Where does Kucherov rank among Russians?

[Professor What]

When we did the Top 200 project in 2021 (wow, it's been three years since we did that), Nikita Kucherov was ranked 187, the #20 Russian player in the project. Since then, he's tallied nearly 100 goals, over 200 assists, and compiled two big playoff runs. This season, he's right in the thick of the MVP race, looks likely to win a second Art Ross, and may well end the season as one of four or five players, depending on what happens with McDavid to have 100 assists in a season. I think it goes without saying that he's moved up since we did the project, but the question is, how much? I've got a feeling that if we were to do it all again, he'd be pretty high in the second hundred now if not just inside the top 100. Has he cracked or is at least threatening to crack the top 10 for Russian players in the history of the sport?

Click to read more...

 

[GlitchMarner]

I'll admit I don't follow Russian hockey (or really any European hockey), but if we compare Russians based on NHL play/accomplishments alone, I think the only guys who clearly rank ahead of him are Ovechkin and Malkin. I don't think Malkin should be considered that far ahead, either.

Off the top of my head, I think I'd put him below Fedorov but above Datsyuk.

He's definitely done enough by now to clear the Bures, Kovalchuks and Mogilnys.

He's certainly ahead of any of their defensemen and goalies in terms of NHL play.

 

[ViD]

Are we talking strictly NHL? If so, he’s already the second best behind Ovechkin

 

[jigglysquishy]

I would still absolutely rank Malkin ahead of Kucherov, but the gap closed a lot this season.

Very clearly behind Fetisov, Makarov, and Tretiak too. He's closing in on Kharlamov though.

 

[Professor What]

Are we talking strictly NHL? If so, he’s already the second best behind Ovechkin

I had in mind everything. So keep Soviets like Fetisov, or Tretiak, or Makarov in mind too.

I would still absolutely rank Malkin ahead of Kucherov, but the gap closed a lot this season.

Very clearly behind Fetisov, Makarov, and Tretiak too. He's closing in on Kharlamov though.

Kharlamov was one comparable I thought of tbh. I'm not sure he's there yet, but I think he's close.

 

[Gorskyontario]

People can cope about it if they want, but he's already better than Ovechkin. Maybe better then Malkin at his best.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Second after Ovechkin but there’s a main poll thread comparing him and Malkin and some consider him over Malkin to be absurd. Objectively though, it’s close and in my mind leans Kucherov.

 

[Crosby2010]

Hard to see the pre-NHL guys and what they may have done. We can guess, that's about it. However Kucherov has brought it to the table in the NHL so we can judge that. I am not sure how anyone can be above him other than Ovechkin (who he won't catch I can't imagine) or Malkin (who he may catch). Some mentioned Fedorov, but I don't know what would put Fedorov ahead of Kucherov. There are too many regular seasons where Fedorov dogged it and Kucherov has not done this. The playoffs are always Fedorov's meal ticket, but this is a rare case of a player who at least has Fedorov's playoff portfolio, and to be quite honest I think he's surpassed him. Yeah Kucherov is not any worse than 3rd all-time among Russian NHLers. Hard to say all-time though.

 

[The Panther]

Honestly, if we're talking peak level of NHL play (and any reasonable longevity), I think Kucherov is already tied with Malkin and Ovechkin. (For peak, maybe throw a little Bure in there, too, with a dash of Datsyuk and Fedorov.)

I mean, besides longevity and career numbers, what does Malkin have that Kucherov doesn't? I'm not sure Ovi has anything there, either.

 

[Namba 17]

Kucherov
Hart 1, 1* 6, 8, 12, 13
AS 1, 1, 1* 2, 2, 4, 6, 6, 8
Points 1, 1* 3, 3, 5, 7
Goals 2, 6, 9, 10*
Asissts 1, 2, 2*, 6, 8
* - current season

Malkin
Hart 1, 2, 2, 7, 10
AS 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 6, 13
Points 1, 1, 2, 4
Goals 2, 4, 4
Assist 1, 2, 6, 10

I'd say that this season makes it very close between Malkin and Kuch. Without 23/24 its Malkin without doubt, but with it its not that clear. Malkin's health is a problem, as usual.
I think, that after this season they will be on the same level. Another season like this will bring Kuch ahead.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

malkin obviously has a much longer and fuller career than kucherov, but i think kucherov might have already passed malkin’s peak.

malkin has a stunning five year peak as a historically elite player:

​

2008: second in scoring to ovechkin’s absolute peak year, hart runner up, strong run to the finals​

2009: art ross, hart runner up again, historically dominant cup run and conn smythe​

