Speculation: What to do with Kyle Turris

[korrowan]

Detroit does not need Turris. They already have him in Frans Nielson.

 

[maplepred]

On today's random thought with Maplepred:

Why not just make a move like Philly did for Hayes?

Trade a fifth for the rights to Duchene, then sign the guy and work out a deal for Turris? Columbus knows he is not resigning so a fifth is better than nothing.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

On today's random thought with Maplepred:

Why not just make a move like Philly did for Hayes?

Trade a fifth for the rights to Duchene, then sign the guy and work out a deal for Turris? Columbus knows he is not resigning so a fifth is better than nothing.

Per the other thread where we discussed this, I think the catch to this is... does Columbus REALLY know he is not re-signing? I am guessing they want to keep lobbing hail mary passes at Duchene until the last minute, and that a 5th round pick is not going to be enough incentive to give up on that hope, however faint it might be.

Do we want to give up a 2nd or a 1st to try to get that early window on Duchene? I don't think so. It's June 23 when teams can actually start talking to impending UFAs, right? Or something like that... whenever that new window opens up, I'm guessing we don't get our chance until then. Which will be after the draft, and not ideal timing for trying to move Turris either, alas.

It's a good idea, but given everything going on in Columbus I just can't imagine it working on their end. They're not like Winnipeg who truly KNOWS they're going to be stuck on the cap and completely unable to bid on Hayes. Columbus will still hope to salvage anything they can out of their impending UFA exodus. With all their big 3 UFAs, I bet. They won't trade Panarin or Bobrovsky's rights to Florida in advance either, probably. Not for peanuts like a 5th rounder anyway. It's a bad spot for them.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Per the other thread where we discussed this, I think the catch to this is... does Columbus REALLY know he is not re-signing? I am guessing they want to keep lobbing hail mary passes at Duchene until the last minute, and that a 5th round pick is not going to be enough incentive to give up on that hope, however faint it might be.

.

The CBJ fan I know, I'm looking at you Viqsi, think Dutch is re-signing...But that's an odd thinking if your draft stock has been decimated and you could get picks for guys who are leaving anyway. The Bond Villain is being stubborn.

As for Turris....we have said it all. If Duchene signs, jettison Turris somewhere. If Duchene goes to the land of Poutien then keep Turris.

 

[Legionnaire11]

If we sign Duchene and Turris is made available, is Montreal an option for him considering they're rumored in on Duchene? And what might they have to offer us in exchange?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If we sign Duchene and Turris is made available, is Montreal an option for him considering they're rumored in on Duchene? And what might they have to offer us in exchange?

From reading the main board, it came up once and died quickly... I thought they were always looking for centers too. But they seem happy with Domi there and Kotkanemi coming up, and feel like they are set at center now.

Where "they" of course is just a few fans who speak for the Habs just as much as "we" speak for Poile, of course.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Who knows what Turris will look like by the time expansion rolls around. He might be Lucic-bad on the cap dump front by then. And we probably have Fabbro from BC exposed too or something horrible. (Protecting Josi, Ekholm, and the Bearded Dwarf).

The bottom line is Poile would be foolish to not see that trading Turris is his best cap-saving move - in the event we need cap space at all - which only happens if we sign a big name UFA - and the only big name UFAs are Duchene and Karlsson - and he's not signing Karlsson. Soooooo. I don't think Poile is particularly foolish. He'll be pulled both directions because he does show loyalty in the face of logic (to our detriment)... he must know the people he employs as human beings or something... but it won't be at all difficult for him to see that trading Turris is our best move if we sign Duchene. Everybody can see that.

The catch will be if nobody wants Turris at all. If his value really is negative, then we're in a bad spot. But we're not really in all that bad a spot no matter what, after all, because signing Duchene is a win. And at least this time we have a fallback option. Before we signed Bonino and traded for Turris, THAT's when our center ice situation was truly desperate. Nowadays it's all just luxury fun times imagining that we could further upgrade our embarrassment of riches by signing Duchene and trading Turris. That would be awesome for us, but it's not remotely a situation of desperation. It's just fun to hope for.

If no one wants turris and his value is at a negative then you go to the next option and thats trading Bonino. Move Turris down to 3c to play along with smith and a left winger and give him power play time. When he gets 40+ points being a 3c then his value will go up and teams that need a 2c will more than likely make a trade for him wishing they would of made the trade when he was cheaper.

