Prospect Info: What should be the criteria for HFPens prospect rankings

[Malkinstheman]

Theres been some disagreement over which players should be eligible so lets decide it with a vote. The most common criteria I've seen are :

1. Follow Calder Eligibility ( a player cannot have played more than 25 games in any single preceding season nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons)

2. Any young or un-established player counts (Doc, Zoho, Smith, Poehling would be eligible with this)

3. A specific age cut-off

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[ColePens]

Boy that's tough. I think #2

 

[Coastal Kev]

ass size

best players = wide ass

 

[KareemTrustfund]

I could see a legitimate argument for DOC to be kept in the polls, but I’m not so sure about Smith or Phoeling. Smith has 114 GP. He’s been in the NHL the last two seasons. He’s an NHLer.
Poehling has over a seasons worth at 85.

I’ll just vote Calder but I don’t really care either way

 

[Pens x]

Prospects don’t exist according to Sully and Hextall.

 

[BusinessGoose]

ass size

best players = wide ass

Wario is the best player to choose on Mario Party for a reason

#TeamPurpleAss

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I could see a legitimate argument for DOC to be kept in the polls, but I’m not so sure about Smith or Phoeling. Smith has 114 GP. He’s been in the NHL the last two seasons. He’s an NHLer.
Poehling has over a seasons worth at 85.

Pretty much my thinking. But then throw Zohorna out as well because he's too old.

So, kind of #2. But better define "young and un-established".

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Calder + a DOC exception is my vote.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I exported some data from NHL.com with regards to rookie time on ice over the last 5 seasons. And then I did some math/stats stuff. Here's what I came up with:

To explain, let's use Ryan Poehling as an example. According to his Hockey Reference page this past season was his age 23 season. His total TOI is at 986. Go to the chart, find age 23, go up to the line that corresponds to forwards and find the TOI of 1346. Since he does not exceed this he is still a prospect.

If you do the same with Ty Smith, who just had his age 21 season, he is not a prospect as he has over 2100 NHL minutes.

Alex Nylander is still a prospect according to this but is just on the cusp of being disqualified. Kinda makes sense to me.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I think we should limit the voting to Season Ticket Holders

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the idea I like the most is someone with less than 1 full season of games played. It's basically the "Calder Eligibility" option but with an 82 game cutoff instead of a 25 game cutoff. That would have Zohorna and O'Connor as prospects but Smith, Poehling and Nylander not as prospects.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Okay so it seems that the conesus is Calder eligible + Doc and Zoho

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I exported some data from NHL.com with regards to rookie time on ice over the last 5 seasons. And then I did some math/stats stuff. Here's what I came up with:

To explain, let's use Ryan Poehling as an example. According to his Hockey Reference page this past season was his age 23 season. His total TOI is at 986. Go to the chart, find age 23, go up to the line that corresponds to forwards and find the TOI of 1346. Since he does not exceed this he is still a prospect.

If you do the same with Ty Smith, who just had his age 21 season, he is not a prospect as he has over 2100 NHL minutes.

Alex Nylander is still a prospect according to this but is just on the cusp of being disqualified. Kinda makes sense to me.

Will not read. Not enough color.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's a case by case thing for me, I guess. The only reason Ty Smith has like two season's worth of games is because he was thrown into the fire by a dogshit bottomfeeder. /shrug Kind of the same thing with Poehling, to a degree.

I think, for me, prospect just means any younger guy, and the cutoff is probably 24-25ish. By then, you kinda know what the dude is and will ever be, imo.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I could see a legitimate argument for DOC to be kept in the polls, but I’m not so sure about Smith or Phoeling. Smith has 114 GP. He’s been in the NHL the last two seasons. He’s an NHLer.
Poehling has over a seasons worth at 85.

I’ll just vote Calder but I don’t really care either way

It's a case by case thing for me, I guess. The only reason Ty Smith has like two season's worth of games is because he was thrown into the fire by a dogshit bottomfeeder. /shrug Kind of the same thing with Poehling, to a degree.

I think, for me, prospect just means any younger guy, and the cutoff is probably 24-25ish. By then, you kinda know what the dude is and will ever be, imo.

