Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think targeting San Jose's 14th is a really solid start. I think San Jose's attendance took a big hit and with a high end lottery ball this season and a bunch of prospects already in the system the might be itching to turn the page a little bit. Ehlers is an exciting player to watch and he fits their speed system they are trying to build. If they land Celbrini they may want to add some vet presence to help him out.

I think we could potentially land 14th and a prospect from them for Ehlers, though they may try and make a bigger splash for a bigger fish.

There is also Chicago's 20th overall pick but I'm not sure the Jets want to trade Ehlers in division.

The Jets lose those trades, badly. IF those picks pan out they are contributors when Scheif and Helle are 35 ish.

I'm just not sure where it's coming from. The UFA crop is pretty mid and our biggest weakness is the right side where nearly every team has a weakness there and those that don't aren't looking to move anyone.

There will be quite a few bidders for Pesce.
Edit: Upgrading RHD is a better target for Ehlers.

 

[Daximus]

Obvious conclusion based on small samples. I think you would see a different picture if usage changed.

His usage doesn't seem to change much between the two. Yet take any 30 game sample and he's better in the regular season usually.

 

[MardyBum]

I agree about change but:
I get the criticism of Apples, but all he did this year was score 14 G, 36 pts playing on the 3rd line. He was a big part of making that 3rd line more successful offensively. It would be different if he was making 4+ mil, but for a little over 2 mil he is very good value. He works hard every game. Sure he makes mistakes. Who doesn't? Anyway, he is among the few that I would not move unless we got value + for him, considering his contract.

Helle has disappointed in the last 2 PO seasons. But prior to that he went .922 in 18 followed by .913, .904, .931 so he has been more good than bad in the PO. Those 4 PO add up to 35 games vs the 10 games of the last 2 years.

That said, I would trade Helle if we could get a good return for him. Sign Brossoit to be the starter for a couple of years.

But all of this talk of massive change is futile. We are probably going to have Bones back. I won't be surprised to see Monahan signed. I doubt there will be any major trades.

I thought Appleton was much better than last year, buuuut

He didn't play on the third line. He played on the second line and scored 36 points. He was third on the Jets in 5v5 ice time/GP. Third.

Scheifele
Connor
Appleton

Ignoring Lambert and Chibrikov (including Toffoli and Monahan) he was 12th on the team in 5v5/60 scoring, behind both Lowry and Nino.

Only Iafallo and Barron scored less of the regulars (and Gus).

I thought they made a good defensive line but this talk of his offensive prowess is meh. He got 2nd line ice time and scored like a third liner. Put Namestnikov there and they probably do better.

Even going onto the xG's, he was a far third of his two main linemates. Lowry and Nino #2 and 3 for regulars(Toffoli short sample is #1) he was 9th, behind Lowry and Nino in GF% too. He was definitely the third wheel of that line imo.

 

[Daximus]

The Jets lose those trades, badly. IF those picks pan out they are contributors when Scheif and Helle are 35 ish.



There will be quite a few bidders for Pesce.
Edit: Upgrading RHD is a better target for Ehlers.

Yeah but we still need to keep the cupboard stocked regardless of the Schief/Helle window. As a small market team we need to be cognizant of the post Scheif/Helle years as well. There is no reason to think that Helle will decline all that much at 35. Scheif on the other hand..

I'm not so sure Pesce is going to make it to UFA but I doubt we will be a major player in that either way.
We are going to need a pretty big plus attached to Ehlers to entertain the idea of a top 4 RHD.

 

[JetsUK]

Hellebuyck wants size. He wants more Brendan Dillon who was strong enough to move guys in front of the net to let him see. When you build your team around a goaltender you need to play to his strengths.

Don't disagree, but having a D besides Morrissey who can retrieve and transition the puck quickly and reliably means less time hemmed in our zone with Helle screened. A lot of the Avs best chances came when they were able to pick up their own pucks in the corners and then set up, cycle and pick their spots through a screened shot or tip.

Ideally we have a combination of Dillon and JMo type players -- and move on from players who lack their key attributes.

 

[Daximus]

Don't disagree, but having a D besides Morrissey who can retrieve and transition the puck quickly and reliably means less time hemmed in our zone with Helle screened. A lot of the Avs best chances came when they were able to pick up their own pucks in the corners and then set up, cycle and pick their spots through a screened shot or tip.

Ideally we have a combination of Dillon and JMo type players -- and move on from players who lack their key attributes.

