Speculation: What do you expect next year?

[Jaded-Fan]

What do you expect next year in terms of:

Number of wins?
Team goals per game?
Team goals against per game?
Goals and points for Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Kessel?
Injuries?

Last year was an odd duck as far as looking at stats. A tale of two seasons, or more like a bit over sixty percent of a season vs. the beginning of the year.

So it begs the question of what the expectations are for next year.

To refresh what the Pens did those last 50 games and in the playoffs:

Pittsburgh won 18 of its final 23 games in the regular season, almost eighty percent of those games.

In the playoffs the Pens won 16 and lost 8 games.

After Sullivan took over on December 12th, and after losing the first four games, the Pens scored 174 goals in 50 games, 3.5 goals a game. That number destroyed what anyone else did offensively last year. Only two teams, Dallas and Washington, went over 3 goals a game, tied at 3.02 goals a game. The Pens scored a half a goal more than either of them over those last 50 games, and ended up just a shade behind them overall for the year despite the horrific beginning of the season. In the playoffs the Pens had the second best offense in the playoffs, over 3 goals a game, and the third best defense.

The Pens’ puck possession numbers, the best playoff success predictor, were off the charts. That final period where the Sharks were trying to come back and had only a handful of shots for the entire period was a microcosm of what the Pens were doing all playoffs and all season for the last 50 games.

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[BlindWillyMcHurt]

52 wins
252 team goals
221 goals against

Crosby - 79GP, 37 goals, 87 points
Malkin - 45GP, 12 goals, 37 points
Letang - 68GP, 19 goals, 62 points
Kessel - 73GP, 32 goals, 65 points

Injuries - a bunch

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

I can say that I expect Tanger to have a great year. Over a point per game player, to later win the Norris.

 

[Pancakes]

I don't know what to expect. I don't know if the team is capable of playing for 82 games with the same intensity that it did when Sully took over, especially coming off a Cup win.

At the same time, our roster is better than it has been in years, and everyone looks to be fairly healthy. We have two good goalies. I'd expect us to be comfortably in the top 2 in the division but I'm not handing us the President's Trophy or anything like that just yet.

An interesting story line to me is going to be the lines. What do we do there? Are we really going to go with HBK as our third line for the whole year? Can Sheary stick in the top six? Can Kunitz (well yeah ). What of Rust, who looks like he could be a break out contributor?

And what about Sid? Is it so unreasonable to think he could get back to scoring 100 points? He had his worst start ever last season, and we all know how he finished. If he doesn't stumble out of the gate, maybe he hits 100 again, especially with a healthy Geno.

 

[CanadianPensFan1]

Cup or bust

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I don't know what to expect. I don't know if the team is capable of playing for 82 games with the same intensity that it did when Sully took over, especially coming off a Cup win.

At the same time, our roster is better than it has been in years, and everyone looks to be fairly healthy. We have two good goalies. I'd expect us to be comfortably in the top 2 in the division but I'm not handing us the President's Trophy or anything like that just yet.

An interesting story line to me is going to be the lines. What do we do there? Are we really going to go with HBK as our third line for the whole year? Can Sheary stick in the top six? Can Kunitz (well yeah ). What of Rust, who looks like he could be a break out contributor?

And what about Sid? Is it so unreasonable to think he could get back to scoring 100 points? He had his worst start ever last season, and we all know how he finished. If he doesn't stumble out of the gate, maybe he hits 100 again, especially with a healthy Geno.

Why wouldn't we?

I am all for playing around with the lineup to try new things, to give the kids a chance to grow, etc for the regular season.

That said, as the go to why wouldn't you keep the lines as they are? The beauty is that it allows you to rest your stars to distribute time evenly between three, or even almost evenly with four lines. What we do best is also best for keeping our superstar players who are rounding into their 30's at their best for the playoffs.

