Speculation: Who is a good General Manager? Perhaps it's the luckiest one?

[Pyrophorus]

I don't get how so many posters keep on using the team's record under Lou and the Regression this year under Dubas and ignore context. We had 3 of our best Defensemen injured for a good amount of the season, 2 of our top 6 forwards injured for a good amount of the season, Marner missed some games and our starting goalie decided to fall off a cliff for like 2 months. When Marincin is playing significant minutes and you have 2 rookie defenders having to step in and fill minutes, that doesn't exactly give you confidence in winning a lot of games. How is the team being decimated by injuries and the goalie being bad on the GM? When Lou was still here the team had been pretty healthy.

The one argument for the team losing points under Dubas is the backup goalie situation. Not having a competent backup earlier on cost us probably around 8-10pts. From reports, Dubas tried to make the Campbell deal in November but LA wasn't ready to make that move.

The team also played much better under the new coach, which I think is the biggest factor.

 

[Funk21]

I agree with some of your statements, but not the ones about Lou (Zaitsev/Marleau). Zaitsev looked promising and paying him 4.5 million for a 36 point RHD didn't seem so steep. He obviously got injured and never played like he once was. Marleau had a great career and a good 1st season as a leaf. Yes he dropped off, but who knows how he would have played this season. He only got 10 points less in '18 then '17 , and he was never a liability. Couldn't he have played a role on the 3rd & 4th line this season? I think Pittsburgh thinks so. I understand the cap contraints, but I hate how they moved him out.

So what did Dubas do to move on from these two contracts? Here:

To Ottawa
Zaitsev
Brown
Carcone

To Toronto
Ceci
Harpur
Luchuk

To Carolina
Marleau
Conditional 1st round pick 2020
7th round pick in 2020

To Toronto
6th round pick in 2020

Ultimately TOR lost 3 NHLers and a conditional 1st round pick, and only gained 1 NHLer back for one season.


In fact how Dubas dealt with both players might turn out to be more costly...

Dubas had no choice but to shed salary to sign Marner. The fact that Dubas didn’t have to retain on Zaitsev was a feat and a half. Yes we got nothing for him but Ceci and scraps but if there was half a chance Ceci was a decent RHD it was worth a shot for not retaining on a player with 5 years remaining. He also had to dump a player that no other team was willing to give the extra year too. Both mistakes were made by a HOF GM.

My knock on Dubas is the Kadri trade. Both Kerfoot and Barrie were not the players we needed.

I think that Dubas is learning you can’t just have a one dimensional team and that having skill is complimented by size and physicality. As said I think it takes some more time but we eventually get to that happy medium in another year or two. There will be needed turnover in our players though. We are likely not going to loose anybody of consequence in the expansion draft. Where do I see this team long term. Something like this provided our prospects pan out 2021+:

Hyman Matthews Marner
Mikheyev JT Nylander
Robertson ?????? Kapanen
Engvall ??????? Korskov

Reilly ??????
Sandin Liljegren
Muzzin Holl

Scott
Woll

Obviously a few players have to pan out but our core forward group is elite, providing Sandin and Liljegren progress our D can be up there too. We will not be able to a afford a really strong first pairing RHD so the question becomes can we possibly get a Larsson or Savard type RHD who focuses on D but doesn’t score much to compliment Reilly is the question. The goalie situation is likely the area of most concern. Andersen is someone we can’t afford IMO and I’m unsure he can take us to a SC.

Sorry for the novel just bored. I think the team assembled above would be a great team to watch and compete in the future.

 

[Menzinger]

Little to none to the Leafs.
Obviously the Sens valued him considerably more

While thats true, but even if thats the case, it doesnt necessarily mean theyd be willing to give up anything more than Ceci.

The Blue Jackets valued a healthy Clarkson a lot more than an injured Horton, but that didnt mean the Leafs could have gotten anything of actual value for Clarkson from them

The Leafs valued long term capspace more than pressuing any sort of late pick out of the Sens. Imo its a fsir ttafe off, especially since Zaitsev had requested a trade

 

[Menzinger]

The pace was 117pts, under Keefe.

Yep.

And raw point numbers on their own are a bit misleading.

