Speculation: Where do the Jackets finish?

[Youngguns80]

I think the season will shake out in the first 30 days for the Jackets. If Elvis and/or Defense (system) are decent to good it should be a better then expected season.

If Elvis struggles (confidence), then all bets are off. If this happens then there could be some trades to solidify that position if available.

This Team needs a good start to build confidence.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

The first month will probably decide a lot - we have 6 home games and 3 away games in October to start the season, after that it's pretty even. Towards the end of the season we have four road trips that last 4 or 5 games, one in each month in Jan, Feb, Apr, Mar. Those are going to be tough. So we need a good start to have any chance at success. It might be asking too much to be honest...

 

[Napoli]

The first month will probably decide a lot - we have 6 home games and 3 away games in October to start the season, after that it's pretty even. Towards the end of the season we have four road trips that last 4 or 5 games, one in each month in Jan, Feb, Apr, Mar. Those are going to be tough. So we need a good start to have any chance at success. It might be asking too much to be honest...

I noticed early on we have mostly home games with nothing more than two road games in a row until January. If they don't start well, it could be ugly. Even if they aren't that good, a solid start is more than doable. If they struggle early, expect bottom 5 in the league badness.

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

The goaltending is a major concern to me and will likely offset at least in part any improvements made elsewhere. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think this team will not overcome the below average goaltending that I expect to see.

 

[Marioesque]

Voted over 90 because your mom wasn't an option

 

[NotWendell]

81 is my guess. And that's assuming we have a decent backup goalie.

 

[NotWendell]

Voted over 90 because your mom wasn't an option

So I'm guessing the Mom was 70 years old?

 

[Xoggz22]

The eternal optimist. I'm going on a limb with over 90. It may not be realistic but I also don't think last year was a true representation of the talent on this team. Underperforming, hurt, coaching... I'm expecting all of those to be impacted positively this year. So, for me, if last year wasn't a true representation I would say maybe a drop in 10 points from the year prior? Puts that closer to 71 pts last year. Adding 20 pts to that gets me to 91. I will revisit this 15 or so games in and we have a system that should be gelling and a feel for whether the talent is real or not.

 

[Marioesque]

So I'm guessing the Mom was 70 years old?

Would make it harder to finish

 

[Viqsi]

The eternal optimist. I'm going on a limb with over 90. It may not be realistic but I also don't think last year was a true representation of the talent on this team. Underperforming, hurt, coaching... I'm expecting all of those to be impacted positively this year. So, for me, if last year wasn't a true representation I would say maybe a drop in 10 points from the year prior? Puts that closer to 71 pts last year. Adding 20 pts to that gets me to 91. I will revisit this 15 or so games in and we have a system that should be gelling and a feel for whether the talent is real or not.

I opted to split the difference and go with 81-85, with the thought that there could be significant swings either way. Felt like an appropriate way to represent the "cautious" in "cautious optimism".

 

[Forepar]

I voted 81-85. Development of F and D will occur regardless. The W/L is, unfortunately I fear, all on Elvis and his band of goalies. There will be flashes of stellar play in goal but not consistent enough to be better than 85. AND I HOPE I AM SOOOOO WRONG!

 

[Forepar]

I voted 71-80.

The good:
Adding some chips to the blue line has to help.
Lot of forward depth.

The really bad:
Goaltending

The unknown:
Coaching - I don't think any of us know what to expect.
Chemistry - Somewhat related to coaching is the team chemistry especially with at least one young player (potentially more) going outside the room and playing an instrumental part in the coaching change.
Centers - Can Laine or Johnson play Center and how fast can Fantilli move into the top 6?

I think the chemistry issue is tied to the goalie issue. If a goalie can cover a mistake and steal a game or two early, the chemistry will be awesome.
I don't think younger player(s) intentionally went outside the room. Bissonette was throwing darts in the dark mentioning Jenner - and then the rest came out as the investigation started. I think they will be fine in that respect...no player, veteran or rookie, had built any allegiance to Babcock - that takes going through some fires in games, especially road trips. Never had a chance to happen. I think they have moved along.

 

[Youngguns80]

I just want to see structure in our defensive end and normal goalie saves without using Jobu

 

[NotWendell]

Would make it harder to finish

Word on the street is she's got a good glove hand.