 

[Shady Machine]

52 wins
252 team goals
221 goals against

Crosby - 79GP, 37 goals, 87 points
Malkin - 45GP, 12 goals, 37 points
Letang - 68GP, 19 goals, 62 points
Kessel - 73GP, 32 goals, 65 points

Injuries - a bunch

I love that continued Malkin negativity. It's kind of become your "thing".

For the record, your expectations are that Malkin plays less games (outside of lockout shortened season) than he's played in a season since Meyers sat on his knee in 2011.

I also find it interesting that you expect Kessel to miss 9 games when he hasn't missed a game since the 09-10 season.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

?

I think 12 goals in 45 games on a **** elbow for a guy who already is a skating injury disaster and with a bunch of nothing as linemates is pretty optimistic. It really isn't that unrealistic. Malkin's incoming garbage season is one of the easier predictions to make this offseason, IMO.

 

[plaidchuck]

Yeah 45 GP is a bit much. I put him around 65 GP.

 

[Shady Machine]

?

I think 12 goals in 45 games on a **** elbow for a guy who already is a skating injury disaster and with a bunch of nothing as linemates is pretty optimistic. It really isn't that unrealistic. Malkin's incoming garbage season is one of the easier predictions to make this offseason, IMO.

I think expecting Malkin to play less than he's played in a season in 5 years is interesting. I'm not saying you are wrong, it's just funny that your default is pessimism with him.

 

[Pancakes]

Why wouldn't we?

I am all for playing around with the lineup to try new things, to give the kids a chance to grow, etc for the regular season.

That said, as the go to why wouldn't you keep the lines as they are? The beauty is that it allows you to rest your stars to distribute time evenly between three, or even almost evenly with four lines. What we do best is also best for keeping our superstar players who are rounding into their 30's at their best for the playoffs.

Oh I think we should, at least to start the season, but I'm curious how that develops over 82 games. Let's face it, it's likely that Sid and Geno's wingers are going to struggle a bit over 82. I imagine it will be awfully tempting to break up that line if/when our wingers go through dry spells.

It's an easy sell to keep the lines the way they are since we won a Cup that way, but if any of those lines struggles out of the gate, I expect the HBK will be broken up in short order.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Oh I think we should, at least to start the season, but I'm curious how that develops over 82 games. Let's face it, it's likely that Sid and Geno's wingers are going to struggle a bit over 82. I imagine it will be awfully tempting to break up that line if/when our wingers go through dry spells.

It's an easy sell to keep the lines the way they are since we won a Cup that way, but if any of those lines struggles out of the gate, I expect the HBK will be broken up in short order.

I agree completely. I in fact have questions regarding whether some of the kids, especially the smaller ones who depend on speed and grit to make their bones in the NHL, can withstand an entire NHL season with regular minutes.

Luckily we have some cheap almost interchangable parts, and would be foolish not to make use of them to keep the Vets AND the kids from being done come playoff time.

And like I said, getting a lot of kids experience to grow would be very smart. Pouliot is a prime example. He needs time to go through the growing pains. Give him, and others, that time. Would love to see Sprong given the opportunity if he is anywhere near close as well.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Da Cup with MAF and Kunitz goin' bye bye.

 

[NastyNick]

Its going to be a tough year for sure.

I'd love to be optimistic, but cup hangover is a real thing. And the Penguins play in a division filled with bitter, jealous, a-holes. Whose the last metro team to win the cup besides Pittsburgh? Carolina? The Penguins soft style combined with that resentment is going to result in some cheap play. No doubt about it. They are going to be circled on a lot of calendars.

 

[mpp9]

I suspect each star player will get on a hot stretch for a month or two to carry the offense. The kids get to experience an 82 game season. And hopefully everybody's healthy at the end of the season.

I suspect Malkin will be around ppg. Hopefully with near a full season. Kessel will likely start the season better and probably get closer to 70 points.

From what Sid's said this offseason and the weight lifted off his shoulders by winning that second Cup afte a horrid start to the season for him, I think we see maybe his last best chance at another scoring title with McDavid still not quite in his prime yet. He was talking about using the offseason to work on his speed an shot. If he goes back into attack the net and shoot everything mode, he'll probably be up near 100 points an past 40 goals.

