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Lynn Belvedere said:A guy who takes 4 years to develop is a Joe Sakic or a Mark Messier...
Hey, Sakic scored 102 points and finished tenth in league scoring in his second year...
Just sayin'. Not really adding anything important.
Lynn Belvedere said:A guy who takes 4 years to develop is a Joe Sakic or a Mark Messier...
Hammer Time said:Hey, Sakic scored 102 points and finished tenth in league scoring in his second year...
Brule said:Regardless of what people call players, be it "the next one" or "best prospect in the last 20 years", 20 games isn't enough. Give him 2-3 seasons before you make any final decisions whether he is indeed "The next Gretzky" or not.
Lynn Belvedere said:20 games might be short but, like you said, we better see some flashes of brilliance in those first 20 games if he's supposed to be the next Gretzky.
2-3 years is way too long IMO. If you are that "once every 20 years" type phenom, you should be able to rack up big numbers right from the get go. Waiting 2-3 years on a great prospect is perfectly fine, and maybe that's all that Crosby is... a great prospect.
But that's not what he's been sold as. Crosby developing into just another Peter Forsberg isn't going to "save the NHL". Hell, that's not enough to save the Penguins. Gretzky absolutely dominated. Nobody was even close to him when he was scoring 200+ points. He had more assists than any other player had points. Now that is domination.
You simply can't start as a ho-hum player and reach those levels. It would be nice if you could, but you can't. You have to start right at the top or very near the top, so that when you enter your prime, you are completely dominant.
you're missing the point though. NOBODY expects those types of numbers, even those who say he's the next gretzky. what people mean is they expect similar relative domination. if the second place scorer has 100 pts, sid would have to score 150 pts and we would consider that gretz/mario level. no one should expect that he will do it, but that's what people mean. i don't even think stockwizard believes he'll score 90 goals and 200 pts.KSGuy2325 said:However, are we all supposed to expect him to break that 215 points-a-season record held by Gretzky? Or score 92 goals in a season? Or have well over 2000 points by the end of his career (can't remember the real stat on that one).
While I think Crosby will be the "Next One" so to speak, I think it will be different than Wayne Gretzky. First of all, the NHL itself is different than it was when Gretz broke in, or Mario. I don't think that the new rule changes will make THAT much of an offensive difference.
I think in time (a season or 2) we'll see Sid produce numbers that will have us calling him the "Gretzky of this hockey generation". I don't see him netting 215 points a season, or getting 92 goals in a season. The goalies are too good now, and the defensemen are too physical (I am NOT taking ANYTHING away from the goalies/defensemen of the past, that was a different time, a different era).
Just my two cents.
Lynn Belvedere said:Crosby isn't being hyped as a solid NHL player. He's not being hyped as a good player. Hell, he's not even being hyped as a great player. He is being hyped as "The Next One". A Gretzky or a Lemieux. By those standards, shouldn't we know very early on if this kid really has what the all-time greats had?
Both Gretzky and Lemieux tore it up their first seasons. From the first times they stepped on NHL ice, you could tell that both were special. Gretzky tied for #1 in the scoring race his rookie year and Lemiuex finished top 10. If Crosby doesn't reach those standards, should we relegate him to future star or future superstar instead of "Next One" status?
true, just like lemieux's, jagr's, francis's, and kovalev's best years weren't.GameFace247SON said:In response to the topic introduced by the thread, I would say that by Game 20 you could know that he is "The Next Next One," but if he underperforms to that point, you can't determine his future. He is a Penguin, after all, and his best years will more than likely not be in that jersey. Just sayin.
Actually Lemieux was 19 his first year in the NHL(almost a full year older thanLynn Belvedere said:The fact is that Gretzky and Lemiuex tore up the league as 18 year olds. If a players is deemed "The Next One", why shouldn't he have the stuff to do the same? If he doesn't have the stuff, he ain't "The Next One". He is mearly a good to great NHL prospect. Don't sell me gold and tell me its platinum.
