Prospect Info: Who is the Blues #5 Prospect - 2023

[Majorityof1]

Everybody who is voting for Neighbours says its because he is futher along in his development, or closer to NHL ready. But he is 3 years older, and drafted 3 years ealier than Stenberg (1 in Dean's case). Do you all not take age into account? Neighbours should be further along, significantly. That doesn't mean he is a better prospect (unless you think it does, I guess, you can vote how you like).

 

[Reality Czech]

I guess Jake Neighbours gets the Rodney Dangerfield no respect award for these polls.

 

[sfvega]

Neighbours is further along, but Stenberg is the more talented prospect. But to think a couple years ago that this is the argument for our 5th best is crazy.

 

[Majorityof1]

I guess Jake Neighbours gets the Rodney Dangerfield no respect award for these polls.

Neighbours is holding his own in this poll against a 1st round pick who was drafted 1 spot higher in a much, much stronger draft. He is handily in the lead over another 1st round pick coming off of a monster CHL playoff season.

Personally, I think Neighbour's is getting too much respect.

 

[Blueston]

Everybody who is voting for Neighbours says its because he is futher along in his development, or closer to NHL ready. But he is 3 years older, and drafted 3 years ealier than Stenberg (1 in Dean's case). Do you all not take age into account? Neighbours should be further along, significantly. That doesn't mean he is a better prospect (unless you think it does, I guess, you can vote how you like).

Neighbours was always more advanced. He made club as teenager. Bolduc didn’t. Dean didn’t in Vegas. It’s not like he is some 24 year old. He has always been advanced for his age. And he is on verge of being really good. Heck, Neighbours played in world Championship this year. So him having floor as nhl 3rd liner and upside as top 6 glue winger who can pop in some goals, a Brendan morrow type, absolutely makes him a darn good prospect.

Now maybe stenberg has more upside, but he wasn’t particularly good this year until u18s. He scored at half the rate in juniors that dvo did in same league and almost nothing in shl. I like him a lot, but this idea that he has 3rd line floor is silly.

Dean has positional advantage and may turn out to be best of bunch. But neighbours certainty is what pushes him (slightly) ahead for me.

 

[Majorityof1]

Neighbours was always more advanced. He made club as teenager. Bolduc didn’t. Dean didn’t in Vegas. It’s not like he is some 24 year old. He has always been advanced for his age. And he is on verge of being really good. Heck, Neighbours played in world Championship this year. So him having floor as nhl 3rd liner and upside as top 6 glue winger who can pop in some goals, a Brendan morrow type, absolutely makes him a darn good prospect.

Now maybe stenberg has more upside, but he wasn’t particularly good this year until u18s. He scored at half the rate in juniors that dvo did in same league and almost nothing in shl. I like him a lot, but this idea that he has 3rd line floor is silly.

Dean has positional advantage and may turn out to be best of bunch. But neighbours certainty is what pushes him (slightly) ahead for me.

I mean Stenburg was playing primarily against men and older kids U20 at 17 last year. Of course his stats weren't super impressive. You give Neighbour's credit for making the club for a few games at 19 when he clearly wasn't ready. Then you knock Stenberg for not excelling playing against men at 17.

World Championship this year was all kids and retired older guys. Rocco Grimaldi led all scoring. Perunovich played and had more points than Neighbours. Would Perunovich be in the running for 5th if he was eligible?

 

[Blueston]

I mean Stenburg was playing primarily against men and older kids U20 at 17 last year. Of course his stats weren't super impressive. You give Neighbour's credit for making the club for a few games at 19 when he clearly wasn't ready. Then you knock Stenberg for not excelling playing against men at 17.

World Championship this year was all kids and retired older guys. Rocco Grimaldi led all scoring. Perunovich played and had more points than Neighbours. Would Perunovich be in the running for 5th if he was eligible?

Stenberg played against same competition at u20 as Dvo and scored half the rate. Doesn’t mean he won’t be great but means maybe tap the breaks a bit on 3rd line floor, 1st line upside, and no doubt quality nhl player.

 

[Majorityof1]

Stenberg played against same competition at u20 as Dvo and scored half the rate. Doesn’t mean he won’t be great but means maybe tap the breaks a bit on 3rd line floor, 1st line upside, and no doubt quality nhl player.

