What's Preventing The Hurricanes From Taking That Next Step?

[wgknestrick]

Perimeter team

 

[TheOrganist]

Vancouver back in the Naslund days,
Ottawa in the Heatley days,
San Jose in the Nabokob days,
Carolina and Toronto now...

Some great teams just never quite pull it off sometimes. There's more 'right place, right time' to all of this than many would like to admit. St.Louis looked like they were in a somewhat similar boat, and they pulled one off. I don't think their roster was necesarily any better than the Canes was/is.

You’re joking on the STL part. Petro-Bouwmeester-Parayko trio destroys Carolina’s D.

 

[HolyHagelin]

The more hockey I watch, the more I think puck luck is the #1 determiner in who wins the cup, as there are so many relatively even matchups that come down to who gets the bounce.

I think if you replay these past three NYR/CAR games 100 times there's as many times when Carolina's up 3-0 as there is New York. They've all been one goal games, with two overtime games, where absolutely anything can happen.

Money Puck's Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter (which I think is in an interesting calculation) had Carolina as the better team for Games 1 and 3 for what that's worth.

The moneypuck model and the ‘o meter have the rangers as a cellar dweller the last 3 years.

There are models out there that pick up on what makes the rangers tick and rate them closer to their standings performance, but surely those models have different flaws and we like them because they like our team.

 

[HolyHagelin]

I see a lot of talk here, on tv, in podcasts, about the canes pp failing. I love it.

Keep failing to credit a pk that is currently on a historic heater. Keep feeding the chips on their shoulders.

I love it.

 

[Lt Dan]

We can trade you wish.com Aho. Price is cheap!!!!!!!

OK. Straight up for PLD

 

[Frank Drebin]

How much better would they be with trochek at 2c?

 

[FoxyClean]

How much better would they be with trochek at 2c?

They would be up 3-0 right now.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

They're playing a team that's just better top to bottom, nothing really they can do.

 

[T REX]

Is it safe to say the Jesperi deal was a bust?

 

[KevinRedkey]

You’re joking on the STL part. Petro-Bouwmeester-Parayko trio destroys Carolina’s D.

It's almost as if a team is more than 3 players, but ok...

 

[catnip]

So, basically, they need better coaching, better goaltending, more game-breaking talent and goal-scoring, better special teams, better ownership/management, and a proper helping of killer instinct, mental fortitude and toughness. And luck. Also Rangerless postseasons, apparently. But other than that, they're close?

 

[PAZ]

They just need to bite the bullet and commit to a window.

Imagine the Canes if they had Trocheck and Hamilton instead of Kotkaniemi and Burns. They need to retain Guentzel, but they won't.

Instead they'll continue to manage their assets and go for plays like Kuzy, Kotka, etc. and be continuously competitive but not getting over the hump.

 

[emptyNedder]

They just need to bite the bullet and commit to a window.

Imagine the Canes if they had Trocheck and Hamilton instead of Kotkaniemi and Burns. They need to retain Guentzel, but they won't.

Instead they'll continue to manage their assets and go for plays like Kuzy, Kotka, etc. and be continuously competitive but not getting over the hump.

I think Carolina is a textbook example of how difficult it is to make adjustments to a strong core.

Going back before Torcheck and Hamilton--imagine if the Canes hadn't "sent a message" with Hanifin and Lindholm. If the Canes had done basically nothing (except move Skinner who seemingly wanted out), then this could be the current team:

Svech -- Aho--Teravainen
xxx -- Lindholm -- Necas
Loustarinen -- Staal -- Roy
Foegele -- xxx -- Lorentz

Hanifin -- Pesce
Slavin -- Faulk
Bean -- TVR

Of course, that team likely isn't cap-compliant. And as @DaveG pointed out doesn't have a true PP1 quarterback. But my point is taking a really good group of players and improving them significantly is difficult.

 

[Negan4Coach]

No elite forwards, no elite goaltending. Then again, elite forwards doesn't seem to help Toronto. Plus the way they win in the regular season- outworking the other teams night after night doesn't work in the playoffs, when the opposing team is just as amped up.

Not sure what the fix is. Adding Guentzal was the right move but clearly not enough.

 

[TheOrganist]

It's almost as if a team is more than 3 players, but ok...