Lynn Belvedere said:Did you not notice Gretzky tied for 1st in the scoring race his rookie year? Did you not notice Lemieux finished with over a 100 points and was top 10 in scoring his rookie year? If Crosby is that breed of player (remember, we are not talking about the Sakic, Messier, Forsberg level, we are talking about the elite of the elite... the household name, the guy even non-hockey fans talk about) why should Crosby be held to a different standard?
Lynn Belvedere said:Did you not notice Gretzky tied for 1st in the scoring race his rookie year? Did you not notice Lemieux finished with over a 100 points and was top 10 in scoring his rookie year? If Crosby is that breed of player (remember, we are not talking about the Sakic, Messier, Forsberg level, we are talking about the elite of the elite... the household name, the guy even non-hockey fans talk about) why should Crosby be held to a different standard?
The fact is that Gretzky and Lemiuex tore up the league as 18 year olds. If a players is deemed "The Next One", why shouldn't he have the stuff to do the same? If he doesn't have the stuff, he ain't "The Next One". He is mearly a good to great NHL prospect. Don't sell me gold and tell me its platinum.
GnomE said:KSGuy, so what type of numbers do you expect him to produce if he fulfils the promise of being "the next one"? If the scoring increases but not by much. If it would be back to the way it was in the early 90s?
I concur, I'd rather the players were judged more in relation to their peers and less to records from different era's, hell, Gretzky never broke Joe Malone's GPG record, is he just another scrub?Matt MacInnis said:Sidney Crosby will never be the "Next One" simply because of the nature of such a lofty title. Expectations have been set so high for this kid that nobody could conceivably ever reach them. Everybody expects this kid to come in and be the best player in the league in his first year, and then go on to challenge all sorts of records set in an entirely different era of the sport.
Sidney Crosby could score 50 goals this year and there will still be people saying he didn't live up to expectations. No matter what he does he's going to be criticized.
Baron Von Shark said:DarkMetamorphisis made a very good point: regardless of how much the league has changed, we are talking about relative domination. Thus, if the #1-10 top scorers in the league range from 80-110 points, Crosby would be expected to fall in that range as well (for those that feel he is truly the "next one").
Vlad The Impaler said:Hello Lynn.
Forgetting for a minute that the "next one" talk is pure bull**** IMO, I'll play.
The reason it is improbable (not impossible) another 18 year old will ever have that kind of impact is because the league has changed a great deal.
It's a coach-heavy league, where players are expected to be complete and well-rounded. This is why on average, we are seeing less dominant elite 18 years old in general, regardless if they are Gretz-level or Yzerman-level or whatever.
It's unlikely (again, not impossible) a prospect similar to Roenick would give an impressive early output, JR-style. And so on.
This doesn't change the great accomplishments of past players. It's just a different league. The junior coaches are knocking on CHL players sometimes more heavily than the NHL did back in the days as far as discipline, defense, etc.
It's also a physically more demanding game with bigger, faster player. Your physical immaturity usually shows once you jump.
Finally, the gap in contribution between stars and role players has lesened. Which means even the "next Gretzky" (whatever that means) might look less spectacular today. It's a four-line game. Checkers still give you a Bob Gainey output (40 points) but your first liners give you less. Your shifts are short, your mistakes are glaring and opposing coaches capitalize on them. The hits are heavy and the players big and fast.
Now, much of this written with the modern NHL in mind. There is talk they want a new NHL but I don't know how successful this will be. This could change some of what I have written over time.
The bottom line is, you are comparing two vastly different eras of hockey. The 18 years old of today are not facing the same game conditions.
Lynn Belvedere said:Will we Know By Game 20 If Sidney Crosby Really Is "The Next One"?
colonel_korn said:Definitely.
I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that if Crosby has 30 points or more by the 20th game of the season, he can indeed be annointed "The Next One" and will likely break Gretzky's scoring records at some point in his career.
29 points or fewer and I have no doubt that he'll be remembered along with Alexander Daigle as one of the greatest busts in NHL draft history.