 

[Koempel]

I expect at the very least a conference semi-finals appearance. Seeing the chances of the Caps, Bolts and Pens as relatively equal, it depends again on a hard fought and close series. Regarding the regular season, I do not really care as long as we enter the play-offs without too many crippling injuries. There will be good and bad weeks as usual with the accompanying entertaining mood swings on this great board.

 

[Riptide]

Why wouldn't we?

I am all for playing around with the lineup to try new things, to give the kids a chance to grow, etc for the regular season.

That said, as the go to why wouldn't you keep the lines as they are? The beauty is that it allows you to rest your stars to distribute time evenly between three, or even almost evenly with four lines. What we do best is also best for keeping our superstar players who are rounding into their 30's at their best for the playoffs.

There's a very real concern over how happy the players would be with regards to their stats, TOI and how they're used. Do you really think if we're healthy that Malkin, Crosby and Kessel would all be happy splitting offensive opportunities over the course of a 6 month season? I can easily see how some frustrations and whatnot would happen. In the playoffs as what you're doing is destroying teams and giving you a very real chance at another cup, it's easy to suck up 2 months of putting the team first. But to ask different players to do that for an entire season? I just do not see it happening. And it's not because any of those 3 are *******s or anything like that, but all of these guys have ego's to an extent and all want to do well and they all want to be put in situations where they can produce (which is why they're getting paid what they are).

Personally, I do not see HBK being a regular thing all season long. Against some teams for some matchup's sure. Later in the season as we ramp up for the playoffs, absolutely. But as a regular thing for 60+ games? No.

As for the season and what I expect... I won't put down wins/goal totals and whatnot, but suffice to say, my expectations are a lot higher than last year! I'm expecting us to be one of the top teams in the east and one that advances to the ECFs at the minimum. Anything else would be a bitter disappointment.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Related to the questions above, what team do you see as closest to the Pens with multiple lines with speed, skill and scoring. Who is the closest Pens' clone in the NHL?

 

[Riptide]

I agree completely. I in fact have questions regarding whether some of the kids, especially the smaller ones who depend on speed and grit to make their bones in the NHL, can withstand an entire NHL season with regular minutes.

Luckily we have some cheap almost interchangable parts, and would be foolish not to make use of them to keep the Vets AND the kids from being done come playoff time.

And like I said, getting a lot of kids experience to grow would be very smart. Pouliot is a prime example. He needs time to go through the growing pains. Give him, and others, that time. Would love to see Sprong given the opportunity if he is anywhere near close as well.

He's going to miss half the season, training camp and a lot of his offseason training. I don't think there's a chance in hell that he see's a game before being sent back to juniors. The only exception might be if he comes back right when we're hit with a bunch of F/W injuries, so we give him several games to buy us time for someone to get healthy. Otherwise I expect him to come off IR and go straight to the CHL.

 

[Riptide]

Related to the questions above, what team do you see as closest to the Pens with multiple lines with speed, skill and scoring. Who is the closest Pens' clone in the NHL?

Speed? Tampa, no doubt. I can't think of a single team with anywhere near the speed to PIT other than Tampa.
Depth, skill and offense? Washington and San Jose. However neither have the speed PIT does. SJ acquiring Boedker this summer moves them closer (and likely the closest overall to PIT), but they'll need a couple of their young guys on the blueline to really step up if they want go head to head with PIT.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

There's a very real concern over how happy the players would be with regards to their stats, TOI and how they're used. Do you really think if we're healthy that Malkin, Crosby and Kessel would all be happy splitting offensive opportunities over the course of a 6 month season? I can easily see how some frustrations and whatnot would happen. In the playoffs as what you're doing is destroying teams and giving you a very real chance at another cup, it's easy to suck up 2 months of putting the team first. But to ask different players to do that for an entire season? I just do not see it happening. And it's not because any of those 3 are *******s or anything like that, but all of these guys have ego's to an extent and all want to do well and they all want to be put in situations where they can produce (which is why they're getting paid what they are).

