What's Preventing The Hurricanes From Taking That Next Step?

[GrkFlyersFan]

It feels like every year luck is not on Carolina's side. Rangers fans are trying to minimize what Shesterkin is doing, but that's a lot of it in this case. However, they've been good long enough to say they're just unlucky. So I'll say it's finish, something they tried to address by getting Guentzel, but they need more. Their starters in this stretch have been Mrazek and now Andersen. They could use an upgrade there, maybe win some of those tighter games. They're not far off though.

 

[winnipegger]

They are and have been the definition of a team that is good but not great.

 

[Rowlet]

Oh Jesus.

they also had the same amount of SOG last night

 

[BB88]

Elite team, zero elite players

They are and have been the definition of a team that is good but not great.

As a team they are at the top, on individual level nope
Hard to go all the way when you lack the game breakers

 

[hangman005]

lack the kind of dman that can run the PP. They lose the special teams battle EVERY. SINGLE. f***ING. YEAR. And the one thing they've lacked there has been a PPQB

Tony's not that guy, though he's the closest on the roster

Burns is a trigger man, not a QB

Want a Pietrangelo.... we have a Pietrangelo we can give you.

 

[Whoot Whoot]

I wonder what next year's hurricanes look like - so many FA's gone

 

[hangman005]

Jeff Daniels.

Rod desperately needs to find an assistant coach that will help him make better adjustments to the power play, and frankly the offense as a whole. Daniels isn't the answer. He was a lousy coach in Charlotte with the Checkers and he isn't any better now.

There's other factors, but finally cutting ties with this dude would be a start.

Not really sure what they expected.... unless they hired the wrong Jeff Daniels

 

[apollo18]

there gm thinks he’s the smartest in the room by not trading strong picks. You can’t win cups by trying to cheap out with draft capital

You wanan win? Then be ready to trade Nishikin + other top prospects

Guent and kuzy trade was good but no reason to not trade a top prospect for a top playoff threat

 

[torniojaws]

They seem to be a team of Ovechkins. Tears it up during regular season, but disappears when the actual games begin. Lack of will to win, and lack of grit to get things done.

 

[NotCommitted]

As a team they are at the top, on individual level nope
Hard to go all the way when you lack the game breakers

TL;DR - I think they need to adjust a bit and be more varied and opportunistic in their offense and not just always prioritize the cycle and zonetime. Sacrificing some depth for more top-end talent could also help.

It's true their top-end talent is not great, though I'd argue Aho is underrated, but they've turned him into a grinder (which is not a negative per se), Necas is a really speedy guy who could be great off the rush, TT might not be a top end guy in any team but he's capable of some very creative plays but seems more like a shutdown specialist now etc.

It looks like coaching wants zero risk to go for a rush play and they'll just always set up a cycle even if there was an opportunity to go for it. I swear sometimes it looks like they have more rush chances on the PK, where they actually might go for it aggressively.

The upside is they are great at generating "predictable" offense with their system but they to win that way they need to be always the harder working team on ice. That 7OT (or whatever) game vs the Panthers last playoffs was a good anecdote on that, several OTs in you could see all the Canes players completely gassed staring into the distance with an empty look on their face while Panthers were laughing and chatting on the bench.

It's not like it's all bad and if you look at the roster maybe it's true they are overachieving during reg season and performing more to their level in the playoffs and there's about 20 teams in the league who'd love to be the Canes and always be in the playoffs and in the mix. It's not like making it to conference finals last season and losing to a great NYR team in the 2nd round now are some disasters.

 

[2014nyr]

no need to host funerals for those that aren't dead

 

[tapi]

The team is not built for a Cup run. The mistakes have been pointed out but they seem content to keep being a good regular season team.

 

[Mathieu]

I mean yes they're down 3-0, but they've lost 2 games in OT and the other one only by a goal.. With a little more luck the serie could be 2-1 Carolina right now and this thread would have never been created. There's a lot of luck involved in NHL playoffs.

 

[Moridin]

I don't see the difference betwen them and the Leafs.

Pretty damn good teams, but a step below great teams, and simply can't handle better teams in the playoffs.

 

[paragon]

I'm not saying they're definitely finished this year, but they're obviously in very big trouble.

Looking back, this team seems to have a hard time in the playoffs against other strong teams. This year they're down 3-0 to the Rangers. The Rangers also beat them in 2022, though that was a seven game series. FLA swept them last year. Tampa beat them in five en route to a second straight Cup. When Bergeron and Krejci were still around, the Bruins beat them quickly in 2019 and 2020.

The team looks very good and well-rounded on paper and is consistently good in terms of things like possession and shot differential. What's keeping the Hurricanes from reaching the next level?

It's no shame to lose to Rangers. It's not like the series hasn't been close. I'm willing to bet Rangers win the Stanley Cup this year. They have great special teams and the hottest goalie. All the teams from West have more or less suspect goaltending.

 

[Caps8112]

probably unpopular opinion but when your best guy is Aho, thats the problem. yea he tore up the reg season but the Canes lack "the" guy who comes through in big games. Aho is a great player but he seems to lack the gamebreaker level. the rest of the canes offense is a tier below Aho. Look at the rangers for example. When the grade A chances are showing up their stars are finishing them. Some of that is luck and some of it is having that guy or a couple of those guys that rarely miss when the chance comes. Also think the canes are always lacking in net. Lastly they are playing the presidents trophy winner so its nothing to be really down about. 3 one goal losses doesnt signal blowing it up.

for all the haters out there, the canes have scored 1 more goal against them in 3 games then the caps did in 4. Shesterkin is good.