2010: /​

2011: /​

2012: one of those truly great end-to-end hart/ross seasons where no one else was ever close​

kuch is at seven peak years now:

2017: fifth in scoring​

2018: third in scoring (tbf, malkin in a late spike year was two pts behind)​

2019: kuch’s own truly great end-to-end hart/ross season where no one else was ever close, except mcjesus for a hot minute at the end​

2020: meh regular season, led the playoffs in scoring​

2021: missed the whole regular season, led the playoffs in scoring again​

2022: meh regular season, strong finals run​

2023: third in scoring, behind absolute peak mcjesus, plus draisaitl​

2024: probable art ross and broke his own single-season winger assist record​

both guys had injury issues and each also had just a dud year or two (by their insanely high standards) during their peaks but they each also outscored generational talents right in the middle their peaks. absolute top end, i think malkin was a little better, but kucherov has the deeper peak and he probably will still be in it next year.

 

[Namba 17]

I had in mind everything. So keep Soviets like Fetisov, or Tretiak, or Makarov in mind too.


Kharlamov was one comparable I thought of tbh. I'm not sure he's there yet, but I think he's close.

Soviet players points/goals/MVP top finishes
this can help

 

[Overrated]

I had in mind everything. So keep Soviets like Fetisov, or Tretiak, or Makarov in mind too.

Kharlamov was one comparable I thought of tbh. I'm not sure he's there yet, but I think he's close.

Makarov is #1 best Russian ever for sure. I'd rank him in the top10 ever.

 

[Namba 17]

Speaking about his place among all Soviets...
You can bring stats and detailed analysis, but it will take long time. Not now
More easy way - take two players and think whom you will take first for your team.
Makarov vs Kuch - Makarov easily.
Mikhailov vs Kuch - Mikhailov easily.
Balderis vs Kuch - not easy. Really don't know whom to take. Probably Kuch, but its depends on the team you build more.
Bure vs Kuch - same, but probably Kuch here - less injuries and a bit more versatile
Shalimov - very close, but after this year it will be Kuch.
Vikulov - Kuch
Loktev - depends on your team needs. Loktev is much much better without puck. But, as I said, after this year its Kuch, probably.
Krutov - Krutov.
Firsov - Firsov. Better defensively, can play C, the same creativity and goalscoring
Kharlamov - the same level. Really hard to make a choise here.
Alexandrov, A. Yakushev, Kovalchuck, Mayorov - Kucherov.

So, it gives us Kharlamov level so far with an option to upgrade.
Which is very good.

 

[Overrated]

Speaking about his place among all Soviets...
You can bring stats and detailed analysis, but it will take long time. Not now
More easy way - take two players and think whom you will take first for your team.
Makarov vs Kuch - Makarov easily.
Mikhailov vs Kuch - Mikhailov easily.
Balderis vs Kuch - not easy. Really don't know whom to take. Probably Kuch, but its depends on the team you build more.
Bure vs Kuch - same, but probably Kuch here - less injuries and a bit more versatile
Shalimov - very close, but after this year it will be Kuch.
Vikulov - Kuch
Loktev - depends on your team needs. Loktev is much much better without puck. But, as I said, after this year its Kuch, probably.
Krutov - Krutov.
Firsov - Firsov. Better defensively, can play C, the same creativity and goalscoring
Kharlamov - the same level. Really hard to make a choise here.
Alexandrov, A. Yakushev, Kovalchuck, Mayorov - Kucherov.

So, it gives us Kharlamov level so far with an option to upgrade.
Which is very good.

You said Mikhailov easily but Kharlamov a hard choice. Why? I mean Kharlamov is generally considered the superior one and despite his shorter career their achievements are virtually identical.

 

[Namba 17]

You said Mikhailov easily but Kharlamov a hard choice. Why? I mean Kharlamov is generally considered the superior one and despite his shorter career their achievements are virtually identical.

Who consider Kharlamov superior generally?
To answer this question with explanation would be off topic here.

 

[ValeriKamensky]

1. Sergei Fedorov
2. Evgeni Malkin
3. Pavel Bure
4-5. Nikita Kucherov/Alexander Ovechkin

It’s clear if you watch the hockey game, not only stats.

 

[Overrated]

Who consider Kharlamov superior generally?
To answer this question with explanation would be off topic here.

Well everyone? I mean he was the star of the troika just like Makarov is considered better than Krutov and Larionov. I do think Kharlamov was closer in skill to his two mates than Makarov who was quite a lot better. Kharlamov is more beloved in Russia and he is more beloved in North America as well. You're the first guy I've seen to rank Mikhailov above Kharlamov who I might agree to be a bit overrated but still better.