And that's why Dvo us our #1 prospect. That's like: "do you prefer green beans or peas? I like chocolate". Of coursevtlyou like chocolate but we were talking green beans vs peas.

I never said Stenberg had a 3rd line floor. I don't have chocolate, I mean, Dvorsky with a 3rd line floor. No 17/18 year old who wasn't drafted top 3-5 should has that floor.

 

[Caser]

1) Dalibor Dvorsky - 82%
2) Jimmy Snuggerud - 93%
3) Joel Hofer - 39%
4) Zachary Bolduc - 59%

And the final prospect is added to the options: Nikita Susuyev

Sounds like Susuyev isn't the final one though:

 

[Blueston]

And that's why Dvo us our #1 prospect. That's like: "do you prefer green beans or peas? I like chocolate". Of coursevtlyou like chocolate but we were talking green beans vs peas.

I never said Stenberg had a 3rd line floor. I don't have chocolate, I mean, Dvorsky with a 3rd line floor. No 17/18 year old who wasn't drafted top 3-5 should has that floor.

exactly. But other folks have been saying that about stenberg and that is point I wanted to make. I think stenberg will be 2nd line winger. He might be first. But he could also be guy who never becomes nhl regular.

 

[Brian39]

Everybody who is voting for Neighbours says its because he is futher along in his development, or closer to NHL ready. But he is 3 years older, and drafted 3 years ealier than Stenberg (1 in Dean's case). Do you all not take age into account? Neighbours should be further along, significantly. That doesn't mean he is a better prospect (unless you think it does, I guess, you can vote how you like).

Aging and getting further along in development are not the same thing.

Tons of 1st rounders fail to ever get further along in their development after they are drafted, especially when we're talking about the guys picked after #20. Successfully progressing as a player and hitting developmental benchmarks is an accomplishment that tangibly supports the "floors" we talk about with these prospects.

Neighbours played at a 32 goal and 57 point pace in his 23 AHL games as a 20 year old and the reason he had so few games is because he also played at the level of a fringe NHLer who got into 43 NHL games. That is a tangible developmental benchmark that a hell of a lot of 1st round prospects fall short of. Doing all that at 20 offers tangible support to the 3rd line 'floor' that just doesn't exist for younger prospects.

I think dismissing actual development just because we expect it ignores how often guys we love as 17-19 year olds fail to translate their games and/or stagnate in their development as they work their way up through the pro ranks.

I get your point and I think it has a lot of merit. I have no problem with those valuing ceiling over floors. But I think there is also value in recognizing floors and Neighbours hit benchmarks demonstrating his floor that other prospects just haven't. Hitting those benchmarks is meaningful and isn't a given as prospects age.

 

[Memento]

Sounds like Susuyev isn't the final one though:

Yeah, might as well add Biakabutuka, but I don't know if he'll ever be good. From what the people here said, he really didn't impress at camp. Still a lot of time to improve, but I have my doubts.

 

[Bluesguru]

I’m going to have to start doing some ballot stuffing………..ZACH DEAN!!

 

[Celtic Note]

I think I may be the odd one out, but while I chose Stenberg as the better prospect, I could see Tyler Tucker having an "Ian Cole" type of career and play more games than some on here with a much higher ceiling

I think Tucker will be a pretty good defenseman.

 

[Majorityof1]

Aging and getting further along in development are not the same thing.

Tons of 1st rounders fail to ever get further along in their development after they are drafted, especially when we're talking about the guys picked after #20. Successfully progressing as a player and hitting developmental benchmarks is an accomplishment that tangibly supports the "floors" we talk about with these prospects.

Neighbours played at a 32 goal and 57 point pace in his 23 AHL games as a 20 year old and the reason he had so few games is because he also played at the level of a fringe NHLer who got into 43 NHL games. That is a tangible developmental benchmark that a hell of a lot of 1st round prospects fall short of. Doing all that at 20 offers tangible support to the 3rd line 'floor' that just doesn't exist for younger prospects.

I think dismissing actual development just because we expect it ignores how often guys we love as 17-19 year olds fail to translate their games and/or stagnate in their development as they work their way up through the pro ranks.

I get your point and I think it has a lot of merit. I have no problem with those valuing ceiling over floors. But I think there is also value in recognizing floors and Neighbours hit benchmarks demonstrating his floor that other prospects just haven't. Hitting those benchmarks is meaningful and isn't a given as prospects age.

