achtungbaby
Registered User
- Oct 31, 2006
- 4,792
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Exactly. It's a little known fact that the Leafs were busy helping to bring freedom to the good people of Iraq during that time honey.Speculation: Will the Leafs make the playoffs?
- Thread starter WeWantACup
- Start date
Exactly. It's a little known fact that the Leafs were busy helping to bring freedom to the good people of Iraq during that time honey.
The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Lol, you win. I can't top that one. May steal it though.
ungentrified
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2013
- 302
- 0
This is a total jynx thread...the same thing was posted last season so that we could all watch our chances sink like a snitch in concrete shoes. Even if the site said the Leafs had a 110% chance of making the playoffs it would still somehow ruin their chances.
Mess
Global Moderator
Philly and NYR are two teams currently out of a playoff position that Leafs should fear standing in their way to potential playoff spot.
Both teams are currently underperforming but have the talent to make strides quickly up the standings.
nsleaf
Registered User
- Oct 21, 2009
- 4,074
- 1,454
achtungbaby
Registered User
- Oct 31, 2006
- 4,792
- 25
Unless Ovi suddenly becomes half the player he used to be, I don't think we need to worry about Washington this year. Of course now that I said that they'll go on a 10-0-2 tear.
yes please, down with this jinx thread!
I vote we're not even allowed to write the word P*****fs until we make it.
paradeofwolves
Registered User
achtungbaby
Registered User
- Oct 31, 2006
- 4,792
- 25
I kid you not,, in a time long past there once exited such a thing as playoff hockey in Toronto.
Today it only appears in myths and legends of rumours of glories past, of what once was, but someday prosperity will return to Leaf Nation.
MLSE new ownership took a giant step forward in the direction they're taking the team. Hopefully they will be rewarded as will Leaf Nation shortly for those actions. So far things are looking promising, and hopefully sooner rather than later Leaf Nation fans will once again experience the joy of the playoffs in TO..
Preach it Mess, preach it!
mix1home
Registered User
You mean _refs_ showed that? How incompetence of 4 guys shows that Leafs are not playoff team?
Remember. Game was tied 2-2 and Leafs finally started to have some sustained pressure in Mtl zone. And then refs came to the rescue... not that they did everything right up to that point.
PS. However, we will have hard time making playoffs with so many teams in financial disarray. It's simply not in the league cards to allow Leafs have extra income, while leaving some struggling team with extra 20M-40M loss.
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TheKiller93
Registered User
- Dec 20, 2007
- 588
- 0
Can we please delete this jinx thread? honestly! This board did the exact same thing last year and I remember distinctly the sinking feeling I got every time I logged on to HF as I watched the chances move from "sure thing" to dwindling and dwindling and dwindling to remote chance, to snowballs chance, to dead in the water.
Regardless of whether you believe in superstition, please delete this for the sake of us who can't help it!
Regardless of whether you believe in superstition, please delete this for the sake of us who can't help it!
Please close this thread.
Jinx or not, its too early to talk about playoffs anyways.
Please close it.
Jinx or not, its too early to talk about playoffs anyways.
Please close it.
mix1home
Registered User
If you, guys, want this thread to die then stop posting in it.
PS. Let's make this one last post and never bump it up.
PS. Let's make this one last post and never bump it up.
some not so promising math...
Just doing some averages on away stats and the leafs current record... if the leafs don't get better at home then there isn't a very good chance that they'll make the playoffs!
basically based on the win-loss averages that they have now, i would put them on pace to have the following (ish) home/away records
home - 11-13-0 ( 4/9 = 0.444 x 24 = 10.667 or apprx 11)
away - 17-7-0 (9/13 = 0.629 x 24 = 16.615 or apprx 17)
*as you can see i even rounded up on both giving them the benefit of the doubt / statistical advantage there!
that combines for an 'anticipated record' of 28-20-0 ... or 56 points
now, assuming that around 91 points in a full season is the standard rough "make or break" line for 8th place most years - this works out to apprx 1.123456 points per game - and right now they are on pace (using my 'anticipated record') to get 1.1667 points per game in the standings and this would likely be enough to get them into those illusive playoffs!
HOWEVER..... *dun dun dunnnnn*
Don't forget I rounded up on that record and it could be as low as 26-22-0 based on those calculations which would only be 1.083 points per game (not enough based on the average low to make the playoffs)
To add to this ... I personally do not think it would be possible to continue that road pace ... especially closer to playoff time so, simply put ... the leafs HAVE to be better at home if we are going to see our leafs in the playoffs this year!
PS ... We could have just taken the simpler route ... and just do their points per game right now (1.1818) and say that based on that versus the normal low points per game, that their record is currently good enough to get in, but the fact they've played more road than home games and have a worse record at home (where their majority of remaining games are) would make this number flawed... and aside from that, again i don't think that their away record is sustainable.
PPS ... Sorry to be a negative nancy after a big win !
Just doing some averages on away stats and the leafs current record... if the leafs don't get better at home then there isn't a very good chance that they'll make the playoffs!
basically based on the win-loss averages that they have now, i would put them on pace to have the following (ish) home/away records
home - 11-13-0 ( 4/9 = 0.444 x 24 = 10.667 or apprx 11)
away - 17-7-0 (9/13 = 0.629 x 24 = 16.615 or apprx 17)
*as you can see i even rounded up on both giving them the benefit of the doubt / statistical advantage there!
that combines for an 'anticipated record' of 28-20-0 ... or 56 points
now, assuming that around 91 points in a full season is the standard rough "make or break" line for 8th place most years - this works out to apprx 1.123456 points per game - and right now they are on pace (using my 'anticipated record') to get 1.1667 points per game in the standings and this would likely be enough to get them into those illusive playoffs!
HOWEVER..... *dun dun dunnnnn*
Don't forget I rounded up on that record and it could be as low as 26-22-0 based on those calculations which would only be 1.083 points per game (not enough based on the average low to make the playoffs)
To add to this ... I personally do not think it would be possible to continue that road pace ... especially closer to playoff time so, simply put ... the leafs HAVE to be better at home if we are going to see our leafs in the playoffs this year!
PS ... We could have just taken the simpler route ... and just do their points per game right now (1.1818) and say that based on that versus the normal low points per game, that their record is currently good enough to get in, but the fact they've played more road than home games and have a worse record at home (where their majority of remaining games are) would make this number flawed... and aside from that, again i don't think that their away record is sustainable.
PPS ... Sorry to be a negative nancy after a big win !
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BarneyStinson
Registered User
anderson3133
Registered User
There is a fundamental flaw in your theory, which is that all games are now within conference (skewing the totals needed to make the playoffs). You would have to weight East vs. East and West vs. West games from last season to get a truer number for your estimation on what could be required for us to make the playoffs this season.
Mess
Global Moderator
I think 56 points in 48 games (+8 games over .500) would get a team into the playoffs.
didn't think of this
.. good point! i know generally east has a losing record to west (or at least we do
) so i wonder how much that would change this!
paulster2626
Registered User
- Oct 11, 2008
- 2,428
- 0
But this site http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Toronto.html says that if they finish with 56 points they have a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs. In fact even with 54 points there's still a 90% chance. I'll take those odds!
