Which team wins in a 7 game series?

[Big Daddy Cane]

I thought this could be a fun waste of time.

Envision in a hypothetical offseason with Ron Francis at the helm. Let’s say it’s the standard fare in that he makes a few changes, but leaves the bulk of the roster intact. It’s likely that the rookies would be coming in and the veteran UFAs would be going out if he’s in charge; that’s a testament to their quality as prospects. Also, let’s assume he sticks with his guy behind the bench.

Team Francis

Aho – Staal – Teravainen
Skinner – Lindholm – Williams
McGinn – Necas – Svechnikov
Zykov – Rask – Di Giuseppe

Slavin – Pesce
Fleury – Faulk
Hanifin – van Riemsdyk

Ward/Darling

HC: Bill Peters

...

Now, consider the result of the offseason:

Team Waddell

Aho – Staal – Teravainen
McGinn – Rask – Williams
Ferland – Necas – Svechnikov
Zykov – Martinook – Di Giuseppe

Slavin – Pesce
de Haan – Hamilton
Fleury/van Riemsdyk – Faulk

Darling/Mrazek

HC: Rod Brind’Amour

...

Any predictions about player performance and systems are yours to make. Which team wins in a 7 game series?

* The lines are representative of how I envision what a lineup with just a couple changes would look like and what the lineup with all the changes looks like. Re-arrange as you wish.

Click to read more...

 

[AD Skinner]

WHoever gets to put a shooter tutor in net

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I think as of now it’s close to a toss-up for the roster itself, but Waddell wins the tiebreaker by clearly having the franchise itself in a better position. Given the hypothetical here, Francis wouldn’t have gotten Fox, Pu, or any of the picks, and Waddell still has a potential return for Faulk on his resume if he chooses to move him.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

i dont see a lot of difference between the two, really. stronger defense for waddell team.

kind of a "devil you know " kind of thing going on with team francis

 

[MinJaBen]

* The lines are representative of how I envision what a lineup with just a couple changes would look like and what the lineup with all the changes looks like. Re-arrange as you wish.

Part of the exercise should be requiring that we shuffle the Francis team's lines as it is Bill Peters that is the coach.

 

[Novacane]

Anyone else keep forgetting Mrazek is the other goalie on our roster?

Maybe I’m having selective amnesia

 

[geehaad]

Part of the exercise should be requiring that we shuffle the Francis team's lines as it is Bill Peters that is the coach.

I get that this is a running joke, but *every* *single* *coach* of the Hurricanes has been derided for this same supposed fault. I don't watch other teams, but it seems to me that line shuffling is pretty standard fare for teams that are mediocre (or worse).

 

[Joe McGrath]

7 game series?

I’ll take the team with Cam Ward.

Assuming this is a fresh 7 games and not after a season where he had to play a bunch.

 

[geehaad]

7 game series?

I’ll take the team with Cam Ward.

Assuming this is a fresh 7 games and not after a season where he had to play a bunch.

Regardless, I'd still take the team with Ward.

 

[MinJaBen]

I get that this is a running joke, but *every* *single* *coach* of the Hurricanes has been derided for this same supposed fault. I don't watch other teams, but it seems to me that line shuffling is pretty standard fare for teams that are mediocre (or worse).

Yes, it is a joke. *Every* *single* *time* I say it, it has always been a joke.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Team Ward.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

It's hard to tell at the moment, since we don't really have an idea of how team Waddell will actually perform.

But Team Francis has better goaltending, and is less likely to have issues scoring, which offsets the slight edge Team Waddell has on defense.

So RF

 

[DaveG]

If Ward's the starter on Team Francis vs Darling being the starter on Team Waddell I take Team Francis in 5.

 

[Novacane]

It's hard to tell at the moment, since we don't really have an idea of how team Waddell will actually perform.

But Team Francis has better goaltending, and is less likely to have issues scoring, which offsets the slight edge Team Waddell has on defense.

So RF

I don’t think it’s fair at all to call adding a top paring defender to the group resulting in a “slight edge” at all. You may weigh the three positions different than I do but that is a major upgrade no matter how you slice it

 

[bleedgreen]

I’d take RF. I think Team Waddell’s time is in the future when it’s shaped more and has a few gaps sorted out.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I don’t think it’s fair at all to call adding a top paring defender to the group resulting in a “slight edge” at all. You may weigh the three positions different than I do but that is a major upgrade no matter how you slice it

It's not about weighing the position differently, it's about diminishing returns. There's only so much ice time to give out, so while Waddell's 2nd pairing is definitely better than Francis' (assuming both use Slavin/Pesce as top pairing), the 3rd pairing is minimally different.

