Who would you pick after Dahlin/Svechnikov/Zadina are gone?

[NickH8]

How many 5'9, 5'10 defenseman in the NHL are elitte?
Here are the leading scorers of the 5'10 and under defensemen.
Krug - 57 points
Barrie - 55 points
Butcher - 40 points
Spurgeon - 37 points
Vatanan - 31 points
Ellis - 19 points
Girard - 22 points
Russell - 21 points
Other guys include Hunt, Grzelcyk, Carrick, Stecher, Wideman, Biega, Mete, Enstrom, Aho, Warsofsky, Hicketts, Murphy and Ness.



How many of those guys would you draft at 3rd overall or in the top 5, even?

Also Ryan Ellis has put up 28 points in 39 games, don't know where you got the 19 points.

 

[cjm502]

I have never followed an undrafted prospect as much as Hughes, he is so damn good. His poise with the puck has got to be the best in the 2018 draft, and his decision making is instantaneous. Such a fun player to watch.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Definitely went with Adam Boqvist.

 

[Henkka]

I have never followed an undrafted prospect as much as Hughes, he is so damn good. His poise with the puck has got to be the best in the 2018 draft, and his decision making is instantaneous. Such a fun player to watch.

Have you seen equally the other defencemen?

So his poise and decision making is better than Rasmus Dahlin has?

 

[Henkka]

I would draft these 5'10-5'11 defenceman with the Vegas pick (~23-27 overall). Some small and skilled defencemen are typical 1st round picks who'll drop. There's just so many options to pick for.

~18 of the players in TOP40 ranks are defencemen and this could be the greatest class of defencemen ever. You don't have to pick the TOP3 guy of the ranks to still have a great chance to get a special guy. That's what makes this draft so interesting in our case.

Especially if we win the 2nd or 3rd overall, the draft tactic couldn't be more crystal clear.

2nd or 3rd overall - Svechnikov or Zadina

Vegas 1st rounder - skill defenceman.

You could also bomb defencemen with those early 2nd rounders (~33rd overall and ~35 overall).

 

[cjm502]

Have you seen equally the other defencemen?

So his poise and decision making is better than Rasmus Dahlin has?

I already answered your first question in the quoted post, and while I believe Hughes does have better puck poise than Dahlin, quick decision making does not necessarily mean better. Dahlin is obviously superior to every player in this draft but I think Hughes carries the puck more naturally and is more creative in the offensive zone.

 

[Ezekial]

My d rank
Boqvist
Bouchard
Hughes
Dobson

Although I do like Dobson a lot.

 

[DetroitRed]

I think Tkachuk is the guy who a lot of teams would go with if drafting fourth in your scenario. If we're actually talking about the Wings drafting fourth, then in that situation, they may try to address their greatest need by drafting a defender instead. If that's the case, then it's kind of like you're asking which defender do we think will go second this year. That may not be the same as asking which defender do we think ranks second... And I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the undersized guys get passed over and fall a little, like it or not. That would work out in the favor of the Wings if they draft 6-8.

 

[SantosHalper]

Bouchard, a total package. Cholowski-Bouchard looks great on paper atleast.

 

[waltdetroit]

I irrationally think Tkachuk is the next Shane Doane

 

[Henkka]

Interesting stuff.

 

[Redder Winger]

Boqvist is 5'11. Subban, Doughty, Karlsson, and Letand are 6'0. I have a hard time believing that one inch would make a massive difference.

I can see the concern with Hughes though, and you guys have kind of swayed me towards picking Bouchard over him, but I still think Boqvist would be my first choice.

It's still early for me to say. I've not actually watched Bouchard, Dobson or Boqvist.
The only D i've watched is Hughes.
He's impressive, at times, at Michigan.
He was unimpressive in the WJC.

But every single one of the D beyond Dahlin has some tough questions about his game.
On top of that, high ranking D are always tougher to peg in the draft.

In many ways, after Dahlin, I think this draft is worse than last year's top 10.

 

[NickH8]

It's still early for me to say. I've not actually watched Bouchard, Dobson or Boqvist.
The only D i've watched is Hughes.
He's impressive, at times, at Michigan.
He was unimpressive in the WJC.

