Wings Legace believes the season is off

[swflyers8*]

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the majority of fans (especially American fans) will not pay to watch replacement players.

Well, contrary to your opinion, some fans will watch the replacement hockey. Not all of the fans are completely clueless about the game of hockey. They may follow the college players, the AHL, the ECHL and all the other various hockey leagues out there. I would love to go see Jeff Carter, RJ Umberger, Antero Niitymaki and other Flyers prospects in Flyers uniform right now. That's we've been wanting for years.
You don't know what everyone might or might not do. How do you know fans of a certain team wouldn't be all for seeing their prospects finally get their shot?

Furthermore, I have to agree that when the "replacement" players started playing, other players would take off their billboard style jerseys in Europe and come home to play for the Cup in the NHL. Most of the guys are young guys and not rich and clueless like the Prongers, Guerins, McCabes and even the Roenicks of the NHL. They want to play. They know that they won't have a long career. I know a lot of kids can't want to play in the NHL and all this lockout did was delay them for yet another year. Some may have the wacky dream of playing for their team, finally wearing the sweater of (fill in any team here) out on the ice.

There are how many players over in Europe? Around 290 some or whatever. What are the other 400 some odd players doing? Some may be getting antsy right about now. You let the replacement players in and soon they will come back. If they don't, they won't get a paycheck at all. Something needs to happen in order to get something done, it's as simple as that.

 

[SENSible1*]

Those that don't know anyone but Gretzky and Lemieux, don't watch hockey as is.

Perhaps you should let BRG give you the red pill so you'll be able to fully understand how pretty damn stupid the public is, on a whole.

The average fan, Canadian or American, has great difficulty discerning the difference in quality as long as the game has speed and is competitive. Don't believe me, just listen to any post-game call in show and count the number of worthwhile callers.

I doubt that reduced prices will change that much. Here's a question for everyone who say replacement players will work: Why isn't the AHL, OHL, etc. reporting big gains in attendance with with no NHL???

You are underestimating the degree of support for the owners and desire to teach the union a lesson. Fans are very tribal and trained to defend their team against all competion. In this case, the players are seen as attacking the team the fans love, so the majority of fans will support the owners by buying tickets, especially if it becomes affordable to bring your family to the game again.

You are also comparing apples and oranges. There is no established brand loyalty with the other hockey teams for NHL fans, no NHL venues, no television broadcasts and not nearly the same marketing machine. The level of play would undoubtably be higher than the AHL and would rise as more and more NHLPA members returned.

 

[Old Hickory]

The majority of American NHL fans won't know the difference between replacements and current NHLers. Heck most of em only know two hockey players anyways - Gretzky and Lemiuex.

I hope that was a joke.

 

[ACC1224]

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the majority of fans (especially American fans) will not pay to watch replacement players.

This may be true but as a season ticket holder I know I won't have a choice. If I want to keep my seats I'll have to pay for whatever product they put on the ice which of course I will do.

 

[shadoz19]

You are underestimating the degree of support for the owners and desire to teach the union a lesson. Fans are very tribal and trained to defend their team against all competion. In this case, the players are seen as attacking the team the fans love, so the majority of fans will support the owners by buying tickets, especially if it becomes affordable to bring your family to the game again.

You are also comparing apples and oranges. There is no established brand loyalty with the other hockey teams for NHL fans, no NHL venues, no television broadcasts and not nearly the same marketing machine. The level of play would undoubtably be higher than the AHL and would rise as more and more NHLPA members returned.

I think your overestimating the interest of American fans in the sport of hockey. Most could care less right now. While some NHLers would join the replacement players, those that joined would be mostly fringe players. The star players wouldn't join and the NHL would be hard pressed to pick up fans in the American markets.

 

[SENSible1*]

I think your overestimating the interest of American fans in the sport of hockey. Most could care less right now. While some NHLers would join the replacement players, those that joined would be mostly fringe players. The star players wouldn't join and the NHL would be hard pressed to pick up fans in the American markets.

