3.4 vs 2.6 Shots per game. I don't know... is it really that much? I disagree that his shot selection has been noticeable worst. Last year he was doing a lot of the same things, including completely missing the net about 60% of the time.
That's huge! Let's say that 10% of SOG go in (it's actually like 8.6 or something, it's not really important because there's a lot of variance in shooting percentage from season to season). And let's say that Semin hypothetically plays two 82-game seasons at that pace.
The difference is 28 goals in the good year, 21 in the bad year. Basically it's the difference between a top six goal scorer and a top line, all star caliber player.
While it's true that shot location plays a role in shooting percentage, Semin is not a defenseman. He's a phenomenally skilled forward. Him getting shots in the slot is not a problem. The problem is that he's passing up shots.
Semin's been a 30 goal scorer, and even a 40 goal scorer. Last year he was on pace for close for 25...and that would have been an off year. It's shortsighted to ignore that history because of 22 games, and way less than 82 games combined for the Canes. That's just silly.
Also, FWIW, there's two players in hockey who you can expect to get goals at double the normal rate or so: Steve Stamkos and Sidney Crosby. They take the same amount of shots as say, Eric Staal (~300), but they get 45-60 goals instead of 30. Ovechkin got his 50 goal seasons when he was taking 450-550 shots. Then Dale Hunter literally smothered him for a period of time.
With a pillow.