plusandminus
Registered User
- Mar 7, 2011
- 1,404
- 268
But the "same value" that you mentioned isn't true. A GTG 2 minutes into the first period has very different value than a GTG with 2 second left in the third period.
I agree. A GTG with 2 seconds left of regulation is very important.
But on the other hand. Since most seems to agree that the 1st goal of the game is very important (especially in the playoffs), a quick equalizer would erase that advantage and thus change the game dramatically - sort of "back to zero" again.
And what happens when the next time one of the teams score? Then we are back again to a one-goal lead. I think in games where in the end both teams are within two goals, every goal is important.
Exceptions would be big wins. But those are not as common these days than they used to be. (In the Bobby Clarke vs Bobby Orr thread, it is being mentioned that Orr's Boston had many huge wins. Gretzky would be another example of someone playing seeing big wins, while also Gretzky seemingly being very keen to produce points even in those "already settled" games.)
I think GWG should be exchanged for better stats. 1st goals would be better. Or more sophisticated stats.
By the way, in tennis there was a commentator some decades ago that used to speak about "the important 7th game" of the sets. But I and others tended to almost make fun about that, while thinking that every game is about as important. It doesn't matter if you break the opponent's serve in the 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th or 9th game, as long as you keep your own serve in the 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 10th.
(No we got some tennis too, as a balance to all the baseball talk. )
You can give value to goals by when they occur and how they change the score by comparing it with average won-loss percentages that vary on time line and goal differential.
You are welcome to give examples.