Beacon
Embrace the tank
- May 28, 2007
- 13,676
- 1,454
No fan ever wants to go through years of rebuilding. Visit any team's forum - even in the darkest day, the fans believe they only need 1-2 years out of the playoffs and they're right back in Cup contention. But it rarely works that way, and it certainly won't for the Rangers.
1. The most obvious reason is that Lundqvist, Staal, Smith are signed until 2021. That's $18.55 in cap space. You think they're not worth the money now? Do you think a 38 year old Lundqvist suddenly lives up to the $8.5 bill? How many players in their late 30s are worth that much? Staal and Smith will lose one more step in 2-3 years.
2. McDonagh and Zuccarello will either be gone or signed to overpaid UFA contracts. We got lucky/smart signing #27 when he was young. Zucc wanted to stay in New York because he loves the city, but also because it was a Cup contender and his best friend (Brass) was here. I highly doubt he re-signs for $4.5 again. Kind of insulting to him to offer him the same Smith is getting.
3. The next 2 years, Girardi's cap hit will rise $1 million to $3.61. Between Girardi, Lundqvist, Smith and Staal, that's almost $21.2 tied in dead weight or highly overpaid contracts. These contracts (except Girardi) will only get worse, as stated above.
4. As McDonagh, Shatty and MZA enter their 30s, they will start to lose a step, maybe even hit injuries. Maybe not all of them, but likely 2 of 3, and certainly 1 of 3. It is possible that some or all 3 of the above get traded, but normally when you get younger, you either accept a lesser player or you get a prospect/pick who takes years to develop. You could always get lucky and steal someone, but how often can you get a 23 year old for an equally good 31 year old? Would you trade Butcher for an equal player 8 years his senior?
5. Nash will leave, probably for a couple second rounders who will take years to develop, if they ever will. We could sign his replacement, but why? A UFA is (kind of) worth his salary only in the early years, and becomes an anchor in the second half of his contract. Why sign someone who will be at the tail end of his contract when Lundqvist, Staal, Smith, etc are gone, and Chytil, Lias, etc are ready to contribute? Also, if we keep McDonagh and MZA, most of Nash's salary will go towards their raises.
6. Even if Lias and Chytil are as good as advertised, it will be at least until their early 20s when they hit their prime, meaning in 3-4 years. Shesterkin won't be here for a couple of years and may need a couple more to really learn the NHL game.
That's not even counting that tere are always more busts than there are surprises. Our top-13 picks in the last 30 years are: Jay More (10 overall), Michael Stewart (13), Sundstrom (8), Malhotra (7), Brendl (4), Lundmark (9), Blackburn (10), Jessiman (12), Montoya (6), Staal (12) and McIlrath (10). Staal is the only one who could be said to have been an above average NHLer, at least for a few seasons, but even he's nowhere near star level.
Many kids looked great for a few months and then disappeared. That includes first rounders like Del Zotto and to some degree Peter Ferraro. After we drafted him, Ferraro scored almost 1.5 points per game as a college freshman and then over 100 points in 68 games in the AHL as a 22 year old. I remember the Rangers hyping him up for years, until the summer of 1996, and especially during the first lockout. That's not counting that we could lose someone young to a career-ending injury (Blackburn, Cherneski and Cherry). I'm sure we'll get a couple prospects out of our bunch, but do we get enough quantity and quality to replace Nash, Grabner, MZA(?), etc plus make up for the slowing down of some vets?
I think the Rangers recognize the above. This is why the contracts for Shatty, Staal and Smith will all end at the same time as Lundqvist's. Girardi's cap hit will drop to $1.11 the year before that. Staal is not getting bought out because it will mean his buyout cap hit would then extend past 2021. I doubt that's a coincident, I suspect it's part of the strategy.
Nothing stops the team from trading vets for youth in the meanwhile, but the all-out assault on the Cup should be timed to begin our peak during the 2021-22 season. The Rangers preferred in recent years to acquire older prospects over picks. That strategy may change. For the first time since 2004, they just acquired a first round pick - 4 years is enough to develop a draftee. If they thought they can rebuild in a year or two, it would've made more sense to get a guy who's 22 years old as the centerpiece of the Stepan trade.
In sports, like in war, it is crucial to concentrate your forces. If you have one good ELC player this year and another good ELC player in 3 years, you'll never be terrible, but you will never win the Cup. The GM should time it so that the team is ready to go for the Cup all at once, in our case in 2021-22. Get rid of anyone who will be too old by then. Acquire picks/prospects who should be on cheap ELCs by then. Then try to strike gold in 2022 instead of, "if we make the playoffs, anything can happen."
