What would you do if you were GM?

[Xerloris]

Binnington's competitive fire is a negative. Berube had to tell him to knock that shit off. His calm confidence can be an asset but when the the fire turns to childish antics it tends to burn him down more than fuel him. People here overrate Binnington by a ton. It's not like he is a vezina trophy winner. Even the metrics that take into count playing in front of a poor defense have him as as barely a top 10 goalie. Hofer playing behind the same D had better stats. There is a difference bewteen a starter's load and a backup, but Hofer is a also a rookie. Let's not act like Binnington is some once in a lifteime goalie.

Who gives a f*** about the vezina when plenty of vezina winners would trade it in a heart beat for what Binnington has, you know, a cup.

Fire Armstrong

I would go in with a chainsaw and right all the wrongs the last few years. I would sell off every roster player not named Thomas or Neighbours . We do have some decent prospects. Tank and rebuild baby!!!!

 

[kimzey59]

I put myself down for option 2 but I agree with the concept of a combination of 1 and 2.

IMO you bring in a player or two to fill some gaps(a #2 c and a top 4 LHD) and sell guys off as the prospects prove they're ready.
I like our prospect pool enough that I'm not quite willing to go the chainsaw route.

I think we have more than a few guys that will still be very viable as our next competitive window opens up(Thomas, Kyrou, Binny) and I don't think it's a a good idea to let them fall into a loser mentality if we can avoid it. I trust our scouting department enough to find some gems even with picks in the teens(the track record is there). Team culture is a real thing.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Blueline is absolutely loaded with NTC's, wtf.

 

[Thallis]

Binnington's competitive fire is a negative. Berube had to tell him to knock that shit off. His calm confidence can be an asset but when the the fire turns to childish antics it tends to burn him down more than fuel him. People here overrate Binnington by a ton. It's not like he is a vezina trophy winner. Even the metrics that take into count playing in front of a poor defense have him as as barely a top 10 goalie. Hofer playing behind the same D had better stats. There is a difference bewteen a starter's load and a backup, but Hofer is a also a rookie. Let's not act like Binnington is some once in a lifteime goalie.

He's 2nd on ClearSight analytics (One of the official private models you have to be an NHL team or journalist to access) in GSAx. He's been phenomenal this season and absolutely should be in the discussion for a Vezina nomination.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Binnington's competitive fire is a negative. Berube had to tell him to knock that shit off. His calm confidence can be an asset but when the the fire turns to childish antics it tends to burn him down more than fuel him. People here overrate Binnington by a ton. It's not like he is a vezina trophy winner. Even the metrics that take into count playing in front of a poor defense have him as as barely a top 10 goalie. Hofer playing behind the same D had better stats. There is a difference bewteen a starter's load and a backup, but Hofer is an also a rookie. Let's not act like Binnington is some once in a lifteime goalie.

“barely a top 10 goalie”? Does he have to be the best goalie on the world to get credit? At any given point in the Blues history, I’d be thrilled with a Top 10 starter.

You’re talking about a couple silly media amplified moments. How many times (and this season is a good example) did Binnington show up with intensity that the rest of the team lacked? It spreads to other players. It sets a good example for our rookie backup on how to prepare day in day out. This is exactly the type of intensity that Allen never seemed to bring consistently.

If this team over performed this year, and they did from what they were projected to do, the one player most responsible for that is Binnington. His age may not line up with the next competitive window as well as you’d like, and on paper maybe you can get more salary efficiency by turning the job over to Hofer, but Binnington has some intangibles that are good for the team and aren’t being replaced elsewhere on the roster right now. It’s the same swagger that spread through the team when he took the job in 2019.

 

[PocketNines]

"Draft the future 1D in '26 or '27" is such a terrible plan if you understand hockey and how development timing works. But I am not surprised

Also Binnington is the best goalie the Blues have ever had for his real career, and it is not even close

 

[Hrkac Circus]

The whole “re-tool” and try to compete for a playoff spot” sounded great until we barely missed the playoffs and got stuck in the 16 draft spot. Now it’s a feeling of “ugh, this SUCKS!” I like the idea a lot better when we either hit and make the playoffs or miss and end up in the 8 spot. Here’s hoping next season we do one of those.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Disagree.
Our future #1 D most likely isn't even in the discussion as a potential draft pick just yet. It will probably be somebody in the '26 or '27 Draft. I expect that to be around the time of our "hiccup" year as the young forwards start taking the reigns(meaning; team wide regression as the young kids adjust to increased roles dropping us to a top 5-10 Draft pick).

