With the HHOF selection committee dummying up lately and reading hfboards to see who the real experts see as the best players not in (I kid… but not really), leading to the inductions of Lindros, Gilmour, Oates, Bure, Howe, and Makarov, we’re left with no one who jumps out as an obvious slam dunk anymore.
Obviously there is a lot to consider besides points, but if they were going to say “let’s just induct the best offensive player not yet in”, the top non-HHOF modern forwards by VsX who are eligible are:
Recchi 636
Kariya 607
Turgeon 603
Roenick 585
Leclair 584
Fleury 582
Naslund 581
Palffy 574
Mogilny 568
Nicholls 565
Tkachuk 565
Weight 562
Damphousse 544
Larmer 535
Nilsson 528
Kovalev 526
Brind’Amour 523
Amonte 521
Middleton 519
Bondra 517
Andreychuk 516
B.Smith 512
Martin 511
Whitney 510
Propp 502
Janney 496
Taylor 493
Muller 484
Bellows 478
Broten 474
Kerr 470
Verbeek 464
Tocchet 449
Hunter 413
This probably includes the entire top-20 but beyond that it’s just the names I could think of, and a few guys are probably missed.
The way I see these tiers are as follows:
- Easy induction without a second thought: Mark Recchi
- Definitely good enough peak numbers to make it: Kariya through Naslund. I would not cry foul at any of these names making it. However, there are reasons to keep each one of them out, too. Naslund’s peak seasons are backed up by so little else that his induction would take some real getting used to for a lot of us.
- Just not enough: Palffy through Weight. That is, this isn’t enough to get in on numbers alone, but if they had other factors in their favour, they could. But they don’t.
- Mixed bag: Damphousse through Propp. This range contains one dimensional players who didn’t achieve nearly enough offensively (Nilsson, Kovalev, Amonte, Bondra, Andreychuk, Martin, Whitney), two-way centers who almost have the right mix of offense, defense and team success but not quite (Damphousse, Brind’Amour, Smith), and two-way wingers whose names come up often enough that their induction wouldn’t shock anyone but would be considered weak, low-end inductions (Middleton, Propp, Larmer)
- Not close: Janney and beyond. There’s just not enough sustained offense here. Kerr’s the only one with an injury excuse. Any of these guys would need Bergeron level defense to get in (Bergeron has the same score as Verbeek already and I think he gets in, all things considered).
How do some active and ineligible guys stack up if you assume they retire right now:
Jagr 805
Crosby 713 (717 after 2017)
Ovechkin 689
Thornton 669
Selanne 667
St. Louis 645
Malkin 625 (635)
Iginla 607
H. Sedin 593
Kane 591 (623)
Kovalchuk 588
Backstrom 584 (614)
Stamkos 581
Datsyuk 578
Hossa 576
Alfredsson 576
Getzlaf 575 (586)
D.Sedin 560
Giroux 559 (581)
Spezza 554
Elias 552
Staal 551 (556)
Zetterberg 546 (556)
Richards 546
Lecavalier 539
Tavares 539 (563)
Kopitar 537
Perry 525
Kessel 525 (549)
Ribeiro 519
Tanguay 514
Marleau 511
Benn 510 (550)
Toews 506 (509)
Pavelski 498 (520)
Parise 495
Gaborik 489
Nash 485
Vanek 481
Gomez 472
Bergeron 465 (467)
Sharp 464
Doan 463
Pominville 462
Carter 456 (474)
Krejci 449 (462)
Semin 449
Similar to above, there are tiers that develop at almost the exact same ranges.
- Jagr to Malkin are obvious first ballot based on numbers alone – nothing else would even matter. Iginla trails behind them, but factor in that he was a winger who had poor linemates, spent his whole career in the west and had intangibles, and he’s as good a candidate as MSL. This range doesn’t exist in the first list because eligible players this obvious have all been inducted.
- Definitely good enough peak numbers to make it: H. Sedin through Getzlaf. For each player in this tier it’s a question of whether they achieved enough or had that certain “it” that made them more memorable. But they do have an offensive peak/prime that can’t be questioned.