You are thinking short-term and the NHL is taking a longer view.

The NHL is willing to take some losses to get a favourable deal that ensures they can control their labour costs.

They aren't looking to "pick up fans" by using replacement players, merely bidding their time until the union caves.

 

[shakes]

Perhaps you should let BRG give you the red pill so you'll be able to fully understand how pretty damn stupid the public is, on a whole.

The average fan, Canadian or American, has great difficulty discerning the difference in quality as long as the game has speed and is competitive. Don't believe me, just listen to any post-game call in show and count the number of worthwhile callers.




You are underestimating the degree of support for the owners and desire to teach the union a lesson. Fans are very tribal and trained to defend their team against all competion. In this case, the players are seen as attacking the team the fans love, so the majority of fans will support the owners by buying tickets, especially if it becomes affordable to bring your family to the game again.

You are also comparing apples and oranges. There is no established brand loyalty with the other hockey teams for NHL fans, no NHL venues, no television broadcasts and not nearly the same marketing machine. The level of play would undoubtably be higher than the AHL and would rise as more and more NHLPA members returned.

So your entire argument is based on how stupid the general public is?

 

[Blindside9711]

Thanks for the update Manny. I'm pretty sure we all know there isn't going to be a season this year anyways... not until someone takes out Gary ass-muncher.

 

[hockeytown9321]

The NFL used replacement players for part of the 1987 season. Average attendance dropped about 6,000 per game from the year prior, and that includes the games when the real players came back. Attendance was back up to 1986 levels in 1988. I can't find the numbers for replacements vs. regualrs, but I think a safe assumption is that attendance was down alot more than 6,000 per game when replacements were used and that the decreased attendance was a result of the replacement players.

The 1987 season also saw the lowest average attendance for the NFL since 1968.

Some NFL players also crossed the line and became replacement players.

So in conclusion, I think its entirely fair to say that the NFL, being more popular in 1987 than the NHL is now, that if the NHL uses replacement players, attendance will drop drastically.

If anybody can find average NFL attendance for the replacement player era, I'd appreciate it.

 

[DuklaNation]

My personal opinion is that the entertainment value of replacement players (i.e. AHL guys) vs the NHLPA is closer than you think. Obviously the NHL players are more talented. However, the quality of the NHL game has deteriorated so much over the past 12 years due to various reasons. I think a scab league would be just as entertaining (better game with less talent).

 

[hockeytown9321]

They aren't looking to "pick up fans" by using replacement players, merely bidding their time until the union caves.

Thats a helluva gamble, no? I sure hope someone shows Bettman the NFL's attendace from 1987 or MLB's from 1995-98.

I think the damage that Bettman is doing to league to get a cap is not worth it, and a cap won't even begin to solve their problmes when they come back.

 

[tantalum]

Thats a helluva gamble, no? I sure hope someone shows Bettman the NFL's attendace from 1987 or MLB's from 1995-98.

I think the damage that Bettman is doing to league to get a cap is not worth it, and a cap won't even begin to solve their problmes when they come back.

But what's the attendance now in those sports? That's the key.

 

[hockeytown9321]

But what's the attendance now in those sports? That's the key.

Football's attendace came back in 1988 becuase its football. The point is it was down a ton in 1987 even though it was the NFL. Think about what will happen to hockey.

Baseball's attendance came back in 1998 becuase the McGwire vs. Sosa homerun chase. Does hockey have anything that can generate that much casual fan interest? I don't think so.

 

[tantalum]

Football's attendace came back in 1988 becuase its football. The point is it was down a ton in 1987 even though it was the NFL. Think about what will happen to hockey.

Baseball's attendance came back in 1998 becuase the McGwire vs. Sosa homerun chase. Does hockey have anything that can generate that much casual fan interest? I don't think so.

A little excitement is all that's needed to bring fans back. Simple as that. No one predicted McGwire vs. Sosa but it happened and generated that excitement (taht and new fans were grown and other fans got over the grudge). Over the long haul the fans will come back as the NBA, NFL and MLB have shown.