Aho isn’t in 2019 ROR’s league. Tarasenko is a top 30 goal scorer in terms of goals per game in playoff history. I could go on but you get the point.

 

[PocketNines]

It's almost as if a team is more than 3 players, but ok...

Yeah the 2019 Blues were an extremely good team that each passing year correctly makes look more dangerous. Look at the roster of players, and the successes they have gone on to have elsewhere. The 2019 Blues had supporting players like Robert Thomas, Vince Dunn and Ivan Barbashev. Their rookie goalie turned out to be the franchise goalie for its history. Their captain became the only player to lead two different franchises in ice time to the Cup and he did it on first time clubs. You had guys like Alex Steen on the 4th line. Perron, Tarasenko, ROR, Schwartz, prime Schenn, prime Maroon factor. Tyler Bozak was on the third line and played a great swan song. The guys on the 2019 roster played a shit ton of NHL games in long careers.

The whole narrative about the Blues that year is wrong because hockey journalists are like high school level sophomore caliber writers and they couldn't resist the false "dead last" thing (.457 has never been 'dead last' in the NHL nor will it ever be, and indeed there were six significantly worse percentages on that day but we're too stupid in hockey world unlike the other major sports to grasp percentage versus raw points, it is Gorilla Time up in these brains). The Blues were preseason Cup favorites that year after the whole 2010s decade of being the West's top regular season team in wins.

 

[HolyHagelin]

Confirmed, that Blues team was awesome

 

[PAZ]

I think Carolina is a textbook example of how difficult it is to make adjustments to a strong core.

Going back before Torcheck and Hamilton--imagine if the Canes hadn't "sent a message" with Hanifin and Lindholm. If the Canes had done basically nothing (except move Skinner who seemingly wanted out), then this could be the current team:

Svech -- Aho--Teravainen
xxx -- Lindholm -- Necas
Loustarinen -- Staal -- Roy
Foegele -- xxx -- Lorentz

Hanifin -- Pesce
Slavin -- Faulk
Bean -- TVR

Of course, that team likely isn't cap-compliant. And as @DaveG pointed out doesn't have a true PP1 quarterback. But my point is taking a really good group of players and improving them significantly is difficult.

I agree to an extent. There is no guarantee to any move, but Carolina is simply risk averse.

They haven’t gone or won players that could significantly improve the team like Eichel, Meier, Tkachuk, etc. It could make the team worse or they could lose the trade - but that’s a chance the Canes need to take imo.

And I’m not saying it’s easy to make these trades, but the current cores window is closing soon. Carolina is one of the best drafting teams in the league, they can afford to ‘lose’ a trade.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I see a lot of talk here, on tv, in podcasts, about the canes pp failing. I love it.

Keep failing to credit a pk that is currently on a historic heater. Keep feeding the chips on their shoulders.

I love it.

You'd have a point if Carolina's PP wasn't historically terrible in the postseason. Literally every year, no matter who they face, their PP is garbage.

 

[mandiblesofdoom]

The moneypuck model and the ‘o meter have the rangers as a cellar dweller the last 3 years.

There are models out there that pick up on what makes the rangers tick and rate them closer to their standings performance, but surely those models have different flaws and we like them because they like our team.

MoneyPuck likes us this year a lot more than last.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Yeah the 2019 Blues were an extremely good team that each passing year correctly makes look more dangerous. Look at the roster of players, and the successes they have gone on to have elsewhere. The 2019 Blues had supporting players like Robert Thomas, Vince Dunn and Ivan Barbashev. Their rookie goalie turned out to be the franchise goalie for its history. Their captain became the only player to lead two different franchises in ice time to the Cup and he did it on first time clubs. You had guys like Alex Steen on the 4th line. Perron, Tarasenko, ROR, Schwartz, prime Schenn, prime Maroon factor. Tyler Bozak was on the third line and played a great swan song. The guys on the 2019 roster played a shit ton of NHL games in long careers.

The whole narrative about the Blues that year is wrong because hockey journalists are like high school level sophomore caliber writers and they couldn't resist the false "dead last" thing (.457 has never been 'dead last' in the NHL nor will it ever be, and indeed there were six significantly worse percentages on that day but we're too stupid in hockey world unlike the other major sports to grasp percentage versus raw points, it is Gorilla Time up in these brains). The Blues were preseason Cup favorites that year after the whole 2010s decade of being the West's top regular season team in wins.

