Why would Gretzky still dominate today? Here's the secret about Gretzky...

[211*]

So what???

Kent Nilsson used to hit the crossbar on demand from center 7:00 minute mark.


And Kovalev sat at center ice shooting pucks into a puck bag hanging from the crossbar, one after another.

Nilsson never had more than 49 goals in a season and Kovalev never more than 44 soooo....

no ones saying that gretzky wouldnt or would be the best player today, i think thats why things got out of hand here.

 

[revolverjgw]

First off, Gretzky had one of the most accurate slap shots in history, his backhand was not far behind and a lot of his goals were scored by simply being 10 moves ahead of everyone else.
Seriously, how many goals can you picture in your mind right now of Gretz simply being in the exact spot where the puck ended up and him putting it into an open cage?

Mario dominated physically, Gretzky dominated mentally. Don't get me wrong, Mario wasn't hurting mentally either but he wasn't on the same level as Wayne. Mario knew it, I knew it, 100% of the players that played with both knew it and 99.9999999% of the people who saw both players knew it.


There were so many goals either scored by or assisted by Gretzky that, even through extensive video replay, nobody except Gretzky knew how they went in.

Right, but despite his smarts, the goals stopped coming in elite amounts relatively early in his career. He was trending well downwards even before the Suter hit. And while that had an effect on him, it`s often overstated. At 29, he was barely a top 20 scorer in 1990, roughly on par with Ogrodnick, MacLean, Gagner, Thomas, and... Daniel Marois. Then he got hurt... 3 years later during his final Art Ross season he had declined a little more but at a predictable rate, he was roughly pretty much in the same place statistically and relatively on the leaderboards. His decline as a scorer was steeper than pretty much all the other elite historical scorers, reflected a sea change in goaltending style, and I see no reason to believe that things would be much different had Suter not mugged him.

You really need more physical tools than Gretzky had to score on these goalies enough to be an elite Richard contender. You can`t just rely on your brains, your backhand and your slapshot, especially if you`re not a crasher and banger. His results prove it.

But like I said, he`d obviously have different shot habits and maybe different aptitudes if he grew up with modern equipment shooting on modern goalies. More than most players, I have a hard time predicting just how many goals he would score today. He just had such a weird style and the league changed so much during his long career... so many variables.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

"Hey Wayne, they are STILL arguing on HFBOARDS if you would dominate in today's NHL."

"Really?"

"See that player?"

"He sees this ice this way."

"I see the ice this way."

"Told you he wouldn't score. Defence knew what he was going to do, a LONG time ago..."

 

[OrrNumber4]

Gretzky's a weird case. His shot was tailor made for the 80s, and much less effective later. Age, injury and era don't explain away his decline as a goal scorer relative to the career arcs of history's other great goal scorers.

Maybe growing up with composite sticks would benefit him greatly. But maybe he just wouldn't have the strength or mechanical aptitude for the kind of wrist shot you pretty much need to be an elite sniper against modern goalies... I mean its not everybody automatically becomes Joe Sakic when they're equipped with a better stick. It's impossible to say. But I'm confident Gretzky as he was, without an elite wrist shot, wouldn't challenge for the Richard let alone dominate like he did back then, no matter how smart he is. Of course he'd still own the Art Ross.

If you believe the guys who are really into advanced stats, goal-scoring declines heavily after you turn 25, and especially after you turn 29. It is the rare player who is an exception...

 

[Ogopogo*]

Right, but despite his smarts, the goals stopped coming in elite amounts relatively early in his career. He was trending well downwards even before the Suter hit. And while that had an effect on him, it`s often overstated. .

He matured as a player and made the conscious decision to be more of a playmaker than a goal scorer. When he was younger, he loved to score goals. When he got older, setting up others became his love.

No drop off, just a change in how he played the game.

 

[RabbinsDuck]

If you believe the guys who are really into advanced stats, goal-scoring declines heavily after you turn 25, and especially after you turn 29. It is the rare player who is an exception...

