way Ehlers plays in the regular season. Great player, that likely just produces below what he should be but in the playoffs he's a different player and it's starting to sour on me.

You can excuse a fella for skimming through the Ehlers-Connor posts.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

I'm leaning towards the idea of spending a little more than normal for our backup and try to keep Broissoit.

Not sure what his market will be, but perhaps 2-3 years at 2.75. I can see him getting 3.25 somewhere.

After watching us flush all that money away with the Pionk / Schmidt contracts, I can rationalize keeping the Helly/LB tandem together for the added cost. Helly has never gone down with injury for any length of time, so we've never yet felt that pain of relying on our backup.

If other options develop down the road, LB could be a valued trade chip as well.

 

[Daximus]

I'm leaning towards the idea of spending a little more than normal for our backup and try to keep Broissoit.

Not sure what his market will be, but perhaps 2-3 years at 2.75. I can see him getting 3.25 somewhere.

After watching us flush all that money away with the Pionk / Schmidt contracts, I can rationalize keeping the Helly/LB tandem together for the added cost. Helly has never gone down with injury for any length of time, so we've never yet felt that pain of relying on our backup.

If other options develop down the road, LB could be a valued trade chip as well.

I don't think Brossoit will have a hard time finding decent money in FA. Heck with how many teams that will be out there looking for a starter or a 1A/B kind of guy he may even manage to get himself a nice $3+mil deal.

I think the big thing for Brossoit will be a starter job that can net him 40+games. Something he's not going to get here without an injury to Helle. He only signed here because the Jets didn't think they were going to be able to keep Helle at the time.

 

[JetsUK]

You can excuse a fella for skimming through the Ehlers-Connor posts.

Yep -- definitely one benefit to an Ehlers trade.

Love the player, easily one of my favourite Jets and watching him in full flight made a lot of meh games more exciting -- but he's gone. One of the few legit trade pieces we have to improve the D, and unlikely to extend.

And honestly I think Eels is better off on a new team, and hopefully the Jets get some value back, even if it's picks and a promising roster player.

Croissant is gone also, and deserves it. He was brilliant this season and deserves a shot at a starter job. Why he wasn't played more at key times in the regular season and POs is beyond me. Helle should no longer be allowed to manage his own useage, at all times.

And hopefully a player like Vilardi will also up his game in the POs. I thought he was mostly invisible for long stretches.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Coaches Out: Bowness, Lauer

Coaches In: Ryan Warsofsky, Jay Woodcraft



Players Out: Toffoli, Monahan, Stanley, Dillon



Players In: Lindholm, Joshua, Carrier, Pesce, Kahkonen



Resign: Perfetti, Gustafsson, DeMelo



Trade: Ehlers for Zegras

Trade: Schmidt to Chicago for 24 3rd Rd (Ott), 25 4th Rd (NYR)

Trade: Pionk to Utah for 24 3rd Rd (Utah) and 25 2nd Rd (TOR)

Speaking of Woodcroft ....... He came in and immediately turned the Oilers around, seemed to do pretty well last year in his first full year, then completely lost the room (apparently) this year. What could he have done so wrong?

 

[Daximus]

Yep -- definitely one benefit to an Ehlers trade.

Love the player, easily one of my favourite Jets and watching him in full flight made a lot of meh games more exciting -- but he's gone. One of the few legit trade pieces we have to improve the D, and unlikely to extend.

And honestly I think Eels is better off on a new team, and hopefully the Jets get some value back, even if it's picks and a promising roster player.

And hopefully a player like Vilardi will also up his game in the POs. I thought he was mostly invisible for long stretches.

Justin Barron seems like an interesting target and starting point.

Not sure if the Habs have any interest in Ehlers. But with Morgan on the team he's probably willing to stick around and he's a good young player who has some potential. Might not be what we want right away but could work well in time.

 

[Maukkis]

When Ehlers was on the ice this playoffs we had 60+% of the goals scored at 5v5?

Please. You're far too smart to ignore multiple years of that kind of performance in favour of a five-game stretch.

Also, in order to be able to disappoint in the postseason, you have to make it in first. Without Ehlers tilting the ice, that's going to be a f***ing difficult ordeal.

 

[Daximus]

Please. You're far too smart to ignore multiple years of that kind of performance in favour of a five-game stretch.