 

[bobholly39]

Malkin has 1100+ games and 1200+ points
Kucherov has 700+ games and 800+ points

So - give Malkin any longevity edge you want - until Kucherov plays a few more seasons to bridge that longevity gap, it makes sense

But - outside of longevity - Kucherov is ahead.

Better overall playoffs? I think Kucherov already has Malkin beat there, or at the very least tied. Malkin 2009 is probably the best individual run, but Kucherov has the next 2. And if you list each player's top 4 or 5 playoff runs, I think Kucherov does better

Best individual regular season. This year is better than Malkin 2012. 2018-2019 is better than Malkin 2009. So Kucherov has two better runs than Malkin's top 2.

So yeah - if you want to still rank Malkin ahead due to extra longevity, fine, but Kucherov is definitely pacing ahead. If he adds another peak worthy season or playoff run - the gap just starts to grow.

We'll see if he can contiue to rise further.

 

[TheStatican]

Best individual regular season. This year is better than Malkin 2012. 2018-2019 is better than Malkin 2009.

Absolutely not.
There seem to be several factors you are not accounting for: increased scoring levels, a shift in scoring distribution towards star players, and Kucherov's propensity, with his team's blessing, to pursue personal achievements.

How so? Kucherov has been aggressively pursuing easy points to a degree likely unprecedented in NHL history. The record speaks for itself, particularly that which is bolded:
October 10 - EN goal 2 seconds left
November 24 - assist late in the third while up 7 to 2
Dec 28 - EN assist with 7 seconds left while up by 2
January 23 - EN goal with 11 seconds left while up by 2
January 27 - EN assist
February 10 - EN assist
February 24 - EN assist
February 25 - EN goal while up by 2
February 27 - assist late in third while down 1 to 9
March 14 - EN goal while up by 2
March 16 - EN goal
March 27 - EN goal
March 29 - EN goal
March 30 - EN assist while up by 2
April 4 - EN assist while up by 2
April 9 - EN assist while up by 2

10 of those points in the last 6 weeks of the season alone is no coincidence.

It seems this needs to be re-emphasized;
-Empty Net minutes, opportunities and scoring has drastically increased over the past several seasons compared to previous eras. Scoring adjustments for this have not been accounted for and are not insignificant.

-Scoring rates playing against an empty net are 3 times as high than powerplay scoring rates. Scoring rates playing with an empty net, the numbers for which have also correspondingly beeen thrending upwards, are about ad high as powerplay scoring rates, which only makes sense since it is a man advantage situation.

I ran the numbers for all the great seasons to last year's scoring rates which are very close to this yesrs;

McDavid's numbers compared to the greatest seasons in NHL history - adjusted to this years scoring levels

Hockey Reference has an adjustment system in place that normalizes player scoring levels to an equal amount of goals per game using the following formula; "All statistics have been adjusted to an 82-game schedule with a maximum roster size of 18 skaters and league averages of 6 goals per game...

forums.hfboards.com

Malkin's 11-12 season adjusted to 128 points in 75 games. A 65-goal 140 point scoring pace in 82, which would be a clearly superior level of play over Kucherov 43 and 141 this year and that's without accounting for the above mentioned scoring effects that has further benefited Kuch.

 

[daver]

Best individual regular season. This year is better than Malkin 2012. 2018-2019 is better than Malkin 2009. So Kucherov has two better runs than Malkin's top 2.

I don't see this, and the bolded is maybe worded incorrectly.

Both seasons are arguable. Kucherov in 18/19 had a lot of support while Malkin in 08/09, outside of Crosby on the PP, did not.

Malkin's 11/12 is closer to Kucherov's 23/24 than it is to Kucherov's 18/19; and Kucherov's 23/24 (along with MacKinnon's and Matthews' seasons) are throwing a wrench into the GOAT's discussion.

The significant increase in ES scoring since 16/17 is a new dynamic that perhaps hasn't been put into context.

IMO, we saw enough of post peak Crosby/Ovechkin and Malkin vs. the current superstars to question we take the past couple of seasons at statistical face value.

That being said, despite not being as good as peak Malkin, Kucherov is getting very close to Malkin's prime (or has arguably surpassed it).

 

[Despote]

IMO, we saw enough of post peak Crosby/Ovechkin and Malkin vs. the current superstars to question we take the past couple of seasons at statistical face value.

We also saw a 40yo Teemu Selänne outscore prime OV and Malkin. Surely the idea that they are better than peak Selänne is laughable?

