Why don't more teams engage in "full blown" rebuilds?

[y2kcanucks]

Are you and the rest of the fan base prepared to suck for countless years like they did?
Even now some fans are moaning because we haven't turned the corner, can you imagine what 7, 8, 9 or 10 years of absolute suck would be like on here?

Jim Benning has us well on that path.

 

[RandV]

The few teams that have gone 'full rebuild' recently were already at rock bottom, and it usually only amounts to 1-3 teams a season. How do you think the league would look if there were suddenly 5-10 teams trying to aggressively 'rebuild' at the same time? I've seen this situation playing in sim leagues and it's a gong show.

 

[Dissonance]

The few teams that have gone 'full rebuild' recently were already at rock bottom, and it usually only amounts to 1-3 teams a season. How do you think the league would look if there were suddenly 5-10 teams trying to aggressively 'rebuild' at the same time? I've seen this situation playing in sim leagues and it's a gong show.

Yeah, I suspect if you saw a lot of teams intentionally tanking the league would step in and change the rules (like give all non-playoff teams an equal shot at the first overall pick in the lottery or whatnot).

 

[RandV]

Yeah, I suspect if you saw a lot of teams intentionally tanking the league would step in and change the rules (like give all non-playoff teams an equal shot at the first overall pick in the lottery or whatnot).

That too but it wasn't really what I was getting at. By the OP's metric, there should probably be 5-10 teams pursuing an aggressive rebuild at any given time. How do you finish bottom 3 when they're are 10 other teams trying to do the same? How do you accumulate draft picks when suddenly there's 3x as many teams also trying to stockpile.

Then onto UFA's, lets use Vancouver as an example. A proper rebuilding Vancouver wouldn't sign Eriksson last summer, so Loui has to go somewhere else... maybe he ends up on a lesser deal in Ottawa? But now that Ottawa has Eriksson they don't need Burrows at the deadline, so no Dalhen trade for Vancouver.

So basically what I'm saying is we've only ever seen 1-3 teams in a real rebuild phase in any given season, and we're judging it's effectiveness based on that. If that group suddenly doubles or triples, all it's going to do is create a buyers market and decrease the effectiveness of a rebuild.

 

[Fatass]

I think with the recent success of the Oilers and Leafs rebuilds, we might want to do the same. The Oilers were stuck in a compete now, while trying to transition to youth until they got in new management, as were the Leafs. Maybe, we need to follow the same path? It would be hard to see the Twins and Edler go though

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

IMO, the onus is entirely on ownership.

If the only goal for ownership is to win a championship, they will do everything in their power to construct a team worthy of a championship and allow management and to operate in that capacity.

Look at The 76ers. Conducted "The Process" and literally **** the bed for the last several years.

However, there is obviously more to it than just having a lone goal for winning a championship.

Given that most ownership groups also run the team as a business and want to see profits or at the very least a small loss, then most teams do not take this path for more than a couple years.

Given the fact that the US dollar has been spanking the CDN dollar in recent months and the fact revenues come in at CDN dollars and a majority of expenses are paid in US dollars, Canadian ownership groups will have a tough time strictly focusing on doing anything for a championship.

The Leafs are in a unique situation given who their owners are whereas most teams are run by a single person or family.

 

[yvrtojfk]

I'd love for someone to conduct a case study on this. Not just in hockey but in other sports and see what the outcomes are for teams that intentionally tank and where they end up as a franchise. We could probably drill down on certain franchises of the past 10 years to see how they got to where they did.

You look at Chicago, Pittsburgh and others and they just sucked (intentional or not) and built a great core. Not all years are the same in terms of quality of the draft.

As a franchise, you can't just suck and expect to be good. A lot has to do with great draft years, excellent management whether that's for the cap, assembling the team, signing UFAs, making the right trades, scouts, development of players and personnel, and your farm team, among many other things.

Part of me feels like it's looked down upon intentionally tanking across the league with other GMs and owners.

I'm all for team tank though. When a team is hitting rock bottom might as well expedite the process and leverage the **** situation. I don't think it's hard to sell the idea to owners but you need someone competent to do that.

 

[Cogburn]

There is no guarantee as far as even a generational talent goes. You're losing for, an at best, 15 or so percent chance of winning the draft lottery. Imagine Colorado fans reaction to getting the 4th overall pick this year.

That and the media coverage for trading fan favorites can be brutal.

No movement clauses for players that are key to a winning teams success are way more common too.

Most ownership groups are looking for maximum return, and generally selling off star players hurts the bottom line.

"League Parity". Thanks Bettman.

No matter how bad you think you are, there will always be a team that will plummet due to injuries, off ice issues or what ever else you can shake a stick at.

Unless you're ahead of the game and know a bad season is on the horizon, a total teardown is almost impossible. We moved Hansen and Burrows, but can you imagine the logistics in moving both Sedins, Edler, Miller and possible guys like Tanev, Sutter, Sbisa and even Markstrom. Yeah, not happening often. Remember the pre-Ovechkin teardown? That would be impossible in the cap world.

 

[Frank Garrett]

Never go full rebuild.

 

[Canucks1096]

A rebuild does take a long time and doesn't gurantee success. Also Hockey is still a business. Owners want playoff revenue.