In that scenario, you're talking ... 3 more years? 4 more years? of the team trying to limp through, with a semi-bottom out year that's 2-3 years out. Which, I don't disagree with, but in that timeline the heat under Armstrong's seat is going to get cranked up past 11 and I don't see him being around at the end.

 

[kimzey59]

In that scenario, you're talking ... 3 more years? 4 more years? of the team trying to limp through, with a semi-bottom out year that's 2-3 years out. Which, I don't disagree with, but in that timeline the heat under Armstrong's seat is going to get cranked up past 11 and I don't see him being around at the end.

We probably won't be considered a real "contender" but I think we manage to limp into the PO's the next 2 years.
And that probably buys Army enough rope to see this "re-whatever" through.

 

[Majorityof1]

He's 2nd on ClearSight analytics (One of the official private models you have to be an NHL team or journalist to access) in GSAx. He's been phenomenal this season and absolutely should be in the discussion for a Vezina nomination.

I don't have access to those sites, obviously. Not sure how you do? Are you Jeremy Ruthe.....nah, you're opinion are way more informed. Who is Thallis?

I do wonder what factors they take into account, and why it is so different than the public model. Natural stat trick has him 10th in all situations GSAA, and like not even close to #2.

The Vezina is generally determined by the public stats. 8th in SV%, 10th in GSAA , 13th in quality starts does not get you serious vezina consideration (38+ games). We shall see.

“barely a top 10 goalie”? Does he have to be the best goalie on the world to get credit? At any given point in the Blues history, I’d be thrilled with a Top 10 starter.

You’re talking about a couple silly media amplified moments. How many times (and this season is a good example) did Binnington show up with intensity that the rest of the team lacked? It spreads to other players. It sets a good example for our rookie backup on how to prepare day in day out. This is exactly the type of intensity that Allen never seemed to bring consistently.

If this team over performed this year, and they did from what they were projected to do, the one player most responsible for that is Binnington. His age may not line up with the next competitive window as well as you’d like, and on paper maybe you can get more salary efficiency by turning the job over to Hofer, but Binnington has some intangibles that are good for the team and aren’t being replaced elsewhere on the roster right now. It’s the same swagger that spread through the team when he took the job in 2019.

He has to be one of the top 5 or so goalies in the world consistently to be untradeable for the right price.. If we can get a mid-first and prospect with a chance to be a good top 4 D, I'm trading him.

I have watched 95+% of every pro game he has ever played, and several of his AHL games. Its far more than the media moments. When he gets fiery (trying to start fights, chirping at other players, etc) his performance declines. When he stays calm and cool, he is on his game. "Do I look nervous?" = Shutout. Pushing a guy out of the crease and running across the ice to fight the other goalie = he's getting pulled in the next 10 minutes. His "fire" has only spread to the team one other time because he got ejected, and he was not still in goal to f*** it up. He is at his best when you are not seeing his "intensity." Why do you thin Berube told him multiple times to knock that shit off, and why do you think he is having a good season this year when he is not doing it. Other goalies have intensity they just don't try to start fights with it.

If you are comparing intensity to consistency, I really have to disagree with you. Where was the consistency last year? He has a career quality start percentage of .529 according to hockey-reference. And they list ,530 as NHL average for that stat. He was only 13th this season in QS%, and this is the year that he is awesome.

Let's not act like Binnington willed a bottom 5 team into the playoffs. First, we didn't make the playoffs. 2nd we are not a bottom 5 team. He was a part of our overperforming, but not all of it. Hofer put up just as good of stats. If we can get a solid D out of him, that would help us not need someone to overperform. In addition, the rookie Hofer put up very similar numbers, he averaged ever so slightly more points per start. So its not like Binnington did it all on his own.

 

[PocketNines]

A ton of things broke right for the Blues to finish 9th in the conference including a strong year from both goalies and escaping the injury bug and a great OT record

In the next couple years the forwards will become more exciting and productive due to new arrivals – can't wait for Stenberg personally – but unless Kessel emerges to truly anchor one of the top two pairs I can see the Blues D being really uneven and vulnerable. They are like an 8th-11th conference team.

They have a lot of pieces in the event they landed a true 1D, but if they draft him in 3 or 4 drafts then you are talking 6 to 7 years before he begins to be that true anchor. That's too long a time frame to hold it all together while waiting.

