Who wants to tank?

[Xerloris]

Winning Culture is learning to win over an 82 game schedule, while not playing your best hockey until the playoffs and slowing turning it up in March, April, and than really running in May.... That is a winning culture, knowing how to turn it up to get 2 points, when being dominated in a game. How you can go 80% and still win a game...

I would like to add that I think the front office and coaching staff have a lot to do with a winning culture as well. Putting player in a position to succeed Willing to spend to the cap to get the players your team needs, learning how to not let a losing streak ruin your entire season. Those types of things help build a winning culture.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Re: selling at the deadline - I hope everyone recognizes that if this team is in playoff contention going into the trade deadline, we're not selling. We may not be buying, anyone who goes is likely going to be "really expendable" which translates to "get anything you can for them" but we're not going to cut every impending UFA loose. After the early part of March and that EC trip and the first home game back vs. LA, the rest of the schedule currently looks favorable and it's 10 home games in the final 16. It would be 2021 all over again, where it's "we need the revenue from those 2 guaranteed home playoff games" and long-term focus gets sacrificed for short-term gain.

There is precedent for Armstrong to sell from a playoff position. But the expiring rentals are not much value this season.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

There is precedent for Armstrong to sell from a playoff position. But the expiring rentals are not much value this season.

Armstrong has sold twice with the team near a playoff spot:

1. 2017, when he finally shipped Shattenkirk to Washington after reportedly having multiple offers earlier in the season but letting teams talk to Shattenkirk first, and them all balking when Shattenkirk said he was going to free agency. The Blues were 8th in the West, on a 3-game losing streak and in the same spot they were in when Hitchcock was shitcanned 4 weeks prior, again showing signs they'd drift out; Shattenkirk getting dealt (after DA let Backes et. al. walk for nothing after 2016) was the league's worst-kept secret. [After 2 more losses, the Blues would close the season 15-2-2 - something that wasn't remotely expected when Shattenkirk got shipped out.]

2. 2018, when he shipped Stastny to Winnipeg. The Blues had gone from 4th in the West on February 9 to 9th in the West, a point back of Calgary, courtesy of an 0-5-1 streak, that brought their record since December 10 (when they were atop the West and tied with Tampa for 1st in the league on points) to 13-18-2, and were showing zero signs of getting their shit together.

The one, more recent time, he didn't? That would be 2021, when the Blues were wildly inconsistent all season (kind of like this season) but won 3 games right before the trade deadline. Armstrong seized on it as a reason to believe in the team and keep everyone together instead of dealing Schwartz et. al. knowing they were going to walk at season's end, while specifically citing the need for the revenue from at least 2 guaranteed home games if the team made the playoffs.

Oh, but that was the shortened COVID year, that playoff revenue really was important! Yeah, the revenue from those 9,000 playoff tickets sold was really make-or-break for the franchise. [Cue the post from @PocketNines about Armstrong carefully preserving - nay, enhancing - the team's franchise value with those two playoff games.] More important than looking long-term at where the roster was and realizing a rebuild was needed soon, and that it was a golden chance to get assets to help with that.

 

[Blueston]

Armstrong has sold twice with the team near a playoff spot:

1. 2017, when he finally shipped Shattenkirk to Washington after reportedly having multiple offers earlier in the season but letting teams talk to Shattenkirk first, and them all balking when Shattenkirk said he was going to free agency. The Blues were 8th in the West, on a 3-game losing streak and in the same spot they were in when Hitchcock was shitcanned 4 weeks prior, again showing signs they'd drift out; Shattenkirk getting dealt (after DA let Backes et. al. walk for nothing after 2016) was the league's worst-kept secret. [After 2 more losses, the Blues would close the season 15-2-2 - something that wasn't remotely expected when Shattenkirk got shipped out.]

2. 2018, when he shipped Stastny to Winnipeg. The Blues had gone from 4th in the West on February 9 to 9th in the West, a point back of Calgary, courtesy of an 0-5-1 streak, that brought their record since December 10 (when they were atop the West and tied with Tampa for 1st in the league on points) to 13-18-2, and were showing zero signs of getting their shit together.

The one, more recent time, he didn't? That would be 2021, when the Blues were wildly inconsistent all season (kind of like this season) but won 3 games right before the trade deadline. Armstrong seized on it as a reason to believe in the team and keep everyone together instead of dealing Schwartz et. al. knowing they were going to walk at season's end, while specifically citing the need for the revenue from at least 2 guaranteed home games if the team made the playoffs.

