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Gee Wally

Gee Wally

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This is, IMO, an outstanding read.
Even if you agree or disagree it contains a lot of good information.


dom.hockey

When is a Mailbag Not a Mailbag?

Well, when someone emails you a question and you feel it’s deserving of its own (lengthy) reply. Kiki D sent me this question for my next mailbag: Hi Dom, I’m sure that these are your l…
dom.hockey dom.hockey
 
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Over the volcano

Over the volcano

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Mar 10, 2006
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Gee Wally said:
This is, IMO, an outstanding read.
Even if you agree or disagree it contains a lot of good information.


dom.hockey

When is a Mailbag Not a Mailbag?

Well, when someone emails you a question and you feel it’s deserving of its own (lengthy) reply. Kiki D sent me this question for my next mailbag: Hi Dom, I’m sure that these are your l…
dom.hockey dom.hockey
Click to expand...
Great stuff - still believe if they picked Carlo at Senyshyn's spot and Senyshyn at Carlo's then there wouldn't be the great and ongoing hurricane in here around 2015, and the real world effect would be zero.
 
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Gonzothe7thDman

Gonzothe7thDman

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That's an interesting comment by Dom about Barzal not being able to lead a team to a Stanley Cup if he has to be "the guy".

Isles lost in a 1 goal game 7 against the reigning cup champs. Essentially it came down to a coin flip with Barzal being "the guy" for the Isles. Led his team in points not only in that series but in the playoffs as a whole. All of his points came at even strength as well.

Had as many even strength points in 7 games as Bergeron has in his past 11 playoff games vs TB. And Barzal doesn't play with Marchand+Pastrnak.

He had a lot of teammates disappear offensively in that round vs TB.

Not hard to imagine if they won game 7 instead of TB they handle MTL with ease.
 
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Patdud

Patdud

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Gonzothe7thDman said:
That's an interesting comment by Dom about Barzal not being able to lead a team to a Stanley Cup if he has to be "the guy".

Isles lost in a 1 goal game 7 against the reigning cup champs. Essentially it came down to a coin flip with Barzal being "the guy" for the Isles. Led his team in points not only in that series but in the playoffs as a whole. All of his points came at even strength as well.

Had as many even strength points in 7 games as Bergeron has in his past 11 playoff games vs TB. And Barzal doesn't play with Marchand+Pastrnak.

He had a lot of teammates disappear offensively in that round vs TB.

Not hard to imagine if they won game 7 instead of TB they handle MTL with ease.
Click to expand...
Barzals "superstar" rookie year came as no2 to JT before he jumped ship, he's since become a 60 pt perimeter player that folds when the checking is tight
 
Gonzothe7thDman

Gonzothe7thDman

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Patdud said:
Barzals "superstar" rookie year came as no2 to JT before he jumped ship, he's since become a 60 pt perimeter player that folds when the checking is tight
Click to expand...

Folds when checking is tight but leads his team in the playoffs in points? Also leads his team in points as they go the distance vs the back to back cup champs with all of them being at even strength?

That makes complete sense.

Great analysis
 
DominicT

DominicT

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dom.hockey
Gonzothe7thDman said:
That's an interesting comment by Dom about Barzal not being able to lead a team to a Stanley Cup if he has to be "the guy".

Isles lost in a 1 goal game 7 against the reigning cup champs. Essentially it came down to a coin flip with Barzal being "the guy" for the Isles. Led his team in points not only in that series but in the playoffs as a whole. All of his points came at even strength as well.

Had as many even strength points in 7 games as Bergeron has in his past 11 playoff games vs TB. And Barzal doesn't play with Marchand+Pastrnak.

He had a lot of teammates disappear offensively in that round vs TB.

Not hard to imagine if they won game 7 instead of TB they handle MTL with ease.
Click to expand...

I wrote a long winded post here back in 2017-2018 about Barzal's "second time around" stats and how his production dipped when facing a team for the second and third time around. Got laughed at a lot hen I said his production would continue to drop as teams became more aware of him. The numbers speak for themselves.

I'm aware of what he did against Tampa. But did he get them over the hump? No he did not.

When Tavares left the Island, Isles fans were "We could never win with Tavares. He can't be the guy."

Islander fans are already saying that about Barzal and he's still with the franchise.

Of course, it's all opinion and that's my opinion, that's all. But I'm not using hindsight or recency bias here. It's exactly what I said before the Bruins called out Zboril's name at the draft.
 