That's the exact pairings we need to build. Puck movers, paired with big physical guys who can make an exit pass.

 

[bustamente]

Have a feeling both Schmidt and Pionk will play out their contracts here, Jets should concentrate on trying to get a least one of DeMelo or Dillon back on board, but we still lack a true top pairing D man to play with Joshua

 

[MardyBum]

6'7 couldn't clear the front of the net, do we need to convince 6 NBA players to switch to hockey to win a series?

 

[Daximus]

6'7 couldn't clear the front of the net, do we need to convince 6 NBA players to switch to hockey to win a series?

It's not really about size though. Stanley is big, but he doesn't play big.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If there is one benefit to stapling Ehlers to slow 2nd line centers over his entire career, it should be that we get to underpay him if he wants to extend. He's a 80 point talent but a career 60 point player.

On the other hand, by underplaying him, we have also diminished his trade value.

I want to keep Ehlers, because the odds of any of our current prospects replacing him are near zero. And on the off-chance Lambo turns into Ehlers, the worst problem we will have is having too many elite wingers and having to trade one.

I agree - but I will be surprised if he is willing to extend here.

 

[MardyBum]

Have a feeling both Schmidt and Pionk will play out their contracts here, Jets should concentrate on trying to get a least one of DeMelo or Dillon back on board, but we still lack a true top pairing D man to play with Joshua

Eh, could always get better LD than Dillon and run two pairings instead of stacking one for 25+ minutes, hopefully without Pionk dragging down the second pairing. Obviously RHD would be the main goal but that's every teams goal

Demelo should be their #1 re-signing target. He's their best RHD by a mile and works well with Mo(and would do even better down the lineup), Samberg might be able to step into Dillons role.

 

[MardyBum]

It's not really about size though. Stanley is big, but he doesn't play big.

There's more to defense than size? Maybe brains . I agree!

Find smarter dmen. If they're big or the biggest, awesome. But those are usually off-limits in trades. Start with a mandatory "defensive zone awareness" and start at the tallest/strongest guy and work your way down.

Playing big doesn't matter if you don't play smart, as evidenced by Stanleys stupid penalties trying to play big.

Dillon is smart, which makes him an effective big dman. Sucks he's getting up in age though.

 

[Daximus]

There's more to defense than size? Maybe brains . I agree!

Find smarter dmen. If they're big or the biggest, awesome. But those are usually off-limits in trades. Start with a mandatory "defensive zone awareness" and start at the tallest/strongest guy and work your way down.

Playing big doesn't matter if you don't play smart, as evidenced by Stanleys stupid penalties trying to play big.

Dillon is smart, which makes him an effective big dman. Sucks he's getting up in age though.

Yeah it's really tough to get those Dmen on the market. You usually have to draft and develop them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

His usage doesn't seem to change much between the two. Yet take any 30 game sample and he's better in the regular season usually.

I think that is still just too easy unless every line he has been on relies too heavily on him. I don't think it is valid to separate his performance that much from his linemates. When the whole line dies he starts trying to compensate and just gets worse. But the fault is on the whole line.

He is our most skilled player and I don't think he has any lack of heart or guts. He has shown plenty of both over his career.

He is a creative player who rubs coaches the wrong way. He is somewhat difficult to play with because of the unpredictability of his game. But that same unpredictability is a great strength. It should be on his coaches to find ways to take advantage of that strength instead of trying to coach it out of him.

That said, I have accepted the need to move on from him but only because I think he will have had enough of this org. If he won't extend, he needs to be moved.

I think we will be just as much in 'win now' mode next year as we were this year. So the return has to be now players. Futures just won't cut it.

 

[bustamente]

Yeah it's really tough to get those Dmen on the market. You usually have to draft and develop them.

...............and that brings us to Salomonsson who seems like the real deal but when.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I thought Appleton was much better than last year, buuuut

He didn't play on the third line. He played on the second line and scored 36 points. He was third on the Jets in 5v5 ice time/GP. Third.

Scheifele
Connor
Appleton

Ignoring Lambert and Chibrikov (including Toffoli and Monahan) he was 12th on the team in 5v5/60 scoring, behind both Lowry and Nino.

Only Iafallo and Barron scored less of the regulars (and Gus).

I thought they made a good defensive line but this talk of his offensive prowess is meh. He got 2nd line ice time and scored like a third liner. Put Namestnikov there and they probably do better.

