What would you do: Buyout or deal with it

[Stylizer1]

Would you rather buyout Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf and have less to spend on our roster or keep them and trade off other players and go young/cheap?

Bobby Ryan

2018-19	$5,500,000	$7,250,000	$1,833,333	$3,666,667	$3,583,333
2019-20	$5,500,000	$7,250,000	$1,833,333	$3,666,667	$3,583,333
2020-21	$5,500,000	$7,250,000	$1,833,333	$3,666,667	$3,583,333
2021-22	$5,500,000	$7,250,000	$1,833,333	$3,666,667	$3,583,333
2022-23	$0	$0	$1,833,333	-$1,833,333	$1,833,333
2023-24	$0	$0	$1,833,333	-$1,833,333	$1,833,333
2024-25	$0	$0	$1,833,333	-$1,833,333	$1,833,333
2025-26	$0	$0	$1,833,333	-$1,833,333	$1,833,333

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Dion Phaneuf

SEASON	SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	ACTUAL COST	SAVINGS	BUYOUT CAP HIT
2018-19	$5,500,000	$7,000,000	$1,555,556	$3,944,444	$3,055,556
2019-20	$5,500,000	$7,000,000	$1,555,556	$3,944,444	$3,055,556
2020-21	$3,000,000	$7,000,000	$1,555,556	$1,444,444	$5,555,556
2021-22	$0	$0	$1,555,556	-$1,555,556	$1,555,556
2022-23	$0	$0	$1,555,556	-$1,555,556	$1,555,556
2023-24	$0	$0	$1,555,556	-$1,555,556	$1,555,556

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Chances are Phaneuf has the best chance to trade of the 2 but if it came down to this ultimatum which would you choose?

Click to read more...

 

[Benjamin]

Buyout Ryan.

Keep Phaneuf.

We just need Ryan gone and know one will touch him without us losing Colin White. We need a massive change going into next season and this would be one. Move on from that massive mistake.

Keep Phaneuf for another year then re-consider a buyout. We still need some Dman to eat up minutes. He still brings worth to the team.


People always claim buyouts are waste because the replacement will use up the saved money. So what if it costs the same? Its shake up desperately needed. Or just promote from within....

 

[JD1]

Ryan's salary is only 5.5 rolling forward? I knew Phaneuf's was heading down, didn't know that about Ryan. They are both easier to deal with as a result if you try to move them

Cap hit isn't a huge issue for us. Apart from last year's regular season, the first under Boucher and a big change, Ryan has paced well above 50 points during his tenure in Ottawa. Since the start of last year's playoffs Ryan is pacing just above 50 points. Excluding last year's regular season, Ryan has paced at 56 points during his tenure in Ottawa over 280 games. I don't expect that to continue, I think 45 - 50 is more likely going forward depending on utilization. So by the time you pay what you have to pay, bonus money and reduced salary buyout money, can you replace the productivity with what is left from a 5.5M starting point? 5.5M - 1.8M is 3.7M. can you replace the 45 - 50 points for 3.7M? Yes, you can get lucky and have cost controlled assets outplay their contract, but generally that is hard to do. There are lots of examples of guys that do, no need to site a bunch, but there are far more examples of guys that don't produce at that level. That's the gamble IMO.

 

[2XPRO31]

Ryan's salary is only 5.5 rolling forward? I knew Phaneuf's was heading down, didn't know that about Ryan. They are both easier to deal with as a result if you try to move them

Cap hit isn't a huge issue for us. Apart from last year's regular season, the first under Boucher and a big change, Ryan has paced well above 50 points during his tenure in Ottawa. Since the start of last year's playoffs Ryan is pacing just above 50 points. Excluding last year's regular season, Ryan has paced at 56 points during his tenure in Ottawa over 280 games. I don't expect that to continue, I think 45 - 50 is more likely going forward depending on utilization. So by the time you pay what you have to pay, bonus money and reduced salary buyout money, can you replace the productivity with what is left from a 5.5M starting point? 5.5M - 1.8M is 3.7M. can you replace the 45 - 50 points for 3.7M? Yes, you can get lucky and have cost controlled assets outplay their contract, but generally that is hard to do. There are lots of examples of guys that do, no need to site a bunch, but there are far more examples of guys that don't produce at that level. That's the gamble IMO.

Cap hit is a big issue for us. We need to sign Stone, Karlsson, Duchene, Ceci etc.

 

[WadeRedden]

Ryan's salary is only 5.5 rolling forward? I knew Phaneuf's was heading down, didn't know that about Ryan. They are both easier to deal with as a result if you try to move them...

Ryan's base salary is $5.5 million going forward. He's still due $8 million in signing bonus money--none of which we can buyout. The situation is still dire.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

I'm not sure how you can lose either player to be honest. If u dump Phaneuf and retain 2 million or whatever, you're still going to need another top 4 defenseman to replace him. Say u get a good one at 4.5 or 5, you're not really saving much money anyway. And that's if you can make the deal in the first place, and get a good top 4 defenseman for a bargain price.

Same kinda goes with Ryan.

 

[WadeRedden]

But to answer your question:

If buyouts are actually on the table you buyout Phaneuf this offseason and Bobby in 2019.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Have to add 2 million a year to Ryan.. signing bonus money for the term of his contract.
IMO its better to retain some on each 1-1.5 on Dion and 2-2.5 on Ryan and try to trade them to get something back.