It's very evident the majority of goal scorers peak in their early 20s and decelerate after their mid 20s. I'm not sure why so many just ignore this when it comes to Gretzky. It's an oddity to find a goal scorer putting up similar or more goals into his late 20s, especially at an elite level.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Right, but despite his smarts, the goals stopped coming in elite amounts relatively early in his career. He was trending well downwards even before the Suter hit. And while that had an effect on him, it`s often overstated. At 29, he was barely a top 20 scorer in 1990, roughly on par with Ogrodnick, MacLean, Gagner, Thomas, and... Daniel Marois. Then he got hurt... 3 years later during his final Art Ross season he had declined a little more but at a predictable rate, he was roughly pretty much in the same place statistically and relatively on the leaderboards. His decline as a scorer was steeper than pretty much all the other elite historical scorers, reflected a sea change in goaltending style, and I see no reason to believe that things would be much different had Suter not mugged him.

You really need more physical tools than Gretzky had to score on these goalies enough to be an elite Richard contender. You can`t just rely on your brains, your backhand and your slapshot, especially if you`re not a crasher and banger. His results prove it.

But like I said, he`d obviously have different shot habits and maybe different aptitudes if he grew up with modern equipment shooting on modern goalies. More than most players, I have a hard time predicting just how many goals he would score today. He just had such a weird style and the league changed so much during his long career... so many variables.

Hey, totally an aside but my avatar says that Daniel Marois had good hands and a willingness to go into dirty places to score. He was pegged as an up and coming 50 goal scorer until he blew his shoulder out in his second season and was never really the same.

The loss of Damphousse as a linemate hurt him because they had great chemistry together and later on he suffered through back problems too.

Just saying.

"Hey Wayne, they are STILL arguing on HFBOARDS if you would dominate in today's NHL."

"Really?"

"See that player?"

"He sees this ice this way."

"I see the ice this way."

"Told you he wouldn't score. Defence knew what he was going to do, a LONG time ago..."

That was pretty good

I could totally see that.

If you believe the guys who are really into advanced stats, goal-scoring declines heavily after you turn 25, and especially after you turn 29. It is the rare player who is an exception...

Right.

Most goal scorers have their best years earlier on.. especially those of the late 70s and Wayne's generation.

They often were well done offensively by 30ish.

 

[Iain Fyffe]

He matured as a player and made the conscious decision to be more of a playmaker than a goal scorer. When he was younger, he loved to score goals. When he got older, setting up others became his love.

No drop off, just a change in how he played the game.

There was a thread last year where this was vigorouly rebutted, in particular with respect to 85/86.

There's nothing mature about wanting to be a playmaker, or immature about wanting to be a goal-scorer. Both help your team win.

 

[shazariahl]

huh he scored 65 when the gpg was 5.57....... so yeah he would its funny how gretzky leaves the powerhouse edmonton oilers team and his numbers dipped the following year while edmonton won the cup without him

o yeah and he scored 65 while the next player on his team had 69 points

That was my point - just because he isn't scoring as much later in his career doesn't mean he wasn't great in his best seasons. You're acting like Gretzky's numbers were somehow average after leaving Edmonton - the guy won 3 more scoring titles and scored more points in multiple seasons than anyone except Mario Lemieux. And frankly, Gretzky's numbers in Edmonton were starting to decline slightly - that's part of aging. So - less talent around him, he was older, and then the Canada Cup injury - of course he declined. But that doesn't take away from what he accomplished when he was actually in his prime.

The difference between him and Ovechkin, is that his prime lasted for 10 years. Ovechkin's was only half that, and Ovechkin didn't dominate nearly as much even during his much shorter prime. And that's not meant as a knock on Ovechkin either - 65 goals in the modern NHL is incredible. Just because he's not scoring 40 even now doesn't mean that his 65 goal season is somehow diminished.

 

[RabbinsDuck]

Yeah, Ovechkin's arc as a goal scorer is more the norm than the exception.

 

[revolverjgw]

If you believe the guys who are really into advanced stats, goal-scoring declines heavily after you turn 25, and especially after you turn 29. It is the rare player who is an exception...