Like NBA fans waiting for their linchpin impact player to contend, like NFL fans waiting for a real QB, we are just essentially waiting for that 1D impact player to galvanize what's here and in the immediate prospect pipeline. But they do not have forever to find him. In hockey windows 6 to 7 years is forever since the people running things now won't be running them then if it takes that long. That's much more true pressure than "attendance will plunge to nothing because our dumb fans can't abide a rebuild" since we have counterevidence of bottoming out, rebuilding, and winning a Cup with those drafted players.

 

[Celtic Note]

There really isn’t an option for what I would do, as I don’t think an all or nothing approach makes sense given the clubs desire to be competitive sooner than later.

I think I have a somewhat similar approach to what @bleedblue1223 outlined, but I would have started last offseason. Bottoming out this year would have been preferable so we could have started building this off-season and not ate into another of the prime years of Thomas and Kyrou, but it didn’t happen and here we are drafting 16th and not playing in the playoffs. I think we wasted time trying to get Sanheim and trading for Hayes last offseason, to try to make this a playoff team. Instead we should have continued to purge IMO. We still need assets especially since we will probably have to trade for that #1D we need. We would have benefited from another top 10 pick this year and if that had happened, moving guys that have NMCs would have been easier (assuming we didn’t move them last offseason).

Now I think we have to consider doing continued selling this off-season (though I think we will double down in some fashion). The only way I can see avoiding a pure sell off approach (and I am not saying everyone) is if we can land a #1D this off-season without pillaging the pool of youth too much. It seems like that would be hard to do. But, we have to try as it will could take years to find that guy, if ever within this next core’s emergence.

I think we have to move Buch now. He is the only one left that returns a 1st plus. If that’s what you get then take it, but I would try getting a young D in return even if it means not getting a first. If it’s a potential #1D, that requires adding an asset to Buch, then do what you have to do. We need to start swinging for the fences for a #1D. I am skeptical that happens in a Buch trade, but he is our best chance outside of a Kyrou or a top prospect swap.

I would try to move Krug. I would take back an overpriced player in return assuming the AAV isn’t much higher than Krug’s and has less term. Or, if he cost significantly more than Krug he and addresses a middle 6 center or younger D need. I wouldn’t move Krug at the expense of a 1st or 2nd, but I would do a 3rd plus a lower end asset. Use any cap savings to find a cheap, defensively sound D as a placeholder if we are not taking back cap in that trade.

I would also consider moving Schenn or Hayes, Faulk (if it looks like there is no way to move Krug within the next two years) and Saad if we find the right value.

If we land a center that is overpaid in an exchange of overpriced contracts, then I think we need to move Hayes depending on the player and contract. I don’t want to load up center with mediocre players and block spaces for young guys 2 years from now. I thank that’s a rough ETA for Dvo.

I would absolutely cut bait on Kapenen, Vrana, Scandella and Blais. I think Army had the right idea going for change of scenery, diamond in the rough type players. They were the wrong players, but I would try again this off-season to find a couple of those guys. I would also consider aging vets that can bring a high level of leadership/development support, but who won’t play prominent roles and will only require a low, very short term deal to secure.

This approach is in response to where we are and what seems to be an ownership requirement to not suck too long. It isn’t necessarily my preferred path. I also would add that cutting bait on overpriced contracts is also to soften the financial bleeding that seemingly will happen with a drop in competitiveness, in addition to providing space to acquire the right high AAV assets and some flexibility for taking on aging contracts with minimal term.

 

[Thallis]

I don't have access to those sites, obviously. Not sure how you do? Are you Jeremy Ruthe.....nah, you're opinion are way more informed. Who is Thallis?

I do wonder what factors they take into account, and why it is so different than the public model. Natural stat trick has him 10th in all situations GSAA, and like not even close to #2.

The Vezina is generally determined by the public stats. 8th in SV%, 10th in GSAA , 13th in quality starts does not get you serious vezina consideration (38+ games). We shall see.

I don't have access, but Kevin Woodley mentioned it a week or so ago on the Hockey PDOcast in regards to vezina candidates not named Hellebuck. ClearSight's xGF model is different because it tracks puck movement before shots and factors it into the evaluation of chance danger. From what I've seen it's much better at identifying the volume shooting outliers vs quality than the public models which makes it frustrating that I can't just pull data as I please.

 

[Xerloris]

I don't have access to those sites, obviously. Not sure how you do? Are you Jeremy Ruthe.....nah, you're opinion are way more informed. Who is Thallis?

I do wonder what factors they take into account, and why it is so different than the public model. Natural stat trick has him 10th in all situations GSAA, and like not even close to #2.