Also, in order to be able to disappoint in the postseason, you have to make it in first. Without Ehlers tilting the ice, that's going to be a f***ing difficult ordeal.

It's not 5 games though. It's 37 now. 37 games of him becoming a completely different player the moment the puck drops in the playoffs. I'm ready to move on.

As long as we have Helle there is always a chance we can make it in. We barely had Ehlers last year and did it. This team relies on Helle far more than it relies on Ehlers.

 

[Maukkis]

It's not 5 games though. It's 37 now. 37 games of him becoming a completely different player the moment the puck drops in the playoffs. I'm ready to move on.

As long as we have Helle there is always a chance we can make it in. We barely had Ehlers last year and did it. This team relies on Helle far more than it relies on Ehlers.

Zoom out. Ehlers was the 13th most productive skater in terms of points and the 25th in pure goal-scoring at 5v5 league-wide.

It's OK to have an emotional reaction to the trashing we took at the playoffs, but we shouldn't make roster-killing decisions based on playoff results.

 

[Buffdog]

Please. You're far too smart to ignore multiple years of that kind of performance in favour of a five-game stretch.

Also, in order to be able to disappoint in the postseason, you have to make it in first. Without Ehlers tilting the ice, that's going to be a f***ing difficult ordeal.

This is the kind of stuff that people get pissed off at guys who tend to look at the game through spreadsheets for.

During regular season, it's "Ehlers is elite because of his P/60. He should be playing top line minutes. He's one of the best in the league and our coach is an idiot for how he uses him"

Then the playoffs roll around. All of a sudden, there is no more talk of P/60 (because the golden child's production has fallen off a cliff). Now it's all about "GF%", which is a fancy way of saying "+/-". Which, ironically, Statsnerds say is a bullshit stat.

Someone can always find some stat somewhere to support their position and their favorite player. That's why these discussions become rife with confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance.

 

[DRW204]

ehlers since 17-18
RS:
G/60: 1.10
Pts/60: 2.43
GF/60: 3.10

POs:
G/60: 0.24
Pts/60: 1.06
GF/60: 1.53

maybe they celebrate Halloween early in Denmark? guy loves being a ghost in the POs when it matters.

Zoom out. Ehlers was the 13th most productive skater in terms of points and the 25th in pure goal-scoring at 5v5 league-wide.

It's OK to have an emotional reaction to the trashing we took at the playoffs, but we shouldn't make roster-killing decisions based on playoff results.

yeah and none of that appeared in the POs. that's why he's getting a bulk of the criticism. he's one of the top 5v5 fwds in the league, and is an absolute shell of that in the POs, he has the biggest fall-off of any fwd the league that is around his regular-season production level.

 

[Daximus]

Zoom out. Ehlers was the 13th most productive skater in terms of points and the 25th in pure goal-scoring at 5v5 league-wide.

It's OK to have an emotional reaction to the trashing we took at the playoffs, but we shouldn't make roster-killing decisions based on playoff results.

No you absolutely should make major roster changing decisions after bad playoff results. Otherwise you are no different than the leafs. Running it back over and over and over again and expecting different results.

Personnel changes should happen this offseason. Ehlers is a logical choice to do that. I've highlighted the reason why ad nauseam in this thread.

We need a change. We need some different faces, we need to shake things up. I completely understand that Ehlers is a fan, media and player favourite of this team. I love the kid, he's a great person. But we need some changes and it starts with the guy who has never shown up when it actually matters.

Every other core player who has been here for long enough can point to some defining moments in the playoffs. Scheif, Connor, Morrissey, Lowry, Helle. They have all come up big for us at different points in the playoffs during their careers. And they have all had some low points.

Ehlers has only low points in the playoffs. He's the only core player who has been here for awhile where you can genuinely expect his game to change when things get tighter and more physical. You know what you can expect from Scheif in the playoffs, you know what you can expect from Morrissey in the playoffs and now I'm beginning to know what I can expect from Ehlers when the post season rolls around.

It's not good enough for me. We should want and expect better.

