Matthews to Arizona is very unlikely imo, but it's at least fathomable.
McDavid to Toronto really isn't at this point. if that happened, it would break the internet
If it happened though, it would mean McDavid hit free agency, the Leafs would have space, and there would likely be rumblings leading up to it. We wouldn’t be in the same position we are now in terms of likelihood.
I’m also not sure if likelihood is the determining factor here. I think it would be a bigger story eventually, as people start analyzing what it means for the Leafs and McDavid going forward and all time status and all that, but the initial surge of activity is usually what blows up the site, and I think the mocking and “I told you sos” would be more prevalent in an initial surge with Matthews leaving than the surprise posts about McDavid signing. There would be backlash against the Oilers in that scenario, but I don’t think to the same extent, because the Oilers don’t bring out the same vitriol from other fan bases.