Oh, but that was the shortened COVID year, that playoff revenue really was important! Yeah, the revenue from those 9,000 playoff tickets sold was really make-or-break for the franchise. [Cue the post from @PocketNines about Armstrong carefully preserving - nay, enhancing - the team's franchise value with those two playoff games.] More important than looking long-term at where the roster was and realizing a rebuild was needed soon, and that it was a golden chance to get assets to help with that.

but the common thread in these is that Army assessed whether he thought team could do damage and sold if he could get value and thought team couldn't win. honestly, this year's walk guys are so mid i don't think it matters whether we sell or not.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Armstrong has sold twice with the team near a playoff spot:

1. 2017, when he finally shipped Shattenkirk to Washington after reportedly having multiple offers earlier in the season but letting teams talk to Shattenkirk first, and them all balking when Shattenkirk said he was going to free agency. The Blues were 8th in the West, on a 3-game losing streak and in the same spot they were in when Hitchcock was shitcanned 4 weeks prior, again showing signs they'd drift out; Shattenkirk getting dealt (after DA let Backes et. al. walk for nothing after 2016) was the league's worst-kept secret. [After 2 more losses, the Blues would close the season 15-2-2 - something that wasn't remotely expected when Shattenkirk got shipped out.]

2. 2018, when he shipped Stastny to Winnipeg. The Blues had gone from 4th in the West on February 9 to 9th in the West, a point back of Calgary, courtesy of an 0-5-1 streak, that brought their record since December 10 (when they were atop the West and tied with Tampa for 1st in the league on points) to 13-18-2, and were showing zero signs of getting their shit together.

The one, more recent time, he didn't? That would be 2021, when the Blues were wildly inconsistent all season (kind of like this season) but won 3 games right before the trade deadline. Armstrong seized on it as a reason to believe in the team and keep everyone together instead of dealing Schwartz et. al. knowing they were going to walk at season's end, while specifically citing the need for the revenue from at least 2 guaranteed home games if the team made the playoffs.

Oh, but that was the shortened COVID year, that playoff revenue really was important! Yeah, the revenue from those 9,000 playoff tickets sold was really make-or-break for the franchise. [Cue the post from @PocketNines about Armstrong carefully preserving - nay, enhancing - the team's franchise value with those two playoff games.] More important than looking long-term at where the roster was and realizing a rebuild was needed soon, and that it was a golden chance to get assets to help with that.

In 2021 he had a proven Cup-winning core that had a disappointing regular season. I don’t really have a problem with him going in for the playoff run that year.

Contrast with now when he has ALREADY traded off the veteran players and openly talked about expecting to compete to be average. Why wouldn’t we expect him to be freer about trading at the deadline with the longer course in view. If he doesn’t, I don’t think it will mean he was betting on this postseason. I’d take it to mean the worthwhile deal just want there.

 

[Brian39]

The one, more recent time, he didn't? That would be 2021, when the Blues were wildly inconsistent all season (kind of like this season) but won 3 games right before the trade deadline. Armstrong seized on it as a reason to believe in the team and keep everyone together instead of dealing Schwartz et. al. knowing they were going to walk at season's end,

Jaden Schwartz had a 15 team no trade list in 2021 and was having an abysmal season following the death of his father. He had 2 goals and 11 points through 23 games before breaking his hand in February and then had 0 goals and 3 points in his first 10 games back from injury, which got us to April 7th (the trade deadline was April 12th). So 5 days out of the deadline, he had a whopping 2 goals and 14 points in 33 games.

Additionally, after he wound up in Seattle, JR reported about just how hard the COVID restrictions were on Schwartz due to the passing of his father and indicated that Schwartz considered not even playing that season. Odds are pretty damn good that he made it crystal clear that he would take a leave of absence to be with his family rather than going to a brand new city with no personal ties.

Acting like Schwartz wasn't traded for financial reasons is absurd. He was a shell of his usual self (for good reason) and very clearly wouldn't have had any interest in going to a new organization mid-season.

while specifically citing the need for the revenue from at least 2 guaranteed home games if the team made the playoffs.

I'd love that citation. My recollection is that he talked about the Blues Cup window still being open because the team showed a competitive fire even in losses that wasn't there on past inconsistent Blues teams. I remember him talking about being able to win, not about getting playoff revenue. My hunch is that playoff revenue was important to the team, but my memory is that this part was very much left unsaid (as it almost always is in pro sports. I'd love a source that he was specifically citing that need for revenue.