But if you look at the successful rebuild over the years. A lot of it was based on luck on why the teams were successful in the rebuild

2007 hawks won't the draft lottery and went from 5th to 1st overall and drafted Kane. No Kane and there will no cup at all

2005 Pits won the draft lottery and got Crosby. No Crosby no cup

2015 OIlers went from 3rd to 1st overall and got Mcdavid. No Mcdavid it would of been 11 year no playoffs.

 

[ChilliBilly]

A rebuild does take a long time and doesn't gurantee success. Also Hockey is still a business. Owners want playoff revenue.

But if you look at the successful rebuild over the years. A lot of it was based on luck on why the teams were successful in the rebuild

2007 hawks won't the draft lottery and went from 5th to 1st overall and drafted Kane. No Kane and there will no cup at all

2005 Pits won the draft lottery and got Crosby. No Crosby no cup

2015 OIlers went from 3rd to 1st overall and got Mcdavid. No Mcdavid it would of been 11 year no playoffs.

Pretty much. What was the consensus as to when the Canucks should start to tank?

Certainly not 2011. 2012 we won the President's trophy.

In reality we have had better draft picks in 3 of the 4 last seasons than we deserve. This year and last we dove to the bottom in spectacular fashion, though sadly we have made some poor picks. Virtanen is not looking good, and way to early to know whether Juolevi is a good choice or not. Managing to come in 29th this year is amazing. But the lottery makes tanking much more difficult. Say we pick 4th this year .... there is no franchise player standing out as the 4th pick. Heck, there are still doubts about every player in the top 5. Or top 10.

And where are we now? A 1st overall away from competing for a cup? We actually may be in much better shape then expected. We have a bunch of left field picks causing some optimism.

Boeser, Gaudette, Juolevi and this year's 1st may really change this team. Then again, experience tells us that expecting best possible results from draft picks is .... well you can list 20 or so that we have had go nowhere ... Hodgson, Schroeder, Jensen, Grabner ... etc. Hell Hodgson was ranked as the best prospect not in the NHL at one point (IIRC).

 

[F A N]

A full blown rebuild often requires moving your best players out even if they are still in the prime of their careers. That is not an easy thing to do. For one thing your older guys are only a few years away from retirement and might just want to stick around and even then you might get a late 1st+ for them and the draft pick you got and prospect you got might not turn into an contributing player. The real asset is moving the mid to late 20s guys but even here most are reluctant to move Tanev. But in a full blown rebuild where you are years away you should move him just like the Canucks should have moved Edler. But of course there is no guarantee of success even when you make an excellent trades like Flyers trading Carter and Richards.

 

[Egghead1999]

Exactly, leafs moved their top 2 players.
Team shall only do a "full blown rebuild" when there are generational talents in the draft. No pt to trade your top players away when the #1 prospect is Phil Kessel.

 

[Intangibos]

Because either GMs are too stupid to recognize that they need one (like Benning), or ownership is too stupid to recognize that they need one even though management seems to think so (Aquilini/Gillis)

GMs are concerned with their jobs, and ownership is concerned with short term profit and the fear of ending up like Edmonton with years of zero playoff revenue.

 

[Fatass]

Because either GMs are too stupid to recognize that they need one (like Benning), or ownership is too stupid to recognize that they need one even though management seems to think so (Aquilini/Gillis)

GMs are concerned with their jobs, and ownership is concerned with short term profit and the fear of ending up like Edmonton with years of zero playoff revenue.

You hit the nail on the head. Can we do a full rebuild with the Twins and Edler still here?

 

[saskganesh]

I've been a hockey fan for about 40 years. I can say that rebuilding is tricky and I have seen more rebuilds fail than be totally successful. Many rebuilds take 2 or even 3 stages ala "Rebuild the rebuild of the rebuild". A lot of time the rebuild just takes the team from the bottom to the middle of the pack: I can think of the current Tavares'-led Islanders as an example of that.

Full blown rebuilding can destroy careers of both players and management alike as well as inflict mortal wounds on franchises. They are not fun, unless you enjoy years of pain. Without the benefit of hindsight, rebuilds can be ****ing dangerous. I think you only go "full blown" when you have no other choice.

Be careful what you wish for.

 

[Hollywood Burrows]

The only reason it doesn't happen more often is that NHL GMs and owners are stupid. That's it.

The way the NHL is structured requires you to tank. It's the only way to build a cup contender. Teams that convince themselves otherwise are wrong.

 

[PM]

You hit the nail on the head. Can we do a full rebuild with the Twins and Edler still here?

Why couldn't we? We are still a bottom-3 team with them here.

 

[Bad News Benning]

How often do stars get traded these days? How often do players reach free agency in their primes? Hardly ever. Landscape has changed significantly over the past 15 years. Most star players are signed long term right away and most teams would rather recycle coaches than trade it's best player. The best you can get on the free agent market is 30 year old complimentary wingers and 2nd pairing defenseman.

So the problem is how does a team acquire star players when two of the avenues are pretty much closed? It pretty much limits you to the draft. The best odds of finding a star player is at the top of the draft which is why tanks are so appealing.

What other options are there but to tank? Bravo if you can build a legit contender without the help of a tank/franchise player but it's nearly impossible to do in today's nhl.