 

[hockeytown9321]

A little excitement is all that's needed to bring fans back. Simple as that. No one predicted McGwire vs. Sosa but it happened and generated that excitement (taht and new fans were grown and other fans got over the grudge). Over the long haul the fans will come back as the NBA, NFL and MLB have shown.

To a degree they will come back, but hockey is not even a third as popular as any of those sports in the US. The question I was answering was would people come see replacement players. If you look at the numbers from the one tme it was tried in a major sport, (and the most popular one at that) you have to infer that attendance will be down greatly if the NHL uses them.

Give me a realisitc scernario where hockey could generate casual interest like McGwire and Sosa. Sure no one predicted it, but everyone knew a player chasing Maris was going to happen and be a big deal. There's nothing like that in hockey, at least to the US fan. The closest would probably have been Gretzky chasing Howe's numbers, and I don't recall a huge boom the NHL then.

 

[Marconius]

Outside of the big NHL markets in the US, most people don't pay to see the NHL as it is. So instead of your local NHL club having 1-2 stars, it'll have 0. Where's the draw for the fans of Tampa, Carolina, Columbus to watch guys like Nash, Cole, or St. Louis replaced by no-names?

In Detroit, I'd be shocked if they got the JLA half full to watch replacement players, there are lots of other teams people can go see around here; the Mechanics in Fraser, Wayne State plays in Plymouth, U of M and MSU play at the JLA a few times a year, and the GLI is coming up next month. That's probably all in a 30 mile radius. Ann Arbor and East Lansing aren't that far away, as is GR, though I wouldn't drive to any of those cities, either they are on TV or I just don't follow the CCHA much.

Don't you think that after half a season that new stars will be created? Sure the offensive talent won't be as good, but neither will the defence or goaltending. In fact, the extra drive & determination that the replacement players will bring might even make up for some talent shortfallings. Afterall, who would you rather watch, a team of Daigles or a team of Marchants?

 

[hockeytown9321]

Don't you think that after half a season that new stars will be created? Sure the offensive talent won't be as good, but neither will the defence or goaltending. In fact, the extra drive & determination that the replacement players will bring might even make up for some talent shortfallings. Afterall, who would you rather watch, a team of Daigles or a team of Marchants?

How would new stars be created in half a year? The NHL has had approximatley zero players develop into supertars the last 10 years. If they can't do it with superstar level players, how can they do it with replacement players? Would a cap and replacement players automatically make Bettman a marketing genius?

Michael Jordan is probably the most famous athlete of all time, but he didn't acheive that just becuase of his basketball ability. He ahd a great marketing machine in the NBA and Nike behind him. The NHL nor Gary Bettman have never shown a tenth of that ability to market their players.

 

[Larry Melnyk]

Just want to add my worthless two cents to part of this..First let me say that I have (had) been a diehard hockey fan since the late 60's and am an American that has lived all over the country (US) and travels quite a bit...There are alot of generalizations that follow...By no means do these generalizations reflect how the small # of American die-hards feel but more how I see the pulse of the American sports fans. First off, Hockey is a great game but, unfortuantely, has been run to both financial and artistic ruin by the way it has been operated and governed by Bettman and the owners..It is their fault but No doubt It needs to be fixed by BOTH parties working together..Which they refuse to do..Which will utterly destroy the PRO game in the US if it goes on too long(IMO)...Without the sides working together it comes down to the blame game and, without taking sides, this is where i find things really interesting and misjudged...

Now, I don't know where every poster is from but from my deductions what I find very interesting is the different viewpoints of American and Canadian fans...From what I can tell, the Canadian fans are squarely/mostly behind the owners, just want the game they love to be played again by the BEST players, and have trouble seeing why the players won't give in more when they already have the Life of Reily..However, from everything I can tell and everybody I have talked to or heard from, this is not the case in the US..We have no problem seeing entertainers/athletes getting as much as they can get, especially from billionaires, and more power to them (until they become useless underachieving garbage on our favorite team)....However, even backers of the players realize that the that players have to give in more, maybe alot more, but they aren't the only ones.. It is not their job to acquiesce to everything the owners (especially owners who can't be trusted) want for the love of the game...