1. The most obvious reason is that Lundqvist, Staal, Smith are signed until 2021. That's $18.55 in cap space. You think they're not worth the money now? Do you think a 38 year old Lundqvist suddenly lives up to the $8.5 bill? How many players in their late 30s are worth that much? Staal and Smith will lose one more step in 2-3 years.
2. McDonagh and Zuccarello will either be gone or signed to overpaid UFA contracts. We got lucky/smart signing #27 when he was young. Zucc wanted to stay in New York because he loves the city, but also because it was a Cup contender and his best friend (Brass) was here. I highly doubt he re-signs for $4.5 again. Kind of insulting to him to offer him the same Smith is getting.
3. The next 2 years, Girardi's cap hit will rise $1 million to $3.61. Between Girardi, Lundqvist, Smith and Staal, that's almost $21.2 tied in dead weight or highly overpaid contracts. These contracts (except Girardi) will only get worse, as stated above.
4. As McDonagh, Shatty and MZA enter their 30s, they will start to lose a step, maybe even hit injuries. Maybe not all of them, but likely 2 of 3, and certainly 1 of 3. It is possible that some or all 3 of the above get traded, but normally when you get younger, you either accept a lesser player or you get a prospect/pick who takes years to develop. You could always get lucky and steal someone, but how often can you get a 23 year old for an equally good 31 year old? Would you trade Butcher for an equal player 8 years his senior?
5. Nash will leave, probably for a couple second rounders who will take years to develop, if they ever will. We could sign his replacement, but why? A UFA is (kind of) worth his salary only in the early years, and becomes an anchor in the second half of his contract. Why sign someone who will be at the tail end of his contract when Lundqvist, Staal, Smith, etc are gone, and Chytil, Lias, etc are ready to contribute? Also, if we keep McDonagh and MZA, most of Nash's salary will go towards their raises.
6. Even if Lias and Chytil are as good as advertised, it will be at least until their early 20s when they hit their prime, meaning in 3-4 years. Shesterkin won't be here for a couple of years and may need a couple more to really learn the NHL game.
That's not even counting that tere are always more busts than there are surprises. Our top-13 picks in the last 30 years are: Jay More (10 overall), Michael Stewart (13), Sundstrom (8), Malhotra (7), Brendl (4), Lundmark (9), Blackburn (10), Jessiman (12), Montoya (6), Staal (12) and McIlrath (10). Staal is the only one who could be said to have been an above average NHLer, at least for a few seasons, but even he's nowhere near star level.
Many kids looked great for a few months and then disappeared. That includes first rounders like Del Zotto and to some degree Peter Ferraro. After we drafted him, Ferraro scored almost 1.5 points per game as a college freshman and then over 100 points in 68 games in the AHL as a 22 year old. I remember the Rangers hyping him up for years, until the summer of 1996, and especially during the first lockout. That's not counting that we could lose someone young to a career-ending injury (Blackburn, Cherneski and Cherry). I'm sure we'll get a couple prospects out of our bunch, but do we get enough quantity and quality to replace Nash, Grabner, MZA(?), etc plus make up for the slowing down of some vets?
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I think the Rangers recognize the above. This is why the contracts for Shatty, Staal and Smith will all end at the same time as Lundqvist's. Girardi's cap hit will drop to $1.11 the year before that. Staal is not getting bought out because it will mean his buyout cap hit would then extend past 2021. I doubt that's a coincident, I suspect it's part of the strategy.
Nothing stops the team from trading vets for youth in the meanwhile, but the all-out assault on the Cup should be timed to begin our peak during the 2021-22 season. The Rangers preferred in recent years to acquire older prospects over picks. That strategy may change. For the first time since 2004, they just acquired a first round pick - 4 years is enough to develop a draftee. If they thought they can rebuild in a year or two, it would've made more sense to get a guy who's 22 years old as the centerpiece of the Stepan trade.
In sports, like in war, it is crucial to concentrate your forces. If you have one good ELC player this year and another good ELC player in 3 years, you'll never be terrible, but you will never win the Cup. The GM should time it so that the team is ready to go for the Cup all at once, in our case in 2021-22. Get rid of anyone who will be too old by then. Acquire picks/prospects who should be on cheap ELCs by then. Then try to strike gold in 2022 instead of, "if we make the playoffs, anything can happen."
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