Personally, I do not see HBK being a regular thing all season long. Against some teams for some matchup's sure. Later in the season as we ramp up for the playoffs, absolutely. But as a regular thing for 60+ games? No.

As for the season and what I expect... I won't put down wins/goal totals and whatnot, but suffice to say, my expectations are a lot higher than last year! I'm expecting us to be one of the top teams in the east and one that advances to the ECFs at the minimum. Anything else would be a bitter disappointment.

I think that we basically agreeing. I said that HBK would be the go to option, but I am all for changing things up during the regular season for various reasons that I outlined above.

I do not think that egos will be an issue as much as some of the players being not at their peak going into the playoffs, or even straight up unable to play a full season. Some of the kids will absolutely be spent if we play them every game that we can. We have seen it happen many times in the past.

So I am not arguing for keeping those lines sacrosanct for the regular season as if Moses came down from the mountain with them written on the tablets. The Pens could not if they wanted to. The Kids and Vets would be spent for the playoffs. And kids like Pouliot, and perhaps Sprong, need to go through the growing pains or never will make it here. But I want to see them have those penciled in for the playoffs as the primary plan unless something changes that plan.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Speed? Tampa, no doubt. I can't think of a single team with anywhere near the speed to PIT other than Tampa.
Depth, skill and offense? Washington and San Jose. However neither have the speed PIT does. SJ acquiring Boedker this summer moves them closer (and likely the closest overall to PIT), but they'll need a couple of their young guys on the blueline to really step up if they want go head to head with PIT.

TB came to mind to me as well as the closest team to being able to match up with the Pens. Washington and SJ showed that it is not just depth but the kind of depth that matters. They did not have the kind of depth to give us much in the way of problems, so it was virtually useless because of the match up headache our style was to their type of 'heavy' game.

And for all their scoring and defensive stats, Washington's puck possession numbers were extremely mediocre. 14th overall. It was no surprise that the Pens gave them fits.

 

[DegenX]

I think it's a bit early for this. Well, at least for me. I'd like to wait until at least the preseason before speculating anything. Right now, there are too many variables ... How will Flower and MM be used? How will the roster shake out? Still too many questions remaining to have any kind of realistic expectations about the up-coming season, IMO.

Although, I do believe I could accurately predict what will happen on this board over the course of the season

 

[Riptide]

TB came to mind to me as well as the closest team to being able to match up with the Pens. Washington and SJ showed that it is not just depth but the kind of depth that matters. They did not have the kind of depth to give us much in the way of problems, so it was virtually useless because of the match up headache our style was to their type of 'heavy' game.

And for all their scoring and defensive stats, Washington's puck possession numbers were extremely mediocre. 14th overall. It was no surprise that the Pens gave them fits.

We got lucky against WSH. Kuznetsov not showing up make our lives a LOT easier, and essentially tied one hand behind their backs. Their D still sucks once you get past the top 3/4, but that didn't stop them from giving us a hard time, while one of their top players played like ****. And SJ made moves to address that. Their top 12 doesn't have the same speed PIT has, but they do have the right kind of depth to roll 4 lines. And getting Schlemko instead of Polak is a big step in the right direction for their 3rd pairing.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

We got lucky against WSH. Kuznetsov not showing up make our lives a LOT easier, and essentially tied one hand behind their backs. Their D still sucks once you get past the top 3/4, but that didn't stop them from giving us a hard time, while one of their top players played like ****. And SJ made moves to address that. Their top 12 doesn't have the same speed PIT has, but they do have the right kind of depth to roll 4 lines. And getting Schlemko instead of Polak is a big step in the right direction for their 3rd pairing.

The Pens made most of the top players not show up this past playoffs. I am not sure it was Kuznetsov or the Pens being able to impose their will. Likely a bit of both as he had grown cold before the series. But that was one of the Pens' calling cards this past off season. They for the most part shut down the top players for opposing teams who could barely get a shot let alone a goal.