Pre-Game Talk: WEEK 24: Keep Rolling, @B-Lose, vs. BJs

[a mangy Meowth]

I think discussing Mikko staying or going right now is premature anyways. If they win another cup this year, I think you can kiss goodbye any idea that Rantanen will be moved, regardless of the perception of his contributions. I think if we have another early exit and he's a liability out there, maybe they'll begin to consider action.

That said, I hope he forces them to re-sign him by just playing at the level he's capable of instead of this ~90-95% effort junk we've watched all year.

 

[UncleRisto]

Valuing Lehkonen over Mikko is absurd…

Yeah, this is the kind of line of thinking that I have a problem with. If you have a player scoring 110 points and a player scoring 35 points and you need to cut cap, you cut freaking Jamie McGinn over here making 4.5M. Wipe my ass with your "there's more than points" at that point.

I know, I've heard the thing about trading Mikko for a haul and keeping defensemen and keeping your 30-point wingers. You can explore that, you absolutely can. But I haven't seen a good return being discussed yet. All I've seen is another Ryan O'Reilly trade.

People are allowed to see it differently though. This is just like, my opinion for now.

 

[henchman21]

I think there is a limit to Mikko where it practically would be better to move on, but realistically, the Avs are not making that move. IMO he's likely to be the highest paid Av for a short bit and if he isn't he'll be very close. From there you have to make roster decisions on how to build the team. Right now the Avs are wing heavy on their allocation when you include Landy. With the contracts today, the Avs are over 30m for next season for 6 wings, and this is prior to Mikko's raise. When he gets his raise, we are looking at 33-34m for those same 6 wings. Realistically, with this current cap, you can't average 5.5m per wing in the top 9 and have enough spending elsewhere. If there were multiple ELCs for centers and defensemen, maybe... but staring down the barrel of 38-40m on wings (Mikko with an additional 3.5m (12.75), LOC at 2.5, 4 current contracts at 20.125, Kovalenko at 2, and 1m) means there is a trimming that'll have to happen to pay for Mitts' raise (22 is probably the floor with 24 being the max between 3 centers) and keeping a top 4D together (25.75 locked in the top 4). We're roughly at 86m prior to a 4C, extra forward, bottom pairing D, extra D and goalies. If the Avs stay at ~4.5m for goalies. The other 4 spots have to be filled for <2m total, which just can't happen with the league minimums.

Where that trimming happens is up for debate, but you can't keep the wing spending this high without ELCs in impact areas at center and defense. Which basically says, Ritchie has to be 3C in 25-26 unless wings are cut.

Of note, Rants, G, Colton, Lehky, Nuke, Manson, Toews, and Landy all have variations of NTC/NMC. Colton and G's kick in July 1 (Colton's is a full NTC next season). Lehky's moves to 12 teams July 1 from full. Landy and Nuke's move to 12 in 2025. Mikko's is 9 team that'll likely turn full NMC upon signing an extension.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Are other teams somewhat aware of the Behrens situation? IE @henchman21 that you said it's however likely he takes himself to UFA.

I'd have traded him this deadline with that knowledge, but maybe his value is too low.

 

[henchman21]

Are other teams somewhat aware of the Behrens situation? IE @henchman21 that you said it's however likely he takes himself to UFA.

I'd have traded him this deadline with that knowledge, but maybe his value is too low.

All teams have an idea of these rumblings. IMO the Behrens situation is pretty clear... if the Avs won't burn a year/promise time, odds are he goes back and investigates his options next year. That doesn't mean it will happen, but the Avs will have to make concessions whether that be playing April 18th, getting 10+ games next year, maxed signing bonus, etc.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

All teams have an idea of these rumblings. IMO the Behrens situation is pretty clear... if the Avs won't burn a year/promise time, odds are he goes back and investigates his options next year. That doesn't mean it will happen, but the Avs will have to make concessions whether that be playing April 18th, getting 10+ games next year, maxed signing bonus, etc.

Yeah I'd have dusted his ass this deadline in that case.

Do you think there's any chance them moving Byram out has changed or will change his outlook on the situation here?