Even going onto the xG's, he was a far third of his two main linemates. Lowry and Nino #2 and 3 for regulars(Toffoli short sample is #1) he was 9th, behind Lowry and Nino in GF% too. He was definitely the third wheel of that line imo.

Third line/second line. Yeah, Jets third line got second line TOI. He is still a 2mil RW. Not his fault that line was overused. He is still good value for that contract.

I'm not married to him. If somebody wants to give us a good return, I would take it. I would not simply discard him though. I doubt we could get any better for 2 mil.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah but we still need to keep the cupboard stocked regardless of the Schief/Helle window. As a small market team we need to be cognizant of the post Scheif/Helle years as well. There is no reason to think that Helle will decline all that much at 35. Scheif on the other hand..

I'm not so sure Pesce is going to make it to UFA but I doubt we will be a major player in that either way.
We are going to need a pretty big plus attached to Ehlers to entertain the idea of a top 4 RHD.

I have to disagree with your valuation. Even underselling because we are pressed to move him he is worth more than that. A 1st line winger (which he is) is worth more than a 2nd pair Dman.

Carolina is a little hard to predict. They may still extend Pesce but if he goes to UFA he is going to get paid and Canes may not be willing to afford him.

 

[MardyBum]

Third line/second line. Yeah, Jets third line got second line TOI. He is still a 2mil RW. Not his fault that line was overused. He is still good value for that contract.

I'm not married to him. If somebody wants to give us a good return, I would take it. I would not simply discard him though. I doubt we could get any better for 2 mil.

Cole Perfetti was more useful at 5v5. So was Namestnikov. Was it better for the team for Appleton to play more than both? Nah.

I don't think it got much better by the end :

 

[Daximus]

I think that is still just too easy unless every line he has been on relies too heavily on him. I don't think it is valid to separate his performance that much from his linemates. When the whole line dies he starts trying to compensate and just gets worse. But the fault is on the whole line.

He is our most skilled player and I don't think he has any lack of heart or guts. He has shown plenty of both over his career.

He is a creative player who rubs coaches the wrong way. He is somewhat difficult to play with because of the unpredictability of his game. But that same unpredictability is a great strength. It should be on his coaches to find ways to take advantage of that strength instead of trying to coach it out of him.

That said, I have accepted the need to move on from him but only because I think he will have had enough of this org. If he won't extend, he needs to be moved.

I think we will be just as much in 'win now' mode next year as we were this year. So the return has to be now players. Futures just won't cut it.

The thing that separates Ehlers from other players who play his style like MacK and McDavid is what he does with that unpredictability. He lacks the IQ to make his speed work for him. It's one thing to have speed, it's another to use it to your advantage. He's great at skating circles around the zone. The difference with those other two is they aren't afraid to take a hit to take the puck into the middle of the ice. Ehlers dances until he finds an opening and it leads to more turnovers than it doesn't. In the playoffs it compounds because there is even less time and space to operate like that.

...............and that brings us to Salomonsson who seems like the real deal but when.

Hopefully soon. I just hope we don't rush him for lack of better options.

 

[Daximus]

I have to disagree with your valuation. Even underselling because we are pressed to move him he is worth more than that. A 1st line winger (which he is) is worth more than a 2nd pair Dman.

Carolina is a little hard to predict. They may still extend Pesce but if he goes to UFA he is going to get paid and Canes may not be willing to afford him.

I disagree. Tell me if you are in NHL GM that you would move Owen Power for Ehlers. I'd imagine that would be your last and only move as an NHL GM.

The reality is Ehlers is a pending UFA next year and I think it's unlikely he sticks around long term. He is a rental unless we can convince him to re-sign or convince him to sign somewhere else so I can only evaluate him as such.

 

[Orrrules]

Jets need a HC let's start there. Some Ehlers trade talk for you.

Who says no? 12 Winnipeg Jets trade proposals dissected by NHL sources

It seems as though the Jets still have some work to do, so what do the pros think of your trade proposals?

theathletic.com

 

[DRW204]

I agree about change but:
I get the criticism of Apples, but all he did this year was score 14 G, 36 pts playing on the 3rd line. He was a big part of making that 3rd line more successful offensively. It would be different if he was making 4+ mil, but for a little over 2 mil he is very good value. He works hard every game. Sure he makes mistakes. Who doesn't? Anyway, he is among the few that I would not move unless we got value + for him, considering his contract.