I still think even going this route where you get Duchene that cant be your biggest move. you have to seriously think about trading pk or ellis to bring in a top 6 player

Forsberg Duchene Granlund
Arvi/( player we get) joey Arvi/( player we get)
Should be your top 6.
Than you might could go with 3 scoring lines and give Tolvanen a shot on the 3rd line

Tolvanen Turris Smith

 

[GoldOnGold]

If no one wants turris and his value is at a negative then you go to the next option and thats trading Bonino. Move Turris down to 3c to play along with smith and a left winger and give him power play time. When he gets 40+ points being a 3c then his value will go up and teams that need a 2c will more than likely make a trade for him wishing they would of made the trade when he was cheaper.

I still think even going this route where you get Duchene that cant be your biggest move. you have to seriously think about trading pk or ellis to bring in a top 6 player

Forsberg Duchene Granlund
Arvi/( player we get) joey Arvi/( player we get)
Should be your top 6.
Than you might could go with 3 scoring lines and give Tolvanen a shot on the 3rd line

Tolvanen Turris Smith

Ellis for Nylander

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If no one wants turris and his value is at a negative then you go to the next option and thats trading Bonino. Move Turris down to 3c to play along with smith and a left winger and give him power play time. When he gets 40+ points being a 3c then his value will go up and teams that need a 2c will more than likely make a trade for him wishing they would of made the trade when he was cheaper.

I still think even going this route where you get Duchene that cant be your biggest move. you have to seriously think about trading pk or ellis to bring in a top 6 player

Forsberg Duchene Granlund
Arvi/( player we get) joey Arvi/( player we get)
Should be your top 6.
Than you might could go with 3 scoring lines and give Tolvanen a shot on the 3rd line

Tolvanen Turris Smith

I guess there are a lot of ways it could go. But I don't say we MUST trade Ellis or Subban for a winger. So far as I can tell from the main board chatter, there aren't too many guys who might be available in that category. A guy like Kessel who seemed interesting now only wants Arizona, and some of the others, it's a little questionable if they are much better than Smith. Or than using Turris on the wing. JoFA-Duchene-Granlund with a fallback 6th forward slot for Smith/Turris/Grimaldi/Tolvanen try outs might be better than underselling Ellis or Subban.

Maybe the timing even works out better to trade one of them next off-season once we've seen a little more of Fabbro and maybe have a different mix of available wingers we could chase. (And when they aren't coming off bad years).

And I'm STILL not buying Tolvanen really as a candidate for the roster in general, anywhere, yet. He has something to prove after not exactly setting Milwaukee on fire. Not that a young guy with his talent can't take a big step forward. But his season was a lot more suggestive of needing another year in the minors than anything else.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Ellis for Nylander

I'd do Ellis for Nylander but if Toronto wasn't good with trading him, I'd might do a johnsson, bracco, and Liljegren. Maybe a pick if that wasn't enough

 

[GeauxPreds1]

I guess there are a lot of ways it could go. But I don't say we MUST trade Ellis or Subban for a winger. So far as I can tell from the main board chatter, there aren't too many guys who might be available in that category. A guy like Kessel who seemed interesting now only wants Arizona, and some of the others, it's a little questionable if they are much better than Smith. Or than using Turris on the wing. JoFA-Duchene-Granlund with a fallback 6th forward slot for Smith/Turris/Grimaldi/Tolvanen try outs might be better than underselling Ellis or Subban.

Maybe the timing even works out better to trade one of them next off-season once we've seen a little more of Fabbro and maybe have a different mix of available wingers we could chase. (And when they aren't coming off bad years).

And I'm STILL not buying Tolvanen really as a candidate for the roster in general, anywhere, yet. He has something to prove after not exactly setting Milwaukee on fire. Not that a young guy with his talent can't take a big step forward. But his season was a lot more suggestive of needing another year in the minors than anything else.

First off I'm going to say all this is wishful thinking and the chances on it happening is slim but

I just don't think getting Duchene should be the biggest move. Its a great move and he will help our offense drastically but I think there could be a bigger move out there if the rumors are true. If Taylor hall becomes available then you have to make a move for him. Subban, Tolvanen and a pick for extended hall would be my offer.

Hall Johansen Arvi
Forsberg Duchene Granlund
Would be an insane top 6

I know the chances on that happening is .01 but I can have fun with those thoughts for a few more weeks. Lol

 

[maplepred]

From reading the main board, it came up once and died quickly... I thought they were always looking for centers too. But they seem happy with Domi there and Kotkanemi coming up, and feel like they are set at center now.