 

[Pokecheque]

Eh, burning a year in most situations saves money in the long run anyway. Give him some games, especially if it means you can maybe sit Cale for a spell here or there.

 

[henchman21]

Yeah I'd have dusted his ass this deadline in that case.

Do you think there's any chance them moving Byram out has changed or will change his outlook on the situation here?

I'm sure it helps... but there are definitely teams that would give him a run for a year if he went to UFA, so they have to convince him there is a path. What works against Behrens is he's the type of defender that not many teams desire. He's like G where he's a more defensive oriented small defender who makes his living in quick transition. About half the teams rule out those guys to begin with.... and the other half basically have to have those guys in a top 4 role to justify them. Almost nobody keeps them in bottom pairing roles. So his path is narrow and I think he realizes that. Which means having the best path to that middle pairing NHL role is probably the key to it all.

In other words, he wants to become Girard and not Victor Mete. Odds are against that happening here, so finding a place that can happen is paramount.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I'm sure it helps... but there are definitely teams that would give him a run for a year if he went to UFA, so they have to convince him there is a path. What works against Behrens is he's the type of defender that not many teams desire. He's like G where he's a more defensive oriented small defender who makes his living in quick transition. About half the teams rule out those guys to begin with.... and the other half basically have to have those guys in a top 4 role to justify them. Almost nobody keeps them in bottom pairing roles. So his path is narrow and I think he realizes that. Which means having the best path to that middle pairing NHL role is probably the key to it all.

In other words, he wants to become Girard and not Victor Mete. Odds are against that happening here, so finding a place that can happen is paramount.

Fair. Too bad for us, but can't really blame him I guess.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Balthazar]

I'm glad they give Justus the tougher matchup instead of CBJ.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I'm glad they give Justus the tougher matchup instead of CBJ.

Yeah time to see what he has in him.

 

[Chiarelli]

gifting points to the blues by playing Annunen so that they pass VGK is some 4D chess

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Mittelstadt looks like a guy in complete control every time he has the puck. No panic, a true joy to watch.

He good

 

[Raucherhusten]

gifting points to the blues by playing Annunen so that they pass VGK is some 4D chess

Absolutly. I want a three point game tonight, and i almost don't care who gets the bonus one. Strange feeling i tell ya ...

 

[LOFIN]

gifting points to the blues by playing Annunen so that they pass VGK is some 4D chess

It's almost like betting against your favourite team, a win-win situation no matter what! Either we win with Annunen, or St. Louis gets closer to Vegas.

 

[LOFIN]

I think discussing Mikko staying or going right now is premature anyways. If they win another cup this year, I think you can kiss goodbye any idea that Rantanen will be moved, regardless of the perception of his contributions. I think if we have another early exit and he's a liability out there, maybe they'll begin to consider action.

That said, I hope he forces them to re-sign him by just playing at the level he's capable of instead of this ~90-95% effort junk we've watched all year.

Yeah. I know this is a discussion forum and we kill time shooting the shit about the Avs, but I really feel that it's impossible to know what the future holds before these playoffs are done. We come up short, the FO will keep trying. We win, I can see them wanting to retain Mikko even while it might make more sense to move on from a cap perspective, because of his services for the team.

The playoffs will dictate so much. Because if we don't make a good run, I feel like Mikko having disappointing playoffs will play part of it and thus make it easier to move on from him. That said, he has so far always elevated in the playoffs, and I think he will do it this time as well.

 

[MarkT]

How many points would he have if he wasn't playing poorly? 150?

If Mikko gave 100% effort in both thinking and skating he'd be consistently in the conversation for the best player in the league.

I've been one of the most vocal persons about trading Mikko. I love the talent that he has, I even have his jersey.

The reason I want to be aggressive about it is because I don't think we can ice s cup contending team if we give Mikko 13M annually. It destroys the possibility to have depth.

I also think it's horrible asset management to let him walk as an UFA. We could get a kings ransom by trading him next summer - a lot of future pieces that could extend our window as young talent with ELCs/cheap contracts enter the roster. We'd also be able to sign a top six winger to replace him.

I hope everyone appreciates what Mikko brings but we live in a cap world. Of course if Landeskog LTIRetires we won't have problem with Mikko.