Official 2018-19 pre-season betting odds for the Blues:
+3000 (T-11th)
O/U 97.5pts (Finished with 99)
For reference, that's about the same odds as the Bruins and Blues got for 2023-24.

Canes this year:
+900 (T-1st)
O/U: 106.5pts (Finished with 111)

All I said is the current Canes team is no worse than the Blues were, and that plenty of great rosters haven't won anything. I never 'put down' the Blues. I just used them as an example as a team that was good, and we able to put everything together at the right time (in reference to the Canes not doing so).

 

[PocketNines]

Official 2018-19 pre-season betting odds for the Blues:
+3000 (T-11th)
O/U 97.5pts (Finished with 99)
For reference, that's about the same odds as the Bruins and Blues got for 2023-24.

Canes this year:
+900 (T-1st)
O/U: 106.5pts (Finished with 111)

All I said is the current Canes team is no worse than the Blues were, and that plenty of great rosters haven't won anything. I never 'put down' the Blues. I just used them as an example as a team that was good, and we able to put everything together at the right time (in reference to the Canes not doing so).

The current Canes team is worse than the Blues were. That's why we're disagreeing.

Also the Blues were not the preseason 11th pick after the ROR trade, that is silly. They were a great roster that had been decimated by the wretched horrorshow that is Jake Allen and Doug Armstrong had the junkie fix for him until Binnington just broke him away.

I watch the Canes and love RBA and root for them as my adopted playoff team the last two years but they are not in this ballpark:

2018-2019 Blues roster GP

Bouwmeester 1240 regular, 74 playoffs, 17 NHL seasons + 1 lockout year, retired
Perron 1131 regular, 104 playoffs, 17 NHL seasons, active (missed 99 games due to Thornton)
ROR 1073 regular, 81 playoffs, 15 NHL seasons, active
Steen 1018 regular, 91 playoffs, 15 NHL seasons (would have played in lockout year too), retired
Pietrangelo 1016 regular, 139 playoffs, 14 full + 2 partial NHL seasons, active
Schenn 940 regular, 75 playoffs, 13 full + 2 partial NHL seasons, active
Bozak 814 regular season games, 68 playoffs, 13 NHL seasons, retired
Maroon 780 regular, 160 playoffs through Friday, 11 full + 2 partial NHL seasons, active
Tarasenko 753 regular, 105 playoffs through Friday (he scored), 12 NHL seasons, active (missed a lot due to injury)
Schwartz 730 regular, 102 playoffs, 12 full + 1 partial NHL seasons, active
Parayko 659 regular, 82 playoffs, 9 NHL seasons, active
Gunnarsson 629 regular, 68 playoffs, 12 NHL seasons, retired
Bortuzzo 560 regular, 60 playoffs, 12 full + 2 partial NHL seasons, active
Edmundson 530 regular, 82 playoffs, 9 NHL seasons, active
Barbashev 515 regular, 79 playoffs, 8 NHL seasons, active
Dunn 480 regular, 43 playoffs, 7 NHL seasons, active
Sundqvist 426 regular, 37 playoffs, 7 full + 2 partial NHL seasons, active
Fabbri 398 regular 30 playoffs, 8 NHL seasons 1 fully missed, active
Thomas 396 regular, 45 playoffs, 6 NHL seasons, active
Sanford 334 regular, 35 playoffs, 8 kinda NHL seasons, semi-active
Binnington 280 regular, 41 playoffs, 6 NHL seasons, active
Blais 257 regular, 27 playoffs, 7 NHL seasons, active

Was a Word Hero those playoffs apparently:
Allen 429 regular, 29 playoffs, 11 NHL seasons, active

 

[647Hockey]

IMO that Blue teams won the cup because Binnington came out of nowhere and put up Hasek numbers.

The following seasons he came back down to reality and Blues never came close again.

 

[Dicky113]

They just aren’t very good. Very vanilla. They do everything ok but don’t have a core to push into top 4 in spring. They’re just, blah. They remind me of the jets

 

[Nogatco Rd]

no need to host funerals for those that aren't dead

I said the same thing after Jeffrey Epstein “died”