As I said, I'm comparing Gretzky to the other elite goal scoring outliers, and his career arc stick out like a sore thumb. He was total non-factor on the leaderboards after 28.

Among the other leaders in adjusted goals-

Lemieux- obviously far more effective later on, not even close here.

Howe- ditto

Richard- elite into his mid 30s

Sakic- career high at 31, at age 37 scored 36

Bobby Hull- was 2nd in goal scoring at 33, then left for the WHA. He had a few more elite NHL seasons in him, probably. Better goal scorer than Gretzky.

Jagr- 54 goals at 33.

Shanahan- top 10 when he was 37

Espo- won the Richard at 32, top 10 at 36

Selanne- we all know about him and he's been doing since he turned 35.

Robitaille- reached the top 10 as old as 33, scored even more at 34

Brett Hull- top 10 at 33, top 10 at 38. Filled the net his whole career.

Messier- his best adjusted goal total came at age 35

Dionne- still top 10 at 34

Gartner- Gretzky used to lap this guy, but Gartner was the guy scoring 30-35 into his late 30s when Gretzky couldn't get past 25

Sundin- super consistent, was scoring 30+ into his mid 30s

Iginla- still a top scorer at 34

Yzerman- had a tougher time scoring as he aged, but he has a better excuse than Gretzky (a lot of these can make the same excuses people make for Gretzky's sharp decline)

And we had guys like Bure and Bossy who would certainly have done a lot better as they aged, too, they always had the touch. And two-time Richard winner Peter Bondra did too.

It's pretty damn glaring. Gretzky stands alone here. Despite being the all-time leader, he falls behind literally EVERY OTHER great goal scorer in this regard.

Yeah, Ovechkin's arc as a goal scorer is more the norm than the exception.

See above

And we don't know Ovechkin's career arc, he's only going into his 27yo season. We do know that he's had a rough couple of years, and he just finished a disappointing season, but he was still a top 5 goal scorer, better than the year before. It's very possible, with a better team situation and some personal tweaking of his game, that he gets right back into the Richard mix. He's still an elite goal scorer, it's hardly time to consider his career arc. I expect he'll at least get back to 40 and continue to be a top sniper in the league until a good old age.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

There was a thread last year where this was vigorouly rebutted, in particular with respect to 85/86.

There's nothing mature about wanting to be a playmaker, or immature about wanting to be a goal-scorer. Both help your team win.

I remember good arguments on both sides as to whether Gretzky made a conscious choice to be a playmaker.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

As I said, I'm comparing Gretzky to the other elite goal scoring outliers, and his career arc stick out like a sore thumb. He was total non-factor on the leaderboards after 28.

Among the other leaders in adjusted goals-

Lemieux- obviously far more effective later on, not even close here.

Howe- ditto

Richard- elite into his mid 30s

Sakic- career high at 31, at age 37 scored 36

Bobby Hull- was 2nd in goal scoring at 33, then left for the WHA. He had a few more elite NHL seasons in him, probably. Better goal scorer than Gretzky.

Jagr- 54 goals at 33.

Shanahan- top 10 when he was 37

Espo- won the Richard at 32, top 10 at 36

Selanne- we all know about him and he's been doing since he turned 35.

Robitaille- reached the top 10 as old as 33, scored even more at 34

Brett Hull- top 10 at 33, top 10 at 38. Filled the net his whole career.

Messier- his best adjusted goal total came at age 35

Dionne- still top 10 at 34

Gartner- Gretzky used to lap this guy, but Gartner was the guy scoring 30-35 into his late 30s when Gretzky couldn't get past 25

Sundin- super consistent, was scoring 30+ into his mid 30s

Iginla- still a top scorer at 34

Yzerman- had a tougher time scoring as he aged, but he has a better excuse than Gretzky (a lot of these can make the same excuses people make for Gretzky's sharp decline)

And we had guys like Bure and Bossy who would certainly have done a lot better as they aged, too, they always had the touch. And two-time Richard winner Peter Bondra did too.

It's pretty damn glaring. Gretzky stands alone here. Despite being the all-time leader, he falls behind literally EVERY OTHER great goal scorer in this regard.



