I would take the guy my scouts thought was the best player. If that was Jones I would take Jones. If it was Nate M, I would take him.
Either way, I would at the same time be looking to move another asset (Buff?) to get a player in a position of need. If the plan was to take Jones, I would try to move buff for a top forward. If the plan was to take Nate, I would still look to move Buff for a forward, but with Nate and Scheifele, I would be more inclined to try to get a 2nd line winger and a 3/4 LHD type return.
Of course, If my scouts really liked all of the top 4, I would take offers from each of the other 3 teams in case one of them REALLY wanted Jones. The Avalanche come to mind as a team that could use Jones in a huge way on and off the ice. If they wanted to blow me away with an offer of the 3rd pick plus something else meaningful, that would be interesting. I don't know if I would want to trade the pick away totally, you would have to get something obscene for that. But a trade down to a team in the top 4 that is desperate might be nice.
I would have no problem taking Jones and building around Bogo, Trouba, and Jones, or taking Mackinnon and going with Mackinnon and Scheiflele in the future.
Pretty win win all around. The only way you could lose is if you let a team fleece you in a trade.