I can definitely see your point with Smith and Poehling. If they had been with the Pens I think I would agree but since they both have eligibility to be sent down without waivers it is a close call. Smith might come into camp and beat out POJ for the 3LD spot next to Rutta. I think Rutta is the perfect veteran defensive defenseman to pair with whoever wins that battle. If Smith does win the job out of camp he definitely would be considered not a prospect but if POJ wins that job to them what do you call a 22 year old defenseman in the AHL?

 

[StaalForOne]

ass size

best players = wide ass

You should take to my neighbor the accountant. Probably a great golfer. Huge ass.

 

[SEALBound]

I don't consider Poehling, Smith, or Nylander as "prospects". They are "unestablished players", not prospects. At best - young, roster players.

Zohorna and DOC ride that line. If they are included, fine. I don't exactly consider Zohorna a "prospect" though due to age. DOC, again, right on the line.

Big Z, no. DOC, yes.

 

[StaalForOne]

I don't consider Poehling, Smith, or Nylander as "prospects". They are "unestablished players", not prospects. At best - young, roster players.

Agree

Zohorna and DOC ride that line. If they are included, fine. I don't exactly consider Zohorna a "prospect" though due to age. DOC, again, right on the line.

Big Z, no. DOC, yes.

I'd prefer both stayed out of the prospect rankings. I think they've played enough games where all they would do is skew votes when voters start weighing NHL readiness vs actual potential.

 

[SEALBound]

Agree


I'd prefer both stayed out of the prospect rankings. I think they've played enough games where all they would do is skew votes when voters start weighing NHL readiness vs actual potential.

Indeed. I'm not heart broken if he's not included. 24yo and 32 games played...not much. Again, I could go either way.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

This reminds me of the whole valuation of prospects thing too. Some people value guys with a higher ceiling, even with more bust potential. Some people value prospects who are NHL ready, if they only top out as nondescript 4th liners.

It's all weird, vague opinion stuff with no real clear defined guidelines.

 

[SEALBound]

This reminds me of the whole valuation of prospects thing too. Some people value guys with a higher ceiling, even with more bust potential. Some people value prospects who are NHL ready, if they only top out as nondescript 4th liners.

It's all weird, vague opinion stuff with no real clear defined guidelines.

Good example: Puustinen vs Zohorna.

Puustinen has a higher ceiling IMHO but I feel Zohorna is more likely to carve out a NHL career. Who's the better prospect? No idea. TBD based on the vote.

 

[Andy99]

I’ve said this before but I’m probably the only one here who believes there should be an age cut off..I don’t believe DOC or Zohorna qualify as prospects anymore…and when Chicago signed Panarin from the KHL, he was not a prospect then, even at age 23 and even though he won the Calder, because he had already played in a professional league for awhile…my opinion of course…I think 23 should be the cut off for prospect forwards and only for those who played in the minor leagues, juniors etc…if you’re Sidney Crosby and it’s your first year playing In the NHL and you play the whole season there (not splitting with the AHL), you are not a “prospect” regardless of whether you’re eligible for the Calder or not…you’re a rookie…rookie and prospect are not equivalent…prospect to me means a still-developing young player who is not playing in the top professional leagues in the sport…

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I don't venture much into the main boards, but I think this could possibly be a good topic there.

 

[RxPens]

I do enjoy our annual summer prospect polls, but I often wonder if a parallel NHL readiness poll would be a good idea. Say a top 10 in terms of their ability and likelihood to step into the pens roster this coming season. It would also let our regular poll rely more heavily on skills and potential. I often times find myself trying to balance both readiness and potential in the middle to late portion of the poll. Just a thought.

 

[Peat]

Surely the weighing of potential vs the likelihood of hitting is just part of prospect evaluation though, right? I guess it'd be simpler to divorce the two.

Anyway, I voted Calder. Can run the same idea but at a higher threshold, just it feels weird to me that we're discussing a guy as a prospect when the NHL doesn't think they're a rookie. I wouldn't be against changing it to a "player up to age of X" but at that point it starts becoming a different exercise to me.

To me prospect means you're not judging them off their NHL body of work. The moment they've done enough work that we're judging them on their NHL work they're not a prospect either. They're not a proven thing either, but they're something in the middle.

I accept Calder can trend a little low and cuts off some guys where the judgment is a little on their AHL body of work still, like DOC, but it's going to be a little wrong either way whatever happens.