See above

And we don't know Ovechkin's career arc, he's only going into his 27yo season. We do know that he's had a rough couple of years, and he just finished a disappointing season, but he was still a top 5 goal scorer, better than the year before. It's very possible, with a better team situation and some personal tweaking of his game, that he gets right back into the Richard mix. He's still an elite goal scorer, it's hardly time to consider his career arc. I expect he'll at least get back to 40 and continue to be a top sniper in the league until a good old age.

Sorry, I've lost track. What are we trying to prove here? That his career goal-scoring arc is different than other elite scorers? Okay, so what? I don't think that proves anything at all about how Gretzky would do today.

 

[Czech Your Math]

And we had guys like Bure and Bossy who would certainly have done a lot better as they aged, too, they always had the touch. And two-time Richard winner Peter Bondra did too.

It's pretty damn glaring. Gretzky stands alone here. Despite being the all-time leader, he falls behind literally EVERY OTHER great goal scorer in this regard.

And we don't know Ovechkin's career arc, he's only going into his 27yo season. We do know that he's had a rough couple of years, and he just finished a disappointing season, but he was still a top 5 goal scorer, better than the year before. It's very possible, with a better team situation and some personal tweaking of his game, that he gets right back into the Richard mix. He's still an elite goal scorer, it's hardly time to consider his career arc. I expect he'll at least get back to 40 and continue to be a top sniper in the league until a good old age.

I think there's a number of possible factors. You may be right that better goalies had something to do with Gretzky's decline in goal-scoring, but I don't think it's as simple as that. Other factors would be injuries and wear & tear, and his concentration on playmaking.

Gretzky was so dominating and his peak so absurdly high, that his drop appears even worse, especially as it was concurrent with league gpg starting to decline, although he certainly had a huge decline in goal-scoring. His assist totals didn't really decline much on an adjusted basis, so he shifted even more of his focus to playmaking.

Bossy and Bure couldn't even stay healthy at the point of their early retirements, so it's unlikely they were going to be among the leaders in goals after that. Another player to look at is Guy Lafleur, he also dropped like a rock in goals. I wouldn't say Lafleur and Yzerman dropped mainly because they didn't have what it took to beat better goalies, they just weren't the same players as in earlier years, due to age and injuries. Howe's best goal season weren't really much better than Gretzky's after their late 20s, mainly he was more consistent, probably due to a more durable build. Brett Hull remained consistent, but like Gretzky, he dropped quite a ways from a huge peak. Injuries had taken their toll on Gretzky and there's a lot more strain on the back on a slap shot than while making a pass.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but it was likely a combination of age, injuries, different team, different league environment (which is your point), and his increased focus on playmaking. I don't think it's as black and white as you appear to be claiming, neither in Gretzky being unique, nor in his style/ability being the only (or possibly even the largest) factor.

He did drop off more than most and I do think there may be something to what you're hypothesizing. The more diverse the skill set, the more likely one can adapt to changing league environment. However, most players don't have a fall back position of "well, I can just lead the league in assists, and take it easy on my back" or anything close to that.

One can see that Gretzky, Yzerman, Savard, Hawerchuk, etc. all suddenly and sharply dropped off in their late 20s and in the late 80s/early 90s. I don't see that as all that unusual, and mostly due to age and injuries. They all did so in the late 80s and early 90s, so maybe improved goaltending was a factor, but to assume that that's the only, or even largest, factor is really going out on a limb. Remember that these are exceptional players, so the fact that some of them can actually maintain anything remotely close to their peak levels as they get into their 30s is more a testament to them being exceptional, than it is normal.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

Quite frankly, here's the thing. You're never going to be able to convince me that the man who had a 10 year consecutive stretch of goal scoring totals that looks like 51, 55, 92, 71, 87, 73, 52*, 62, 40**, 54 from ages 19-28 would be an average goal scorer today. That's too many goals over a period of time that is longer than many NHLers careers.