Of course, alot of this comes down to the fact that Hockey is not America's game and the American fan has a different viewpoint.....heck, it probably isn't in the top 5...Football (College and Pro), baseball, basketball (COllege and pro), auto-racing, soccer, poker, lawn jarts, and tiddlywinks are all more popular..Seriously, nobody (you know what I mean) is missing the game of hockey in the US, nobody writes or talks about it and nary a soul gives a hoot whether it comes back or not...Especially, when there are so many other options to choose from....Yes, maybe football and baseball recovered from work stoppages and replacement players, but these games are wildly popular in the States and played by everybody and have HUGE television contracts...Not so with hockey...From everything I've read here, I have no doubt that Canadian fans would indeed watch replacement players to get their fix on the game they were brought up with and love so dearly...OTOH, I truly think a work stoppage of more then a year followed by replacement players will be the death of the NHL in the US...IMO, American fans will turn their noses to the thought of watching c-list players playing the marginalized game of hockey when there are so many other options competing for their time and money...Heck, this even failed with football and an XFL with a national TV deal....Second-rate hockey players will not fly and will only drag the game down further to the point where the AMERICAN public sports fan couldn't give a flying fudge at a rolling doughnut if and when the big boys come back...Maybe I'm wrong as I so often am....I truly hope it does not go this far because I fear the worst because of the importance of the American markets....

 

[hockeytown9321]

Just want to add my worthless two cents to part of this..First let me say that I have (had) been a diehard hockey fan since the late 60's and am an American that has lived all over the country (US) and travels quite a bit...There are alot of generalizations that follow...By no means do these generalizations reflect how the small # of American die-hards feel but more how I see the pulse of the American sports fans. First off, Hockey is a great game but, unfortuantely, has been run to both financial and artistic ruin by the way it has been operated and governed by Bettman and the owners..It is their fault but No doubt It needs to be fixed by BOTH parties working together..Which they refuse to do..Which will utterly destroy the PRO game in the US if it goes on too long(IMO)...Without the sides working together it comes down to the blame game and, without taking sides, this is where i find things really interesting and misjudged...

Now, I don't know where every poster is from but from my deductions what I find very interesting is the different viewpoints of American and Canadian fans...From what I can tell, the Canadian fans are squarely/mostly behind the owners, just want the game they love to be played again by the BEST players, and have trouble seeing why the players won't give in more when they already have the Life of Reily..However, from everything I can tell and everybody I have talked to or heard from, this is not the case in the US..We have no problem seeing entertainers/athletes getting as much as they can get, especially from billionaires, and more power to them (until they become useless underachieving garbage on our favorite team)....However, even backers of the players realize that the that players have to give in more, maybe alot more, but they aren't the only ones.. It is not their job to acquiesce to everything the owners (especially owners who can't be trusted) want for the love of the game...

Of course, alot of this comes down to the fact that Hockey is not America's game and the American fan has a different viewpoint.....heck, it probably isn't in the top 5...Football (College and Pro), baseball, basketball (COllege and pro), auto-racing, soccer, poker, lawn jarts, and tiddlywinks are all more popular..Seriously, nobody (you know what I mean) is missing the game of hockey in the US, nobody writes or talks about it and nary a soul gives a hoot whether it comes back or not...Especially, when there are so many other options to choose from....Yes, maybe football and baseball recovered from work stoppages and replacement players, but these games are wildly popular in the States and played by everybody and have HUGE television contracts...Not so with hockey...From everything I've read here, I have no doubt that Canadian fans would indeed watch replacement players to get their fix on the game they were brought up with and love so dearly...OTOH, I truly think a work stoppage of more then a year followed by replacement players will be the death of the NHL in the US...IMO, American fans will turn their noses to the thought of watching c-list players playing the marginalized game of hockey when there are so many other options competing for their time and money...Heck, this even failed with football and an XFL with a national TV deal....Second-rate hockey players will not fly and will only drag the game down further to the point where the AMERICAN public sports fan couldn't give a flying fudge at a rolling doughnut if and when the big boys come back...Maybe I'm wrong as I so often am....I truly hope it does not go this far because I fear the worst because of the importance of the American markets....