Where "they" of course is just a few fans who speak for the Habs just as much as "we" speak for Poile, of course.

"They" being some fans of course, say they are set at centre.

But yet "Montreal management in real life" wants to sign Duchene, who is a top six centre lol, shows you were the habs fans saying this heads are.

So I tend to agree with Legionnaire here, Turris may be of interest to the habs for sure when we sign Duchene. Hell, we could not get Duchene and settled for Turris so why not the habs to?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'd do Ellis for Nylander but if Toronto wasn't good with trading him, I'd might do a johnsson, bracco, and Liljegren. Maybe a pick if that wasn't enough

Johnsson/Kapanen, and depending on how our cap shook out I'd still be willing to consider taking Zaitsev back if the cap savings motivates the deal for them. Having a stay-at-home-ish #5 RD in Zaitsev I don't think would be a bad idea while we work Fabbro in. Of course, the drawback is he has 5 years left, so we're taking him as negative value baggage in that scenario. Toronto should retain $1M. But it wouldn't shock me if he isn't secretly a little better than his latest poor stats show. It's like the very very poor man's Larsson, just with all the other stuff driving the deal instead.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

First off I'm going to say all this is wishful thinking and the chances on it happening is slim but

I just don't think getting Duchene should be the biggest move. Its a great move and he will help our offense drastically but I think there could be a bigger move out there if the rumors are true. If Taylor hall becomes available then you have to make a move for him. Subban, Tolvanen and a pick for extended hall would be my offer.

Hall Johansen Arvi
Forsberg Duchene Granlund
Would be an insane top 6

I know the chances on that happening is .01 but I can have fun with those thoughts for a few more weeks. Lol

Ok, I will allow a Hall fantasy. But for me, I'm honestly satisfied just sticking with the Duchene fantasy. That CAN be the biggest move for me. I do still believe (mostly) in the team we have. Last season's disappointing showing couldn't have been all this team has in them.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

"They" being some fans of course, say they are set at centre.

But yet "Montreal management in real life" wants to sign Duchene, who is a top six centre lol, shows you were the habs fans saying this heads are.

So I tend to agree with Legionnaire here, Turris may be of interest to the habs for sure when we sign Duchene. Hell, we could not get Duchene and settled for Turris so why not the habs to?

I think a lot more teams than fans think will be interested in turris. Arizona, buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Colorado, Montreal, Ny Rangers, Minnesota, Winnipeg and maybe even more will show interest in getting a 2c for possibly cheaper than normal

 

[Gh24]

"They" being some fans of course, say they are set at centre.

But yet "Montreal management in real life" wants to sign Duchene, who is a top six centre lol, shows you were the habs fans saying this heads are.

So I tend to agree with Legionnaire here, Turris may be of interest to the habs for sure when we sign Duchene. Hell, we could not get Duchene and settled for Turris so why not the habs to?

I think what the most sane (my subjective view) of them are trying to say is that if a 1C like Duchene is available, then go for it even thought their C depth is good already. Turris would either take away from Kotka or be an overpaid 3C. And they probably prefer Danault as more cost controlled option there anyway.

I hope I'm wrong and they are in the mix as well to possibly increase the return for Turris.

 

[A Few Good Males]

Detroit does not need Turris. They already have him in Frans Nielson.

Any appetite for a Nielson / Turris swap? 2 less years of term and $750k smaller cap hit with Nielsen. What would Detroit have to add?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Any appetite for a Nielson / Turris swap? 2 less years of term and $750k smaller cap hit with Nielsen. What would Detroit have to add?

No appetite here. Nielsen is 35 and his decline in production can more easily be attributed to age and likely declared permanent than is the case with Turris' one injury-plagued poor season at age 29.

This is basically a negative value trade for Turris where you take a clearly inferior player back to... what... save $750k on the cap and get out of his contract 2 years sooner? No, we aren't looking to save a mere $750k on Turris and have no concern about his term. When his deal ends he'll be the same age as Nielsen is today.

I don't think there is any "sane" add that makes this work, because again our only objective in trading Turris would be to clear all of his cap hit, and getting Nielsen back prevents that from happening. Trading Turris somewhere for a 7th round draft pick would be a better deal for us.

But I will still trade you Ryan Ellis for Mantha!

 

[GeauxPreds1]

No appetite here. Nielsen is 35 and his decline in production can more easily be attributed to age and likely declared permanent than is the case with Turris' one injury-plagued poor season at age 29.