*while tallying a hilarious 163 assists (think about this one - 2 assists per game. How many of those assists were passed up shot opportunities that would have padded his goal total).
**prorates to 50G over 80GP

 

[gretzkyoilers]

The "Curious Case Of Gretzky's Scoring" is one that has a few twists. In the 1987 Canada Cup, he had the most points: 21 pts in 9 games. Incredible. However, he only scored 3 goals, after coming off a 79 goal 86/87 season. Why? He was the best at using his teammates, and given how stacked Team Canada was, and playing with Mario, he focused on playmaking. Heck he TOLD Mario to shoot, and that he would be his setup man.

During the 1997 playoffs, Gretzky got 20 points in 15 games, scoring 10 goals & got 10 assists. In the regular season he only got 25 goals. Heck he had a better PPG in these playoffs than a prime Forsberg. Maybe he shifted to scoring more since he HAD to in order for his team to win, even though he could have been in physical pain (?)

Seems like Wayne could adapt his play, even in the twilight of his career, in order to to find the best way for his TEAM to WIN. A very unselfish player.

 

[Czech Your Math]

The "Curious Case Of Gretzky's Scoring" is one that has a few twists. In the 1987 Canada Cup, he had the most points: 21 pts in 9 games. Incredible. However, he only scored 3 goals, after coming off a 79 goal 86/87 season. Why? He was the best at using his teammates, and given how stacked Team Canada was, and playing with Mario, he focused on playmaking. Heck he TOLD Mario to shoot, and that he would be his setup man.

During the 1997 playoffs, Gretzky got 20 points in 15 games, scoring 10 goals & got 10 assists. In the regular season he only got 25 goals. Heck he had a better PPG in these playoffs than a prime Forsberg. Maybe he shifted to scoring more since he HAD to in order for his team to win, even though he could have been in physical pain (?)

Seems like Wayne could adapt his play, even in the twilight of his career, in order to to find the best way for his TEAM to WIN. A very unselfish player.

Good point. That is also why players who are both elite goal-scorers and elite playmakers are especially valuabe. They can adapt to the strengths of different and changing linemates, and are able to take advantage of whatever the defense gives them. I wonder if Thornton's struggles at times in the playoffs are in part due to him becoming focused so much on playmaking that he became too predictable.

 

[revolverjgw]

Sorry, I've lost track. What are we trying to prove here? That his career goal-scoring arc is different than other elite scorers? Okay, so what? I don't think that proves anything at all about how Gretzky would do today.

It proves that all the intelligence in the world isn't going to come close to making up for the lack of important physical tools. Gretzky did not adapt well to the new goaltending era compared to the rest of these players, which makes sense to me... all the rest of those guys seemed to have skillsets that better suited for it via things like speed, superior arsenal of shots, physical play around the net and in the corners, etc. Also, there are posters explaining his decline as a natural and common thing for any scorer, when that clearly isn't true for the elites. It's really only true for him. Some posters, like Rabbinsduck, predict as much as 70 goals from him, and I say there's no chance*. I say he doesn't have the particular skill set for that, and this is good evidence for that.

*no chance with his weak wrist shot, anyway. Though I can't predict how his wrist shot would be if he grew up in the modern environment.

It's one thing for each player to have a different arc. Everybody in that list has a different arc. But Gretzky's arc is especially interesting and telling, doubly so when you consider he's the number one scorer ever by a good margin. It's an extremely interesting and unusual statistical story, that's all.

The "Curious Case Of Gretzky's Scoring" is one that has a few twists. In the 1987 Canada Cup, he had the most points: 21 pts in 9 games. Incredible. However, he only scored 3 goals, after coming off a 79 goal 86/87 season. Why? He was the best at using his teammates, and given how stacked Team Canada was, and playing with Mario, he focused on playmaking. Heck he TOLD Mario to shoot, and that he would be his setup man.

I agree with you and Ogopogo that he focused more on playmaking at a certain point. He had to. He knew his strengths, he knew his weaknesses. His weaknesses were beginning to show.

Though it's not like his playmaking reached another level or anything. He wasn't any more dominant at it than he was before, probably less (this could be team related). His overall offensive performance still suffered quite a bit because he wasn't scoring nearly as much.