I couldn't, and can't, say it any better than that.
I think Canadians don't understand how little the US cares about hockey, or understand just how bad off the league will be in after a season away and replacement players.

Great example on the XFL too. People won't even watch the most popular sport in America if the product is second rate.

 

[Digger12]

Just want to add my worthless two cents to part of this..First let me say that I have (had) been a diehard hockey fan since the late 60's and am an American that has lived all over the country (US) and travels quite a bit...There are alot of generalizations that follow...By no means do these generalizations reflect how the small # of American die-hards feel but more how I see the pulse of the American sports fans. First off, Hockey is a great game but, unfortuantely, has been run to both financial and artistic ruin by the way it has been operated and governed by Bettman and the owners..It is their fault but No doubt It needs to be fixed by BOTH parties working together..Which they refuse to do..Which will utterly destroy the PRO game in the US if it goes on too long(IMO)...Without the sides working together it comes down to the blame game and, without taking sides, this is where i find things really interesting and misjudged...

Now, I don't know where every poster is from but from my deductions what I find very interesting is the different viewpoints of American and Canadian fans...From what I can tell, the Canadian fans are squarely/mostly behind the owners, just want the game they love to be played again by the BEST players, and have trouble seeing why the players won't give in more when they already have the Life of Reily..However, from everything I can tell and everybody I have talked to or heard from, this is not the case in the US..We have no problem seeing entertainers/athletes getting as much as they can get, especially from billionaires, and more power to them (until they become useless underachieving garbage on our favorite team)....However, even backers of the players realize that the that players have to give in more, maybe alot more, but they aren't the only ones.. It is not their job to acquiesce to everything the owners (especially owners who can't be trusted) want for the love of the game...

Of course, alot of this comes down to the fact that Hockey is not America's game and the American fan has a different viewpoint.....heck, it probably isn't in the top 5...Football (College and Pro), baseball, basketball (COllege and pro), auto-racing, soccer, poker, lawn jarts, and tiddlywinks are all more popular..Seriously, nobody (you know what I mean) is missing the game of hockey in the US, nobody writes or talks about it and nary a soul gives a hoot whether it comes back or not...Especially, when there are so many other options to choose from....Yes, maybe football and baseball recovered from work stoppages and replacement players, but these games are wildly popular in the States and played by everybody and have HUGE television contracts...Not so with hockey...From everything I've read here, I have no doubt that Canadian fans would indeed watch replacement players to get their fix on the game they were brought up with and love so dearly...OTOH, I truly think a work stoppage of more then a year followed by replacement players will be the death of the NHL in the US...IMO, American fans will turn their noses to the thought of watching c-list players playing the marginalized game of hockey when there are so many other options competing for their time and money...Heck, this even failed with football and an XFL with a national TV deal....Second-rate hockey players will not fly and will only drag the game down further to the point where the AMERICAN public sports fan couldn't give a flying fudge at a rolling doughnut if and when the big boys come back...Maybe I'm wrong as I so often am....I truly hope it does not go this far because I fear the worst because of the importance of the American markets....

Very well said, but I would be careful about throwing all Canadian hockey fans in the same pro-owner liferaft.

At least by my experience on this business of hockey board, the most vocal hawkish/anti-Bettman/anti-owner/anti-small market sentiments aren't from the American markets, they're from Canadian fans of Canadian teams (particularly the Sens and Canucks) that have Stanley cup aspirations. Quite interesting actually.

 

[me2]

The majority of American NHL fans won't know the difference between replacements and current NHLers. Heck most of em only know two hockey players anyways - Gretzky and Lemiuex.