This is basically a negative value trade for Turris where you take a clearly inferior player back to... what... save $750k on the cap and get out of his contract 2 years sooner? No, we aren't looking to save a mere $750k on Turris and have no concern about his term. When his deal ends he'll be the same age as Nielsen is today.

I don't think there is any "sane" add that makes this work, because again our only objective in trading Turris would be to clear all of his cap hit, and getting Nielsen back prevents that from happening. Trading Turris somewhere for a 7th round draft pick would be a better deal for us.

But I will still trade you Ryan Ellis for Mantha!

I'd second that. I'd do Ellis for Mantha too

 

[A Few Good Males]

No appetite here. Nielsen is 35 and his decline in production can more easily be attributed to age and likely declared permanent than is the case with Turris' one injury-plagued poor season at age 29.

This is basically a negative value trade for Turris where you take a clearly inferior player back to... what... save $750k on the cap and get out of his contract 2 years sooner? No, we aren't looking to save a mere $750k on Turris and have no concern about his term. When his deal ends he'll be the same age as Nielsen is today.

I don't think there is any "sane" add that makes this work, because again our only objective in trading Turris would be to clear all of his cap hit, and getting Nielsen back prevents that from happening. Trading Turris somewhere for a 7th round draft pick would be a better deal for us.

But I will still trade you Ryan Ellis for Mantha!

Fair enough. It seems - from an outside perspective - that Turris does have negative trade value. .42 PPG at $6M AAV for 5 more years is.. quite rich. You seem confident that he will bounce back this season, though, if healthy - which is fair. I do not watch the Preds regularly so can't speak to that.

Looking at the elementary stats, Nielsen's .48 PPG (on a bad team) is superior to Turris's .42 PPG (on a good team). So again, from an outsider's perspective, Turris has negative value and seems unlikely a team would trade even a 7th round pick for him, given the risk in absorbing that contract through 2024, which is why is suggested a bad contract-for-bad contract type of deal.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Fair enough. It seems - from an outside perspective - that Turris does have negative trade value. .42 PPG at $6M AAV for 5 more years is.. quite rich. You seem confident that he will bounce back this season, though, if healthy - which is fair. I do not watch the Preds regularly so can't speak to that.

Looking at the elementary stats, Nielsen's .48 PPG (on a bad team) is superior to Turris's .42 PPG (on a good team). So again, from an outsider's perspective, Turris has negative value and seems unlikely a team would trade even a 7th round pick for him, given the risk in absorbing that contract through 2024, which is why is suggested a bad contract-for-bad contract type of deal.

Too much recency bias in that view of Turris. I don't even like Turris as a player - but I don't think one season on a 29-year old player with his clearly documented injury is enough to turn him into a negative value player. Turris will get better than 0.60 PPG any season he's healthy and has a legitimate 2nd line role. Doesn't mean I like him as a player. But he's fair value for his contract in the modern NHL world.

 

[A Few Good Males]

Too much recency bias in that view of Turris. I don't even like Turris as a player - but I don't think one season on a 29-year old player with his clearly documented injury is enough to turn him into a negative value player. Turris will get better than 0.60 PPG any season he's healthy and has a legitimate 2nd line role. Doesn't mean I like him as a player. But he's fair value for his contract in the modern NHL world.

I think the vast majority of decisions in the NHL are made based on recency bias. Jeff Skinner didn't just get $9M per year because he scored 24 goals two seasons ago.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I think the vast majority of decisions in the NHL are made based on recency bias. Jeff Skinner didn't just get $9M per year because he scored 24 goals two seasons ago.

Which will make it all the more fun when he regresses to that.

 

[braindead]

If no one wants turris and his value is at a negative then you go to the next option and thats trading Bonino. Move Turris down to 3c to play along with smith and a left winger and give him power play time. When he gets 40+ points being a 3c then his value will go up and teams that need a 2c will more than likely make a trade for him wishing they would of made the trade when he was cheaper.

——————————
This is exactly where I think Poile would go. Bonino has more trade value but Turris has more upside and we need a different approach to our 3rd line. Regardless of whether we land Duchene or not, I think Bonino is gone.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Fair enough. It seems - from an outside perspective - that Turris does have negative trade value. .42 PPG at $6M AAV for 5 more years is.. quite rich. You seem confident that he will bounce back this season, though, if healthy - which is fair. I do not watch the Preds regularly so can't speak to that.

He had 16 points in 23 games to start the season, broke his foot, came back for 7 games and broke his foot again and while he struggled for the vast majority of the season after that he was noticeably better towards the end of the season and in the playoffs.