It seems to me that for the longest time the basic assumption was that the previous generation was better. Now that the current generation is outdoing the previous generations feats, it's hastily explained away in a manner that would've never been made to elevate the current generation on par or above the past one.

 

[daver]

It seems to me that for the longest time the basic assumption was that the previous generation was better.

Which "previous generation" are you talking about? And how long is the "longest time"?

Now that the current generation is outdoing the previous generations feats, it's hastily explained away in a manner that would've never been made to elevate the current generation on par or above the past one.

"Outdoing" how? Higher point totals?

 

[Gorskyontario]

Ovechkin only won 1 art ross and never put up multiple 30 point postseasons. Kucherov is extremely underrated, and will likely be underrated until he retires.

 

[bobholly39]

Absolutely not.
There seem to be several factors you are not accounting for: increased scoring levels, a shift in scoring distribution towards star players, and Kucherov's propensity, with his team's blessing, to pursue personal achievements.

How so? Kucherov has been aggressively pursuing easy points to a degree likely unprecedented in NHL history. The record speaks for itself, particularly that which is bolded:
October 10 - EN goal 2 seconds left
November 24 - assist late in the third while up 7 to 2
Dec 28 - EN assist with 7 seconds left while up by 2
January 23 - EN goal with 11 seconds left while up by 2
January 27 - EN assist
February 10 - EN assist
February 24 - EN assist
February 25 - EN goal while up by 2
February 27 - assist late in third while down 1 to 9
March 14 - EN goal while up by 2
March 16 - EN goal
March 27 - EN goal
March 29 - EN goal
March 30 - EN assist while up by 2
April 4 - EN assist while up by 2
April 9 - EN assist while up by 2

10 of those points in the last 6 weeks of the season alone is no coincidence.

It seems this needs to be re-emphasized;
-Empty Net minutes, opportunities and scoring has drastically increased over the past several seasons compared to previous eras. Scoring adjustments for this have not been accounted for and are not insignificant.

-Scoring rates playing against an empty net are 3 times as high than powerplay scoring rates. Scoring rates playing with an empty net, the numbers for which have also correspondingly beeen thrending upwards, are about ad high as powerplay scoring rates, which only makes sense since it is a man advantage situation.

I ran the numbers for all the great seasons to last year's scoring rates which are very close to this yesrs;

McDavid's numbers compared to the greatest seasons in NHL history - adjusted to this years scoring levels

Hockey Reference has an adjustment system in place that normalizes player scoring levels to an equal amount of goals per game using the following formula; "All statistics have been adjusted to an 82-game schedule with a maximum roster size of 18 skaters and league averages of 6 goals per game...

forums.hfboards.com

Malkin's 11-12 season adjusted to 128 points in 75 games. A 65-goal 140 point scoring pace in 82, which would be a clearly superior level of play over Kucherov 43 and 141 this year and that's without accounting for the above mentioned scoring effects that has further benefited Kuch.

You're cherry picking points from Kucherov this year and trying to argue they don't matter as much...ok. Has anyone done that for Gretzky? Lemieux? Orr? To me a point is a point.

And even more on-point - Malkin? Your comparison is all one sided.

As for Malkin's "adjusted points of 128".....

1. Adjusted points are never perfect
2. Even if you want to use adjusted points - using your own method, Kucherov has seasons of 138 and 141+ (whatever this year is) to Malkin's 122 and 128 (paced to 140 in 82 games). Doesn't this still give edge to Kucherov?

I don't see this, and the bolded is maybe worded incorrectly.

Both seasons are arguable. Kucherov in 18/19 had a lot of support while Malkin in 08/09, outside of Crosby on the PP, did not.

Malkin's 11/12 is closer to Kucherov's 23/24 than it is to Kucherov's 18/19; and Kucherov's 23/24 (along with MacKinnon's and Matthews' seasons) are throwing a wrench into the GOAT's discussion.

The significant increase in ES scoring since 16/17 is a new dynamic that perhaps hasn't been put into context.

IMO, we saw enough of post peak Crosby/Ovechkin and Malkin vs. the current superstars to question we take the past couple of seasons at statistical face value.

That being said, despite not being as good as peak Malkin, Kucherov is getting very close to Malkin's prime (or has arguably surpassed it).

I always had Kucherov 2018-2019 and Malkin 2012 close. A lot of poeple lean Malkin in that comparison, I'm not so sure. But - Kucherov this season is even better.

So I feel pretty safe saying that Kucherov's best 2 seasons are better than Malkin's best 2. Even if you want to argue Malkin's 2012 is the best of the lot (it's not) - Kucherov's best 2 is still better then Malkin's combined top 2.

He's really putting together a terrific peak/prime.