I agree with this except even if Landy LTIRetires I'd still want them to explore trades for Mikko.

I think discussing Mikko staying or going right now is premature anyways. If they win another cup this year, I think you can kiss goodbye any idea that Rantanen will be moved, regardless of the perception of his contributions. I think if we have another early exit and he's a liability out there, maybe they'll begin to consider action.

That said, I hope he forces them to re-sign him by just playing at the level he's capable of instead of this ~90-95% effort junk we've watched all year.

I would hope that this management group is smart enough not to make emotional decisions even if we win the cup. Honestly, winning the cup might be ideal for the idea of moving him, because everyone will be on a such a high that there won't be as much backlash if we move him. Meanwhile his value will be sky high after winning two cups as a top line winger.

I think there is a limit to Mikko where it practically would be better to move on, but realistically, the Avs are not making that move. IMO he's likely to be the highest paid Av for a short bit and if he isn't he'll be very close. From there you have to make roster decisions on how to build the team. Right now the Avs are wing heavy on their allocation when you include Landy. With the contracts today, the Avs are over 30m for next season for 6 wings, and this is prior to Mikko's raise. When he gets his raise, we are looking at 33-34m for those same 6 wings. Realistically, with this current cap, you can't average 5.5m per wing in the top 9 and have enough spending elsewhere. If there were multiple ELCs for centers and defensemen, maybe... but staring down the barrel of 38-40m on wings (Mikko with an additional 3.5m (12.75), LOC at 2.5, 4 current contracts at 20.125, Kovalenko at 2, and 1m) means there is a trimming that'll have to happen to pay for Mitts' raise (22 is probably the floor with 24 being the max between 3 centers) and keeping a top 4D together (25.75 locked in the top 4). We're roughly at 86m prior to a 4C, extra forward, bottom pairing D, extra D and goalies. If the Avs stay at ~4.5m for goalies. The other 4 spots have to be filled for <2m total, which just can't happen with the league minimums.

Where that trimming happens is up for debate, but you can't keep the wing spending this high without ELCs in impact areas at center and defense. Which basically says, Ritchie has to be 3C in 25-26 unless wings are cut.

Of note, Rants, G, Colton, Lehky, Nuke, Manson, Toews, and Landy all have variations of NTC/NMC. Colton and G's kick in July 1 (Colton's is a full NTC next season). Lehky's moves to 12 teams July 1 from full. Landy and Nuke's move to 12 in 2025. Mikko's is 9 team that'll likely turn full NMC upon signing an extension.

I honestly hope you're wrong. Both long and short term, I think re-signing Mikko is a mistake. It's clear that with him on the roster even next year, we'll have to decimate our depth, and that only gets worse if his salary goes up. Then long term we're dealing with an even slower Mikko into his 30s becoming a complete liability defensively, and perhaps continuing to try to deke and carry the puck long after he's lost the ability to do so. We've seen how good this team can be with depth, and with Mikko playing poorly (his last game notwithstanding) we're still a great team. I know people think we can't replace him, but if we can afford three player who score 50pts, 30pts, and 20pts, and all play well defensively, then I'd rather go with the three players than just Mikko.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Wood cemented on the 4th line. Tough times for the Miles.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Wood cemented on the 4th line. Tough times for the Miles.

I thought the 3rd line was Wood/Colton/Parise and the 4th line was Cogs/Trenin/Duhaime?

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Pokecheque]

Oh good if they call up Jiricek, Pascal will play him for like, ten minutes and probably bury him in the defensive zone for all of them.

 

[Avs9296]

I thought the 3rd line was Wood/Colton/Parise and the 4th line was Cogs/Trenin/Duhaime?

Duhaime and Wood switched spots for last game.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Yeah, this is the kind of line of thinking that I have a problem with. If you have a player scoring 110 points and a player scoring 35 points and you need to cut cap, you cut freaking Jamie McGinn over here making 4.5M. Wipe my ass with your "there's more than points" at that point.

I'm not touching the rest of your post but it's hard to take your opinion seriously when you compare Lehkonen to Jamie McGinn