During the 1997 playoffs, Gretzky got 20 points in 15 games, scoring 10 goals & got 10 assists. In the regular season he only got 25 goals. Heck he had a better PPG in these playoffs than a prime Forsberg. Maybe he shifted to scoring more since he HAD to in order for his team to win, even though he could have been in physical pain (?)

He was clutch as hell in 1997, no doubt. I think he's the most clutch player ever. But that's a 20 game sample size vs many hundreds. Not much more telling than the 13 game sample size the playoffs year before where he scored only twice. Going by short playoff runs can really skew things, especially for somebody like him who missed the playoffs so often later. There's nothing close to a complete picture, especially here where he couldn't find the back of the net in his other multi-round run.

(also in back to back years, he scored pretty well in the World Cup and couldn't buy a goal in the Olympics... I don't think either situation is all that significant)

 

[Iain Fyffe]

I remember good arguments on both sides as to whether Gretzky made a conscious choice to be a playmaker.

Absolutely. What was rebutted was the claim that choice was the only possible explanation.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

It proves that all the intelligence in the world isn't going to come close to making up for the lack of important physical tools. Gretzky did not adapt well to the new goaltending era compared to the rest of these players

I think you've made a large jump in logic here without much to support it. Gretzky's goal scoring arc proves nothing like what you have claimed above. The explanation you have given is merely one hypothesis to account for Gretzky's scoring trend, and arguably not the best one. As you have said, all of those players have had unique arcs, and Gretzky is yet another unique arc. Gretzky may be considered an anomaly but Gretzky is an anomaly for everything! That's why we talk about him so much!

Incidentally, if you plot goals scored vs. games played, is Gretzky's arc (at least in shape, not magnitude of course) more similar to the 'norm' than it is if you go by just age as you have above? Just curious...

 

[Irato99]

As I said, I'm comparing Gretzky to the other elite goal scoring outliers, and his career arc stick out like a sore thumb. He was total non-factor on the leaderboards after 28.

Among the other leaders in adjusted goals-

Lemieux- obviously far more effective later on, not even close here.

Howe- ditto

Richard- elite into his mid 30s

Sakic- career high at 31, at age 37 scored 36

Bobby Hull- was 2nd in goal scoring at 33, then left for the WHA. He had a few more elite NHL seasons in him, probably. Better goal scorer than Gretzky.

Jagr- 54 goals at 33.

Shanahan- top 10 when he was 37

Espo- won the Richard at 32, top 10 at 36

Selanne- we all know about him and he's been doing since he turned 35.

Robitaille- reached the top 10 as old as 33, scored even more at 34

Brett Hull- top 10 at 33, top 10 at 38. Filled the net his whole career.

Messier- his best adjusted goal total came at age 35

Dionne- still top 10 at 34

Gartner- Gretzky used to lap this guy, but Gartner was the guy scoring 30-35 into his late 30s when Gretzky couldn't get past 25

Sundin- super consistent, was scoring 30+ into his mid 30s

Iginla- still a top scorer at 34

Yzerman- had a tougher time scoring as he aged, but he has a better excuse than Gretzky (a lot of these can make the same excuses people make for Gretzky's sharp decline)

And we had guys like Bure and Bossy who would certainly have done a lot better as they aged, too, they always had the touch. And two-time Richard winner Peter Bondra did too.

It's pretty damn glaring. Gretzky stands alone here. Despite being the all-time leader, he falls behind literally EVERY OTHER great goal scorer in this regard.



See above

And we don't know Ovechkin's career arc, he's only going into his 27yo season. We do know that he's had a rough couple of years, and he just finished a disappointing season, but he was still a top 5 goal scorer, better than the year before. It's very possible, with a better team situation and some personal tweaking of his game, that he gets right back into the Richard mix. He's still an elite goal scorer, it's hardly time to consider his career arc. I expect he'll at least get back to 40 and continue to be a top sniper in the league until a good old age.

The big flaw in this comparison is how many of these players you named are considered playmaking centermen? Gretzky never really was a finisher but more a setup man, even on his high scoring seasons he had a lot more assists than goals.