I mean, at least IMO, I don't see a huge difference between Hanifin/TVR vs. Faulk/TVR.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Team Francis has a deep offense comparatively and the skill is there to more effectively play Peters’ system. Still, it’s very much a perimeter team that would dominate possession with speed. Team Waddell would be forced to defend more. I think that actually helps in that Darling would just have to be a mountain in net against in-zone pressure as opposed to being athletic against the rush.

Faulk and Hanifin would still have issues in defending against the counterattack under Bill Peters. In those shifts that Team Waddell gets sustained pressure, Team Francis would have issues keeping them from the middle of the ice.

I give the edge to Team Waddell in terms of special teams. The PK is a wash, but I don’t think Skinner and Lindholm are a huge loss for the PP. Going from Hanifin to Faulk is an upgrade for Team Waddell. More importantly, the personnel is geared towards more traffic in and around the net for Team Waddell. Again, I think that’s an issue for Team Francis.

Normally, I give preference to the more talented team. In this case, I think I’ll go with Team Waddell in 7. Team Francis would get the better of the fanalytics, but Team Waddell scratches out enough offense to get by.

 

[Novacane]

It's not about weighing the position differently, it's about diminishing returns. There's only so much ice time to give out, so while Waddell's 2nd pairing is definitely better than Francis' (assuming both use Slavin/Pesce as top pairing), the 3rd pairing is minimally different.

I mean, at least IMO, I don't see a huge difference between Hanifin/TVR vs. Faulk/TVR.

Thats not the difference though. It’s Hanifin vs de Haan which is slight to Hanifin and then Hamilton vs nothing. You could argue that you’re replacing Faulk with Hamilton if you want but that is still a blatant upgrade

Edit: I went straight to your comparison without reading the paragraph. I see what you’re saying now, but I can’t wrap my head around why you want to compare the 3rd pairing while discounting Hamilton seemingly completely

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

If they had kept Skinner for a year and found someway to swing Hanifin + Rask + prospect for Hamilton, you're rolling:

Aho-Staal-TT
Skinner-Lindholm-Williams
McGinn-Necas-Svechnikov

But we took out Skinner and Lindy and replaced it with Ferland (who imo will be lucky to get 30 points unless we force the issue on a line with Aho and TT) and ????.

It isn't that they took a step backward. They'll score at a similar rate imo. It's that the addition of highly touted guys in Svech and Necas + whichever Checker survives Rod Brind'Amour Presents Hurricanes Training Camp 2018: ThunderDome to what they already had would have been the most tangible step forward for this offense since they signed Alex Semin to a one year deal.

But they parlayed that into treading water at the addition of Dougie Hamilton.

I get why Skinner was traded. I think giving up Lindholm, even if all he ever is is a 45-50 point versatile winger, is the big mistake.

I go with Team Francis because Ward.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

If I know hockey tropes (and I do), I know that replacing Skinner with Ferland and Nordstrom with Martinook means that this team is ready for the grind of the playoffs.

Therefore Waddell in 4.

 

[tarheelhockey]

My guess is that both will end up with a total of zero series wins.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

We can answer this for real when Calgary comes to town.

 

[Canes]

Who gets home ice? Basically even with that, it's a coin flip. Yeah, the Francis team is slightly deeper up front but even with Cam Ward's playoff experience, it was a decade ago and who knows if he would be even a fraction of the goalie he was during our playoff runs. Waddell's team is much better on defense, I don't even think it's close there.

 

[Lempo]

We can answer this for real when Calgary comes to town.

Whalercane > second-hand cane

 

[DaveG]

Who gets home ice? Basically even with that, it's a coin flip. Yeah, the Francis team is slightly deeper up front but even with Cam Ward's playoff experience, it was a decade ago and who knows if he would be even a fraction of the goalie he was during our playoff runs. Waddell's team is much better on defense, I don't even think it's close there.

Doesn't have to be a fraction of the goalie he was in 06 or 09, just has to be better then a shooter tutor which I still question if Darling will be.