Helle has disappointed in the last 2 PO seasons. But prior to that he went .922 in 18 followed by .913, .904, .931 so he has been more good than bad in the PO. Those 4 PO add up to 35 games vs the 10 games of the last 2 years.

That said, I would trade Helle if we could get a good return for him. Sign Brossoit to be the starter for a couple of years.

But all of this talk of massive change is futile. We are probably going to have Bones back. I won't be surprised to see Monahan signed. I doubt there will be any major trades.

when you put up sv%'s in the 860s and 880s you probably aren't going to making it past the first round. that's why it's small amount of gp.

PO goalie sv% since the 17-18 POs is 0.913, how many PO series has he been at or above that. this is a goalie customarily in the vezina running, he has not shown that performance in recent PO games.

 

[MardyBum]

I disagree. Tell me if you are in NHL GM that you would move Owen Power for Ehlers. I'd imagine that would be your last and only move as an NHL GM.

The reality is Ehlers is a pending UFA next year and I think it's unlikely he sticks around long term. He is a rental unless we can convince him to re-sign or convince him to sign somewhere else so I can only evaluate him as such.

If Chevy can get a contract extension as part of a deal, I think he could return a very good amount from a smart team. Ehlers was a top 10 winger this year(at least at the important stuff, 5v5) The teams with analytics departments will eat that up, and he won't have the gaudy numbers to want a big money extension so the cap hit should be lower.

He's not going to get a Power but with an extension he could get a very good return. He should get a bigger return than miLD did, but Chevy killed that one so hard to compare

 

[gojetsgo]

If Chevy can get a contract extension as part of a deal, I think he could return a very good amount from a smart team. Ehlers was a top 10 winger this year(at least at the important stuff, 5v5) The teams with analytics departments will eat that up, and he won't have the gaudy numbers to want a big money extension so the cap hit should be lower.

He's not going to get a Power but with an extension he could get a very good return. He should get a bigger return than miLD did, but Chevy killed that one so hard to compare

well hopefully we can trade him to a team that relies 100% on public analytics

 

[Dale53130]

I think that is still just too easy unless every line he has been on relies too heavily on him. I don't think it is valid to separate his performance that much from his linemates. When the whole line dies he starts trying to compensate and just gets worse. But the fault is on the whole line.

He is our most skilled player and I don't think he has any lack of heart or guts. He has shown plenty of both over his career.

He is a creative player who rubs coaches the wrong way. He is somewhat difficult to play with because of the unpredictability of his game. But that same unpredictability is a great strength. It should be on his coaches to find ways to take advantage of that strength instead of trying to coach it out of him.

That said, I have accepted the need to move on from him but only because I think he will have had enough of this org. If he won't extend, he needs to be moved.

I think we will be just as much in 'win now' mode next year as we were this year. So the return has to be now players. Futures just won't cut it.

No, he's very easy to game plan against for a best of 7 scenario. He can get away with whatever he's doing in the regular season, but he becomes extremely predictable to shut down (with his line) once the playoffs start. It's easy to let him go off-script, dance around, while you're really getting him to do what you him to do. Burn gas. We have a 37 game sample size of this. Let's the roll the dice again? We're due?

Teams do their homework, and I'm certain the word on Ehlers has been out there for quite some time. This fan base seems to be the last to have figured that out.

Vladimir Guerrero had a cannon of an arm. But his throwing was erratic (to say the least). So, his arm in right didn't matter, and he was better suited as a DH.

Ehlers is more talented than he is skilled. If you can't put your skill set to better use within the concept of "team", then it's no different than Guerrero's erratic arm.

He's more speedy than he is fast. I've never really seen him blow past a defender in all of my years watching him. I see him wind up, carry the puck with very good speed, but where is he going with his speed? It's rarely in tighter spaces. He's not a guy who explodes from the jump, separating himself from a pack, going from 0-to-60.

How is he creative? His shot selection, often works against his own team. He kills too many plays, spraying shots from bad angles, where it often ends up directly in the goalie's chest. I get the concept to shoot whenever you can, get as many shots on net as possible, fine, but there's the flip side, that you're keeping the other goalie engaged; with poor shot selection. Add to this, and this is important, how many times when it's clear to everyone watching that he absolutely needs to take the shot, and then decides to pass it?

And his passing can be as erratic as his shot selection.

It says a lot about a players heart when he's doing a line change (Game 4) with 20 seconds left, with the puck being carried in the wrong direction, heading towards an empty net.