Oh, but that was the shortened COVID year, that playoff revenue really was important! Yeah, the revenue from those 9,000 playoff tickets sold was really make-or-break for the franchise. [Cue the post from @PocketNines about Armstrong carefully preserving - nay, enhancing - the team's franchise value with those two playoff games.] More important than looking long-term at where the roster was and realizing a rebuild was needed soon, and that it was a golden chance to get assets to help with that.

The financial realities in 2021 aren't remotely comparable to the financial realities of today for the Blues organization. It was confirmed by JR that the Blues took out sizeable loans in order to pay all of the bills in 2021. Our public-facing chairman has a business that took massive losses during COVID. I don't know what to tell you if you think the concern about playoff revenue in 2021 would be about long-term franchise valuation and not minimizing the massive financial bleeding of the 2021 season.

We also had a core that had actually proven themselves as winners. We won the Cup in 2019 and were leading the West when COVID shut the league down in 2020. We can talk a ton about the missteps and regressions since then, but the front office very obviously viewed the core group through 40 games in 2021 differently than today's core group that finished well shy of the playoffs and triggered a deadline fire sale last season.

If we're contextualizing the 3 deadlines you discuss, the Blues organization today is much, much, much more similar to the landscape in 2017 and 2018 than 2021. The state of the core is much closer to the 'core in transition' that we had in the 2017 and 2018 seasons than the 2021 core and the need for money is far less than it was in 2021.

The Blues very well might not sell at the deadline if we are in playoff position, but acting like that is obvious is insane to me.

 

[TurgPavs]

At the end of the day, ask your self, if the current Blues Team could beat a line up of the guys either traded who Army has let go, since the cup.

Could the current Blues Team beat:
The Outcast Blues
Perron/ROR/Barbi
Schwartz/Fabbri/Tarasenko
Kostin/Accari/Sanford
Piltick/Joshua/Maroon

Petro/Dunn
Eddy/Walman
Mikkola/Bortz

Allen-Husso

And remember, out of all those guys that are now gone, the only players that the Blues received who are playing in the NHL is Leddy and Faulk.

I think this team of ex-Blues would physically beat the living hell out of the current Blues line up.

 

[PJJJP]

At the end of the day, ask your self, if the current Blues Team could beat a line up of the guys either traded who Army has let go, since the cup.

Could the current Blues Team beat:
The Outcast Blues
Perron/ROR/Barbi
Schwartz/Fabbri/Tarasenko
Kostin/Accari/Sanford
Piltick/Joshua/Maroon

Petro/Dunn
Eddy/Walman
Mikkola/Bortz

Allen-Husso

And remember, out of all those guys that are now gone, the only players that the Blues received who are playing in the NHL is Leddy and Faulk.

I think this team of ex-Blues would physically beat the living hell out of the current Blues line up.

I mean ROR/Tarasenko/Barbie/Mikkola/Accari were all traded for futures so it will take a while for the prospects to play in the NHL. Schwartz left and has been very injury prone. Perron has been decent for the wings. Fabbri has been injury prone. Edmundson is meh. Kostin hasn't shown much outside a 20 game streak with the Oilers. Sanford is forgettable. The 4th line other than Maroon doesn't much much success. The big misses were Petro walking, Dunn chosen in the expansion draft, and Walman. To be fair I don't think anyone saw him breaking out. Husso has been trash and Allen has been Allen.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Jaden Schwartz had a 15 team no trade list in 2021 and was having an abysmal season following the death of his father. He had 2 goals and 11 points through 23 games before breaking his hand in February and then had 0 goals and 3 points in his first 10 games back from injury, which got us to April 7th (the trade deadline was April 12th). So 5 days out of the deadline, he had a whopping 2 goals and 14 points in 33 games.

Additionally, after he wound up in Seattle, JR reported about just how hard the COVID restrictions were on Schwartz due to the passing of his father and indicated that Schwartz considered not even playing that season. Odds are pretty damn good that he made it crystal clear that he would take a leave of absence to be with his family rather than going to a brand new city with no personal ties.

Huh, then I guess that would have been on Schwartz. Never stopped Armstrong from shipping guys out who wanted to stay here, who didn't want to go elsewhere, but I guess Schwartz was a special case because of how much he really, really sucked - as opposed to merely sucking like Berglund did before he got shipped out.

Acting like Schwartz wasn't traded for financial reasons is absurd. He was a shell of his usual self (for good reason) and very clearly wouldn't have had any interest in going to a new organization mid-season.

And yet, Tarasenko was "a shell of his usual self" and we managed to trade him. Weird.