That 105 point season (while a great achievement) DID get a bit inflated hy a high number of shootout wins (not even OT), so its a bit misleading to presume that was a level that the team wasnt likely going to drop from

 

[hotpaws]

The team also played much better under the new coach, which I think is the biggest factor.

the team had a hot 20 or so game stretch after Babs got fired and then reverted back to how they played under Babs the last 20ish games

 

[rent free]

the team and a hot 20 or so game stretch after Babs got fired and then reverted back to how they played under Babs the last 20ish games

hate to admit it but this is true

 

[hotpaws]

The pace was 117pts, under Keefe.

the pace was 103 pts (59pts in under 47games) under Keefe and trending downward

15-4-1 his first 20 games

12-11-4 in his last 27 games

 

[Mickey Marner]

The Leafs MGMT problems fall on Shanahan first. He willingly gave up two 3rd round picks for Lamoriello and Babcock only to replace them with their polar opposites approximately 2 & 4 years later. Two entirely different MGMT styles pulling in two different directions has caused us to throw draft picks around willy nilly while spinning our tires in the mud. Well done, Shanny, you f***ing twit.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That 105 point season (while a great achievement) DID get a bit inflated hy a high number of shootout wins (not even OT)

And by our backup fluking into a vezina-quality season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

12-11-4 in his last 27 games

Because they were getting 0.892 goaltending despite putting up the 11th best expected goals against in the league over that timeframe.

 

[rent free]

Because they were getting 0.892 goaltending despite putting up the 11th best expected goals against in the league over that timeframe.

Maybe the near league leading offense shoulda scored more goals.

 

[Garthinater]

The pace was 117pts, under Keefe.

What's the point in making up numbers? It doesnt look good.

But that's the funny thing, the dubas defenders dont seem to care about facts.

the pace was 103 pts (59pts in under 47games) under Keefe and trending downward

15-4-1 his first 20 games

12-11-4 in his last 27 games

 

[Garthinater]

How was the decline set solely on the shoulders of Dubas? Explain what Lou wouldve done better?

"just because the team was losing a bunch of players and their best were no longer on ELCs giving the team cap flexibility doesnt mean they were going to be worse in the short term"

So your saying when dubas took over from lou that there was nothing he could do? Our leafs were just "set to be down graded" to being a playoff bubble team?

Every team has ufa's and players needing new contracts. That doesnt mean they are set to be downgraded. I'm honestly shocked you think that is a reasonable defense.

You genuinely think that dubas had no control and we were destined to regress after lou left? That's your honest opinion?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Maybe the near league leading offense shoulda scored more goals.

They were 3rd in xGF over that timeframe, and we were scoring over 3 goals a game. You should be able to expect better than 0.892 goaltending.

 

[IPS]

What's the point in making up numbers? It doesnt look good.

But that's the funny thing, the dubas defenders dont seem to care about facts.

But you're claiming a decline from when Lou left. A 103 point pace is barely a decline at all. The pace would have been much better if we didn't lose half our defense to injuries (something Lou's teams never had to deal with).

Like I said before, the team's moved laterally if anything (still not what you want with a young core like ours). They haven't declined.

 

[Garthinater]

But you're claiming a decline from when Lou left. A 103 point pace is barely a decline at all. The pace would have been much better if we didn't lose half our defense to injuries (something Lou's teams never had to deal with).

Like I said before, the team's moved laterally if anything (still not what you want with a young core like ours). They haven't declined.

That isnt our season pace though.

Dubas was gm for the whole season. You cant just break it down into parts to suit your narrative.

Our pace for the season is ~95 points. That's a decline of 5 points/ season under dubas.

Glad you mentioned injuries. Dont you find it interesting that we were so much healthier when lou was in charge?

Another thing is we seemed to get much better goal tending while lou was here.

Is everything just coincidences and none of it is on dubas?

Or, just maybe, the fact a rookie gm with no pro experience changed over 50% of the team with zero muscle resulted in our regression and lots of injuries.

I know which I find more realistic.

 

[weems]

They were 3rd in xGF over that timeframe, and we were scoring over 3 goals a game. You should be able to expect better than 0.892 goaltending.

What's also funny is noone brings up the fact that Rielly missed half the games we played under Keefe.
We arent exactly loaded on D and quite the opposite, so losing arguably your best D is a massive loss.
Then you have people saying "Man Holl sucked since he signed his contract". Maybe it had something to do with our D having significant injuries and him having to play more minutes than he should have?

Losing a player like Rielly or even Muzzin isnt just about you removing a good player from your lineup. It also forces lesser players into minutes that they shouldnt be playing and its only a matter of time before they get exposed.

I still have my reservations if this team can go all the way with how its constructed but I'm going to wait a full season, under the coach he wanted all along before I make any concrete judgements on Dubas's ability to put together a good team or not.

 

[Garthinater]

Maybe the near league leading offense shoulda scored more goals.

Or maybe that offense could help out a bit more in the defensive end.