- Just not enough: Heatley through Staal. These numbers are not enough to get in on their own. However, Sedin has it in his favour that he’s probably getting in with Henrik, IF Henrik gets in, and Elias has lots of reasons he’s better than that number, and is to me a very strong inductee.
- Mixed bag: Zetterberg through Toews. You’ve got one-dimensional players whose offense alone can’t get them there (Richards, Lecavalier, Kessel, Ribeiro, Hejduk, Tanguay, Marleau), a couple of power forwards with an outside shot if their careers finish off favorably (Benn, Perry), and three outstanding two-way forwards who should be in anyone’s hall (Kopitar, Zetterberg, Toews)
- Not close: Pavelski through Koivu. With this level of offense, you’d need Bergeron-level defense to get in, and Bergeron does, in fact, have that, so he’s getting in.
edit: updated the active guys. Bolded are the biggest risers.
- Crosby makes a marginal gain, doesn't change that he's a 1st ballot lock
- Malkin makes a slightly larger game, once again GP holds him back but he's a 1st ballot lock
- Kane now has enough top level regular seasons that he's clearly in the 1st ballot lock category.
- Backstrom is becoming difficult to ignore following another top-10 season and another season scoring more points than his linemate. He just hopped up into the realm occupied by Iginla, a 1st ballot lock, though I would still call backstrom an exception in this category
- Getzlaf strengthens his position in the "good enough numbers to make it" category, with a prime very close to Henrik Sedin
- Giroux no longer has "just not enough". He's now proven to be a good enough producer, now needs to add some more substance
- Staal very marginally boosts his score, remaining in the "just not enough" category.
- Zetterberg jumps up to that "just not enough" category, but he is an outlier in this group for his defense and playoffs. He's already a HHOFer in my books.
- Tavares remains about a season behind Giroux in the "good scorers who don't do much else" category, he now has an offensive prime just short of the HHOF range, assuming he does that, it's just a matter of substance and longevity now.
- Kessel bumps himself up to the top of the "mixed bag" crowd, but it's up in the air whether any of his regular seasons from age 30 on will exceed his current 7th best score of 65, so he's stuck around here.
- Benn makes a huge jump into the "just not enough" crowd, but he's still young.
- Toews, with his 6th best regular season, makes a tiny upward move, but he's destined to remain in this category and make the HHOF for defense and winning
- Pavelski jumps from "not close" to mixed bag. He doesn't have the defensive prime of HHOFer Kopitar, but his offense is one season away from getting there.
- Berereon makes an insignificant gain and will remain in this category forever. his offense is not close to HHOF level but we all know he'll get there.
- Jeff Carter has his 2nd best season and makes a good jump. Still - not close.
- Krejci rises a fair amount. Not close.
after 2018 season:
retired and eligible guys:
Turgeon 603
Roenick 585
Leclair 584
Fleury 582
Naslund 581
Alfredsson 576
Palffy 574
Mogilny 568
Heatley 566
Nicholls 565
Tkachuk 565
Weight 562
Damphousse 544
Larmer 535
Nilsson 528
Kovalev 526
Brind’Amour 523
Amonte 521
Middleton 519
Bondra 517
B.Smith 512
Hejduk 512
Martin 511
Whitney 510
Propp 502
Janney 496
Taylor 493
Muller 484
Jokinen 479
Bellows 478
Bertuzzi 478
Sullivan 474
Broten 474
Briere 473
Kerr 470
Verbeek 464
Tocchet 449
Prospal 448
Arnott 442
Smyth 441
Gagne 439
S.Koivu 428
Hunter 413
Inducted players now removed. Turgeon, LeClair, Fleury, Roenick and Naslund stand alone as players with HHOF-caliber prime point production. Naslund stands out as having next to nothing outside his prime.
Next group are guys who are close in numbers but need something else to help them. Alfredsson has an ok chance as a longtime face of a franchise and captain, and was very good defensively. Tkachuk was very goal-heavy, a power forward, arguable leader of a strong American generation, and missed 42 games in his best seven seasons - his actual production was trending to 613 territory (ahead of Turgeon, who was trending to 634 himself).