Oh, yeah - that's because Tarasenko wanted to go to New York, while Schwartz was apparently willing to be unprofessional and sit at home. Forgot about that.

I'd love that citation. My recollection is that he talked about the Blues Cup window still being open because the team showed a competitive fire even in losses that wasn't there on past inconsistent Blues teams. I remember him talking about being able to win, not about getting playoff revenue. My hunch is that playoff revenue was important to the team, but my memory is that this part was very much left unsaid (as it almost always is in pro sports. I'd love a source that he was specifically citing that need for revenue.

I remember dumb shit from time to time, and that comment sticks with me because of its specificity. Just like I specifically remember Armstrong's "I'll trade someone from this core before I fire another head coach" comment when he fired Hitchcock for Yeo ... which, he still hadn't done when he fired Yeo for Berube. [Unless for some weird reason, the 3rd-liner Patrik Berglund was a core player.] I'll eventually find it again, unless someone else beats me to it.

The financial realities in 2021 aren't remotely comparable to the financial realities of today for the Blues organization. It was confirmed by JR that the Blues took out sizeable loans in order to pay all of the bills in 2021. Our public-facing chairman has a business that took massive losses during COVID. I don't know what to tell you if you think the concern about playoff revenue in 2021 would be about long-term franchise valuation and not minimizing the massive financial bleeding of the 2021 season.

Again, cue @PocketNines comment on Armstrong saving - nay, enhancing - the value of his franchise and how that makes him so invaluable to the team.

We also had a core that had actually proven themselves as winners.

Before 2019? No, it hadn't.
From 2019 forward? Is this some perpetual "you're a winner card" getting handed out? Or are we being (really) selective about who it applies to and when, and why?

We won the Cup in 2019 and were leading the West when COVID shut the league down in 2020. We can talk a ton about the missteps and regressions since then, but the front office very obviously viewed the core group through 40 games in 2021 differently than today's core group that finished well shy of the playoffs and triggered a deadline fire sale last season.

Maybe that [how the core group was viewed through 40 games in 2021] was a problem. Maybe the front office viewed that core that "had actually proven themselves as winners" as no longer being such winners, to the point it decided its unequivocal 1D could walk out the door and we'd replace it with a (real, not imagined) PP specialist.

Working out great, though. We won a series in 2022, Vegas didn't. Didn't even make the playoffs. Reminds me of how trading Oshie was viewed around here as a huge win as late as April, 2018 because we went to the WCF in 2016 (and then Brouwer walked as a UFA ... and Copley would later get dealt back in the Shattenkirk trade) and the Caps still didn't win anything ... and then they did, and people tried to write it off as yeah, well, Oshie was no big deal for them so ignore that, we still won that trade.

If we're contextualizing the 3 deadlines you discuss, the Blues organization today is much, much, much more similar to the landscape in 2017 and 2018 than 2021. The state of the core is much closer to the 'core in transition' that we had in the 2017 and 2018 seasons than the 2021 core and the need for money is far less than it was in 2021.

The Blues very well might not sell at the deadline if we are in playoff position, but acting like that is obvious is insane to me.

1. It's obvious right now. Sorry it's going to take ~35 more games for it to become obvious to you.
2. Is the Blues organization like it was in 2017 and 2018? Yes ... and no. Yes, because it's in flux with a bunch of pieces that don't fit and a weird mix of older players and younger players. No, because you can't look at this team and say "well, the guts are there, add a piece or two and they could be Cup contenders." And, we have a solid goalie and not a headcase who you're hoping gets hot at the right time and doesn't flake out. And, the near-term trend for this team is down and not up. And, there's a whole lot more hope for the future tied to kids who haven't played their first professional hockey game. And, we have a GM who thinks because he lucked into a Cup, he really is the smartest person in the room and what he does really works and ownership will go die on all the hills before it cuts him loose.

 

[Drubilly]

Hope you're all taking notes like I am!!!!!!!!! Can't wait to graduate from Insufferable Internet Jackass Junior College and hopefully beat Pocket Neiner Hoffman to that NHL GM job!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[TK 421]

Ted when I read your posts you're way over dramatic with a Scottish accent.

"THE SHIP CAN"T TAKE MUCH MORE OF THIS CAPTAIN!!! YUV GOT TA FIRE ARMSTRONG NOW IF WE'RE TO STOP KHAN AND SAVE THE ENTERPRISE FROM BEING RENAMED SOMETHING GERMAN!".