Message to owners: reduce ticket prices (and beer prices ) and bring on the replacements - fans will come out and current NHLers will cross. The Prongers, Guerins and Marchants of the world can stay on the sideline for all I care.

Nobody is going to pay to watch AHLers clutch, grab and trap. What they lose in star power they'll have to compensate for in other ways. If the do go the replacement route expect rule and attitude changes on the ice. The trap will be banned for a start, maybe not explicitly but in a wink-wink nudge-nudge kind of way. Teams will be playing up tempo entertaining styles to keep the fans interested. The will have to wow the fans will playing style, the kind of hockey most fans wish the NHL would play.

 

[me2]

Thats a helluva gamble, no? I sure hope someone shows Bettman the NFL's attendace from 1987 or MLB's from 1995-98.

I think the damage that Bettman is doing to league to get a cap is not worth it, and a cap won't even begin to solve their problmes when they come back.

Why not just look at the hockey attendances before and after the last lockout/strike. To me that is more representative of the NHL than what happens in MLB or NFL. Hockey seems to have recovered from that.

 

[PecaFan]

I think folks seriously underestimate the quality of hockey that would be played by replacement players. First of all, the modern game is crap. There's only a couple stars on each team, the rest are interchangeable crap. Look at Europe right now, are the NHL'ers blowing the rest of the players out of the league? Hardly. With modern coaching and defensive systems, you'd hardly notice a difference at all.

Secondly, there are *tons* of great players not currently in the NHL. Guys in Europe, minor leaguers who've never been able to break through roster logjams, guys who've been deemed too small, etc.

I know it won't happen, but I'd love to see it.

 

[thinkwild]

I truly think a work stoppage of more then a year followed by replacement players will be the death of the NHL in the US

It is said that this fight is as much owners against owners, as it is owners against players. Although admittedly the former has been well supressed. If the stoppage is going to lead to the death of some American teams, the owners must know that. Perhaps that in fact is the leverage they are using against each other as much as against the players. Maybe they just cant say contraction, they just set in motion the process to achieve it.

Perhaps some of the money being thrown around in Europe, and the fan interest being created, this is the real frontier they are after. Expansion is all they know. Some owners already have hockey team interests over there. If they can start by allowing 6 franchises that fold after running out of patience with Gary's lockout, and then have a 6 team European Super league take their places, along with a 6 team Canadian leauge, perhaps this is where they are heading.

Hockey is really popular in Europe. There are a lot of fans there that love the game and the NHL players. Its not popular in much of America. Let the water flow.

 

[thinkwild]

Very well said, but I would be careful about throwing all Canadian hockey fans in the same pro-owner liferaft.

At least by my experience on this business of hockey board, the most vocal hawkish/anti-Bettman/anti-owner/anti-small market sentiments aren't from the American markets, they're from Canadian fans of Canadian teams (particularly the Sens and Canucks) that have Stanley cup aspirations. Quite interesting actually.

Anti small market? Oh you must mean because of Tom saying let them fold if they cant compete in the big leagues. I think you misunderstand. For me anyway, the brilliantly conceived CBA that Bettman and Goodenow crafted last time was the saviour of small markets, if they could learn to think long term, instead of 30 minute sitcom attention span.

The reason I so support the philsophical principle behind the last CBA was because of how it favoured small markets ability to develop a championship hockey team the right way. The long way. The only way.

Perhaps their is a self interest of Sens and Canucks fans here. We see that we have used the CBA properly, and now we have an opportunity to continue using it to become the next Colorado. There is no reason either of our teams couldnt do that. We may never do it. But we can the possibilty exists. After following the plan for 10 years, you tank the rug out from under us at the last minute. Its not fair. Edmonton can just as easily do it. They made more money than Ottawa last year.

Go ahead, save the owners $200mil, but dont radically change the philisophical underpinnings of the current strategic brilliance of a CBA that Bettman and Goodenow created last time.