Sure freddy averaged .918 sv%, (top 10 league wide) from 2015-2019. But it's all his fault he dropped down to a .909 (26th league wide). Its definitely not due to some of the trades and signings dubas has pulled off. That wouldn't make sense..

 

[kb]

What's also funny is noone brings up the fact that Rielly missed half the games we played under Keefe.
We arent exactly loaded on D and quite the opposite, so losing arguably your best D is a massive loss.
Then you have people saying "Man Holl sucked since he signed his contract". Maybe it had something to do with our D having significant injuries and him having to play more minutes than he should have?

Losing a player like Rielly or even Muzzin isnt just about you removing a good player from your lineup. It also forces lesser players into minutes that they shouldnt be playing and its only a matter of time before they get exposed.

I still have my reservations if this team can go all the way with how its constructed but I'm going to wait a full season, under the coach he wanted all along before I make any concrete judgements on Dubas's ability to put together a good team or not.

This is a very reasonable take. Agreed. Some love to ignore all context, and stick to their narratives.

The lesser lights amongst us want Dubas fired. Yet Doug Armstrong had the biggest underachieving team in the league for close to a decade. Why wasn't he fired?

 

[Garthinater]

This is a very reasonable take. Agreed. Some love to ignore all context, and stick to their narratives.

The lesser lights amongst us want Dubas fired. Yet Doug Armstrong had the biggest underachieving team in the league for close to a decade. Why wasn't he fired?

You call fans that want to win "lesser lights"? Rofl

What do you call fans that support a loosing gm? Slow

We are averaging 5 points/ season less each year dubas has been in command. The fact some of you are still going to such lengths to defend his every move is crazy.

Keeping sparks over mcback up, over paying RFA's, trading kadri for an offensive dman and a lesser player, not getting a decent back up for months etc. Each of these moves was met with great applause from certain fans. Using hindsight it is clear they were not being objective.

Why were we so much healthier with lou as gm?

Why was our goaltending so much better with lou?

Are you going to tell me it's all bad luck and none of it is dubas' fault?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Or maybe that offense could help out a bit more in the defensive end.

Sure freddy averaged .918 sv%, (top 10 league wide) from 2015-2019. But it's all his fault he dropped down to a .909 (26th league wide). Its definitely not due to some of the trades and signings dubas has pulled off. That wouldn't make sense..

This was the Leaf's best defensive year under this core, even with the massive and constant defensive injuries.

 

[ACC1224]

This is a very reasonable take. Agreed. Some love to ignore all context, and stick to their narratives.

The lesser lights amongst us want Dubas fired. Yet Doug Armstrong had the biggest underachieving team in the league for close to a decade. Why wasn't he fired?

Could be my perception is incorrect but I don’t think anyone wants him fired yet(ignoring that there are always a few wildcards amongst us). I do think that there are varying levels of confidence in what has transpired so far, which is valid,IMO.

 

[Garthinater]

This was the Leaf's best defensive year under this core, even with the massive and constant defensive injuries.

You dont end up with the 5th most goals against league wide by playing well defensively.

 

[The Podium]

So your saying when dubas took over from lou that there was nothing he could do? Our leafs were just "set to be down graded" to being a playoff bubble team?

Every team has ufa's and players needing new contracts. That doesnt mean they are set to be downgraded. I'm honestly shocked you think that is a reasonable defense.

You genuinely think that dubas had no control and we were destined to regress after lou left? That's your honest opinion?

I never said there was nothing he can do, but he did not have the same flexibility and was more reliant on individual progression rather than bringing high dollar players in to improve the team.

Youre talking about Nylander, Matthews, Marner going from less than 3 mill to almost 30mill over the course of 2 years. Even if you think as a collective they are overpaid, theyd still be somewhere around 25 mill. Not to mention raises needed for Hyman, Brown, Holl, Johnsson and Kapanen.

You lose depth like Bozak, JVR, Hainsey, Komarov, Gardiner, etc.

Then you have anchor contracts Lou left him in Zaitsev and Marleau that needed sweetners to dump.

Now on top of cleaning up the mess, re-signing his young stars, and replacing lost depth as best as he could at minimal cap (Mikheyev), he had to improve the D with as little cap as possible. He did well with Muzzin, dropped the ball on Barrie.

He has also been on the job for less than 2 seasons, so how is he solely responsible for a 3 year "decline" in your mind?

 

[Metroid]

Why were we so much healthier with lou as gm?

Why was our goaltending so much better with lou?

Are you going to tell me it's all bad luck and none of it is dubas' fault?

It's actually because Lou is a god and has special healing power that Dubas clearly does not.
Duh. Like come on man. Think!