But every single one of the D beyond Dahlin has some tough questions about his game.
On top of that, high ranking D are always tougher to peg in the draft.

In many ways, after Dahlin, I think this draft is worse than last year's top 10.

On one hand I'm happy that this draft allows us to fulf a serious need. On the other hand I am a tad nervous. Defensemen are always hit or miss, and given our history developing d I'm cautiously optimistic. We're going to have to take a shot on a defenseman in the first round eventually though, and I guess this is the draft to do it.

 

[Henkka]

This belongs in here.

Ranking from end of January.

 

[NickH8]

This belongs in here.

Ranking from end of January.

McKenzie's rankings are usually rather accurate to how the NHL scouts see it, so I tend to put a lot of stock in his rankings. He definitely has some insider info that goes into his rankings. He does support Boqvist and Hughes over Bouchard.

 

[Ulysses31]

if wings took tkachuk it would be fun. talented, gritty, competitive winger to cement wings new identity.

 

[Frk It]

On one hand I'm happy that this draft allows us to fulf a serious need. On the other hand I am a tad nervous. Defensemen are always hit or miss, and given our history developing d I'm cautiously optimistic. We're going to have to take a shot on a defenseman in the first round eventually though, and I guess this is the draft to do it.

Right , you can’t keep drafting forwards high just because that’s what you are more comfortable doing. Forwards are always safer. With how many picks we have we should take some risks this year.

 

[jkutswings]

Interesting stuff.

I'm suddenly a lot more comfortable with including Hughes in that first group of (post-Dahlin) defensemen. Had no idea his skating was that fluid.

 

[Marky9er]

Interesting stuff.

Thanks for sharing. Didn't realize Boqvist was 10 months younger.

The Svechnikov versus Zadina video was good too.

 

[TheMule93]

delete

 

[lilidk]

looks like we have:
1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Boqvist
5.Bouchard
so far

 

[Ulysses31]

Think Tkachuk is at least as good at his bro in Calgary think a safe pick with decently high upside (tkachuk senior).

Imagine Tkachuk-Rasmussen-Mantha
Bertuzzi-Larkin-Svechnikov

Thats a big/gritty yet skilled top 6

 

[Redder Winger]

Interesting stuff.

Hard to understand.
But interesting.
Given the age (10 months difference -- and potential to grow to over 6'0) I wonder if that gives Boqvist the nod.

 

[Henkka]

Hard to understand.
But interesting.
Given the age (10 months difference -- and potential to grow to over 6'0) I wonder if that gives Boqvist the nod.

The age-thing is one that really matters. Also, I would took any of the RhDs before Hughes, even though Hughes would be marginally more talented than Boqvist, Dobson, or Bouchard. There is just so much equal options to choose for at this year at our pick range. This is really an exceptional draft.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...gular-season-rankings.2471469/#post-143835167

Here is very interesting analysis with numeric values about a player levels. I'm a math guy and love this study. I use this as an example for my draft tactic.

LhD Dahlin 114.15 points (6'2)
------------- talent drop
RhD Boqvist 78.07 (5'11)
RhD Dobson 77.34 (6'3)
LhD Hughes 74.28 (5'10)
RhD Bouchard 73.28 (6'2)
------------ talent drop
LhD Ty Smith 67.82 (5'10)
RhD Bode Wilde 65.67 (6'2)
RhD Ryan Merkley 64.58. (5'11)

You could go BPA on that group from Boqvist to Bouchard, but let's say, if we are picking at 8th and Dahlin + 4 forwards (Svech+Zadi+Tkach+Wahls) + Boqvist and Dobson are gone. Do you you pick Hughes instead of Bouchard?

At this early, we have to think a need already at this level. We have already good skating and 1st pass offensive defenceman maturing in Cholowski. Not probably as talented Hughes, but we have him already. We don't have a total future hole in the roster on the LhD side.