 

[Daximus]

ehlers since 17-18
RS:
G/60: 1.10
Pts/60: 2.43
GF/60: 3.10

POs:
G/60: 0.24
Pts/60: 1.06
GF/60: 1.53

maybe they celebrate Halloween early in Denmark? guy loves being a ghost in the POs when it matters.


yeah and none of that appeared in the POs. that's why he's getting a bulk of the criticism. he's one of the top 5v5 fwds in the league, and is an absolute shell of that in the POs, he has the biggest fall-off of any fwd the league that is around his regular-season production level.

His game is just not suited to playoff hockey. I can accept the fact that making it in will be tougher without him. No doubt about that. But we need guys that can actually step the hell up when it matters.

 

[Maukkis]

No you absolutely should make major roster changing decisions after bad playoff results. Otherwise you are no different than the leafs. Running it back over and over and over again and expecting different results.

Personnel changes should happen this offseason. Ehlers is a logical choice to do that. I've highlighted the reason why ad nauseam in this thread.

We need a change. We need some different faces, we need to shake things up. I completely understand that Ehlers is a fan, media and player favourite of this team. I love the kid, he's a great person. But we need some changes and it starts with the guy who has never shown up when it actually matters.

Every other core player who has been here for long enough can point to some defining moments in the playoffs. Scheif, Connor, Morrissey, Lowry, Helle. They have all come up big for us at different points in the playoffs during their careers. And they have all had some low points.

Ehlers has only low points in the playoffs. He's the only core player who has been here for awhile where you can geniunly expect his game to change when things get tighter and more physical. You know what you can expect from Scheif inteh playoffs, you know what you can expect from Morrissey in the playoffs and now I'm beginning to know what I can expect from Ehlers when the post season rolls around.

It's not good enough for me. We should want and expect better.

Give me our new top 6 without Ehlers. Don't think I've seen it here. It's going to be terrible, but I'd love to hear how a proven bad combo of Connor and Scheifele and our lack of a 2C gets us into the postseason. If Bowness stays, I wouldn't count on seeing prospects in there either.

 

[Daximus]

Give me our new top 6 without Ehlers. Don't think I've seen it here. It's going to be terrible, but I'd love to hear how a proven bad combo of Connor and Scheifele and our lack of a 2C gets us into the postseason. If Bowness stays, I wouldn't count on seeing prospects in there either.

No idea yet. Have to see what kind of return we get from Ehlers. Who gets brought in if anyone to replace Bones. What our young guns look like in camp. what other moves we make this offseason.

Oh the possibilities!

 

[10Ducky10]

Quinn who? Pionk + Schmidt has a lot of negative value. Add a 2nd it is still negative.

Jack Quinn (b.2001) Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Jack Quinn, a hockey player from Ottawa, ONT born Sep 19 2001 who was active from 2017 to 2024.

www.hockeydb.com

 

[DRW204]

ehlers was t-16th (with Forsberg, Kaprizov, and Tkachuk) in 5v5 pts this year.

lets check at some other players in the same tier of 5v5 production and how their PO careers have gone (since 17-18)

Rantanen - 1.28
Hyman - 0.74
Forsberg - 0.87
JT Miller - 0.79
J. Robertson - 0.84
Ehlers - 0.38

if he had a a bit of a drop off, sure i think ppl can live with that. but 50%? folks want to praise ehlers for his proficiency at 5v5 or regular season & put him in high regard in the league, which he undoubtedly deserves. but then turn a blind-eye and a bunch of whataboutisms when he folds and fails to produce like it (or produce similarly to other tier of fwds) in the POs (and same goes for Helle which is even higher importance).

 

[ThinIce61]

I assume you’re joking, but zero interest in Marner or his father or his cap hit or next contract demand. I couldn’t care less about a bunch of useless personal points, if he doesn’t show up when it counts and doesn’t compete when it counts…….no interest. Jets need more guys who compete when it counts, not more guys like Marner who disappears when it counts, avoids physical contact at all cost

Oh I was definitely meant as a joke. Can't stand him and believe he did less than Ehlers and Monahan combined in the series against Boston.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Chevy talked about changes over the summer... some you want and some you don't. Didn't sound at to me like he wants to run it back as is

So ...... replacing the UFAs who leave. Could be all of them. But replacing them with what?

 

[CaptainUgly]

My off-season wish list

1. Craig Berube HC
2. Trade Ehlers
3. Resign Demlo and let Monahan, Toffoli, Dillon walk.
4. Bring up Chibrikov, Lambert, and Heinola.