The Vezina is generally determined by the public stats. 8th in SV%, 10th in GSAA , 13th in quality starts does not get you serious vezina consideration (38+ games). We shall see.


He has to be one of the top 5 or so goalies in the world consistently to be untradeable for the right price.. If we can get a mid-first and prospect with a chance to be a good top 4 D, I'm trading him.

I have watched 95+% of every pro game he has ever played, and several of his AHL games. Its far more than the media moments. When he gets fiery (trying to start fights, chirping at other players, etc) his performance declines. When he stays calm and cool, he is on his game. "Do I look nervous?" = Shutout. Pushing a guy out of the crease and running across the ice to fight the other goalie = he's getting pulled in the next 10 minutes. His "fire" has only spread to the team one other time because he got ejected, and he was not still in goal to f*** it up. He is at his best when you are not seeing his "intensity." Why do you thin Berube told him multiple times to knock that shit off, and why do you think he is having a good season this year when he is not doing it. Other goalies have intensity they just don't try to start fights with it.

If you are comparing intensity to consistency, I really have to disagree with you. Where was the consistency last year? He has a career quality start percentage of .529 according to hockey-reference. And they list ,530 as NHL average for that stat. He was only 13th this season in QS%, and this is the year that he is awesome.

Let's not act like Binnington willed a bottom 5 team into the playoffs. First, we didn't make the playoffs. 2nd we are not a bottom 5 team. He was a part of our overperforming, but not all of it. Hofer put up just as good of stats. If we can get a solid D out of him, that would help us not need someone to overperform. In addition, the rookie Hofer put up very similar numbers, he averaged ever so slightly more points per start. So its not like Binnington did it all on his own.

To be fair he did will a bottom 5 team to the playoffs, maybe you remember 2019?

I like how you're acting like some of the greatest goalies in history didn't lose their shit and fight and do some crazy shit.

Plante
Hall
Liut
Cujo
Fuhr
Binnington

The greatest goalies in Blues history and not all of them are because of stats. The fact you want to get rid of one of the best we have ever had, if not the best all because you don't like his "antics" when they are literally nothing compared to what I and many other grew up expecting from goalies is frankly pathetic. Binnington is tame compared to what most of us grew up with.

 

[Mike Liut]

Trade Buch
Trade Faulk, Krug, Saad for anything you can get. Need more cap

Draft BPA with all the picks. Keep the rebuild going.

 

[Blueston]

To be fair he did will a bottom 5 team to the playoffs, maybe you remember 2019?

I like how you're acting like some of the greatest goalies in history didn't lose their shit and fight and do some crazy shit, shit that Binnington has not even come close to doing.

37​

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19​

12​

8​

​

0.590​

85​

2.17​

1187​

0.928​

8​

0​

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20​

30.3​

​

2.80​

0.63​

2.5​

25.0​

42.8​

0.626​

24​

15​

1.01​

17%​

37%​

46%​

-0.08​

-1.4%​

Jacques Plante

is binny all that different in demeanor than billy smith or patrick roy? probably more restrained. sometimes his temper serves him and sometimes it doesn't, but i'd be much more comfortable going into playoffs with binny than many of the guys who will be starting for their teams.

 

[Xerloris]

is binny all that different in demeanor than billy smith or patrick roy? probably more restrained. sometimes his temper serves him and sometimes it doesn't, but i'd be much more comfortable going into playoffs with binny than many of the guys who will be starting for their teams.

Nooooo, you quoted me before I could get rid of that stupid graph. Anyway he is very different because he's tame calm and collected compared to some of the greatest.

 

[Xerloris]

We could have this guy and Majority would want to trade him because he doesn't like his antics.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I want to see if there is a deal we can make for a defenseman between 20-23 centered around our 1st round pick.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I don't have access, but Kevin Woodley mentioned it a week or so ago on the Hockey PDOcast in regards to vezina candidates not named Hellebuck. ClearSight's xGF model is different because it tracks puck movement before shots and factors it into the evaluation of chance danger. From what I've seen it's much better at identifying the volume shooting outliers vs quality than the public models which makes it frustrating that I can't just pull data as I please.

Yea there's a huge difference in some of the analytics. Naturalstattrick and Moneypuck have Binner around 10th in GSAA, but Evolving hockey has him like 2nd or 3rd. The Athletic seems to favor Evolving Hockey, for what it's worth.

Binner has absolutely had a Vezina quality season. Helly will win, and rightfully so, but Binner should be a finalist.