 

[Tawnos]

I mean yes they're down 3-0, but they've lost 2 games in OT and the other one only by a goal.. With a little more luck the serie could be 2-1 Carolina right now and this thread would have never been created. There's a lot of luck involved in NHL playoffs.

This thread exists because that seems to be the story every single year. When you look at how luck goes against them, and then you look at how their whole offensive system is based on luck, it’s fair to question why it seems to happen every year.

---

I posted this in the series thread before seeing this one. It’s probably more appropriate here.

Series isn’t over and I’ll be surprised if there’s another sweep, but the whole problem the Canes seem to have is all about approach. Their offensive game pretty much relies entirely on probabilities. The more pucks at the goal, the higher the probability of a goal.

I think there are three problems with this approach

1) In a small sample like a playoff series, a goalie can turn the probabilities on their head

2) Probabilities don’t manifest uniformly in a small sample either. In other words, you’re not going to score 4 goals on every set of 50 shot attempts. You might score 8 on one set and then 2 on the next two sets. (Numbers are just for illustration)

3) Training a team to rely on probabilities also trains them not to will pucks into the net. In other words, it reduces their ability to come up with clutch scoring.

I do think we’ve seen all three of those things be issues in every series the Canes end up losing. Statistically, the playoffs aren’t really one 4 round sample if you go that far. They’re 4 samples of 4-7 games each. Not to say it can’t turn. That can happen with those same probabilities. The issue now is that even if it does… winning 4 straight is going to be tough.

I was curious to see if having Svechnikov healthy and getting Guentzel and Kuznetsov would help them overcome those problems. So far, no dice. It's looking like a problem with the strategy, not the roster.

 

[Mickey Marner]

They could use another Aho-level player, a better goalie and their defense shoots way, way too much.

At 5v5, 41.6% of their shot attempts came from their defense vs 34.2% league average. Brett Pesce, who should almost not shoot at all, had more shot attempts than Sebastian Aho. The Canes have had a goaltending disadvantage in every series they’ve lost, a trend that can no longer be ignored.

They need to shift their focus to generating offense from their forwards in prime scoring locations, instead of shooting for tips, deflections etc. from the perimeter. If they did and got Aho a great playmaker I honestly think he could score 50. It’s time to stop nickel and diming in the crease, go out and get a reliable goalie who doesn’t let in momentum shifting goals.

 

[BLNY]

Lack of finish.

Watching the game last night, they had their 1-0 lead in the second, were getting a lot of chances but not finishing, and I said to myself it was going to come back and bite them. I barely finished the thought when Kreider scored the shorty.

Guentzel is doing his part. It's the core group. Aho, Necas, Svechnikov, and others need to step it up.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

For all the talk about Aho and Svech needing to step up, they (along with Guenztal) are PPG or higher in these playoffs. Hell, Aho has 6 points in these 3 games against the Rangers.

The issue is their depth, not their star players.

 

[Mathews28]

I mean, according to many Canes fans the Rangers were going to get waxed by this team. So I guess the answer is... yes?

Wouldn’t put stock in what the fans post in terms of predictions. That’s emotion, brevity, trolling, etc. it’s meaningless.

 

[BB88]

TL;DR - I think they need to adjust a bit and be more varied and opportunistic in their offense and not just always prioritize the cycle and zonetime. Sacrificing some depth for more top-end talent could also help.

It's true their top-end talent is not great, though I'd argue Aho is underrated, but they've turned him into a grinder (which is not a negative per se), Necas is a really speedy guy who could be great off the rush, TT might not be a top end guy in any team but he's capable of some very creative plays but seems more like a shutdown specialist now etc.

It looks like coaching wants zero risk to go for a rush play and they'll just always set up a cycle even if there was an opportunity to go for it. I swear sometimes it looks like they have more rush chances on the PK, where they actually might go for it aggressively.

The upside is they are great at generating "predictable" offense with their system but they to win that way they need to be always the harder working team on ice. That 7OT (or whatever) game vs the Panthers last playoffs was a good anecdote on that, several OTs in you could see all the Canes players completely gassed staring into the distance with an empty look on their face while Panthers were laughing and chatting on the bench.

It's not like it's all bad and if you look at the roster maybe it's true they are overachieving during reg season and performing more to their level in the playoffs and there's about 20 teams in the league who'd love to be the Canes and always be in the playoffs and in the mix. It's not like making it to conference finals last season and losing to a great NYR team in the 2nd round now are some disasters.

I’m not saying Aho isn’t a great player but you know you can’t put him on the same category as players like Mackinnon, Rantanen, McDavid, Drai, Tkachuk, Barkov, Pasta when it’s go time. For regular season he’s absolutely good enough to be the best player on a top tier team but lacks that final gear for playoffs

You can change the system but the end result is still the same, they have zero players who could take the series over when it’s time to win the Cup, against weaker teams on the 1st round for sure but we’ve seen it for years that against elite teams they more often become ghosts (0-12 in the Eastern finals) and don’t deliver. & we keep hearing how frustratingly close games the Canes keep losing

 

[Fatass]

Imo the Canes play a certain way during the season that includes being hard on and off pucks. Then when the playoffs come they don’t have much room to raise their level of play. Other clubs have played hard during the season too but seem to have held some back leaving more room for a playoff bump. Canes can’t match it. Maybe it’s how much RB demands during the season?

 

[Hockeyholic]

They are missing that McDrai, MacKinnon, even Pastrnak level player. Someone who can take a game over or needs one shot from anywhere to score.

They have alot of good players. Nothing elite.

They don't have the goaltending to bail them out either.

 

[FinlandPanther]

I thought Aho was a big deal.

Aho is an excellent player but he’s not going to be the guy who gets in the blue paint and fights for every inch while hitting everything in sight. He’s just not built that way.