 

[Mike Liut]

At this point, tanking is a must. If we don’t add more top end talent to the pool, we’ll be stuck as a bubble/ lotto team for as far as the eyes can see. I think we are on the right track, it’s just going to take a 2 more top 10 picks and trading off Buch for a haul.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

At the end of the day, ask your self, if the current Blues Team could beat a line up of the guys either traded who Army has let go, since the cup.

Could the current Blues Team beat:
The Outcast Blues
Perron/ROR/Barbi
Schwartz/Fabbri/Tarasenko
Kostin/Accari/Sanford
Piltick/Joshua/Maroon

Petro/Dunn
Eddy/Walman
Mikkola/Bortz

Allen-Husso

And remember, out of all those guys that are now gone, the only players that the Blues received who are playing in the NHL is Leddy and Faulk.

I think this team of ex-Blues would physically beat the living hell out of the current Blues line up.

That bottom 6 is utterly awful, Kostin/Acciari/Pitlick/Sanford have combined for 10pts this year.

Both goalies are sieves.

Fabbri hasn't played center in the NHL outside of the 20-21 season(where Detroit was one of the league leaders in man games lost to Covid protocol). He's also missed almost 50% of games in the past 3+ seasons.

The current roster isn't all that great, but outside of a few players, that ex-Blues roster is worse.

 

[Chojin]

I don't want to tank like Chicago did when they jettisoned anyone and everyone with the intention of being as bad as possible. There are just too many examples of teams doing that and struggling to regain relevance. I am comfortable parting with useful players (making the team worse in the process) when it makes sense for other reasons like another team overpaying during their championship window.

 

[TurgPavs]

That bottom 6 is utterly awful, Kostin/Acciari/Pitlick/Sanford have combined for 10pts this year.

Both goalies are sieves.

Fabbri hasn't played center in the NHL outside of the 20-21 season(where Detroit was one of the league leaders in man games lost to Covid protocol). He's also missed almost 50% of games in the past 3+ seasons.

The current roster isn't all that great, but outside of a few players, that ex-Blues roster is worse.

Heading into tonight's game
Those Ex-Blues have 187 points combined between them, 18 skaters
All current Blues combined 200, 22 skaters

That line up of ex Blues has roughly 12 million less in cap hit.

Neither is going to put your team in the playoffs and the only thing that makes the current Blues even palatable is the futures, prospects, and picks they received from the trades. But those are all TBD if they even pan out.

Again I would build around Thomas and Neighbours, see if CP wants to stick around for a 3+ year rebuild, and move out everyone else.

 

[Blueston]

I don't want to tank like Chicago did when they jettisoned anyone and everyone with the intention of being as bad as possible. There are just too many examples of teams doing that and struggling to regain relevance. I am comfortable parting with useful players (making the team worse in the process) when it makes sense for other reasons like another team overpaying during their championship window.

Agree all around.

 

[Mike Liut]

I don't want to tank like Chicago did when they jettisoned anyone and everyone with the intention of being as bad as possible. There are just too many examples of teams doing that and struggling to regain relevance. I am comfortable parting with useful players (making the team worse in the process) when it makes sense for other reasons like another team overpaying during their championship window.

the hard part is there just isn’t a perfect recipe. We just have to get lucky and hit on our draft picks

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Heading into tonight's game
Those Ex-Blues have 187 points combined between them, 18 skaters
All current Blues combined 200, 22 skaters

That line up of ex Blues has roughly 12 million less in cap hit.

Neither is going to put your team in the playoffs and the only thing that makes the current Blues even palatable is the futures, prospects, and picks they received from the trades. But those are all TBD if they even pan out.

Again I would build around Thomas and Neighbours, see if CP wants to stick around for a 3+ year rebuild, and move out everyone else.

You asked if the current Blues roster would beat this ex-Blues roster. I gave reasons as to why the current roster would, simple as that.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

One of those sieves beat us tonight 6-4 behind a defense that's not as good as the ex-Blues defense listed above (which is probably comparable to our Blues defense all things considered), and Dizee's favorite goalie isn't listed in that ex-Blues tandem.

 

[BlueDream]

Ted when I read your posts you're way over dramatic with a Scottish accent.

"THE SHIP CAN"T TAKE MUCH MORE OF THIS CAPTAIN!!! YUV GOT TA FIRE ARMSTRONG NOW IF WE'RE TO STOP KHAN AND SAVE THE ENTERPRISE FROM BEING RENAMED SOMETHING GERMAN!".

Unfortunately I lost the ability to like posts but this post is still making me chuckle days later.