 

[Rhiessan71]

As I said, I'm comparing Gretzky to the other elite goal scoring outliers, and his career arc stick out like a sore thumb. He was total non-factor on the leaderboards after 28.

Among the other leaders in adjusted goals-

Lemieux- obviously far more effective later on, not even close here.

Howe- ditto

Richard- elite into his mid 30s

Sakic- career high at 31, at age 37 scored 36

Bobby Hull- was 2nd in goal scoring at 33, then left for the WHA. He had a few more elite NHL seasons in him, probably. Better goal scorer than Gretzky.

Jagr- 54 goals at 33.

Shanahan- top 10 when he was 37

Espo- won the Richard at 32, top 10 at 36

Selanne- we all know about him and he's been doing since he turned 35.

Robitaille- reached the top 10 as old as 33, scored even more at 34

Brett Hull- top 10 at 33, top 10 at 38. Filled the net his whole career.

Messier- his best adjusted goal total came at age 35

Dionne- still top 10 at 34

Gartner- Gretzky used to lap this guy, but Gartner was the guy scoring 30-35 into his late 30s when Gretzky couldn't get past 25

Sundin- super consistent, was scoring 30+ into his mid 30s

Iginla- still a top scorer at 34

Yzerman- had a tougher time scoring as he aged, but he has a better excuse than Gretzky (a lot of these can make the same excuses people make for Gretzky's sharp decline)

And we had guys like Bure and Bossy who would certainly have done a lot better as they aged, too, they always had the touch. And two-time Richard winner Peter Bondra did too.

It's pretty damn glaring. Gretzky stands alone here. Despite being the all-time leader, he falls behind literally EVERY OTHER great goal scorer in this regard.

Now go through all those guys and tell me how many scored 50 or more goals at age 18 and already had 9 50+ goal seasons by age 28 which included a 92 goal season at just 21, 71 at age 22, 87 at 23 and 73 at 24.

Lets look at it another way. By the time Gretzky's goal totals dipped below 50 permanently after age 28, he had already amassed a whopping 637 goals in just 774 games over 10 seasons.

So while Gretzky's goal production may have dipped sooner than some, he also started much sooner.

 

[alanschu]

As I said, I'm comparing Gretzky to the other elite goal scoring outliers, and his career arc stick out like a sore thumb. He was total non-factor on the leaderboards after 28.

The year he got hit by Suter?

 

[Rhiessan71]

The year he got hit by Suter?

That was '91, just prior to his 4th season with the Kings.

His goal scoring had slowly been on the decline previous to that but it was all on a pretty steady bell curve prior to the Suter hit.
Everything dropped sharply after the hit and that was the end of the Gretzky as we knew him, he was never the same after that.
Only a mere mortal.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

That was '91, just prior to his 4th season with the Kings.

His goal scoring had slowly been on the decline previous to that but it was all on a pretty steady bell curve prior to the Suter hit.
Everything dropped sharply after the hit and that was the end of the Gretzky as we knew him, he was never the same after that.
Only a mere mortal.

The get an idea of the severity of his back injury (Suter + years of being being hit from behind):

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1137563/index.htm

About Wayne's back: The actual ailment is a herniated thoracic disk that radiates pain to his chest. The injury is most likely the result of his getting hit from behind for 14 seasons, a violence that has seemed to escalate against Gretzky in recent years. And though he had complained of rib pain after last season's playoffs, the cause went undiagnosed. Not until preseason camp, to which he reported in peak condition, did Gretzky experience the excruciating chest pain. Actually, he had no pain through three days of skating. Then he returned home to be with his wife, Janet Jones, as the birth of their third child neared. At home, in the middle of the night, the pain struck, forcing him to the hospital for a week. It was an alarming event all around. "We visited him in the hospital," recalls Granato, "and everyone became as scared as he was."

Doctors knew of no other athlete who had recovered from a herniated thoracic disk to play again. "We have no timetable for this program and will not speculate on a date for his return," said Dr. Robert Watkins, an orthopedic consultant.