 

[Lehner]

Did you calculate the buy outs? Where are your numbers from?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Did you calculate the buy outs? Where are your numbers from?

cap friendly

 

[danielpalfredsson]

There's almost no benefit to buying out either of them because they have signing bonuses. Capfriendly only shows you the buyout cost from their salary directly in the chart.

Buying out Phaneuf=saving roughly 4.62M out of 18.5M
Replacement player costs at least 650k x 3 years for a total of 1.95
Total Savings=2.67M over the lifetime of the contract via buying out Phaneuf


Buying out Ryan=saving roughly 7.27 of 30M
Replacement player costs at least 650k x 4 years for a total of 2.6M
Total Savings=4.67M over the lifetime of the contract via buying out Ryan

My numbers are probably very slightly off, but the point is the same. With both Phaneuf and Ryan we save an insignificant amount of money throughout the lifetime of each contract if we buy them out. We spread the money through a longer period of time, but the actual savings are miniscule.

Outside of career ending injuries and insurance, the only ways out of the Phaneuf/Ryan contracts would be retaining or taking back a lesser bad contract. With Ryan's injury history, I don't think there'd be any interest in him right now.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Did you calculate the buy outs? Where are your numbers from?

Capfriendly's charts are a bit confusing because for some reason they don't account for the signing bonuses in the actual salary part of the chart, but they make note of them in the cap hit, and in their writing above where they list what additional bonuses each player has remaining.

• Bobby Ryan is 31 years old at the date of the buyout
• Salary remaining: $22,000,000 (with an additional $8,000,000 in signing bonuses remaining)
• The buyout ratio is 2/3, which results in a total buyout cost of $14,666,667
• There are 4 years remaining on this contract
• The buyout will be spread out over 8 years
• The annual buyout cost is $1,833,333

The 14.66M buyout cost doesn't account for the additional 8M of bonuses. So you're looking at 22.66M total in order to buyout a contract with 30M remaining. Then you have to account for the cost of another body to fill out the 23 man roster that Ryan would have been a part of, and it's a very minimal amount saved.

 

[WadeRedden]

Did you calculate the buy outs? Where are your numbers from?

The numbers are from capfriendly, and as danielpalfredsson has noted the numbers don't actually take into account signing bonus money, which the team can't buyout. For example, the chart shows that Dion Phaneuf's actual cost in year 3 of the buyout would be $1.5 million. But, Phaneuf is due a signing bonus of $2.5 million that year, so his actual cost would be a shad over $4 million.

The issues are here for the long haul boys.

 

[harrisb]

Retain their buyout amounts and trade them. Both at 5.5m likely makes them have some value and we only take the cap hit for their term. Finally, this is more Euge friendly as he only has to pay players not playing for the team during their term rather than much longer.

At least we might get a decent asset or two back for our troubles

 

[DJB]

Melnyk won't buy it out so your only left with two options.

A . Package one of them with another player and or picks prospects to just grt rid of them

B Ride the wave


Me personally id package them up to move on. Need to cut the fat and if it means giving up a B type prospect then id do it.

That money that Ryan is making is better served in our scouting services. We need young elc talent and the only way to do that is to improve your draft choices. To do that the scouting team needs to be beefed up

 

[Langdon Alger]

What’s a buyout?

 

[Adele Dazeem]

No point in buying out.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Melnyk won't buy it out so your only left with two options.

A . Package one of them with another player and or picks prospects to just grt rid of them

B Ride the wave


Me personally id package them up to move on. Need to cut the fat and if it means giving up a B type prospect then id do it.

That money that Ryan is making is better served in our scouting services. We need young elc talent and the only way to do that is to improve your draft choices. To do that the scouting team needs to be beefed up

B prospects are not enough to move the needle on these contracts. You missed option C - retain something and trade them. retain and trade vs buy out ... at lease in a trade we get something back and the length of time we need to carry the $ is less

 

[DJB]

True yes, i just dont feel like option C is plausible with our situation. Doesn't seem like Melnyk would agree to retaining any money.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

True yes, i just dont feel like option C is plausible with our situation. Doesn't seem like Melnyk would agree to retaining any money.

I hope Dorion can convince him

 

[swiftwin]

Doesn't insurance cover Ryan's salary while he's hurt, or is that just an LTIR thing?

 

[tony d]

I'd buyout 1 but keep the other.

 

[Pavlikovsky]

Ryan buyout is heavy on the finances and old man Eugene would not let that fly he won't even retain salary on trades keep him and hope he can be a serviceable player maybe he can hit 40 points a year and we make the playoffs where he shines and potentially makes some of his salary worth it.

Phaneuf could probably be traded there was some interest in him, we might have to move a pick with him but nothing major. *Phaneuf + 3rd for 2nd

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Doesn't insurance cover Ryan's salary while he's hurt, or is that just an LTIR thing?

This article suggests they have to be out 30 games from a single injury to qualify for insurance.

The true cost of injuries to NHL players: $218-million each season

Injuries cost NHL $218M a year in lost salaries, a wallop to bottom line: study | The Hockey News

There are other factors where insurance would not be available in some cases
The #37 Million Gamble - Nathan Horton and the worst case scenario

 

[Stylizer1]

I'd be willing to give up a Colin White if it meant getting ride of Ryan's contract. It would suck but being able to sign Karlsson and Stone would be worth it.