 

[taylord22]

I wouldn’t be selecting -where we currently are- with our 1st. I'm probably trying to move my 1st+ to move up in the draft (unlikely), or for a d-man that's log-jammed and/or has an ill timed expiry.

I imagine we'll explore moving Kyrou, but with most of our blue chips being several years away still, that carries extra risk. You have to be sure the other player coming back is the best player in the deal. But if you can find a dance partner to bring in a legit top pair D, you increase the floor significantly.

However, I see the former approach as the more likely scenario. You can afford to be wrong trading away the 16th pick (especially with 2- 2nds). E.g. I would be looking to bring in a guy like Buium (2nd rounder, D+3, unsigned and log jammed with Det) for a pick + a guy like Perunovich. There's something there with Perunovich, it's just not with this team. And he would be a decent replacement for Gost that they could use as a 7th in the worst case.

Maybe that's not enough. Maybe Buium is not the guy. But those are the deals I would be after.

And I don't think I'd be shy about using futures for another "lottery ticket". Doesn't have to be of the same "blue chip" ilk, it just needs to be someone our scouting team likes and meets the physical (and age) characteristics of what we need better. Hague. Broberg. Even a Boquist. All have varying levels of declining value for their teams. (Hague certainly has a HUGE opportunity to cement himself this year, though).

I wouldn't worry about up-front too much. That's where the lottery tickets currently are, in masse. The two questions I think you have to figure out are: 1.) Can Buch -truly- play C for a whole year? Does the (whoever he is) coach fully buy into that plan? and 2.) is Saad too much of a luxury to have?

The last one doesn't fit with the other things we generally discuss, I know, but Saad and Toropchenko are two players that likely carry a shocking amount of value (especially retained). Im not terribly interested in losing him, but there are contending teams out there that might swap a blue chip RFA for a cost controlled player like Saad.

Torpo is just an enigma of sorts that has the floor of a guy that EVERY team in the playoffs would kill to have in their bottom 6. And a ceiling that seems to nudge up every year. It's why we should keep him, but if the thought ever turns to blowing it up, he'd be another luxury player that doesn't make a ton of sense to pay a premium for. Though, his attitude is certainly something that I think cements him as a fixture.

Buch — If he could Steen his way at C until Dvorsky is ready, I would hold onto him unless someone blows you away with an offer. Nothing in F/A is going to be better in terms of the guys actually willing to come here. And your worst case is you trade him at the deadline. I just don't think there's a rush here unless he wants out and/or doesn't want to play C.

Outside of those, you're talking the unpredictables..."what are we doing with Faulk/Krug"; and the inconsequentials..."what are we going to do with Kevin Hayes"...maybe someone wants him in a package, but it's not the end of the world running a 4th line with Hayes/Sunny/Torpo-Walker.

 

[LGB]

At this point I'd like us to re-sign Buch. If we were going to get the big package for him it would have come at the deadline. I think he's really important to our lineup right now with his ability to center Kyrou effectively. This could be a pretty good team as soon as 25-26 with more progression from the young guys currently on the roster and good rookie seasons from Dvorsky and Snuggerud.

 

[Majorityof1]

At this point I'd like us to re-sign Buch. If we were going to get the big package for him it would have come at the deadline. I think he's really important to our lineup right now with his ability to center Kyrou effectively. This could be a pretty good team as soon as 25-26 with more progression from the young guys currently on the roster and good rookie seasons from Dvorsky and Snuggerud.

Why would Buchnevich want to re-sign here? We aren't a contender and he has no cup. We aren't going to outbid people on what he could make as a UFA. We won't offer an NMC. I don't know who his friends on the team are, but we jettisoned all the other Russians. He has seemed checked out since the TDL, which could mean he wanted out (big speculation there). I just don't see him wanting to sign here for the length and AAV we'd be happy with, much less Army.

 

[LGB]

Why would Buchnevich want to re-sign here? We aren't a contender and he has no cup. We aren't going to outbid people on what he could make as a UFA. We won't offer an NMC. I don't know who his friends on the team are, but we jettisoned all the other Russians. He has seemed checked out since the TDL, which could mean he wanted out (big speculation there). I just don't see him wanting to sign here for the length and AAV we'd be happy with, much less Army.

Definitely possible he doesn't want to re-sign, but who knows.

 

[Celtic Note]

No matter what the preferred direction, this is both going to be a critical offseason/next trade deadline and a telling one. I don’t think we can be unproductive this summer.