 

[puckgoalnet]

Mid 70's

Just a weird team right now. If everything clicks, possibility to hit the 80's.

But there's also a possibility to greatly underachieve that. It could easily take October and part of November to learn the new system and figure out chemistry.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Goaltending will hold them back still this year but ahead of Flyers/Was should be target


Laine at 25 is already heading downwards?

Okay there

Laine’s game has become more complete and I see no reason to expect a decline for multiple years

Over the next few years. Most top players have their peak scoring years in their mid 20s. Most top players have their peak scoring years in their mid 20s. I don't anticipate a decline this season nor a rapid decline. Just thinking he's hit his peak-he averaged nearly 1.0 ppg over the past 2 seasons. I don't antcipate a decline this season nor a rapid decline. Just thinking he's hit his peak-he averaged nearly 1.0 ppg over the past 2 seasons.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm with the majority here, I think anywhere from 80-90 points.

I listen to Portys podcast and he keeps predicting we start slow. Well, looking at our schedule, if we start slow it will likely be a major issue and a worse season than I actually thought. It's a relatively weaker start (4 game home stand to start, only 3 road games total in October) than we had last year. We also have a lot of home games in November too. So if we start slow, I feel like its going to be a potential bottom 5 finish again.

There's too many question marks for this to be a playoff team (center is still an issue, defense will be improved but by how much? And of course, goaltending) in all likelihood. If Elvis rebounds into first year form, then we can be right there. I don't anticipate that though and would not be surprised if Martin/Tarasov unseats him as starter at some points in the season.

Special teams will probably be an issue again.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

I wonder, what is the best possible outcome for the long term? I'm pretty sure a result like last season would be damaging and risk entering the Edmonton, Buffalo, Toronto, Arizona abyss where it could take 10 years to recover.

Would squeaking in to the playoffs make them a better team long term? Would they be better off to field a competitive team - 85-91 points- that isn't playoff material but not that far off? A 70+ point team that is clearly better, but still gets a reasonably early pick and a chance to draft another difference maker?

Something else? What is the best possible outcome for the long term?

 

[koteka]

What is the best possible outcome for the long term?

Scoring a lot and having young guys improve. Where we finish this season is less important than how guys like KJ, Fantilli, Sillinger, the Russians, Laine as a center, Werenski returning from injury, etc. look as the year goes on.

 

[DarkandStormy]

If the team gets sub-.890 goaltending from Elvis & Martin, watch out.

Hopefully there's at least more structure and GAF than last season. I think Severson is prone to big mistakes and I don't think Provorov is an upgrade over Gavrikov.

I also think there's just too many "new things." New coach, new system, new (?) power play, new guys at center (Laine, Fantilli). Usually when you're throwing that many new things together, it takes a long while for it to all click. So this could be a classic CBJ season of finishing off 13-2-2 or whatever to move from 31st place up to 26th or something like that on the back end.

 

[MAHJ71]

First Glance/Gut: 81-85
-Feels like middle of the pack realistically with so many unknowns like defense/Elvis/coach/healthy roster

Obviously Hoping For: Over 90
-Optimistically I want to believe defense/Elvis will be better. Offense has the pieces.

Goodbye Jarmo/JD: Under 70
-If we're bad bad again, we need new blood. New faces. New ideas.

 

[tunnelvision]

Which would be a better outcome?

- Jackets finish with 90 points and miss the playoffs, no front office changes after the season

- Jackets finish with 75 points with relatively healthy roster, Jarmo and JD get canned

 

[Monk]

Which would be a better outcome?

- Jackets finish with 90 points and miss the playoffs, no front office changes after the season

- Jackets finish with 75 points with relatively healthy roster, Jarmo and JD get canned

The first one, but I'm assuming that means many of the young core players took significant strides forward and contributed a lot.

 

[Doggy]

The CBJ have already exceeded my season expectations.

 

[CBJx614]

Which would be a better outcome?

- Jackets finish with 90 points and miss the playoffs, no front office changes after the season

- Jackets finish with 75 points with relatively healthy roster, Jarmo and JD get canned

Preferably the one that shows sign of progression...

I can't imagine anyone who has been complaining of this team doing bad to continue to play poorly... So that a new FO comes in and starts the cycle again...

We all know at best we're competing for a wild card spot this season. Our window for the playoffs doesn't even likely open until next season..