Who is better defensively?

[crab]

Simple question: Carlson or Jensen?

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[txpd]

Simple question: Carlson or Jensen?

Really? Carlson

 

[Calicaps]

Is this a joke?

 

[crab]

I agree the question is a joke but it is not.

John Carlson Doesn't Belong With The Class of Elite Defensemen.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Is this a joke?

Unfortunately, no. Some poster on main forums was claiming some Caps fans think Jensen is better defensively . Jensen is closer to being AHL than anything.

 

[AtNightWeFly]

There is nothing Jensen is better at than Carlson...in hockey.

 

[Calicaps]

I agree the question is a joke but it is not.

John Carlson Doesn't Belong With The Class of Elite Defensemen.

Unfortunately, no. Some poster on main forums was claiming some Caps fans think Jensen is better defensively . Jensen is closer to being AHL than anything.

And this warranted acknowledgement here why?

Also, Jensen is definitely not performing up to expectations so far, but AHL seems extreme.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

And this warranted acknowledgement here why?

Also, Jensen is definitely not performing up to expectations so far, but AHL seems extreme.

Not sure. I prefer the nonsense on the main forums stay there rather than the Caps forum. My guess it had to do with the poster claiming he knew Caps fans that claim Jensen was better defensively which is nobody I know here. Perhaps I'm being extreme with Jensen, however he's in the dog house although not Jeff Schultz level .

 

[SpinningEdge]

This is the most ridiculous post possibly on this board - and we’ve had some crazy posts!!!

 

[Ridley Simon]

Can we please lock this thread? Don’t need trolls from other boards littering our space with their crap.

No offense @crab. But no good can come from this.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I think this was an attempt to troll the San Jose Rooster and it worked. Lol.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think this was an attempt to troll the San Jose Rooster and it worked. Lol.

Not really. It’s like asking a family with 10 little kids “who has the better Dad? You or your ‘classmate Jimmy’???

10-0 MY Dad.

try this on the mains.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Not really. It’s like asking a family with 10 little kids “who has the better Dad? You or your ‘classmate Jimmy’???

10-0 MY Dad.

try this on the mains.

Well, it is 13-0 for Carlson.

Needless to say, the answer is obvious.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

How did Jensen have no votes, he is solid defensively. Carlson since 2016 is a pretty strong negative in xGA and GA rates while Jensen is in a positive. Just because Carlson has super high end offense doesnt mean that hes good defensively. I know Jensen has become the whipping boy for the caps because hes bad offensively but hes actually been strong defensively, unlike Carlson.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Can we please lock this thread? Don’t need trolls from other boards littering our space with their crap.

No offense @crab. But no good can come from this.

Speak of the you know who. Lol.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Jensen is better at PK. He is experienced shutdown defensman. On 5v5 I'll take Carlson anyway, he is too good.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

There is literally nothing Jensen does better than John Carlson other than losing the puck in his own end or turning the puck over leading to a goal in his own end.

 

[smd333]

I still have hope that Jensen's game will shape up. Like Steve Spurrier said "knot vary goud"

 

[txpd]

Well, it is 13-0 for Carlson.

Needless to say, the answer is obvious.

Well, yea, but none of us know what we are talking about

 

[txpd]

I still have hope that Jensen's game will shape up. Like Steve Spurrier said "knot vary goud"

Jensen has been fine of late. He has been moved back up to Orlov and last game when Orlov was moved up to replace Kempny with Carlson, Jensen and Siegenthaler got the 2nd pair mins. I think Reirden is happier with Jensen.

 

[Midnight Judges]

How did Jensen have no votes, he is solid defensively. Carlson since 2016 is a pretty strong negative in xGA and GA rates while Jensen is in a positive. Just because Carlson has super high end offense doesnt mean that hes good defensively. I know Jensen has become the whipping boy for the caps because hes bad offensively but hes actually been strong defensively, unlike Carlson.View attachment 289487

The Caps don’t have a whipping boy. They’re on pace for a Presidents trophy and killing it. Jensen has been fine. Everyone has been fine.

These types of stats are not reliable indicators. X goals is trash because it’s based on shot distance but not quality. It is by definition dumb, and people are wildly misusing it.

 

[twabby]

The Caps don’t have a whipping boy. They’re on pace for a Presidents trophy and killing it. Jensen has been fine. Everyone has been fine.

These types of stats are not reliable indicators. X goals is trash because it’s based on shot distance but not quality. It is by definition dumb, and people are wildly misusing them.

There is more to expected goals models than just shot distance and location.

RPubs - A New Expected Goal Model for Predicting Goals in the NHL

Shot distance, angle, type, duration since the last shot, number of skaters, score state, whether it's a rush attempt, etc. are all contributing factors. I agree that expected goals models aren't sufficient to capture the true value of every shot but it's a decent start and a relatively good predictor of future team success, certainly a better predictor than past team success.

I think the bigger problem with just using on-ice xGF isn't the xGF model itself but rather how to factor in individual skaters' contributions to their on-ice stats given teammates, opposition, score-state, zone starts, etc. Carlson's xGF numbers aren't great, but is it because he himself is influencing the xGF numbers negatively or is it because of his context (teammates, opposition, deployment, coaching, etc.)?

A great example is the play of Orlov and Niskanen this season compared to last: both seem to be doing well this season on different teams and in different contexts but last year together they were a disaster (but before that they were fantastic together!). What caused these changes? It certainly wasn't a poor xGF model, something about them was fundamentally broken while together and everyone here saw this last year.

Carlson's on-ice defensive numbers are quite poor and from my eye-test the team isn't very good defensively when he's on the ice, but like others I don't really think Carlson himself is responsible for his poor on-ice numbers (again, from my eye-test he's seemed good in his own zone). Separating individuals' contributions is significantly harder and this is where I think the next step in analysis is heading. People are trying it through various WAR/GAR models but they still seem insufficient.

 

[trick9]

Is Panik better than Ovechkin?

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Is Panik better than Ovechkin?

I am sure some pompous jackdonkey would find a way to make it so. Lol.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

Is Panik better than Ovechkin?

This argument isnt relevant at all to the question. The question isnt; Is Jensen better than Carlson? It's; Is Jensen better DEFENSIVELY than Carlson? So many people here are just missing the point, Carlson is a better player but Jensen is better defensively than him.