Next group is the same as before: Damphousse through Propp. This range contains one dimensional players who didn’t achieve nearly enough offensively (Hejduk, Nilsson, Kovalev, Amonte, Bondra, Martin, Whitney), two-way centers who almost have the right mix of offense, defense and team success but not quite (Damphousse, Brind’Amour, Smith), and two-way wingers whose names come up often enough that their induction wouldn’t shock anyone but would be considered weak, low-end inductions (Middleton, Propp, Larmer)
Not close: Janney and beyond. There’s just not enough sustained offense here. Kerr’s the only one with an injury excuse. Any of these guys would need Bergeron level defense to get in (Bergeron has the same score as Verbeek already and I think he gets in, all things considered).
Active and ineligible pile:
Jagr 805
Crosby 713 (717 after 2017) (same after 2018)
Ovechkin 689
Thornton 669
Malkin 625 (635) (656)
Kane 591 (623) (624)
Stamkos 581 (619)
Giroux 559 (581) (616)
Backstrom 584 (615)
Iginla 607
H. Sedin 593
Kovalchuk 588
Getzlaf 575 (586)
Datsyuk 578
Tavares 539 (563) (577)
Hossa 576
Kessel 525 (549) (573)
Benn 510 (550) (570)
Staal 551 (556) (561)
D.Sedin 560
Zetterberg 546 (556)
Kopitar 537 (554)
Spezza 554
Elias 552
Seguin 551
Wheeler 548
Richards 546
Lecavalier 539
Pavelski 498 (520) (531)
Perry 525
Ribeiro 519
Tanguay 514
Marleau 511
Voracek 510
Toews 506 (509)
Hall 502
Parise 495
Gaborik 489
Nash 485
Vanek 481
Marchand 478
Carter 456 (474)
Gomez 472
Bergeron 465 (467) (469)
Pacioretty 466
Sharp 464
Doan 463
Krejci 449 (462)
Pominville 462
Duchene 461
Eberle 459
Semin 449
Eriksson 446
Couture 446
M.Koivu 444
Stastny 444
How the tiers look today:
First group are locks, at least based on numbers. Really only the last four are worthy of discussion. Stamkos burned really brightly and flamed out, but he's redeemed himself well, and even if that doesn't continue, at this point you have to think he has enough meat on the bone. I've never watched Giroux and Backstrom and thought they were HHOFers but they've managed to compile their way there, and I don't mean compile 50-60 point seasons, but 70+ over and over again. If Backstrom doesn't make it, he'd be the only five-time top-10 scorer of the modern era to miss. If Giroux misses, he's just the third four-timer to miss. And neither one of them is close to finished. Iginla has the power forward factor in his favour, plus goals, plus very little help on Calgary, plus longtime face of a franchise and captain, plus his high-end seasons were very high end compared to other guys with a score like his.
Second group is the "Definitely good enough peak numbers to make it" category: H. Sedin through Benn. For each player in this tier it’s a question of whether they achieved enough or had that certain “it” that made them more memorable. But they do have an offensive peak/prime that can’t be questioned.
Just not enough: Staal through Wheeler. These numbers are not enough to get in on their own. However, Sedin has it in his favour that he’s probably getting in with Henrik, IF Henrik gets in, and Elias has lots of reasons he’s better than that number, and is to me a very strong inductee. Zetterberg has enough other things in his favour: Smythe, defense, leadership, games missed puts him at 580: Getzlaf territory. Kopitar, same.
Mixed bag: Richards through Hall. You’ve got one-dimensional players whose offense alone can’t get them there (Richards, Lecavalier, Ribeiro, Tanguay, Voracek, Hall), a power forward with an outside shot if his career finishes off favorably, but doubtful (Perry), and an outstanding two-way forward who should be in anyone’s hall ( Toews). Pavelski and Marleau are in the middle of all that. Marleau with an outside shot thanks to compiling, GP records, ironman streak and the two cups he's going to win in Toronto.
Not close: Parise through Stastny. With this level of offense, you’d need Bergeron-level defense to get in, and Bergeron does, in fact, have that, so he’s getting in. Otherwise, no one here has a hope, though Marchand is only 30, peaked at 29, plays with Bergeron (and has a very unique skill set) so he may sneak in.