But we don't have a great PP quarterback with a booming shot. Hughes doesn't offer that either. Either does Cholowski, or Hronek. Both are 2nd PP level of guys. We have a bunch of lefties at forward core, so the Right-handed PP-point defenceman is cruicial need to have, to have a good mix of handnesses. A key to have a Stanley Cup -level dynamic power-play.

I would not hesitate to pick Bouchard on this case, even tough my hypothetical basic ranking value on the draft would say Hughes is overall better (74.xx rank vs. 73.xx rank). When it's a marginal difference, I would go with the need in this kind of same-value group or pair. Imo, it's stupid to go with BPA on this case. Absolutely stupid. Your cornerstones has to fit on the current kid core. And our needs doesn't match with Hughes.

I would take him, if all righties of the group Bouchard, Dobson and Boqvist are off the board, of course. The next comparable in line is also small-sized lefty Ty Smith, and Hughes is much more talented than him. It's an easy pick on that case. Bode Wilde would offer a bigger righty again, but then the talent-difference is too high, the reach would be too far and you go with BPA.

One thing what I'm also concerned about Hughes, is his lack of goal-scoring. Boqvist, Dobson and Bouchard all have great shots and have scored lot of goals as defenceman. We need defencemen who can also score, not just guys who throw the puck in net. We need guys whose shots are meant to go in like Lidstrom's blasts. Then it will be art again, Bouchard blast behind a Rasmussen screen. Brilliant.

 

[Dotter]

The age-thing is one that really matters. Also, I would took any of the RhDs before Hughes, even though Hughes would be marginally more talented than Boqvist, Dobson, or Bouchard. There is just so much equal options to choose for at this year at our pick range. This is really an exceptional draft.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...gular-season-rankings.2471469/#post-143835167

Here is very interesting analysis with numeric values about a player levels. I'm a math guy and love this study. I use this as an example for my draft tactic.

LhD Dahlin 114.15 points (6'2)
------------- talent drop
RhD Boqvist 78.07 (5'11)
RhD Dobson 77.34 (6'3)
LhD Hughes 74.28 (5'10)
RhD Bouchard 73.28 (6'2)
------------ talent drop
LhD Ty Smith 67.82 (5'10)
RhD Bode Wilde 65.67 (6'2)
RhD Ryan Merkley 64.58. (5'11)

You could go BPA on that group from Boqvist to Bouchard, but let's say, if we are picking at 8th and Dahlin + 4 forwards (Svech+Zadi+Tkach+Wahls) + Boqvist and Dobson are gone. Do you you pick Hughes instead of Bouchard?

At this early, we have to think a need already at this level. We have already good skating and 1st pass offensive defenceman maturing in Cholowski. Not probably as talented Hughes, but we have him already. We don't have a total future hole in the roster on the LhD side.

But we don't have a great PP quarterback with a booming shot. Hughes doesn't offer that either. Either does Cholowski, or Hronek. Both are 2nd PP level of guys. We have a bunch of lefties at forward core, so the Right-handed PP-point defenceman is cruicial need to have, to have a good mix of handnesses. A key to have a Stanley Cup -level dynamic power-play.

I would not hesitate to pick Bouchard on this case, even tough my hypothetical basic ranking value on the draft would say Hughes is overall better (74.xx rank vs. 73.xx rank). When it's a marginal difference, I would go with the need in this kind of same-value group or pair. Imo, it's stupid to go with BPA on this case. Absolutely stupid. Your cornerstones has to fit on the current kid core. And our needs doesn't match with Hughes.

I would take him, if all righties of the group Bouchard, Dobson and Boqvist are off the board, of course. The next comparable in line is also small-sized lefty Ty Smith, and Hughes is much more talented than him. It's an easy pick on that case. Bode Wilde would offer a bigger righty again, but then the talent-difference is too high, the reach would be too far and you go with BPA.

One thing what I'm also concerned about Hughes, is his lack of goal-scoring. Boqvist, Dobson and Bouchard all have great shots and have scored lot of goals as defenceman. We need defencemen who can also score, not just guys who throw the puck in net. We need guys whose shots are meant to go in like Lidstrom's blasts. Then it will be art again, Bouchard blast behind a Rasmussen screen. Brilliant.

Well thought out post. I really appriciate your input.