Gonzothe7thDman

Gonzothe7thDman

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DominicT said:
I wrote a long winded post here back in 2017-2018 about Barzal's "second time around" stats and how his production dipped when facing a team for the second and third time around. Got laughed at a lot hen I said his production would continue to drop as teams became more aware of him. The numbers speak for themselves.

I'm aware of what he did against Tampa. But did he get them over the hump? No he did not.

When Tavares left the Island, Isles fans were "We could never win with Tavares. He can't be the guy."

Islander fans are already saying that about Barzal and he's still with the franchise.

Of course, it's all opinion and that's my opinion, that's all. But I'm not using hindsight or recency bias here. It's exactly what I said before the Bruins called out Zboril's name at the draft.
Click to expand...


I'll have to dig into those 2nd and 3rd time around stats as that would be very worrisome if I were an Isles fan. Luckily he's only 24 so time is on his side to change his approach if he really does struggle after a team gets a personal scouting report on him.

I have seen Isles fans propose moving on from Barzal as well for the same reasoning. I also remember Bruins fans and Maple Leafs fans saying you couldn't win a cup with Kessel playing a meaningful role (Which always surprised me as Kessel proved early he was a playoff performer) yet he has back to back cups to his name. Helps having Crosby and Malkin on your team but without Kessel they don't win those cups. One could argue he even deserved a Conn Smythe but that's a conversation for another topic.

I personally shy away from labeling a guy early in his career as the type of guy who won't lead a team to a cup as I immediately think of a guy like Iginla who was everything you want in your prototype playoff hockey player. Yet he has no cups to his name.

I do recognize his points dropping but I also recognize the coach he has and the type of system the Isles run that isn't very conducive to putting up gaudy offensive numbers.

I see in Barzals best season(PPG wise) under Trotz he averaged 20 minutes a game. Since that season he seems to hover around 18 minutes per game. I wonder how much of it is him not earning 20 minutes per game possibly? Or was there a change in strategy by Trotz to roll lines more evenly? That does explain some of the pt drop off.

I don't follow the Islanders that closely so I am mostly speculating on that stuff.

For all I know by the end of his career last season could be the closest Barzals Islanders get to a SCF round.

It will be interesting to see.
 
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DominicT

DominicT

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dom.hockey
Gonzothe7thDman said:
I'll have to dig into those 2nd and 3rd time around stats as that would be very worrisome if I were an Isles fan. Luckily he's only 24 so time is on his side to change his approach if he really does struggle after a team gets a personal scouting report on him.

I have seen Isles fans propose moving on from Barzal as well for the same reasoning. I also remember Bruins fans and Maple Leafs fans saying you couldn't win a cup with Kessel playing a meaningful role (Which always surprised me as Kessel proved early he was a playoff performer) yet he has back to back cups to his name. Helps having Crosby and Malkin on your team but without Kessel they don't win those cups. One could argue he even deserved a Conn Smythe but that's a conversation for another topic.

I personally shy away from labeling a guy early in his career as the type of guy who won't lead a team to a cup as I immediately think of a guy like Iginla who was everything you want in your prototype playoff hockey player. Yet he has no cups to his name.

I do recognize his points dropping but I also recognize the coach he has and the type of system the Isles run that isn't very conducive to putting up gaudy offensive numbers.

I see in Barzals best season(PPG wise) under Trotz he averaged 20 minutes a game. Since that season he seems to hover around 18 minutes per game. I wonder how much of it is him not earning 20 minutes per game possibly? Or was there a change in strategy by Trotz to roll lines more evenly? That does explain some of the pt drop off.

I don't follow the Islanders that closely so I am mostly speculating on that stuff.

For all I know by the end of his career last season could be the closest Barzals Islanders get to a SCF round.

It will be interesting to see.
Click to expand...
There could be an argument made for the Trotz effect, I won't deny that. But I turn to Anders Lee.

The season before Trotz arrived he scored 40 goals or .48 goals per game. The year prior he had .41 GPG.

In the 4 seasons with Trotz he has .34, .29, .44 and .38 GPG .

In the past 2 season his production is only off by a goal every 12 games and a goal every 10 games. His first season under Trotz was an outlier and the other three were hampered by injury and even then, he's not that far off from his best season (the last two seasons).
 
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Patdud

Patdud

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Gonzothe7thDman said:
Folds when checking is tight but leads his team in the playoffs in points? Also leads his team in points as they go the distance vs the back to back cup champs with all of them being at even strength?

That makes complete sense.

Great analysis
Click to expand...
5 of his 14 points in three games against theBruins after Carlo goes down with 10 games laying a goose egg. Matt Barzal didn't lead the isles to game 7 against the bolts, their 4 line team did.

great response chief
 
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