I get all that. But that is not what anyone said. They only say, he is the closest to NHL ready. That is different than saying, "he is already a 4th line NHL player, has progressed along his development curve nicely, and now has a high floor because he is there". I'd disagree with that, but I can see where its coming from.

That is a more nuanced argument than "our 21 year old 2021 first round pick is more NHL ready than our 18 year old 2023 first round pick."

Development might not be straight line. But you'd still expect prospect A (21 yo, 4th line floor, 3rd line ceiling) to be further along then prospect B (18yo, 3rd line floor, 1st line cieling). But prospect B is more valuable by any definition. Even if you have a pressing need for a 4th liner, you can sign a good one fairly easily.

Now I'm not saying prospect A fits neighbours, and prospect B fits Otto. But that is what we should be discussing, not who is more NHL ready with that age gap.

I’m going to have to start doing some ballot stuffing………..ZACH DEAN!!

I'll join you next round, assuming current leader holds.

 

[Frenzy31]

I get all that. But that is not what anyone said. They only say, he is the closest to NHL ready. That is different than saying, "he is already a 4th line NHL player, has progressed along his development curve nicely, and now has a high floor because he is there". I'd disagree with that, but I can see where its coming from.

That is a more nuanced argument than "our 21 year old 2021 first round pick is more NHL ready than our 18 year old 2023 first round pick."

Development might not be straight line. But you'd still expect prospect A (21 yo, 4th line floor, 3rd line ceiling) to be further along then prospect B (18yo, 3rd line floor, 1st line cieling). But prospect B is more valuable by any definition. Even if you have a pressing need for a 4th liner, you can sign a good one fairly easily.

Now I'm not saying prospect A fits neighbours, and prospect B fits Otto. But that is what we should be discussing, not who is more NHL ready with that age gap.



I'll join you next round, assuming current leader holds.

I think it comes down to expectations. I don't see Neighbors as a 3rd line upside. He is middle six upside. Floor of a 3rd liner. He was very productive in Springfield last year and showed some flashes in the NHL. Clearly not a finished product, but looks to be a solid middle sixer. Not a top line player, but not a 4th liner either.

Is Ottos ceiling really top line? Or does he have to continue to develop perfectly to get there? I think his likely upside is 2nd liner. So while he has a higher upside, he has to develop and I think it is ok to put a guy who is closer to a finished project here.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think it comes down to expectations. I don't see Neighbors as a 3rd line upside. He is middle six upside. Floor of a 3rd liner. He was very productive in Springfield last year and showed some flashes in the NHL. Clearly not a finished product, but looks to be a solid middle sixer. Not a top line player, but not a 4th liner either.

Is Ottos ceiling really top line? Or does he have to continue to develop perfectly to get there? I think his likely upside is 2nd liner. So while he has a higher upside, he has to develop and I think it is ok to put a guy who is closer to a finished project here.

I exaggerated Otto a bit for effect. But I do think his upside is top line. Like Steen or Oshie top line. He could be a solid defensively sound 60ish point player who is the 3rd best on a competitive top line.

I disagree on Neighbouts obviously. But I respect your opinion, and thank you for elaborating. Neighbours is strong, like real strong for his age. That allowed him to push for time. But I don't see much else skill wise. Shot is just ok,. Finishing in close is bad. Playmaker in space s bad. Playmaker against the boards for some reason is really good.

I think his "success" had more to do with the Blues setting him up for success than any skill he brought. He played a lot with good lineates for someone who was barely good enough to make the team. He played 25% of his time with Schenn and his GF% saw a 10% boost with Schenn vs without. Schenn on the other hand had a 5% drop when with Neighbours. Neighbours also got significant time with Kyrou and some time with Thomas. That is not the deployment your average 3rd/4th liner should expect. Which is fine for a prospect. But he's not already a good bottom 6 option if he needs top 6 linemates to suceed.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I really like Neighbor’s motor and tenacity. I have little doubt he’ll succeed at carving out a role of value, even if he needs to transform his game a bit to do it. But I don’t see him becoming a piece you build around.

 

[Robb_K]

I missed this poll, but I had stated on The #4 Poll that I chose Bolduc only by a very thin margin over Stenberg, so I'd have voted for the latter on this one. Neighbours is next, as Robertsson isn't progressing as quickly as I had hoped. And I'll have a hard time choosing between Neighbours and Dean.